Goh123, you can be in trouble if someone report the statement you make . Just a friendly advice.

Posted by Goh123 > 13 hours ago | Report Abuse

no undertable mof will no giving to approve

What Nasim said to the press can mean LTAT will dispense off Bstead holding and LTAT will increase assets allocation in fixed income investmen. But how are they going to do it ? One possibility is to privatize Bstead based on share exchange with minorities eg Bplant or Affin share for Bstead share on certain ratio. In this way, there is no cash outlay from LTAT. Once privatized, LTAT has free hand to strip the assets gradually to recover maximum cash for balancing its portfolio.
As such, I think privatization plan is not dead and buried. Just my view

@TheContrarian, I hope Goh123 doesn’t mean you bring bad luck . Hahaha…

Posted by Goh123 > 7 minutes ago | Report Abuse

thecontrarian. if u sell the price will up

We have to guess what LTAT will do with Bstead.

According to Nazim, the SAA framework is
“The key idea of the SAA framework is to move away from investing largely in illiquid assets into more liquid assets

LTAT’s portfolio is highly concentrated, with 30 per cent and 16 per cent of about RM10 billion of assets under management (AUM) exposed to Boustead Holdings Bhd and its subsidiaries and Affin Bank Bhd, respectively, both of which (Boustead Holdings and Affin Bank) are deemed highly illiquid and not generating as much income as before, according to the fund.

This is 3 month FCPO ie forward May 2022 price.

Spot price was $6,700 yesterday. Most small and mid cap plantation sell on spot month basis .

Posted by ocbc > 32 seconds ago | Report Abuse

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/palm-oil

RM$6000 now.

In the Starbiz, SOP’s cost of production for FY21 was $1,500 to $1,600 pmt CPO . For FY22, it is estimated to increase about 10 to 15% yoy. Most well managed plantations have cost of production around this level . Why so much hohahoha about fertilizer cost increase?
Even if CPO is $5,000, plantation will still make huge profits!

In the Starbiz, SOP’s cost of production for FY21 was $1,500 to $1,600 pmt CPO . For FY22, it is estimated to increase about 10 to 15% yoy.
Why so much hohahoha about fertilizer cost increase?
Even if CPO is $5,000, plantation will still make huge profits!

In the Starbiz, SOP’s cost of production for FY21 was $1,500 to $1,600 pmt CPO . For FY22, it is estimated to increase about 10 to 15% yoy. Bplant cost of production may be $200 higher due to lower average yield.
Even if CPO is $5,000, Bplant will still make huge profits!

In the Starbiz, SOP’s cost of production for FY21 was $1,500 to $1,600 pmt CPO . For FY22, it is estimated to increase about 10 to 15% yoy. I think well managed plantation like Taann has cost of production about the same level .
Even if CPO is $5,000, plantation will still make huge profits!

In the Starbiz, SOP’s cost of production for FY21 was $1,500 to $1,600 pmt CPO . For FY22, it expected it to increase about 10 to 15% yoy.
Even if CPO is $5,000, plantation will still make huge profits!

It is in the news that CPO export volume 1-15 March is over 10% higher than same period in Feb. Surely india and China are buying. CPO price now is more in line with other competing edible oil .

Timecom and SOP

Calvin, I follow your advice and ‘sapu kuat kuat’ yesterday.

CPO spot price still about $7,000 . Highly profitable for cepat as it sell on spot basis .

CPO spot price of about $7,000 is still highly profitable for Bplant. Bplant sell its CPO in spot market.

The well managed plantations’s realized CPO price for FY 2021 was about $4,300+ and achieved very high earnings . FCPO April was about $6,900 yesterday and spot price was even higher. Therefore, no need to be overly worried of the temporary CPO price correction. That’s just my view .

Sop’s realized CPO price for FY 2021 was about $4,500 and achieved very high earnings . FCPO April was about $6,900 yesterday and spot price was even higher. Therefore, no need to be overly worried of the temporary CPO price correction. That’s just my view .

HSplant’s realized CPO price for FY 2021 was about $4,400 and achieved very high earnings and dividend . FCPO April was about $6,900 yesterday and spot price was even higher. Therefore, no need to be overly worried of the temporary CPO price correction. That’s just my view .

The very well managed plantations’ realized CPO price for FY 2021 was $4,300+ and achieved very high earnings. FCPO April was about $6,900 and spot price is even higher. Don’t have to be overly worried of temporary price correction. That’s just my view .

TaAnn’s realized CPO price for FY 2021 was $4,300+ and achieved very high earnings. FCPO April was about $6,900 and spot price is even higher. Don’t have to be overly worried of temporary price correction. That’s just my view .

Titan scared shit and he started selling Taann from $3.20. Hehehe..

