@Thecontrarian, of course I do take profit when I feel the prices have run up near my TP at certain point of time . For this year alone I have taken satisfactory level of profit for LCtitan, CMSB, E&O, Cypark, MFlour, scicom, pelikan and a few others . For some of the above I have recently re-entered as they have come off significantly .
There are stocks that I took losses too.
MMC and Ijmplant are ripe for harvesting with very handsome gain anytime I wish for capital redeployment.
I am very passionate about Bstead, Bplant, MNRB, MPHB , WCE and few others plantations counters which I have yet to sell a single share as I hold the view that theirs potential is a lot more higher at certain point .
On hind sight , few other stocks that I should have taken profit include OSK, KPS etc .
So , you see I made some right decisions and some wrong decisions too. I am happy if the right decisions outweigh the wrong one .
I am not in active trading or reading the charts . It’s simply not what I can do well .
Just for sharing my experience.

@TheContrarian, Hahaha..
Your disciple trying to copy and disseminate your philosophy to the investing public.

Be a Contrarian is a wise move that will most likely assure you good return eventually. My contrarian philosophy is simple : accumulate the undervalued and fundamentally strong stocks (especially stock with impending corporate activity) when others are selling amid very weak market we are going thru now. I will continue to accumulate this stock when price dip .

Can anyone advise what is the direct impact on NA and EPS upon full settlement of the $828 mil? Per financial report 31/12/2020, there is $640 mil assets and $693 mil liabilities with respect to this project still sitting in the group accounts.

I strike another jackpot?

I don't think there is any good reason for the Board to reject this proposal without letting disinterested shareholders to vote as the offer is not totally unfair. I think we should be more concern if SM is genuine in the offer .

OMG! I don't believe he has gone down so low to write something like this ! He must be damn frustrated!

@NorazimAR, fully agreed with your view. My estimate for Q2 2021 NPAT is around $55 mil or 2.5sen per share . Based on 60% dividend policy , we may expect 2nd interim dividend of 1.5 sen along with 2Q result announcement.

On the intrinsic value of the company, it is easily above $2 per share . 98,212 ha of plantantion land at conservative price of 60,000 per ha worth about $5.9 bil . The book value as at 31/2/20 for the landbanks together with the plant and equipment is $3.93bil. The differential between realisable value and book value is nearly $2bil in excess or 87sen per share. The prospective NA value is therefore $1.16 +0.87 =$2.03 per share .

The price per Ha of $60,000 I used in the calculation is very very conservative which is at the lowest end of the most recent deals ( NPC , TSH) for leasehold plantation East Malaysia. Bplant's about 30,000 ha in West Malaysia , which are mainly freehold should worth a lot more than $60,000 per ha. I must note here that part of malakoff estate in the north was sold at about $980,000 per ha a couple of years ago. Bplant has many such freehold land with development value in West Malaysia.

Interestingly, a few plantation companies newly emerged in the top 30 shareholders this year : NSOP, Chin Teck , Eng Thy Plantation.
These guys know how undervalued is Bplant.

Yesterday appointed New CEO, Zainal Abidin, a financial guy with wide experience as CFO in a few organizations, is probably the right guy brought in to realized the true value of Bplant.

$1.20 is high? It’s all depend how you look at it and how much you understand it’s intrinsic value.
When MMC was 70-80 sen most of the time last year , a $2 TP was unthinkable ! Even the experts or analysts gave TP of $1.20-1.30.

@Goh123, Many smart investors would have cash out at 50 + sen giving 70% profit .

Leng, I am looking at $1.20

Per 31/12/2020 , accumulated loss at company level is $250 mil. The gain on disposal is $185 mil which is not sufficient to offset the accumulated loss . Logically the company still can’t pay dividend unless share consolidation or capital reduction happens. Can anyone comment?

Many dare not buy Pelikan at 30 sen. When the news about pelikan disposing an asset worth more than its market capitalization leaked to the market many scrambling to buy pelikan even up to 55 sen. I think there is a lesson we all can learn from pelikan episode!

Many dare not buy Pelikan at 30 sen. When the news about pelikan disposing an asset worth more than its market capitalization leaked to the market many scrambling to buy pelikan even up to 55 sen. I think there is a lesson we all can learn from pelikan episode!

