KingKong The infamous JP Morgan price target 3.50 makes sense now. Thinking of swinging back to glove . Still cannot decide how low is low. But risk to reward gets better below 3.0

Anyone able to to provide intrinsic value based on DCF with no growth assumptions and/or 5 yrs growth from 2020? I had it at RM2.5~ to 2.8 . Still cannot decide with so many anecdotal market assumptions. Hopefully around this price to enter.

Global Third wave on covid cases is on a very steep downtrend since last week. I would suggest to wait a few more weeks before decided to go in. Ex date and drop in local cases this week onwards will also spook the market. Looking at the intrinsic value, DCF based on no growth is around ~2.50 range. Unchartered territory of evaluation. Welcome to debunk the risk vs profit , and fair price estimates.

TreeTopView , ok Will wait till 11.00 - 11.20 region, yet still have to grapple with the emotions of selling. Still learning to swing trade and sticking to the plan. We can't predict impairments as we usually don't have the privy to their accounting decisions.

Resistance level 10.42 can be easily broken next few days. Volume should be able to hold. Next resistance at 11.22. Tenaga is lower risk until the next political move. Hardest decision is when to sell
Good luck

Covid cases should be peaking this week and continue to drop after this week. Delta variant peak is around 5 weeks seen in india and UK. With the aggressive vaccination drive, 70% 2 dose rate for herd immunity will be achieve in mid sept. Now lets hope for a solution for a good transition on the political impasse. The market just need some good news and all good recovery stocks with strong fundamentals will benefit. Good luck guys.

Not bad but no cigar. Revenue stable , profit margin increases , company getting more efficient. Good buy at current price

Currently 4.40-4.43 looks low risk to go in. Strong support. Wait for reversal.

Good day to decide to go in , 9.70 good support and stable at 9.73. MACD cross over reversal potential in a few days.

How will DBS bank acquire citibank in Malaysia with only 2 branch in KL and Labuan . Will Bank Negara allow a singapore bank license to operate. If they insist on a merger which bank will be interested in ?
Affin will now owns only 30% of the insurance business. 1.29 Billion cash acquire. Citibank main profit is from its credit cards and some big banks will have issue of dual cards if they take over as usually citi customers will have another major local banks. Lets see how it play out

With DBS acquiring Citibank india commercial banking business, how will it play out for Citibank malaysia? WIth Hwang Capital (Name change use to be Hwang DBS) strong partnership in Malaysia ,will Affin stand to benefit from this. Rumours has it Hwang Captial has similar talk to take over the commercial bank as well in Malaysia. They hv sold the commercial banking business to Affin in 2014 however , Affin Hwang capital (part of affin group) might be involve as well to allow the current commercial banking assets of Affin banks to be utilized for this takeover. Time will tell.

https://singaporenewslive.com/dbs-in-advanced-talk-with-citibank-to-acquire-citis-consumer-banking-business-in-india/194872/

Malakoff was taken private in 2007 and relisted in 2015 IPO at 1.80/5bil shares It has been trading at ~0.85 all time low for many years now. With yearly dividend rate given out at 5-6%, SM Akbukary might consider taking it private again to create more liquidity/funding. Market cap of malakoff is even higher then MMC. It was either MMC or Malakoff to be taken private. Many banks/funds can provide better debt facility at lower 6% dividend payment given out. Similar situation for good companies in KLSE as liquidity opportunity is limited. Ananda Krishnan has the same problem as well.

Between MMC and Malakof Corp, they hold 40% of the total shareholders equities. Suspect there will be high activities on this counter as well. Objectives is to increase shareholding vales. Good luck guys.

I just contacted MBB. It will be credited by 3 pm today , batch by batch

Maybank trading account only bank in tnb dividend today. Slow. Checking on the forum discussion same old story naysayer vs uncertain retailers. Khazanah owns ~25% EPF +17% , KWAP/AS++ another 10% + other local funds Total ~75% . Foreign ~12.3%. Roughly 10% by u and me. Khazanah usually do not sell and EPF has reduce from high usually 17-18+ %. Sell down mainly from foreign , high of 17% to 12 % within the last year. Lowest in 10 yrs time and stable now. The current drop is at very low volume most likely by you and me. Nothing to be worry about just a low volume test.

I believe we are referring to the Group vs company. I was refering to the group

I was refering to their long term and short term debt. Current Liability will be short term debt that has to be service within the year.

Strong support at 0.84. Strong fundamentals. For risk averse investors. Yearly 10% -20% potential growth should be something old timers know how to appreciate. Not for young guns.

