For Bstead and Bplant, I shall hold on to them until they 'ripen' like I have achieved for quite a few counters this and last year .

@TheContrarian, Agreed. I started picking up some and look out for more to come in a depressed Malaysian market. Once I cash out out MMC and IJMPLANT I shall have quite a fair bit to spend .

The Malaysian market is so bearish ( because of incapable and hopeless government , nasty politicking, poor handling of covid , etc) ! Even the best fundamental and high earning stocks also drifting lower and lower .... That's the irony !

@Thecontrarian, yes, LTAT last minute dropping the privatisation is no good. But we also don't know exactly the reason why they did so. Even without privatisation, I still hold my belief that LTAT and the government will have to restore Bstead in good health . I am in for slightly longer haul than you . Hope you can wish me good luck. Hahaha...

@TheContrarian, yes I do sell when they somewhere near my target price or acheiving their potential. I even sell at loss when the fundamentals of the stock turn negative.

Unfortunately I have no flair in day to day trading.

I add more when price went below 60 sen in the past few months. My average cost is 63 sen . I will only sell in stages when price reach $1.00 to $1.20.

In Part 3 , I will share my thoughts on Management Attitude, business appetite and company's direction post MPI Generali disposal.

Part 2 continues..,
5. Group A to G are long term investors and their stake hardly changed in the past few years. I prone to think that even most Group H investors are not ready to give up at current price .

6. I am not concerned for the perceived high influence or 'control' SU has (refer point 2). Investors in group C, D,E , although deemed friendly to SU, will look after their own interests first and want a fair deal too in event of privatization.

7. There should be enough dissenting shareholders to block unfair privatization offer .

Lastly, The ultimate shareholders in MPHB may be more complex than what it appear in the annual report due to the politically linked transaction in the company's history in the late 1990 and early 2000.

That's all I can say. Please make your own judgement . Kindly add your thoughts for sharing.

Part 2 : shareholdings structure
Below analysis is based on 30 largest shareholders as at 29 March 2021 appears in 2020 Annual Report. I am trying to group the 30 largest shareholders into 7 Groups (A to G) as below;

Group A: SU thru his vehicle Casi and mwe;
Shareholder No 1,4,7 = 261.75 mil share (36.61%)

Group B : The Thai Uppaputthangkuls family
No 6, 19,26 = 31.83 mil share (4.45%)
Very likely this Group is family members of SU.

Group C : Director, senior executive and person/companies holding interest in MPHB, mwe and Magnum.
No 5,8,15,16,18,24,28 =73.98 mil share (10.35%)

Group D : Foreign Nonimee Exempt Account
No 2,3,12,13 =95.85 mil share (13.4%)
These are Anonymous which is usually not willing to disclose they interest due to sensitivity of the information eg public servants, politicians , etc

Group E : Foreign Corporate Shareholders
No 10, 14 = 22.94 mil share (3.21%)

Group F institutional funds
No 17,29,30 = 11.78 mil share (1.65%)

Group G : private individual and corporate
No 9,11,20,21,22,23,25,27 = 48.50 mil share (6.8%)

Group H : minorities not in the top 30 list
Total 168.37 mil share (23.5%)

Analysis :
1. I make assumption on the high end basis , the Friendly Shareholders to SU are Group B,C,D,E = 31.41% The proportion is definitely higher as part of Group H ( non top 30) are also Friendly parties.

2,. SU + Friendly Parties > 68.02% !!! (36.61+ 31.41)

3.Private and independent Shareholders
Group F,G =8.45%
Part of Group H ( non top 30) are private and independent Shareholders too.
This category will increase to about 20% is we assume half of group H are independent.

4. Foreign ownership in this company is very very high :
Group A,B, D, E and part of group F and H too.

Part 2 to be continued..,,,,

Pls correct me if anyone knows my assumption and analysis is inaccurate. You input is very helpful to provide the investing public accurate information for investment decisions.

Two directors abuse power and mis appropriate money belonging to the company for personal interest. It is in the media. Such company with dishonest directors is not worth a look .

@MuttsInvestor,. We shall have a big celebration if the wish come thru . I think either way is ok for us as we are in both stocks. However, I have higher exposure in Bplant than Bstead.. Who knows they may privatise both together . Cheers!

I hope LTAT privatise Bplant instead of Bstead. Just a wish .

