Keep mother share, if you wish to have aviation business (will receive new AAX share later) and non-aviation businesses.

Kept RCUID and let go mother share if you like to keep non-aviation business, to enjoy 8% interest and opportunity to convert to future mother share for capital gain & dividend. I foreseen non-aviation era will have better EPS, less debt and smaller share unit floating in market (assume share consolidation happens).

MRO business is expending and it is not a dream to IPO in future.

Since Cap A break RM1 , I will add some gasoline to this heat fire now and look at post-corporate exercise era
(My view is for discussion purpose. Buy and sell share at your own risk, you should done your own analysis.) :

Assumption : Current Cap A outstanding shares are 4.3b units, and 10 to 1 share consolidation happens, new outstanding shares is 430m units. Dividend payout ratio 30%.
Below calculation is assumption.
According to FY2023 quarterly report, cap A total revenue on non-aviation segment was RM1.085b , EBITDA was RM215m. After 24% tax & 10% interest & depreciation, net profit was RM141.9M and EPS (based on 430m share units) was RM0.33 . Current share price of RM1, indicated PE 3.3x only and dividend yield of 9.9% (based on RM0.099 dividend - 30% payout ratio).

According to FY2024 quarterly report, cap A total revenue on non-aviation segment (Jan to June) was RM508m , EBITDA was RM103m. After 24% tax & 10% interest & depreciation, net profit was RM67.9M and EPS (based on 430m share units) was RM0.1576 . Lets assume annual EPS is RM0.25, current share price of RM1, indicated PE 4x only and dividend yield of 7.5% (based on RM0.075 dividend - 30% payout ratio).

Do you think the current price is undervalue? HLIB TP is RM1.68 , based on EPS of RM0.25, the PE is 6.7x .
Several factors to look at: Increase in MRO hangar units, MRO slot fully book until 2025 year end, expansion of MRO aircrafts to Boeing and expansion of MRO service other aircraft operators.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDYzEjqHLwQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lELGYwfHdck

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/26/oil-prices-little-changed-as-us-stockpile-drop-offsets-global-demand-woes.html

Tony: hello cheap oil =)

You guys lose the focus on future business model and keep thinking the current business model, is airline business profit your concern ?

A BIG NO, it is the businesses stayed with Cap A you should focus.
BTW, AA brand master agreement required all AA aviation companies (Thailand, Philippine, Malaysia, Indonesia) pay 1% - 2% of their revenue to AA brand company as royalty fee, right now Cap A still the owner of this branding company. FY2023 group revenue was 14B , this branding company easily has 140M royalty fee into pocket.

Without official figure, the shareholders can either guess the figure after AA gone OR use available information to reverse engineer and calculate the possible profit.

In classroom, we learn 1 + 1 = 2 , we also learn reverse engineering the equation to 2 - 1 = 1 .
This is the maximum hint I can offer, if you are too lazy to do the homework, perhaps can start selling your Cap A stock.
You will be surprise with the profit and EPS from non-aviation segment.

Why Tony focus on MRO service now ....

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727740

Finally all airline subsidiaries financial reports are posted in AAX & CAP A, good profit and operation cashflow in overall performance.
Time line also available to quit PN17:

16 October 2024 - EGM for the Proposals and Proposed Granting of Subscription Options

November 2024 / December 2024 -
• Price-fixing for the Warrants and announcement of Warrants Entitlement
Date
• Warrants Entitlement Date
• Listing and quotation of Warrants on the Main Market of Bursa Securities
• Completion of the Proposed Issuance of Free Warrants

December 2024 / January 2025
• Price-fixing for the Placement Shares
• Completion of the Proposed Private Placement
• SSPAs becoming unconditional
• Completion of the Proposed Acquisitions

January 2025 / February 2025
• High Court’s order obtained for confirmation of the Proposed Share Capital
Reduction
• Lodgement of the High Court’s order for confirmation of the Proposed Share
Capital Reduction with the Registrar of Companies
• Effective date of the Proposed Share Capital Reduction

Sslee, to ensure management answer your question, make sure you present your self physically at EGM meeting venue, so the management cant run away from you. I am looking forward to hear from you what answer you get.

More confidence from ex-MAS CEO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9AlpGyzAAc

more collaboration:
https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/airasia-and-airbus-announce-wide-ranging-partnership-to-accelerate-aviation-sustainability

https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/capital-a-announces-egm-timeframe-marking-key-progress-in-aviation-business-disposal-to-airasia-x

so the RM 3b is new share with cash ?
Or it is issued to CAP A holder on the share swap basis ?
Cause the supplemental agreement in Bursa announcement has not revoked the share swap clause despite AAX will buy over AA business directly.

Bursa gave a green light on AAX M&A proposal, soon AAX will have EGM to obtain approval from shareholders.
Next, Cap A will also get green light from bursa on the proposal and held an EGM.

STony has better logic than anyone else and ensure every flight hit the break-even load factor (Tony mentioned once is about 63% before covid, now not sure) before the flight take off, hence 80% ~ 90% load factor is a profitable flights.