Total debt at 10.58 Bil. 10 yr average at 16.5 Bil. It has reduce significantly since 2016/17 report. Current ratio stable at 2.04 ~pass years. Liquidity ratio not a concern. total liability has also drop 24B to 18 Bil currently.
Divident payout ratio is near 100% of earnings...seems to be normal for utilities /IPP.
Current Stock price at 8.50-8.60 is a good bargain. Another well manage company.
Current price action looks good to enter as well.

3 white soldiers candle forming. High chance bullish trend to continue. Resistance at 5.

Foreign buyers are back...Good choice of fundamentals and technical charting will the fund managers picking. Good luck . The merger based on 2018/19 case might be neutral for Maxis. Digi/Axiata will have a good run too.

Reaching resistance level 4.49. Double bottom at this level. Very tricky situation. Will see a next few days. To cut lost if it goes below 4.45. Lets hope for the best the double bottom is the reversal.

EPF owns around 12% and PNB 10% of Maxis. KLSE is always political play. They remove Abdul Jalil from PNB (now Berjaya CEO) and appoint EPF Amir Hamzah (ex TNB CEO). Dr. M camps is still pulling the string but we will never know for certain which friends will help on the political funding's. Like it or not his business links is still strong. Now Abdul Jalil is buying Berjaya shares, not sure where he gets the money. I am confident Ananda Krishna and Dr.M son will not let Dr. M team down. Matter of timing. They even tried to give Altel 5G, just imagine that !.
Time to move out from BJ group and invest somewhere else. Will it hit Maxis soon?

The typical flag pole chart forming again. Slight Congestions before potential breakout. Above 10.84/10.88 if it happens next few days. If not wait again. Good luck and happy trading.

GE15 theme will be coming soon. Look out for the old horse business link and you will see the opportunity. Al Bulkary Group, YTL, VT, AK family and friends links. Still in the accumulation stage, look at the sudden price action and volume. By the time the news come retailers will be late in the game.

The big funds portfolio rebalancing until end qtr Mar. Looks like supermax, tglove, maxis is in the list. Gloves will hv a 2nd wind. Good luck. Tenaga drop no concern as buying volume is very high

Maxis is in accumulation phased by insiders. Anytime it goes lower, bigger volume will mop up end of the day. Accumulation might take a few more weeks or months. Insiders wish to bring it up or further down you decide. 10 years low. They will shake until all the fruits are down before deciding.
Good trading and happy weekend.

5G devices are all ready, chip manufacturing boom and phone assembly supply chain as well. Missing is the service provider in Malaysia and its spectrum license decision. (easy money for SPV here)
In summary the infrastructure are towers and their cell base stations. For a start they will utilized the existing non stand alone station based on 4g LTE and subsequently creating more stand alone stations. The none standalone base is already ready. With software license from 5g station supplier they can run it pretty fast.(Huawei /Ericson).
I suspect the collaboration announcement by Digi/Celcom immediately after the SPV announcement was to improve the infrastructure partnership in major cities which Maxis is focusing on. This is were the priority of 5G will be. Not the rural bases station which Celcom is focusing on. (due to national interest). Maxis has the advantage on major city where 5G will be important for manufacturing and services industries.
Good luck in your investment.

Axiata and Telenor Digi merger is in the news again. When that happens in May 2019 , both shares bounce and retracted shapely when the merger got cancel in sept that year. Axiata is a govt link company and corporate governance has been and issues. Have to read up on this to understand about the impact on Maxis. It was in general negative on Maxis but the share price were stable when this news was known in 2019. Would suggest to wait a few days on how things turn out. If can get below 4.60 is already a bargain. Usually merger and acquisition is not easy and comes with lot of complexity, layoffs, controls , anti competition law among others. It was drop earlier as they cannot get an agreement.

4.60 is a strong support level, very small volume now to move up and down. Bollinger band tightened for a few weeks now. Meaning the bear is getting tired. Good luck if you can get below 4.60. I personally went in at 4.60. Willing to wait it out. EPF is a substantial share holder and currently the funds are not fully in yet. Fund managers will still wait and see as global market is uncertain , still waiting for the US 1.9 Trillion stimulus approval status by March 15 in their Senate. I think the bond yield rising and inflation risk (>2.%)are all part of the economy stabilizing.

