Don't miss the boat already moving

Oil and Gas price has increase 2-3 x compares to the forecasted in the budget on the OnG oil rent revenue. This is really positive news for our GDP and KLSE if continues at the sweet spot of ~100 usd /barrel. Opportunity on OnG and KLSE in general. Risk is always geo political situation and drastic global slowdown.

https://www.worldoil.com/magazine/2021/august-2021/special-focus/offshore-energy-will-power-the-world-2021-2040-fpso-forecast

Be patience, find a good entry point . Should see qtr to qtr good news and make it easier to trade on a uptrend

Will it be liquidated? 2 cents can buy ? If they can spin off and focus on what's left in the business.

High oil price will be here to stay again since the last oil bull run in 2014 . PE ratio at >5 and BAB management has been more prudent with so many issues the last 5 years . KLSE always has a good run during high oil price. BAB one of the best bet.

<firehawk> You are right ICPT mechanism allows TNB to raise the tarrifs if not it is consider under recovery and borne by the government . Bare in mind this is technically a revenue and put under short term receivables with the notion Govt will pay within a year. When govt pay it will be put under cash flow and not under revenue anymore as it has been capture earlier. The problem is 19 billions receivable are ~50% government and 50% industry. Govt only committed 6 billion this year and the concern on the commitment is still there

On the technical front as TTV first notice the Cup and handle is very prominent. The last two candles looks bullish . We have passed the high volume sell down in mid june, should pass >9 Resistance at 9.25 and go side ways for longer period . However with US and Europe market not seeing a bottom yet we have to be cautious on this front.

https://www.tnb.com.my/suppliers-investors-media-relations/financial-info/#quarterly-results
I don't see any concerted effort from analyst in shooting down the receivables concern anymore, but the overall report is better than expected, they manage to improve operation cost overall due to the excess capacity and reduction of coal usage (subsidize gas alternative) even with the increase in demand. (pretty good operation/cost management). Another impressive projection is the EV car business that will slowly eat into gasoline business. And projection revenue is exponential ramp from a low base from 2025 onwards. 2030 expect 1.3billion revenue. I was skeptical on EV before but looking at global trend , it continues to surpass prediction. EBIT margin is lower but analyst was far too pessimistic when the sell off begin last quarter.

cash flow issues does not look too good. 14.8 billion draw down loan vs 1.5 bil. However total group borrowing is at 62 bil vs 51 bil a year ago. Don't like the idea have to borrow money to pay dividend.

I am sure the analyst will not like the fact receivables are not paid yet. Was only expecting record breaking revenue to be at high 17.5. Mixed bag of news. See how the analyst take it. Was expecting 22 cents if receivables are paid and if analyst already price this in, we will hv a better show. At least not in the red. Miss that chap understand. Happy Merdeka

Anyone any Idea on the Quarterly report :( ? Very late, could be after merderka?

Buy volume is back . Good luck fellow prospectors.

Malaysia (GDP) grew 8.9 per cent in Q2, Bank negara expected better in Q3? Malaysia economy is among the best to recover from the Covid-19 and the oil price certainly help. OnG counters has not really moved as some are worried about demand destruction in 2023 due to global recession. I still think Asian will do well, money to flow to this region.

Good time to enter. high oil price will be here to stay. US will end their 1 million bpd release from the reserves end of September. Expect more spike by then.

TTV, we can't be sure . Sorry Just assumptions, can be on monday 29 or 30 as it has happen before. As for the technical, we are still seeing an uptrend , we are still seeing a lower high based on yesterday closure. Cup and handle looks very similar pattern. I think important is the receivables payment from gomen and also industry, how much of the 14 Billion is paid the last 3 months will be key. REV and PBT is usually standard and predictable for TNB. I think the market already know this and waiting for confirmation.

Hope to see some strength today. Touching the lower high yesterday. I don't think it will go below 8.50. 2 more days to qtrly . Better have your strategy ready :)

Not all have the guts to do scalping with big volume and do it when we see very clear signals and confirmation :)

Better to combine both Technical and fundamentals to play Tenaga. Majority are mid term and long term players and don't have the training and time to be a day trader. Market is expecting lets say > 22 cents of dividend and the receivables are being paid to honor the ICPT mechanism. Good news usually comes in droves when the big boys market feels it is the right time . Hopefully will break the 9.25 after the Qtrly. If not might have to rethink the stragtegy....