Business model illustration: https://imgur.com/8K1weV2

Stony sell ticket first and collect money first, so cash come to pocket first. If the load factor of the flight not enough, give promotion.
Air ticket fee structure always got 3 parts: ticket price ( RM1 to RM xxx, whatever profit AA want to make) , fuel charge (fix cost paid by client) and tax (fix cost).
First, Tony needs to get as much as people join the flight , so the fuel cost is shared among all the passengers, once fuel cost breakeven, whatever extra is profit.
2nd, AA sell ticket in advance, which flight load factor is low, pump the promotion, client buy ticket, money masuk pocket.
3rd, Maintenance dept is the main non-aviation profit driver, as long as AA aircraft in the sky, aircraft must obtain clearance b4 flying. This means more flight, more checkup = more profit.
4th, As long as it is Airbus brand , AA can repair regardless MAS, SIA, ANA , JAL .... CAP A can survive without AA, but of course AA has the priority on this maintenance service first la... I heard MAS repairman not only korek by SIA, but Tony also korek from MAS ... lol
5th, Clearly u read this industry as an outsider with inappropriate example. Ignorance on the business model and dont even do a homework on the non-aviation business EPS.

Dividend Reinvestment Plan = duit masih dalam company and shareholder get an extra share paper only.
In conclusion, KSL give u a share paper, u go bursa goreng urself.
When the share base enlarged, KSL is more liquid, but share price is likely to drop. Because U need to look for waterfish to buy these dividend reinvested shares (AKA paper share) while KSL top management still busy counting paper MONEY.

Give out dividend (from the company earning), is the only driving force for the share price. OR goreng by ppl.

In contrast to Boon Siew group and UP, who rewarding shareholder handsomely and the company still growing well, I feel hatred to KSL where the management not even share their fruitful result with the shareholders. Besides, the top management mostly is gagilang (family members) and taking lucrative salary for their own sake.

Uncle Boon Siew very geng leh...
From what I know, the company is severely undervalue despite the NTA per share is RM12.70.
If revaluation of land bank is performed and up-to-date, I am sure NTA is much more higher.
No surprise and no expectation, every year steadily cari makan dan tunggu duit masuk bank saya.
I got hold small portion for dividend (yield 6.5% based on my acquisition cost) and as a conservative share.

Ya, we will see about that.
My eye is looking at current financial.
My brain is thinking the possible future outcome.
My excel is recording the non-aviation segment figures.
Opportunity comes to those who prepared and ready to act.

Unlikely because this counter is liquid enough despite the price is high.
Too much shares in the market will become the target of short seller and causing speculation to dive down the price.
Most recent bonus issue happened during Covid time to maintain the share liquidity.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/article/united-plantations-proposes-oneforone-bonus-issue

Figure speaks, profit or loss depends what you focus.
Uncle aunty without financial knowledge look at current figure and predict what comes next, so they know it is loss making.
Investor who know the industry well focus on future new business model and current figure under the new business model (non-aviation), that why after reading the first 3 statements in quarterly report, investor dig more details at the back pages to learn about the non-aviation business is making profit or loss.

Do you know what is the EPS or LPS of non-aviation business?
You will be surprise to learn this info once you found out.

Plan:
Yesterday: Tony complaint & Asian Dubai vision
Today: Revitalization of Subang airport and Upgrade of KLIA 1 & 2 facilities
Tomorrow: To prepare for Asian Dubai in Malaysia

What Sslee think:
Yesterday: AA making loss and huge debt, Tony complaint
Today: AA so many debt and making loss, sure pok gai.
Tomorrow: AA going to bankrupt and out of business soon.

Fact:
Yesterday: AA pok gai during covid and PN17.
Today: Load factor 80% ~ 90% every quarter, paying debt & service interest on time, expanding new routes and leasing more aircraft to catch up the business growth. Loss making due to non-cash item such as depreciation and unrealised cost.
Tomorrow: All the creative ideas and corporate exercise to quit PN17, progress is slow but still moving.

U can keep money at FD or EPF, risk free return until 60 years old, rather than ranting at i3 since 3 years ago.

With the ambitious to turn Malaysia into Asian Dubai, Ministry of Transport and Tony are working together in a master plan which not known by many.
1. Revitalization of Subang airport as local hub for domestic flight progressively from 2024 to 2030, more local flight will divert to Subang in future.
2. Expansion of hanger facilities in Malaysia to fulfill aircraft maintenance service.
3. Upgrade of KLIA 1 & 2 facilities to cater more international flights and more spaces as a transfer hub to other Asia Pacific Island and Asia countries.

We are clear that aviation business going to dispose soon, thus I only focus on non-aviation part in the financial statement. If you are hardworking and smart enough, the non-aviation EPS has a story to tell, whether the current share price is under/overvalue. Upon completion of all the corporate exercises, there will be no bargain left.