Investor moving out due to the SPV issues . Last year the new minister (PN) awarded the spectrum to Altel,digi,celcom,maxis and TM equally , only after 3 months change of government. This was U turn after the Telcos make a huge complain. All telco share price has drop since 1st qtr 2020, and now with the SPV set up, still very uncertain on how this will work. Initially it was mention 15Bil will be from Govt and now mixed messages that it will come from the private sector. Meaning get the Telco funding's to run 5G infrastructure and least it back to them?
This is industry is screwed by the politicians. However this allows us to pick the share price at rock bottom and as at the end of the day, customers are still waiting for 5G roll out.
Who will get the best spectrum ? Maxis has the best infrastructure to use 5G with TM controlling the fiber . Altel will usually lease it out to celcom /others to get money for doing nothing.
Altel is own by Al-bukary group .The tycoon runs various monopolies based on government licences such as in the distribution of rice and inspection of road vehicles and controls the postal service, several ports and media companies and now Telco. Welcome to malaysia. I am not concern as I am willing to wait as Telco is a hot necessity in this world

Should be 4.60+- reached support level. Getting old sorry but the rest of the analysis is pet chart.

The 5G SPV will be headed by Ralph Marshall, the right hand man for Ananda Krishnan. Notorious for the corruption cases in India during the 2G business Aircel. This case is nearly 10 years ago , this is the reason why FITCH has a downgrade on telco once SPV was set up. The Govt will have to invest 15 Billion (tax payers $) to kick start 5G in Malaysia, vs the PH plan to create a consortium to fund the set up by the Telco without using tax payers money.
Anyway if no concern on morality or corruption. Maxis might have an advantage together with TM

The downtrend has reach its super level of 3.60 . MACD about to cross over with downtrend momentum near to zero. 3.60 +- is a good entry.
Among Telco, all are fundamental well manage, only thing is to predict the sales and marketing trend. PE ratio comparison ,quite equal for telco industry.
Main concern is why is there a sell down. I just cut lost for AMMB, something we cannot predict if there is no information :(. Hopefully telco is concern on the single Govt entity SPV by MOF. The market is concern on corruptions and cronism . But this is nothing new for Malaysia market, come to think about it and the ex Maxis Chair is also heading this SPV.
No other buy signal based on technical analysis for other Telco. Good luck ,share and stay inform.

Technically it should but limited by local fund managers selling due to US and global bond markets .We have to watch this but still a good buy at around 10+. Good luck

http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-historical-data/malaysia/10-years/

Malaysia 10 years bond yield also on the up trend. But it has been normal at 4% for many years, drop when interest rate are low but lets wait and see what Bank Negara will do.

Traditionally, when bond yields go up, investors start reallocating investments away from equities and into bonds, as they are much safer. As bond yields rise, the opportunity cost of investing in equities goes up, and equities become less attractive.

Also, a rise in bond yields raises the cost of capital for companies, which in turn compresses the valuations of their stocks. This is theory in normal conditions, not sure how this will impact KLSE.

On the US bond yield rising, it stabilized on Friday night , this will reduce the jitters in APAC stocks. We can never run away from the US macro economics as this will provide signal where the money flows and many policy to make fund managers decide which investment assets to dive in. India and Japan yield is also rising and make stocks less attractive if Malaysia follows, it will also impact KLSE. Bond markets is not for us but we have to monitor this bearish news.
I suspect the stabilized US Bond will not have major impact next week and partly foreign funds are already at the all time low. Btw Tenaga has it Bond/Sukuk yield at around 2+% Stabil . No time to check on government bond trend. Not easy to make money :)
I suspect US stocks will go sideways until the March 15, 1.9 B stimulus decision. Short term volatility for Tenaga/KLSE but with more money creation by the FEDs, we should see long term USD to weakened (below 4 by some local bank economics). No intention to swap Tenaga with such uncertainty in the market. Good Luck everyone next week.

I am also curious on the rejection of the higher price for the past weeks even after the special dividend announcement. We cannot be certain on the need for EPF to sell to rebalance the epf funds to pay dividend into the funds. It is a technical accounting principle to see the dividend in the book before another round of investment decision. This is part of portfolio rebalancing. Usually will happen through Mar.
We don't have insider information but looking at the price action
RSI/MACD/Bollinger there is no major concern. RSI slightly oversold , MACD divergent last 2 weeks still intact and seeing a wedge forming. Good sign.Bolinger is on upper band for the past weeks.(need to monitor the pressure to move down the average line). Doji pattern uncertain.

Hard to explain without charts, but i believe no major concern, keep eyes wide open.
Global economic trends in the US has to be monitored as well. Hope the senate will approve the 1.9 trillion US stimulus in March 15. Major trigger for fund managers.
Glove counters sell down will mostly continue for next few weeks as the sell momentum is still strong. Tenaga still going stronger in current volatile situation. Lower risk vs return.
Good luck and continue to share information for retailers to decide.

Congrats Everyone . And thank you everyone that has provide critical information. They have nearly 300k of paper profit due to accounting principle and capital allowance. Technically is a flat quarter but lets monitor Q1...
Please continue to be true watchmen for retail investors sake. Cheers and Happy Chap Goh Meh !