I pick Pchem, sop and Timecome

You hold a long term view based on the stock selection model .

@Fundamental Trader, I got your point . Thanks.

I think Tech stocks, consumer stocks , manufacturing stocks, etc will not do well amid hyperinflation, increasing interest rate , escalating /exorbitantly high raw materials and economic downturns in many big economies.

In your selections, I wonder if you are factoring in the present economic and geopolitical development.
These developments shall affect quite a few of your shortlisted 36 stocks in their yoy financial performance in next few qtrs.

This macik Zuraida simply shot only. Hahaha

It is LTAT that sell and the proceeds go back to LTAT’s bank account, not in politicians bank account . It is how LTAT helps the politicians that matters.
Posted by RJ87 > 11 hours ago | Report Abuse

It’s open secret that politician liquidates equity asset to finance political campaign. No need be shy about it.
———————————————
Johnzhang

Some time the selling is with other objective in mind , especially for politically linked stocks.
I shouldn’t say more .

Some time the selling is with other objective in mind , especially for politically linked stocks.
I shouldn’t say more .

Posted by RJ87 > 33 minutes ago | Report Abuse

LTAT long time no pay dividend dy. Finally got a cash cow to do that.

That is about 15x forward earning PE which is very fair .

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 1 day ago | Report Abuse

JP Morgan's Jeffrey Ng revised KLK's target price to RM40.00

And I believe these stock will continue to generate yoy earning growth at least for the next 2-3 qtrs.
(Note; for plantation stocks you can not judge by qoq earning growth because FFB production is with considerable seasonal factor)

The stocks that passed right up to your 5th steps are : Cepat, HSplant, inno,Kmloong, MHC, SOP and Utd plant. All these happen to be plantation stocks that generate a lot of free cash from operations yearly . And they are in very healthy net cash position .

NEW YORK (March 12): Investors are rushing to recalibrate their portfolios for a potentially extended period of elevated commodity prices, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparks eye-popping moves in raw materials that threaten to exacerbate inflation and hurt growth.

With the US economy already feeling the stress of a broad, post-Covid-19 boost in demand and a quick resolution to the West’s standoff with Russia in doubt, some investors are betting high commodity prices are likely to remain for the foreseeable future.

"This is a very unique environment that we’re in because you have both demand shocks and supply shocks to the system at the same time," said Eric Marshall, a portfolio manager at Hodges Capital.

Marshall believes demand for commodities is likely to remain strong even if geopolitical tensions ebb, fuelled by factors like electric car battery production, which requires metals such as copper and nickel. A US$1 trillion US infrastructure bill passed in November is increasing demand for steel, cement and other commodities, he said.

He is increasing his stake in steel producer Cleveland Cliffs Inc and agricultural companies Tyson Foods Inc and Archer Daniels Midland Co, while cutting positions in consumer companies most likely to feel the brunt of higher gas and commodities.

Matthew Schwab, portfolio manager of the Harbor Capital All-Weather Inflation Focus ETF, has increased his exposure to oil and metals futures. Prices for industrial metals are likely to stay high due to underproduction during the coronavirus pandemic, while oil companies appear content to trade lower production for higher prices, he said.

"You are able to see the signs of a commodity price rally in the lack of investment over the last decade," Schwab said.

Mark Khalamayzer, lead manager of the Columbia Commodity Strategy Fund, has increased his exposure to oil and agricultural commodities to the highest limits allowed by his fund prospectus, betting that the conflict in Ukraine will lead to prices spiralling higher.

NEW YORK (March 12): Investors are rushing to recalibrate their portfolios for a potentially extended period of elevated commodity prices, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparks eye-popping moves in raw materials that threaten to exacerbate inflation and hurt growth.

With the US economy already feeling the stress of a broad, post-Covid-19 boost in demand and a quick resolution to the West’s standoff with Russia in doubt, some investors are betting high commodity prices are likely to remain for the foreseeable future.

"This is a very unique environment that we’re in because you have both demand shocks and supply shocks to the system at the same time," said Eric Marshall, a portfolio manager at Hodges Capital.

Marshall believes demand for commodities is likely to remain strong even if geopolitical tensions ebb, fuelled by factors like electric car battery production, which requires metals such as copper and nickel. A US$1 trillion US infrastructure bill passed in November is increasing demand for steel, cement and other commodities, he said.

He is increasing his stake in steel producer Cleveland Cliffs Inc and agricultural companies Tyson Foods Inc and Archer Daniels Midland Co, while cutting positions in consumer companies most likely to feel the brunt of higher gas and commodities.

Matthew Schwab, portfolio manager of the Harbor Capital All-Weather Inflation Focus ETF, has increased his exposure to oil and metals futures. Prices for industrial metals are likely to stay high due to underproduction during the coronavirus pandemic, while oil companies appear content to trade lower production for higher prices, he said.

