I expect SOP to break $8 soon.
EPS FY2021 is almost 90 sen on the back of realised CPO price at about $4,500.
Forecast EPS FY2022 based on $5,500 CPO assumption will be $1.10.

This laggard will catch up once dividend is announced. It should cross $2 soon. Added some at $1.24 this morning.

Mutts, you are NOT dreaming. The multiple threats to edible oil supply is real.
There are so much challenges to produce more edible oil. wild weather itself is a big problem. Supply hiccups for fertilizers and herbicides
i.e. Glyphosate which are essential for GMO crops will hamper production too. I think more soya and corn farmers may switch to planting wheat which require less fertilizers and herbicide and at the same time enjoying high returns. As such, supply of edible oil crop will further be capped.



Posted by MuttsInvestor > Feb 28, 2022 2:20 AM | Report Abuse

I am seeing a "confluence" of FACTORS that are going to PUSH .. CPO prices really high. Maybe I am dreaming but ...... a) War in Europe b) World Weather patters impacting Planting and Growth of eatable oils. c) High Crude OIL/COAL/gas prices d) Shortage of RAW materials for Fertilizers d) Countries limiting exports ( indonesia and Russia ) of eatable oils ??? e) ..... Uncertainly of EUROPE ......... ?? ..... Interesting Times ahead.

EPF's aggressive selling in Simeplant in Feb for a total of about 46mil share has somewhat limit the share price increase. When EPF stop selling, Simeplant will easily cross $6.

Pokerpro88, There is big difference between running down on people and pointing out misinformation or misleading information for the interest of general public. Hope you don’t take both the same .
————————————————————————-

Posted by pokerpro88 > Feb 27, 2022 8:56 PM | Report Abuse

Johnzhang First of all thank you for "looking out for the little money I have" and I see fine. I do not disagree with your numbers and analysis on cpo and hence thats why cpo stocks are already flying. I do not even own hextar but would consider buying it. My point is this forum is for sharing of info and not to run down or put down peolple's opinion

Pokerpro88,
I suppose you are a big investor in Hexind. I had no intention to spoil your soup. I am just sharing information that i personally know in a public forum befitting to the title of the blog . So, what are you so angry about ?

Hexind was renamed from SCH Group bhd in 2021. In 2018, in a corporate exercise, PK fertilizers was injected into the group , I supposed is was for the intention of boosting turnover only. You must go to check what's SCH core business and expertise prior to 2018.

Let's talk about fertilizer !. In FY2020 and 2021, fertilizer sales was only $81 mil compared to $7.0 - 7.5 bil market size in Malaysia. Its market share is a tiny 1.1% that the market don,t even noticed it is a fertilizer player.

Let's look at financial numbers :
FY2021 EPS was 0.68 sen , PAT margin 1.6%
FY2019 EPS was 2.4 sen , PAT margin 4.7%
FY2018 EPS was 1.02 sen , PAT margin 4.1%
EPS and PAT margin decline substantially in FY2021.

In 2021, fertilizer prices were HIGHER between 50 to 100% compared to previous years. Let me ask you a simple question : Did the company make more money in FY2021 when fertilizer prices rocketed ? Clearly NO! Then, what makes you think that the company will benefit from further price increase due to Ukraine-russian war ?

I only share things that I know very well including plantation business. Can you tell me what have I shared about plantation that do not hold water ? I share my knowledge in plantation since 2020 and isn't all what i share come true ?

Don't be blind and lose the little money you have.

The real direct beneficiaries are palm oil , oil & gas Upstream producers. Aluminium and steel companies will also benefit to some extent

Did you do a thorough check if Hexind and Ancom are in fertilizer business?? Pls do so before you post .
As far as I know , Hexind is a small trading outfit for industrial chemicals, nothing to do with fertilizer. For Ancom, it core business is Agricultural chemical eg herbicide, insecticide etc. Ancom benefited a lot from one herbicide that they manufacture and the product price has surged considerably.

If I were the Mahs, I would take Cepat and MHC private now at undervalued price . Hahaha

FY2021 EPS is 16.38 sen. based on historic PE 10X, price should be $1.64.
Forecast EPS FY2022 is about 20sen. based of forwaed PE, it is $2.00.
By end Apr/early May, company will declare dividend and hopefully it is at least 50% payout.

HSplant should surpass the previous high of $3.72 soon in view of best ever earning expected in FY2022 and consistent dividend payout. Forecast EPS 2022 is 35-38 sen.

by Jared Strong
The Russian invasion of Ukraine this week might drive up the costs of farm fertilizers globally and presents an opportunity for unscrupulous companies to artificially inflate those prices further, according to U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack.

“That’s my biggest and deepest concern,” Vilsack said Thursday of the invasion’s immediate effects on U.S. agriculture, “and we’re obviously going to keep an eye on that.”