8.90 should be able to break easily to 9.00 based on the June 1-8 low volume downtrend. Maybe hover until 9 until qtrly. Will never know with a raging bull, anything can happen :). As for ICPT subsidy , makes no sense for tax payers money to subsidize the commercial and industrial rate and also houses with 5 aircons :(

Teofrank . Looks like a Raging bull , 200 ma is a bit too late to predict reversal :) but a good confirmation and relieve to know. Thanks

Still wondering why the net short position is still at 0.20% and they are not covering the short position. I think still more opportunity for huge uptick once the shorties decides to close their position else risk of being short squeeze.

Less resistance than expected. Market expecting good news. If buying interest continue should see a very quick uptick until 9 and another resistance at 9.25. (will need a good Qtrly to generate buying support to clear this)

3 green soldiers pattern . If the wick shadow shows too much today, we might see a retracement tomorrow before any uptick. Only for short term trading. If we see strong closure at the end of trading with no wick shadow, might continue the uptrend. I doubt will pass the resistance of ~8.8 without some consolidation. Let see, 1 more week to the Qrly

If you look at the 2019 analyst report. Tnb has lots of plans to increase ebit By venturing into global energy and I think retail Co is doing just fine without needing capital injection via IPO. Genco to focus on generations and maintenance . Not sure what will happen to ipp in the long run.

Let's wait for more clarity on this spin off IPO . Tnb still owns 100:-%? Mother shareholders to be given shares in genco? Percentage?... Many unanswered questions still. But positive to increase share holder total value

https://www.tnb.com.my/assets/news_and_highlights/Analyst_Briefing_-_Proposed_Internal_Reorganisation.pdf

Ttv thanks for the reply. Many ridiculous comment to filter. The current Ta will be offset by spinoff IPO. Next year but genco ipo , we have to understand how much mother shareholders will be awarded the baby share ? By percentage ? This is deem positive for shareholders valuation. If you go back to the 2019 news it stats clearly the strategy but was in hold due to covid . IPO needs to be done during positive market conditions

I personally believe we are in start of KLSE bull run .1) if oil price goes on for 6 more months at 100 average (sweet spot), not too high to cause inflation 2) Election theme as Msia is flush with extra cash from oil revenue. (budgeting becomes much easier. 3) GDP forecast is better than expected 2H 2022 4) Inflation is tame in US and locally is very much in control . Risk is geopolitical and local political foolishness, other then that we are ok.

TNB declared 5.8 billion Minister declare 6.51 billion :) Typical , 2half 2022 should be paid in 2023 budget I think...

<TNB Website>For the period 1 January 2022 - 30 June 2022, there was an additional fuel and other generation costs amounting to RM7.0 billion that translates to an ICPT surcharge of 11.81 sen/kWh. This is due to the increase in global fuel price - coal that soar to USD265/MT as compared to USD79/MT set in the base tariff for Regulatory Period 3. Among the reasons for the increase in coal price was due to the ongoing global crisis and world coal supply constraints.

Due to the additional fuel and generation costs for period 1 January 2022 – 30 June 2022, Government has allocated RM2.3 billion to cover the costs. Apart from that, Government has also allocated a total of RM3.5 billion to ensure that the current ICPT surcharge is maintained for all non - domestic customers such as commercial and industrial rather than being charged the full surcharge at 11.81 sen/kWh. This brings the total amount of rebates and ICPT surcharge costs borne by the Government to RM5.8 billion.

And also short position has not change much. still around 0.2% from high of 0.21-0.22 total net short. Wondering why they have not close their, could be they loan it a much higher price during the 9.25 range EPF/Insider would have known the I-citras.. withdrawal decision much earlier.

Not bad. I think the market is anticipating good qtrly. Insider should be able to see 1) if the gomen is paying the ICPT receivable on a monthly basis . 2) Dividend only will a few insider can see this and will be a last financial decision before the book closure. As long as the market see ICPT mechanism is honored , IB will love this and with recent energy policy plan out , ESG rating will improve . Current resistance is at 8.75 -8.80(people love this number). Beyond this 9.00 could be easily reach with very strong resistance at 9.25. I suspect next 2 weeks will hover below 8.80. We should see a good U shape as predicted . TTV any comment ? 9.00 is way back in dec 21 :( not sure how strong the buy momentum

Welcome Deekay. All analysis are based on risk assessment and potential on data visible to us. I like tenaga is because we can see the operation data easily. Only cannot predict the politics/internal decision and the taxman. Trade at own risk :)

:) we can make money at any price . Just trade smartly

Last candle looks like the tail end of the flag. See if it can test 8.50 today or tmrow. Good short term/long term entry or some pocket money. Trade what you can handle. It looks like a very classical chart but we cannot be 100% sure. Good luck everyone. 8.75 might be another strong resistance next 2 weeks until Qrtly. 14.50 :)

Flag pole and pennant flag pattern forming, good entry if can break out in a few more candle. But the flag is a bit long as market is still undecided . No one can be 100% sure. have to find your confirmation and decide

Very complex data as TNB has excess load capacity of ~20-30% percent, they can reduce the excess capacity to less then 20% but risk of a cascading shutdown during peak usage. This is one way for them to cut some fuel cost. If someone has the time can also do the calculations base on the cost per kWh in the data from jan -June . Average it out . We can randomly see it only increase ~3 cents per kWH from Jan o June (24 cents to 27 cent per Kwh ). We also know ICPT +3.7 cents Kwh for non domestic and +2 cents for domestic will be recovered. TNB should not be in the red. Somebody can help check this too.