Many dare not buy Pelikan at 30 sen. When the news about pelikan disposing an asset worth more than its market capitalization leaked to the market many scrambling to buy pelikan even up to 55 sen. I think there is a lesson we all can learn from pelikan episode!

Many dare not buy Pelikan at 30 sen. When the news about pelikan disposing an asset worth more than its market capitalization leaked to the market many scrambling to buy pelikan even up to 55 sen. I think there is a lesson we all can learn from pelikan episode!

I don’t think the political development now will necessarily derail what Bstead plan to do with Bplant. Whoever in power shall give blessing to the rationalisation plan to turnaround Bstead and Bplant for the welfare of the arm forces .

@opportunate, there is always 2 sides of a coin to look at. Someone panic sell means someone else lucky buy.

@PSAi3alert, yes , MMC is a significant portion of my 3M portfolio (MMC, MNRB,MPHB). Not that I like SM, I like his money . Hahaha..

@Mutts, I can’t think of any successful Bumi individual who owns sizeable plantation other than SM. All other GLCs plantations companies have their plate very full and unlikely to have resources to take over Bplant. Just my guess.

LTAT and Bstead have to do something right to shore up performance and hence valuation. The members from military who used to enjoyed good dividend are running out of patience. Based on this logic , I started accumulating Bstead from 55 sen and Bplant from 35 sen since last year . I have yet to sell a single share since then.

If a bumi buyer emerges, one possible candidate is tradewind plantation owed by syed Mokhtar?

At least , the management is taking right steps forwards. The disposal will result disposal gain and put the company in healthier financial position. Value in Bplant will gradually emerge!

I guess selling a portion of the estates (like what NPC and TSH is doing) is more likely. Too much political sensitivity or backlash to deal with for disposing Bplant as one piece, unless the buyer is GLC or bumi company.

@Karlos, agreed with you that Bstead’s balance sheet don’t look good. . I believe all the negative factors about Bstead are reflected in the dismal share price already. For tfe privatization, the ball is at LTAT’s feet. The privatization will materialize if LTAT believes that a lot of value can be extracted . I think most of the assets in the group are something deep pockets companies are eager to acquire above book value.

@huatio, I think so. Per past years accounts, LTAT has zero borrowing. They only invest the funds from members. The borrowings are at the subsidiaries level. To privatize Bstead at $1/- per share , LTAT needs to find about $820 million. I think it is not difficult for LTAT to borrow temporarily for such sum from financial institutions against the shares LTAT hold in the many public listed entities. After privatization and follow by monetisation of some assets held by Bstead , the borrowing can be repaid.

@huatio, I think it is not a requirement that the digital banking license can only be issued to listed company. Bstead apply for the license under a new consortium entity comprising a few partners. Therefore, Bstead can still be privatized if LTAT decide to go ahead.

As Bplant is probably the most undervalued plantation, I believe LTAT will do something to realize its value.one day

Non bumi plantation group to buy over Bplant as a whole is highly unlikely due to political sensitivity. Privatization of Bplant to take it out of public limelight is possible and sensible . After privatization , they can monetize a portion of the estate or valuable landbank to pare down debts.

IoI is offering to buy a portion of the plantations owned by NPC . It is not buying the whole company.

Fully agreed . Follow your gut and be guided by your own investment strategy. How deeply a stock is undervalued is very relative . If some other good stock dropped 30% recent, this would narrow the relative valuation gap and MPHB would therefore relatively not as cheap as before. It’s benchmarking to the overall market performance too. I

@mfbs, you mean rubbish is nice ? Hehehe..

@Carlos and TheContrarian, thanks for responding.

I am amused to see a few fellows keep yelling rubbish in this forum without anything constructive to share. Don’t you think you too are rubbish for for staying in your perceived ‘rubbish bin’ . Hehe….

Operating +investing cashflow of Bstead at group level is as below :
Q1 2021. +$199 mil (90 mil required for interest servicing )
FY 2020. +$288 mil. ( 414 mil for interest servicing )
FY 2019 + $883 mil (424 mil for interest servicing )
Based on above , I think Bstead can still manage the loan servicing and obligations.
What bstead needs to do quicken is monetising the non-performing and non core assets .
Just how I read it .