"You are able to see the signs of a commodity price rally in the lack of investment over the last decade," Schwab said.

Mark Khalamayzer, lead manager of the Columbia Commodity Strategy Fund, has increased his exposure to oil and agricultural commodities to the highest limits allowed by his fund prospectus, betting that the conflict in Ukraine will lead to prices spiralling higher.

Even as investors try to align their portfolios to expectations of higher raw materials prices, they are worried about how the rally in commodities could hurt growth.

The risk of a recession led by a sharp cutback in consumer spending rises the longer that oil prices stay high, said Robert Schein, chief investment officer, Blanke Schein Wealth Management.

"If oil prices stay well above US$100 per barrel for a few months, the consumer and economy can withstand this, but if US$100-plus oil prices last for more than six months, that's when we will see recession risk surge," he said.

Oil palm plantation in Malaysia DO NOT use Ammonia gas, Ammonium Nitrate or urea as Nitrogen fertilizer. They use Ammonium Sulphate (AS) or Ammonium Chloride (AC) . AS is a byproducts from caprolactum factories and steel mills in many countries including China, Japan, Korea, Europe. AC is a byproduct of soda ash production mainly in China. AS and AC prices have gone down by 40-50% recently as compared to prices in Dec 2021 due to higher availability as the production of the main products (caproluctum, soda ash ) increased after winter/CNY festive season. AS and AC are not products of oil and gas.
The softer Nitrogen fertilizer price help to offset some of the impact from potentially higher potash price, I don't believe that the north American Potash producers can have absolute pricing power in potash amid Russian-Ukraine war.
Potash from belarus and russia are mainly shipped from St Petersburg via baltic sea which is not a war zone. All the potash volume sold by belarus and russia to US and Europe will be available to Asian buyers at a discount and displacing the north american producer market share in Asia. In the end, the American and European farmers get squeezed by the North American producers and Asia farmers enjoy price advantage from belarus/russia.

Fertilizer shortage does not affect oil palm plantation as much as it severely affect the short term seasonal edible oil crop like soya. Oil palm is very hardy perennial crop and with good amount nutrients reserve in plant tissues and in the ground . Oil palm withstand or survive years of zero fertilizers , months of draught, haze etc. Soya, corn and other short term seasonal crop can not.
As such, shortage of fertilizer or at exorbitant price shall give relative advantage to palm oil as it further tighten supply of competing oil.

Factoring in higher fertilizer prices, the cost of production for well managed plantation is in the range of $1,650 - $1,950 per mt of CPO. There is huge margin buffering any increase of input costs , any correction of CPO price or drop in production. Don't blur yourself with some of the challenges in the industry and you will just miss out the great opportunity to profit from this unprecedented development in edible oil market.

For future prices, go to Bursa website under derivatives.

Thomas, you can read the daily spot CPO price update by MPOB daily basis via below link. Many years data are also available.

https://bepi.mpob.gov.my/admin2/price_local_daily_view_cpo_msia.php?more=Y&jenis=1Y&tahun=2022
Posted by Thomas Chan Yeu Wai > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse

Hi peeps, can share which source you track palm oil price? today i try to search, market insider says RM7,715. Then MPOB showing RM6,961. Confused.

Max2838,
It is not true that potash price has tripled since Dec 2021. Can you share how you get this kind of news ?
The potash price difference between Q4 2021 and Q1 2022 is merely USD30/mt or RM130/mt.
Plantation apply about 450kg/ha of potash per year. The cost increase due to higher price of potash is only (($130 x 0.45 mt )/ 4 mt CPO/ha )) = $15/mt CPO .
Most plantations have already locked in 60-70% of their 2022 fertilizer requirement thru' tenders a few months ago.
North America Potash producers have recently announced their intention to increase price by USD250-300 pmt by taking advantage of the shipment difficulty from Belarus/Russia amid the war. If this come thru' it will only affect the remaining 30-40% requirement for 2022. However, i don't think the North America potash producer wish will last as Potash shipment out of Baltic sea will quickly resume to Asia to challenge the American producer in the next 1-2 months.
The smallholders are worst affected by price increase as they procure on spot basis.



Posted by Max2838 > 4 hours ago | Report Abuse

On oil palm plantations,
Prices have peaked in 1st qtr of year.
Production are higher in 2nd & 4th qtrs of year.
Fer
Fertilisers are the largest cost factor and input to plantations.
Potash prices has tripled since Dec 2021.
Potash fertilisers are the main input & highest cost factor for crop yields.
Russian (3rd) & Belarus(2nd) produce more potash than Canada(1st).

Make your bets whether earnings in plantations will grow further...