What is going on with fertilizer prices?
Last year’s fertilizer price spike has been attributed to a confluence of issues, including shortages of natural gas and limited fertilizer stockpiles.

Russia is a major global supplier of farm fertilizers and is the source of about a third of Europe’s natural gas.
Commodity supplies at risk as Russia invades Ukraine
Russia had already begun to limit its fertilizer exports late last year and recently imposed a two-month export moratorium on ammonium nitrate, a key fertilizer for corn.

In November, Iowa farmers faced fertilizer price quotes that were three to six times higher than the previous year. That has led to speculation that farmers will plant fewer acres of corn and reduce the amount of fertilizer they apply to their fields. The planting season is about two months away.

Dear Mr OTB,
I am absolutely convinced that all palm oil stocks will do very well in 2022. Share price has room to go much higher supported by robust earnings and dividends. Thank you.

Posted by OTB > Feb 26, 2022 11:39 AM | Report Abuse

Dear Johnzhang,

Do not worry, palm oil stocks will perform very well.
I had done an analysis on all good palm oil stocks, you can get it from any of my subscribers.

I cannot post it in I3 to avoid naysayers to attack me.
Thank you.

Analysts keep saying CPO price could not sustain ever since CPO reached $3,000 some 2 years ago!
They gave neutral rating to plantation when CPO were $2,500, and same neutral rating when CPO reached over $6,000 . Just ignore those crooks and unprofessional analysts!

Posted by Lukesharewalker > Feb 26, 2022 3:34 PM | Report Abuse

Analysts seem to perceived this is the peak and its downhill from here...

The best for plantation stock is yet to come.
Q1 and Q2 2022 will show explosive yoy earnings!

Posted by OTB > Feb 25, 2022 9:06 PM | Report Abuse

Bplant - QoQ -11%, YoY 210%
KLK - QoQ -4%, YoY 68%
SWKPlnt - QoQ -23%, YoY 100%

All naysayers are telling big lies here.
The above 3 stocks are performing very well.
Who is so smart to say that QoQ drops, the share price cannot perform.
Please do not bullshit in front of me. Posted by OTB > Feb 25, 2022 9:06 PM | Report Abuse

Bplant - QoQ -11%, YoY 210%
KLK - QoQ -4%, YoY 68%
SWKPlnt - QoQ -23%, YoY 100%

All naysayers are telling big lies here.
The above 3 stocks are performing very well.
Who is so smart to say that QoQ drops, the share price cannot perform.
Please do not bullshit in front of me.

Posted by OTB > Feb 25, 2022 9:22 PM | Report Abuse

Bplant - QoQ -11%, YoY 210%
KLK - QoQ -4%, YoY 68%
SWKPlnt - QoQ -23%, YoY 100%

The above 3 stocks are performing very well.
Who is so smart to say that QoQ drops, the share price cannot perform.
Please do not bullshit in front of me.

Posted by OTB > Feb 25, 2022 9:22 PM | Report Abuse

Bplant - QoQ -11%, YoY 210%
KLK - QoQ -4%, YoY 68%
SWKPlnt - QoQ -23%, YoY 100%

The above 3 stocks are performing very well.
Who is so smart to say that QoQ drops, the share price cannot perform ?
Please do not bullshit in front of me.

Hahaha... Urusharta CEO is sleeping kah ?

No point switching from one steel counter to another steel counter. Go plantation!

I suggest all to liquidate Steel share and switch all to plantations. It’s definitely better bet .

Everything go higher in rising tide . Hahaha

Based on HL prospect PE of 18 times for big cap , klk should fetch $54
Ie 18 x FY 2022 EPS $3.

Uncle k is just as hopeless!

HL today assigned prospective PE of FY2022 of 10 to midsize plantation.
On this basis Ta Ann TP is a lot higher than $6. Patience is the key while more IBs are admitting their failure and start making buy calls for plantation.

https://newswav.com/A2202_LmTqOP?s=A_4mYhvK1

After seeing superb Q4 results, brokers and investment bankers shall upgrade plantation to strong buy soon.

“Another likely winner is plantation” where HLIB has an "overweight" call for the sector.

They are people who happy with a few % profit . It’s normal for some profit taking. More importantly this share shall go higher in the mid term.

He is quietly buying.

if payout 50%, the dividend shall be 11sen/share. Pray for the Directors to come to their senses to reward shareholders in view that FY2022 earnings will even be better.

Though FY2021 results are very good, the best will come in 2022 especially 1st half.

Good result! Hope MNRB will deliver good numbers too.

SOP's FY2021 EPS of 89.44sen is achieved on the back of average realised CPO price of $4,560.
In the likely event of CPO price averaging $5,500 for FY2022, EPS will surge by estimated 30% . Forecast EPS for FY2022 is $1.16.
Forward PE is therefore only 4.6X based on yesterday's closing.
Damn cheap!