昨日黄花不可留，今日花圃犹可赏，明日花苞待盛开。

FY2023 non-aviation EPS is about 35sen, CAP A will turn into Green upon disposal of aviation business and share consolidation.
If the company fixed the dividend policy at 40% of EPS, the dividend yield is about 8.3% based on share price RM1.68

Same AAX strategy, there is a regularization plan but not submitted to Bursa.
When CAP A generated 2 quarters profit and reversal of negative networth (upon completion of corporate exercise), Tony will straight away apply to quit PN17.
The business environment is dynamic, if regularization plan submitted, CAP A is forced to follow the plan and timeline despite the macro environment change (AA / AAX Thailand is forced to follow the regularization plan that submitted to Thailand authority).
So it is better to reveal to the regularization plan to public and Bursa , but not submitted to Bursa. Then apply for PN17 extension along the way and show Bursa there is a progress to actually improve the company overall financial position & operation efficiency.

too many Cap. A shares for short sell, that why the price has huge resistance to go up.
AAX dont have many shares flood in market, thus not many short sell activity and price can go up easily.
Anyway, rebound is expected for both counters once the corporate exercise showing progress.

I need Tony magic wand to let CAP. A quit from PN17.

We are ready for EGM =)

https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/capital-a-embarks-on-the-last-mile-for-the-creation-of-a-stronger-airasia-aviation-group

Tony wants to speed up the combination of aviation business, what a good news =)

RM901 million worth commodity futures contract to be delivered in next 12 months ....
Another round RM1.90 dividend this year ??

how AA makes money: https://i.imgur.com/8K1weV2.png

Hidden gem for value investor.

The order book in 2Q2024 quarterly result and the production report will paint the picture.

according to AGM, Tony highlighted the following timeline:

Another and last PN17 extension to July, submission plan in June.
Approval from bursa & SC and EGM in August. High court approval in Sep.
Formal corporate exercise in 4Q2024.
Complete all exercises in 1Q2025 and move on.

after panic sales, the price went up to normal stage again.
financial institutions remained the primary source of revenue. congratz to the buyer who bought during the panic selldown.

EPF hold abt 7% UP now =)

6th largest RCUID holder convert their loan stock into mother stock?
that is about RM34.5M ...
Could there be any rebound in next few day?

Took partial profit of my other counter and bought UP at RM23.90, current production volume and price suggested better result in 2Q2024 as compared to 2Q2023. Dry season is currently mitigated by evening rainy day.

Anyway, Stony has hinted you all that THEY got way to increase ur shareholder value in a CASH FORM, so pandai pandai know which counter to buy la =D
Also he got mentioned CAPEX is long term expenditure and is financed by long term debt & equity, dont always think the 23 billion lease liabilities due next year la, can always R&R la = =
lastly, business as usual and cash flow from core revenue looks handsome =)

SSlee, I thought u spent RM85 to buy 1 lot share to enter the AGM and watch how Stony address your 30+ questions ?
After AGM, u can sell it off and rugi 1 day starbuck on trading fee only.
3 kaki all answered the technical and financial questions , but not sure which one is ur's ....

Slight increase in production and CPO average price as compared to last year May.

I am waiting for next week production report.

wah, so many debt, why still surviving ??
why lessors and lenders still give money to AA ??
BOA and Airbus approved lease to AA ??
Tony is their sweetheart ??
is there insider news that we dont know ?
why Airbus continued to deliver aircraft to AA ?
are they crazy ?

haiya, loss making again.
unrealised forex and depreciation lor.
aiyo, why still got 789M cash from operation, aiya, why repaid 433M loan...
how come cash increased by 200M to 900M ??
WHY ????

guys, make sure you attend AGM in June, Tony want to sell you story and number =)

Why the airline merger and what is the expectation for shareholder on Capital A future ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDA-3OpBUms
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ii3jBN8bBNU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDA-3OpBUms

@Mabel, how many % capital gain so far?

Forget abt other segments (teleport, santan & etc) where the profit is offset among each others, MRO business is performing well with 25% profit margin.
With the completion of the new 14 aircraft hangar at Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA), which set to be operational by the 3Q2024, will significantly bolster base maintenance capacity, accommodating up to 21 aircraft (14 new + 7 existing).

source: https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/asia-digital-engineering-celebrates-landmark-achievement-of-100-c-checks-in-less-than-25-years#gsc.tab=0
source: https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/04/27/ade-secures-investment-for-maintenance-of-hangar-facility

The business structure of MRO has better margin, and the cost is manageable because of asset light model, only need to focus on labor cost. When the MRO expansion is about 3X of current capacity, the revenue & profit are expected to be 2-fold to 3-fold.

very fat salary, Tony & kamarul - 17M each person = =

YES I DO believe they can sail thru the storm because they are surviving now.

23B leases are long term installment from Airbus & other Lease Co. Last week proposal, the creditors said OK for corporate exercise as long as debts are serviced in future, which is continue paid by new Co. every month. Please remember that 23B is not DUE IMMEDIATELY but due in 10-20 years.

These Lease co. and Airbus need reliable customer that has huge business scale to digest their aircrafts, AA is one of them, not small potato like MyAirline which is koyak now.