Serious Privatisation always come like a thief without warning.

last Wednesday volume was 1.167 bil share traded , highest reached 77.5 sen
Today's volume is 63.1 mil share traded, highest price reached 76.5 sen. I suspect privitasation is getting real this round. Hope for the best to come.

@PSAi3alert, you are probably a financial accountant to rightly point out that the assets and liability of MPI Generali will be sold all together. MPI Generali is a 51% subsidiary of MPHB capital Holdings which in turn 100% owned by MPHB capital Bhd
Per MPHB'S 2020 annual report non controlling interest in MPI Generali was $329mil (ie for 49%) . Therefore, them 51% valued $342 mil is already consolidated in MPHB capital Bhd's group balance sheet (equal to 48 sen per share). The other 49% is reflected in Non- controlling interest in the Balance sheet.
The revised projected NA shall righly be $2.60 - 0.48+0.74= $2.86.
Cashflow for MPHB will improve by $0.74 per share arising from the disposal , not the NA. I apologise for the oversight (and I am still learning!)

Revaluation on property since listing is not evidenced at all. Book value of the properties have not changed since listing apart from some disposal and forced acquisition. Bear in mind that these properties are inherited from the old Multi Purpose Bhd before demerger.

Just to quote a few examples to support my assumption for land value:
5 acres Land at Jalan imbi at $1,000 to $1,100 psf is well below realisable value. In recent years , many land transaction in KL centre were at around $3,000 psf .
12.04 acres at tasik Ampang (flamingo hotel ) value at 25mil total or at $47 psf is well below market value . It had surfaced in the media some 5-6 years ago that Pavilion boss was contemplating the acquisition for about $500 mil for this 12.04 acres + the adjoining 2.71 acres of the commercial complex also owned by MPHB.
1,726 acre of pengarang next to Rapid , a huge and robust petrochemical park , at 78 sen psf is absurd . My friends who are traders in petrochemical product acquired 10 acres land in the same vacinity paid $25 psf without infrastructure 4 years ago. The pengarang lands , 971 acres is freehold and 731 acres lease expiring in year 2910 ( as good as freehold).
Flamingo hotel by the beach , a 289 rooms , 4 star hotel in Penang, with book value at $33 mil. It can easily fetch $150-180 mi if put on the market.

Interestingly , in 2013, MPHB sold a piece of land at balik Pulau, Penang for $226 millions while book value was merely $32 mil. This information is in Bursa disclosure.

Hope all the information I share is helpful to anyone looking at this share, of course with error and omission which is not deliberately done to misled investors.

@beluga, Fair enough. You are very clear of what you want to achieve and don't have to be concern of the day to day share price . I also opine that the insurance unit in the Philippines will do well and shall worth quite a bit above the book value if TY decide to spin it off one day . TY knows the value . He was just over confident that he would get thru the SCR at $1.10 which was also high premium to the 50-60 sen price traded before the SCR news surfaced. Happy investing.

Part 1 continuation..
(8) of the projected NA of $3.34 (point 7), $1.80 to $2.00 shall be in cash + securities investment (liquid asset).
(9) projected NA does not considered the realisable market value of all properties which are at extremely low book value now .
Potential RNAV of $7 per share is not a fallacy .

Part 1 : Valuation
(1). My take for the valuation of the ongoing 51% sales of the insurance unit is about $550 mil .
(2) $550 mil price tag is based on the 100% valuation for MPI of $735 mil established when the 49% was sold to Generali in 2015. The 49% sold in 2015 was for $360mil (based on 2.45x book value as at 31/12/2013) which I presumed is the basis for the remaining 51% = $375 mil,
(3). We have to add MPHB's portion of NPAT retained in MPI Generali (the JV) from 2015 to 2020 amounting to $175 mil.
(4). Hence total price tag is $375 +175 = $550 mil. (2) + (3).
(5) The total cost of investment in the insurance unit (100%)in the book was $47.1 mil . This was reported in the EGM circular in 2015.
The proportionate cost carrying in the book for 51% is 51%x $47.1 mil = $24 mil.
(6) Nett gain after disposal shall be 550-24 = $526 mil or 74 sen per MPHB share.
(7) NA of the company will increase from $2.60 to $3.34 (2.60+0.74). upon completion of the disposal.
……Part 1 to be continued…

I promise @chkhooju yesterday to share more insights into this deep value stock. I shall break it into 3 or 4 parts covering valuation, shareholding structure, Management's attitude and Corporate excercise possibilities. I must reiterate again that my objective is purely to disseminate what I know and what I think and to promote healthy exchanges of information for the benefit of minority shareholders.
You are totally responsible for how you will make use of these information.