Bstead will catch up once it resume dividend payment.

FY2021 EPS 16.4sen yet share price is below $1.!
Unbelievable !

Q4 2021 EPS 7.41 sen and FY 2021 21.26 sen beat my expectation.
Dividend will be announced in Apr/May as usual.
PE is only 5.6X
At historic PE of 15, this share worth $3.20
Earning for FY2022 will be explosive.

What more to say about the stunning results.
Q4 EPS of 36.44sen far exceed my expectation.
FY2021 EPS of 89.44 sen is marvelous . PE based on today closing is only 6x !
Divdend is usually announced in end Apr/May.

Best yet to come!

Q4 2021 EPS 22.40 sen , up 44% YOY
FY2021 EPS 88.30 sen is excellent. PE is 5.7X is just too cheap.
Good dividend of 20sen.

Q1 2022 is expected to be explosive due to robust crude price, increased demand and high crack spread. Hold on to it.

TheContrarian, glad to see that you are on top of it. My memory is failing me .

@ 12 noon
FCPO march +$263 to $6,769
FCPO Apr +$269 to $6,522
Many countries are scrambling to secure enough edible oil/food in the wake of Ukraine-Russia war ? There is no additional supply !

Buy the dip from the panic sellers.

@ 12 noon
FCPO march +$263 to $6,769
FCPO Apr +$269 to $6,522
Many countries are scrambling to secure enough edible oil/food in the wake of Ukraine-Russia war ? There is no additional supply !

Buy the dip from the panic sellers.

@ 12 noon
FCPO march +$263 to $6,769
FCPO Apr +$269 to $6,522
Many countries are scrambling to secure enough edible oil/food in the wake of Ukraine-Russia war ? There is no additional supply !

Buy the dip from the panic sellers.

@ 12 noon
FCPO march +$263 to $6,769
FCPO Apr +$269 to $6,522
Many countries are scrambling to secure enough edible oil/food in the wake of Ukraine-Russia war ? There is no additional supply !

Buy the dip from the panic sellers.

FCPO march +$199 to $6,750
FCPO Apr +$192 to $6,445
Many countries is scrambling to secure enough edible oil in the wake of Ukraine-Russia war ? There is no additional supply !

FCPO march +$199 to $6,750
FCPO Apr +$192 to $6,445
Many countries is scrambling to secure enough edible oil in the wake of Ukraine-Russia war ? There is no additional supply !

FCPO march +$199 to $6,750
FCPO Apr +$192 to $6,445
Many countries is scrambling to secure enough edible oil in the wake of Ukraine-Russia war ? There is no additional supply !

FCPO march +$199 to $6,750
FCPO Apr +$192 to $6,445
Many countries is scrambling to secure enough edible oil in the wake of Ukraine-Russia war ? There is no additional supply !

@Contrarian, you are right. I looked at Axa/Affin as one unit.
Axa Affin General Insurance (AAGI) and Axa Affin Life Insurance (AALI) are about 50-50 owned by AXA and Affin respectively.
Assuming no other thing is involved, Affin may get about $275mil for divesting 20% stake in AAGI and AALI to Generali (Axa's $688 mil is for about 50% shareholding in AAGI and AALI).
Thus ,the theoretical consideration for MPI is $1,29 bil minus $688 mil minus $275 mil = $327 mil. This is lower than the 49% sold in a few years ago. Without further information , we are only guessing if Affin's portion is $275 mil. Affin's portion may be smaller then $275mil as they will be 30% owner of the enlarged/merged entity with Generali.

In any case, MPHBcap cash pile alone will be more than its present share price. No forgetting all the valuable landbank and property .

Hope to reap very good return in this share soon.

FY 2021 ending 30/9/21 ; Plantation division PBT was $101 mil (2020 $26 mil) , an increase of whopping 288! . The increase is based on FY2021 average realised CPO of merely $2,945.
FY 2022 : PBT contribution from plantation may exceed $180 mil due to much higher average realised price expected from Oct 21 to Sept 22 (Financial period).
All palms are at the prime years and yielding an average of 27.4 mt/ha of FFB compared to industry average of 20mt/ha. Very efficient planter.
Total FFB production FY 2021 was 441,000 MT equivalent to about 90,000 MT CPO which is significant.
NA is $2.95. The share is presently trading at 0.5X book value .
Strong cashflow, +$207 mil net cash from operations in FY 2021.
Property/housing development shall improved tremendously from FY2022.

Teh, pls share with us the rationale why you think so. To my understanding you can not book disposal gain until the transaction is concluded with payment received.

Posted by Teh Kieat Keoi > Feb 24, 2022 8:39 AM | Report Abuse

i think rm557,319,000 already included disposal gain rm250,000,000, no need repeat to plus up.