I remove my earlier post due to big Typo error :(. Q4 net profit should be around 1.2 -1.4 Billion range due to account policy and capital allowances if other operating condition remains the same. Once the foreign and local funds managers rebalance their portfolio by march , strong earnings and if Dividends/special Dividends are declared within the same month, expect a strong turn around . Hope the US 1.9 trillion stimulus is approved in the senate in March, this will allow liquidity to flow to this region as well amid a strengthening ringgit. Tenaga is lower risk investment and (don't worry about the 2017-2019 earnings drop due to CAPEX in overseas market/volatile input cost- this is over now)

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/767925/utility-sector-earnings-expected-to-grow-11

From UOB...old news but it is good discipline to understand the business you plan to invest in. I am hoping for a special dividend declaration within this few weeks. Tenaga dividend policy is 50-60% of earnings unless the choose to donate as CSR program. All the best !

Oh I just realized Qtrly report will be delayed to March. 2021 earnings are expected to grow by 11% . Klse short term is controlled by sentimental; long term by fundamental. Volume are too small currently. Have to wait for local and foreign fund managers to make the move. Good luck everyone.

@MYWB. Thank you for highlighting the coal input price increase to about USD70 per MT. The average forecast is at USD 75 per MT based on 2020 annual report. Anything above the average pricing TNB will kick in the ICPT cost pass thru.
I am not aware of the super commodity cycle , but sure is intriguing . No cost of concern for the share holders but as customers i hate to pay higher bill. Usually coal price will increase in the winter and drop back down during summer months. No cause for alarm at the moment. MACD chart still in buy mode and no cross over signal at the moment . 9.70 was the buy signal 2 weeks back if not mistaken.
But I do appreciate all watchmen to trigger thoughts and analysis to keep us on our toes. Thank you.

@Tree Top View
So refreshing to read good honest analysis compare to the glove forum. I once tried to provide simple data advice on wrong assumptions and half truth and was compounded with expletives. I have stop giving advice to start looking into recovery stocks as a hedge. The safest bad based on key ratio ROE/PB/PE/current ratio..and overall risk return is still Tenaga. I was also looking into Yinson for oil and gas which I believe is cyclical in nature. Any observation on other recovery industry apart from utility? Cheers to you and may everyone prospers.

Coal is the cheapest at the moment however any cost increase there is a pass through mechanism. Not to debate on carbon tax but in general tnb is also committed on solar farms and gas. Anyway the part about being the government cash cow is also true but in general I do wish the government can be more predictable. Everyone deserves that. Previous issues was on the solar fit in license was given to certain quarters and technically this is a like subsidies to make money. This is known fact but not a concern now. Have a good trading week and Gong xi Fatt Choy.

MACD(Day) finally cross over during the last trading day. I think we should be on a reversal . This forum is to share to allow fellow investors to learn and earn. I personally are into recovery stocks and has move from pandemic to recovery stocks. If anyone uses other analysis pls share when leading indicators are clear. Tenaga fundamentals are not a concern. Good luck everyone.

@staedy ,
No intention to hoodwink anyone,
Supermax is still a good company to invest on at the moment, everyone is still struggling on the projection but we should balance our portfolios if we see something risky.
Important is to provide facts and figure so that everyone is well inform be it positive or negative. you can also check with US CDC all provide the same statement.
I am struggling to figure if overcapacity will happen in the industry once covid is under control.

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/COVID-19VaccineGloveGuidance.pdf

1) Confirm gloves not needed when giving vaccines.
https://nurse.org/articles/cdc-ok-with-gloveless-vaccines/
2) 110 million vaccines administered to date. Efficacy report continue to be good. Many fake anti vaxxers new around.
3) Worldometer side clearly shows global rate dropping sharply. Malaysia is badly manage , no long term concern .
4) Gloves will still be needed but do not be overly optimistic about the growth of this industry.
5) The reason PE is lower for Glove/PPE industry is that it is based on special event condtion and is lower compare with PE for technology stock that is on a growth path like E-Car, Semicon or 5 G. To hope gloves will be a mainstream usage is unlikely event.

MACD indicators, crossover signal is about to merge. If today closing maintain as in the morning, very good signal to buy. Anyway very rare people look into fundamentals and technical. Many just have wishful thinking on investment. Good luck and stay safe for CNY

On a soft note. Tenaga is a retirees counter. Those looking for ~10% profit including the dividends . This is a gem, old person's stock. We cannot stand the speculative stocks. Look at the expletives in the glove counters. Last year divident at ~9% and yearly~ 5-6 % is much better then FD. :)