@beluga, it is not necessarily a bad thing to put forward the price if the dissenting minorities can come to consensus so that thing can move forward. Give TY some degree of certainty as he obviously don't want to fail the second time . Should work for a win win solution.

In this respect, it's simpler to privatise Bplant first , the asset rich crown Jewel, which Bstead and LTAT collectively own 70 % . There is a lot of value in Bplant that LTAT / Bstead can take advantage of .

Bstead own 57.42% of Bplant. Indirect shareholdering of LTAT in Bplant thru Bstead is 34.11% (59.4% x 57.42%). LTAT has 12.1% direct holding in Bplant.
When LTAT takes 100% control of Bstead , its indirect shareholdering in Bplant will increase by whopping 23.32% and trigger MGO for bplant unless waiver is granted by SC. On what reasonable ground can SC grant the waiver without being challenged??

Isn't it simpler to privatise Bplant first , the asset rich crown Jewel, which Bstead and LTAT collectively own 70 % . There is a lot of value in Bplant that LTAT / Bstead can take advantage of .

Same MGO trigger for other listed subsidiary.

Bstead own 57.42% of Bplant. Indirect shareholdering of LTAT in Bplant thru Bstead is 34.11% (59.4% x 57.42%). LTAT has 12.1% direct holding in Bplant.
When LTAT takes 100% control of Bstead , its indirect shareholdering in Bplant will increase by whopping 23.32% and trigger MGO for bplant unless waiver is granted by SC. On what reasonable ground can SC grant the waiver without being challenged??

I remember the last sales of 49% to Generali was approved by BNM about 2-3 months after submission. I suspect the authority would not drag it longer this time as Malaysia and the PN government in dire need to shore up FDI and foreign capital inflow (so that PM, FM and Trade Ministers can boost about FDI and foreign investor's confidence) Hahaha..,
Just my view for sharing.

The share price has yet to fully price in the insurance sales at this stage. Some investors may still be skeptical about the authority's finally approving the sales.
My view is it will get thru this time . The government is very 'hungry' for arresting the declining FDI especially amid current stressful state of economy of Malaysia. The timing and the whole package jointly put in place by Generali, AXA, Affin.and MPHB are very good.
You can read in the news how proud is our PM highlighting the stake sales of Sunway healthcare to GIC Spore FDI and foreign confidence in our economy.

@ctvelu, I have no definite answer to your question. I guess it is PNB's objective to provide a bit more market liquidity to this stock. As you know MNRB is 60% too tightly held by PNB and it's fund units . Hence, the stock has been trading with at low liquidity which is a situation not attractive to investors especially foreign investors.
I certainly don't smell anything fishy .

@Xuxu,. Sorry that I mis-read you . From your posts , it gave me the impression that your investment decision is very much guided by TA or Charts. We all know that TA/charts can turn very quickly by manipulator or sharks to misled you especially for rather illiquid and low free float stock like MPHB cap. Whereas, manipulator or sharks can not change the fundamentals of the company. Happy investing..

@beluga,. I also think he will make another attempt . Is a matter of price.
Only if you feel comfortable , pls share what will be the base line price to you and to the minorities who rejected the last SCR if another offer shall come within next 6-12 months ?

Make more sense to privatise Bplant instead. But still no way at 80 sen.

@TheContrarian,. If the offer is 80 sen, very difficult for them to succeed . Don't waste time then.

@xuxu, may be you should sell all now and invest in other counter that yourself is absolutely convinced.. Nobody is guaranteeing you profit in this share . Just a friendly comment . No offense please. Hehe

@chkhooju, if you buy and hold for at least 6 months it is still value buy. Buy the dips . To trade for overnight profit subject to short term volatility and your timing. This has been my stand all along . By tomorrow, I will be happy to tell you why the value in this stock is indeed very deep.

@Contrarian,. if the privatisation for Bstead is for real , I hope the offeror is more serious to offer $1.20 as this price has been forwarded by some corporate shareholders before.

Privatising Bplant , follow by monetising some high value freehold lands is a wise move that help to quicken the paring down of group level debts. After the above completed, divest 30% to another efficient plantation group to unlock the plantantion asset values and leverage on expertise of the acquirer to improve plantation's performance.
I think LTAT is more keen to privatise Bplant first . Ultimately, Bstead will benefit a lot too

Privatising Bplant , follow by monetising some high value freehold lands is a wise move that help to quicken the paring down of group level debts. After the above completed, divest 30% to another efficient plantation group to unlock the plantantion asset values and leverage on expertise of the acquirer to improve plantation's performance.
I think LTAT is more keen to privatise Bplant first . Ultimately, Bstead will benefit a lot too.