The coupon rate can increase gradually over years to reach a limit provided all the terms are predetermined at the time of issue . To avoid paying increasing cost , the issuer can redeem and refinance with other cheaper instruments. I remember bstead has redeemed already half of the perpetual bonds just 2 years ago . If bstead has good positive cash flow from operating and investment activities,, serving and gradual redemption of the expensive perpetual bonds shall not be an issue .

Appreciate if @Carlos can tell us where he get the information that perpetual bonds is due by this year . I far as I know perpetual bo Da has no maturity date ! Can Carlos also enlighten us where you get the information that interest rate can jump from 9.6% to 15%. As far as I know, bond coupon rate is fixed at the time of issue!

The perpetual bond is an instrument with NO maturity date . I think the call to redeem it only rest with the issuer , not the lender. For this reason , the coupon rate for perpetual bonds is usually higher than the term bonds. The issuer can decide to redeem perpetual bonds and refinance with lower interest instruments. The accounting rules in most countries require perpetual bonds to be classified as equity as it can be there as long as the company want it to be. In fact many conglomerates in Malaysian issue perpetual bonds which is safer in term of capital or cash flow perspective. Borrowing in any form , more so in the case of perpetual bonds , is not a problem by itself . Ability to service and repay the borrowing is the key . So, pay more attention to the cashflow statement to track if company generate good free cash flow or not .

@chkhooju, when life normalise from covid pandemic and number forecasting business is allowed to operate smoothly, Magnum share price is likely to recover to $2.30-2.40 which is the average price pre covid . Thus, there may be 15-20% capital gain based on Current price of $2/-.
EPS and Dividend may normalise to the average level of 16 sen per year (average from 2012-2019). DY will then be about 6+%.
The risk factor may be considerable: IRD slammed huge backdated tax bill on the company in 2017($476 mil) and 2019($144 mil). Although, the company may have finally settled at lower rate, the risk for the government to continue squeezing money from the company in future years can not be overlooked. I also think that there is no growth in this industry and infact , it is facing huge threat from the underground or online operators .
I personally do not own any Magnum or Btoto share for quite a few years. Amid very soft Malaysian stock market now,. they are many other sectors or stocks offering similar or higher potential capital and DY returns . Just my personal view .

@opportunate, I think uMobile will be either cash monetized or distributed to shareholders of Magnum upon listing. If cash monetized , all the cash will be paid out as special dividend to Magnum’s shareholders . It is unwise to keep cash reserve in a lottery company amid political uncertainty.

Correction for post above : he has privatized MWE (not WCE)…

SU is 76 years old and aging. He has a son and 2 daughters who are never in the limelight of the corporate world . He has privatized WCE. He will privatize MPHB as it is just too lucrative for him.
Magnum with political risk on gaming business is not attractive to be privatized , but will be the cash cow to be milked kau-kau for as long as possible.

But who will be the buyer ? Only the private plantation group owned by Chinese have the deep pocket to buy . Certain quarters will politicise the sales to non Malay buyers and government will succumb to the pressure. GLCs plantation group are all bed-ridden with huge debts and poor management .

Part 3 continues....

I would like to draw parallels between the 2 companies owned by SU in almost the same stake and have many similarities in shareholding structure. Ie MWE and MPHB. The financial comparison is based on MWE’s financial statement nearest to privatisation excercise . In the case of MPHB, it is based on projection after insurance sales.

1. SU who hold about 32.6% offered to privatise MWE by SCR for $1.75 in Mar 2018. Entitled shareholders owned 158.1 mil share and repayment amount to $277mil.

2. No share issued
MWE 233.2 mil
MPHB 715 mil

3. NA per share
MWE.$2.53
MPHB $2.90-3.00 ( as I said earlier based on projection after insurance sales
Note ; NA of MWE included the $256 mil investment in WCE (reported in BS as investment in associate) or $1.10 per share. Coincidentally, WCE price plunged shortly after MWE's privatisation offer made and lost about $0.23 per mwe share . Thus , NA of MWE before SRC closing was around $2.30 only

4.cash + investment securities
MWE $247 mil or $1.06 per share
MPHB $1,430 mil or $2.00! Per share
MPHB has double amount of cash and cash equivalents per share which is very superior.