Based on the surahanjaya , Mwatt usage from 324.9 K MWH in Jan vs June 382.5k MWH, basic usage increase to 18% in 6 months . The cost is not linear due to its tariff tiering. But on average we should see a 9-10 % increase in revenue. I think 17 -17.5 billion would be the best bet based on this data. Superficial but profil can be 500- 1bil but not in the red. Important to look at the receivables recovery , how much from the 14 Bil? This will path way on the Dividend announcement. The market can be unpredictable.

Deekay and TTV. based on STenaga https://www.st.gov.my/en/web/general/details/364 we can calculate the daily fuel cost and comfirms it with Q1 data.Q1 average fuel cost averages at 7.5 billion, Q2 will be around 8.5-9 Billion. With RP3 ICPT Revenue expected to be around 17 Bil (conservative) . Q1 other operating expenses is around 7 bil. Total Q1 expenses is at 14.5 Bil (7.5 b is fuel). Q2 projected operating expenses is 9 bil (fuel)+ 7.5 billion =16.5 billion. Really a very thin margin unless revenue goes beyond 17 billion. Very rough estimates but the analyst are not expecting much as reflect in the share price. If revenue goes below 17 billion we might see just a small profit. Very rough estimates.

Ladies and gentlemen. Please give us a break in the petty humour. This forum was meant to educate and share with data and analysis. It's getting annoying

Ttv. You can see a flag pole forming with lower low getting higher. I think next week will test 8.50 and break. 8.75 another resistance. Selling volume will be also be high. I think only the quarterly report can break this end of the month. Hopefully not break this. I am very hope full though.

Will go sideways until next week, based on the current average volume. Once it reach 8.75 should see a faster recovery. Good time to accumulated if you think the quarterly profit will be above expectation. We can be sure Revenue will be all time record but still an element of risk on the expenses/receivables/impairment. Good luck ! 14.50 or 4.50 coming :)

Ah pon or no ah pon does not matter, high sell volume now till 8.75... Looks like buying interest is still there but not very strong to break through. Will take some time recover till the quarterly report in 3 weeks time. Interesting time

8.20 support level. Based on the trading volume in Jun 17/20 , profit taking from should take place around this range to 8.25 Looks well supported.

The momentum will sizzle out if no local institutional support, the buy volume is too low at the moment, flip side so is the sell volume. Retailers will start to take profit above >8.50. Let see how it goes. US FEDs seems to project US likely to have a soft landing and dollar index starting to reverse, expect for foreign funds continue to flow in, hopefully to KLSE.

Lower volume breakout. Was expected more sell volume at this price range. Market seems to be more positive , profit taking will most likely take place at a much higher price. 8.5-8.75. USD is expected to stabilized against ringgit. Oil price should remain above USD100 and brings more liquidity to KLSE, Remember Tenaga is >50% by Khazanah/EPF/ASB/KWAP/PNB. Currently the buying is mainly foreign.

Yep hope they can recover the majority of 14 bil receivables . This will allow better dividend payout. I am still hopeful for a >1.2 bil net profit , in a >16.5 Bil revenue range :) Good luck .

Very high volume traded at 8.25-8.75 from Jun 9-20. Will take some strong volume to overcome this resistance as traders will likely to recover their investment. Q2 result will either make or brake this momentum.

Don't miss the boat 14.50 coming

Oil market Money managers have started to close out short positions on oil. (Oilprice.com)
The oil price slump that started mid-June could be about to reverse and by sept once Biden's 1 million barrel a day release from US reserves is over, we could we a huge upside again. Once bank Negara raise the interest rate to match the fed's rate. (another 0.5-0.75 this year) we could see MYR strengthen again and money will flow back in to local market and makes it easier to trade when you see comparative liquidity in the market. Positive sign are there on a KLCI reversal , expect GDP indicator to be on the upside of the forecast. US GDP data will be in this week, i don't expect a recession as Biden just release extra oil reserves in Q2 and based on the news it might be a soft recession in 2023.