Uncle is very confused of himself . Didn't he repeatedly said the powerful tool to move share price is EARNING ?? Why is he not looking at earning parameters ?
Market cap/ha value doesn't necessary mean the plantation is cheap! The true value of the plantation assets lies on the following factors :
(1) Earning capacity of the plantation land which again highly dependent on soil type/condition, topography, health of the bearing palms etc.
(2) Realisable market value of the land which relate to locality and potential development value

For simplicity, let me just compare the various important parameters of Jtiasa and Bplant which is an average plantation:
Planted area jtiasa : 69,589 ha
Planted area Bplant : 73,500 ha (including non bearing immature area)
Own FFB production Jan -Dec 2021 jtiasa : 727,162 mt
Own FFB production Jan -Dec 2021 Bplant : 923,408 mt
FFB yield/ha jtiasa (727,162/69,589) = 10.45 mt/ha
FFB yield/ha Bplant (923,408/73,500) = 12,56 mt/ha
BPLANT'S YIELD/HA IS 20% HIGHER THAN JTIASA.

Oil extraction rate (OER) Jtiasa : 18.1%
OER Bplant : 21.1%
BPANT'S OER IS 16.6% HIGHER

EPS Jan-Dec 2021 jtiasa : 6.98 sen
EPS Jan-Dec 2021 Bplant : 10.77 sen
BPLANT's EPS is 54.3% HIGHER

Dividend FY2021 jtiasa : 0
Dividend FY 2021 Bplant : 8.35 sen/share

Realisable value for all the land of Bplant in west Malaysia of about 30,000 ha is many times higher than Jtiasa land in the remote area in sarawak. About 10,000 ha of Bplant's land in west malaysia at the fringe of or near towns commands commercial value of $600,000 to $1mil/ha . Half of Malakoff estate in Seberang prai was sold at about $1 per ha a few years ago. in 2021, 680 ha of kulai estate was sold $429mil or $622,000 per ha.
These 10,000 ha of Bplant's land with development value (say value at avg 700,000/ha ) is equivalent to 140,000 ha of poor yielding plantation in the remote sarawak. (poor yielding plantation in sarawak fetch about $50,000/ha ).

My intention is not to promote Bplant over jtiasa. It simply to share the facts for the benefit of investing public. All data presented by me in the above can be easily verified.

Don?t panic to see day to day or week to week price movements. It is very normal.
CPO for March and April still about $7,500!
FY2021 average was only about $4,400 and plantations earnings surged.
Between $7,500 and $4,400, this is huge cushion of $3,100 !

Posted by VincentTang > 27 minutes ago | Report Abuse

FCPO price start drop

Local IBs still overly conservative on plantation/CPO like they have been for past 2 years . Taann worth much more .

Posted by pang72 > 14 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Taann tp6. 4 by rhb..

Hahaha... don't know what to say about this old man. Now he mentions Jtiasa.
With no offense to Jtiasa's investors , from my knowledge Jtiasa is also not the well managed plantation company. Its timber/plywood business also show poor performance in most years.
The better managed pure plantation companies are SOP, Hsplant, KMloong, MHC/Cepat, swkplant, KLK, Utd plant etc. Taann which is like Jtiasa having timber/plywood business is much more superior than Jtiasa.
Bplant is also more superior than Jtiasa.

Hi Philip, very true that Pchem will benefit from its 2 mil mt urea capacity. Pchem bigger business is in other oil derivatives such as polymer, ammonia etc, So ,watch out for the performance of this segment too.
May be you can look into pure fertilizer producers listed oversea such as Nutrien and Mosaic in NYSE and K+S in Dax. Nutrien and mosaic are huge fertilizer producers in N, P and K fertilizers . Whereas K+S specialize in K and Mg fertilizers. All are big global reputable players . Though their share price has run up since Ukraine war, they are still trading at low PE and expect to reap huge profit this year . Just to share

Mistry is an Indian buyer. Obviously trying to talk tge market down.

Therefore you may take that the cost of production for FY2022 is $1,650 to $1,950 pmt CPO

One of the main components in cost of production is fertilizer. Fertilizer price has gone up substantially in 2021 and small rate of increase in 2022. Labour and other management cost which has lower weightage has always been relatively stable with 3-5% increase per year.
Base on prevailing prices of fertilizer, I estimated that the cost of production for FY 2022 will be $250 - $300 pmt CPO higher than 2020.

For example,
1. HSplant?s cost of production in 2019 was $1,482 pmt CPO . Whereas, it jump to $1,682 due to considerable drop in yield per ha in 2020.
2. Bplant who we all know is not the most efficient plantation ( yield of 3.2 mt CPO/ha) has its cost of production at $1,649 in 2020 as compared to kLK?s $1,300+.