5. Total financial liability ( payable + borrowing)
Mwe $204 mil , $0.87 per share
MPHB negligible

6. Highest share price traded
MWE around $2.00
MPHB around $2.70

7. SCR offer price over NBV
MWE $1.75/2.53 = 70%
Or. 76 % (1.75/2.30) if we account for mark to market loss in WCE
Note : NA of MWE is poorer quality than MPHB.

MPHB , if based on 70% NBV , SCR price =$2.00. - 2.10
MPHB. If based on 85 % NBV. SCR price is $2.50 -2.60
MPHB , if based on 100% NBV,SCR price is $2.90 - 3.00
MPHB certainly deserve much higher % due to 2/3 of NA in cash and cash equivalent and investment properties are of superior quality and deeply undervalued.

8. Reason for privatisation
MWE: following the disposal of the core and traditional garment/textile unit and the paging or lighting unit (?) , the remaining business of MWE was much smaller scale and prospect of the continuing business was challenging. The bulk of investment in WCE (initial at $1.35 per wce share) gave negative return over prolonged period and requiring heavy capital injection . (After MWE's SCR,. WCE called for heavy RI and MWE fully subscribed its portion. Share price of WCE today is still over 50% below MWE's cost of investment)

MPHB : following the disposal of the insurance unit which is the core business, the rest of the continuing business likewise very very small and challenging and loss making. As the operating environment is challenging for any new investment, privatisation is the best option (in the eye of controlling shareholder).

Part 3: Mgt attitude, business appetite and company's direction post insurance sales .
In this part , the material is more judgemental than factual. Readers must exercise own judgement which shall guide you in your investment decision. It is purely my own judgement to share , not intended to lure you into buying this stock.

1. As at 31/12/2020, total Cash+ Investment is $1.92 bil! ($1.39 bil of investment securities classified non-current as they are intended for holding 12 mths or longer as mgt explained). The cash and investment securities excluding those belonging to insurance unit is est $880 mil. Upon completion of the insurance sales, it will swell from $880 mil to $1.43 bil nett of debt or $2 per share !

2. The company which hold >51% of insurance is classified as Financial holding company (FHC). Under the financial services act 2013, FHC is only allowed to engage in financial services business and hence MPHB requires BNM'S approval for venturing into non financial services business. Other restriction include capital adequacy to support the insurance business. Options available to MPHB is to meet BNM's requirements by divesting up to 51% ( hence no more FHC status) and beef up capital in the insurance unit to meet the regulations.

3. Instead, the company chose to divest 100% despite that insurance unit is the core revenue/profit contrbutor . The company is probably reluctant to inject substantially more capital into the insurance business.

4. Since listing in 2013, the only decision the Mgt and BOD did were CASH Monetization of assets giving rise to est $1.43 bil cash ( refer to point 1 ). Part of the cash realized is park in investment securities which are primarily bond, money market fund etc . NO new venture or expansion of existing business at all throughout the last 8 years , I presumed this is due on the restriction in point 2.

5. In all the AGM, when Mgt is asked by shareholders about the business plan and strategy for the valuable landbank, the reply has been consistently about capital preservation and monetization of the landbank/properties at the right price .

6. The existing property development business is JV with BRDB where the company contribute small parcel of land at Rawang and Gombak and in return received 22% GDV. Such business is going at very slow pace and going nowhere. There hospitality business thru flamingo is half death with no decision to upgrade or rejuvenation.

7. Post insurance disposal, is MPHB emerging as property developer ? I don't think so for reasons in point 6 and especially amid the very challenging property market for many years to come.

8. It appear to me that the BOD (of course under instruction from controlling shareholder) has no appetite to take on new business venture or to capitalize existing business. As such , post insurance sales , the company will be lack of core business or under PN17 (?) under the listing rules.

9. Privatisation seem imminent to me and controlling shareholders has all the reasons ( or excuses ) to do it ...

Part 3 to be continued..,,,

@Endgame, why do you deleted so many of your posting today ?

I started picking up some today....

Malaysian stock market in ICU present the excellent opportunity for controlling shareholders to privatise their companies cheaply!!

Paying $0.01 when cash per share is $0.60? The Yap fellow is too cunning and ungrateful to the minorities who have suffered huge capital loss for years . Of course he will keep it minimum to keep share price as low as possible for buybacks and eventual cheap privatisation! Ruthless!

@Endgame, you cannot even read between the lines what chkhooju means ! You are naive!