@beluga,. I would reject it too if I were shareholder then. Last weekend I read a bit of the past comments posted by the SCR supporting minorities which to my opinion were unreasonable, unfair and uncalled for. They have forgotten that every shareholder has equal rights. I gathered that the dissenting minorities only asked for $1.30 (ie 20 sen more) which was absolutely not too much to ask for !!
At the time of SCR, nett asset of the group was about $536 mil consisting of $257 mil cash (!!) + substantial liquid investment. It was more likely that the company worth more than $536mil because the insurance outfit usually worth more than book value .
Assuming the company worth only $536 mil ( per nett asset).
To pay $1.10 for SCR amounted to $184 mil only ($1.1 x 167.74 mil share)
Balance after SCR for TY was $352 mil ($536 - $184) which work out to be $3.30 per TY's portion of share.
Hence , Minorities : TY distribution ratio was $1.10 : $3.30. Reasonable?? Absurd !
How could TY and SCR supporting minorities fault the dissenting minorities for blocking the SCR !!
Even if TY agreed to $1.30, the asset distribution ratio would be $1.30 to $3.00 favouring TY by huge margin !
I guess minorities have to wake up from being always unfairly exploited by controlling shareholders .

Must watch out what IJM is going to do with the Toll road assets including WCE. I believe IJM will monetise it sooner than market anticipate.

Will there be M&A exercise lead by the controlling shareholders PNB to unlock value for stakeholders? Something worth watching out for !

I place high hope on this gem to be polished soon like MPHB capital.

Congratulations to those who managed to pick up some at low price yesterday. Hold tight to what you owned. I think more excitement is coming in 3 stages over next 3 - 6 months. Don't be frightened by the mild profit taking by the weak holders which is normal to happen along the way . Don't be taken advantage by ''insider' who are waiting to collect your share. For those who can hold until this ''fruit' is ripen will enjoy the sweet reward.

@stockraider,. Unfortunately for the Yap I know, it is highly unlikely for him to be generous. He only hope to ' makan' minorities's share at 40 sen.

@TheContrarian, may be a wise move that I should think about too. At least you make some from the dividend. But for me, I have to taken a 15% loss of I do the same.

For SCR, the offeror is making use of the company's internal resources to fund it. For MGO or GO, the offeror must have his personal or third party resources to fund it. He need about $220 mil to fund the GO if at $1.50. I think SRC is more likely and he is in no hurry to do it . He will only do it when the company retains higher profit to cover the higher price minorities demanded , provided minorities don't shift the goalpost . Dividend for next few years may be in jeopardy,. Just another possibility for investors to think about too.

@JJChan,, I fully concur your view that the RHB stake is a pain in OLH’s ass . On one hand, there is so much uncertainty to what will happened to the 10.13% stake in RHB post OLH's era. Will BNM pressure him to pare down? Will BNM allow him to pass the same stake down to his children ? All these are at mercy of BNM's control and policy!
On the other hand,. It is no easy to get buyers for this big stakes with BNM has to approve the buyer and also who get to sit on the board . It is unlikely to get good valuation for such block of share in very restrictive environment.

Additionally, TY’s stake remain 105,777,084 unit since 2019 despite there were plenty of opportunities to soak up at much below takeover offer price of $1.10. However, there were sharebuyback (SBB) after the failed takeover until mid Aug 20. A total 9.5 mil treasury share from SBB were cancelled in Dec 20. The last SBB was in Aug 20. Why SBB stop despite its share price from mid Aug 20 to end Feb 21 ( 6 months period) was trading between 58 to 75 sen only ? Logically if TY soaks up more cheap share from open market, he can afford to eventually offer higher price for the remaining Minorities to ensure success. All these seem to point to TY’s lack of interest to undertake another SCR soon ..
Just my view for sharing. Glad to hear yours too.

@TheContrarian, thanks for the information. Based on what you said, the next SCR may take years until the bitter feeling of the acquirer fade away and until the minorities patience’s wear off. It’s like a tug-of-war.

I am just trying to gauge whether the gap between what minorities want and what the offeror willing to give remain too big for another SRC to happen. Without SRC opportunity, this stock can be quite full for a long period.