Another area of analysis we need to do is the IPP contract retirement , when and possibility. This will remove 60% out of the total generation cost. Not easy to get this data. I remember suppose to be for 21 years for YTL and Malakoff and other cronies companies. Petronas gas is also subsidizing this as well

TTV I like your humor :)... he has half a truth , keep us on our toes check 2011 Q3 and Q4 :)

You make a very good point and keep investors thinking. The losses in primarily due to distillate cost which is 50% higher then the subsidize Petronas gas and also potential profit after tax losses due to taxation and high depreciation/write off. All are possible as we don't have a real view on what's can potential happen but we have to dig further to understand the industry. The coal price/subsidize gas is well control by the ICPT mechanism. Wish everyone earns money . The shorts has stabilize at 0.21% and seen a few good candles lately. Have a great investment

In order for TNB to make a loss, there need to be a surprise like coal and gas disruption and they have to use distillate to power up the plant like what happen in 2011. Remember excess capacity is at 40% (ridiculous) and the plan is to reduce it to 20% in 2035. And also the ridiculous IPP cost is 60% of our the Operating expenses. Nothing to do with the share price but they retiring the IPP contract in stages, in the end the rakyat still has to pay for it. Should not make a lost unless there is breaking news of lack of coal and gas resulting in usage of distillates

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/AmInvestResearch/2022-07-21-story-h1626880521-Economic_Highlights_Malaysia_ndash_Trade_continues_to_grow_robustly

I think malaysia is still on track to hit the GDP of 6% and if continue for the next few months, investor will come in. We are doing a lot better then most countries and hopefully KLSE will follow suit :) . Managing inflation will be important moving forward (without too much subsidies and increase of interest rate has to follow to strengthen the Ringgit)

Liquidity in the market will dictate how KLSE/Asia market will perform. Majority of stocks are undervalue no matter how good the forward PE will be. GDP is expected to 5.5-6% makes no difference as long as USD continue to strengthen and the FEDs continue to raise interest rates. The only good thing i see is the strengthening oil price will make it easier for Bank Negara to decide on its monetary policy to stabilize inflation and GDP growth. They have to raise the rate soon and not bothered by populist movement by the politicians. Everyone wins is once the liquidity improves. Else we can continue to fight with each other why our stocks are not moving. US is still king at controlling the money market as long as we follow the Bretton woods agreement. USD will continue to strengthen and next month they will increase another 0.75-1.0. So need to be careful.

Again ICPT receivables will impact the future cash flow as it has already been recorded as current assets and when it first receive it. The market is duly worried about this cash flow turn over based on last quarter report.

Will know in a months time will TNB make a loss? Lets look at the Ops ex by qtr. Q1 2021 to Q1 2022. 9.1 B//10B/10.8B/14.5B/13.3B. Revenue 11.5B/12.4B/13B/15.7B/15.7B. Revenue is very predictable at a range of 16-17 B this quarter. The key now is the opex that will drive the profit/loss. Rough number will be around 15 Bil OpEX provided no other surprises from tax man and impairment (depreciation etc...). Any financial guru that has time to detail this will be appreciated. The market is spook by the regulatory of the ICPT that gomen always has a hand in it and not its business model.

Ya betul. At least today we can see 2 good candles side by side. A Long and a hammer . Let's see a glimmer of hope. Have a nice weekend everyone

Hope Khazanah, PNB and EPF start investing more in local equities as the retailers are restless and making lots of noises. Not easy to make money in bear market , everyone expecting the downturn to end soon . Bursa is so lonely without the big money and can't rely on the foreign investors to come in. Still remembers the good old times when you just pick any GLC stocks . High oil price couple with election year with stable macro economy. 2 out of 3 still not that bad

Just to top up to TTV. Accounts Receivable is considered an asset and having slow turnover of receivables can negatively affect TNB bottom line. It will not impact the short term profitability. Meaning as long as there is no surprise taxation or impairment we should not see Q2 profitability impact . Receivables are already capture as assets in in the balance sheet. Concern is the cash flow to pay the supplier which i do not think will happen. As long as the revenue continue to grow and profit margin maintains around 5%, it will be stable business, unless the gomen choose to screw it up by not paying the receivables timely.

Important to look at how the ICPT receivables will be manage. Recent news mention that they are "confident" govt will commit but when and how much/staggered/quarterly is still uncertain ? Total receivables 14 bil in Q1 2022. 9 billion from ICPT (govt). Each qtr expect >3.5 bil receivables from ICPT. Not forgetting the 5 billion from other industries/commercial (could be bad dept). I would suspect government will opt for at least a staggered ICPT recovery payment of >3.5 billion qtrly and again high oil price has improve the government coffers, the reason for the confident.

Post removed.Why?

KLSE has always done well during high oil prices , lagging around 6 months. I don't think oil price will go below 100 or even 110 looking at the current news and the trajectory towards 140 looks likely end of year. MYR will start strengthening and inflow of money towards country with net exporter of oil. Important to look into fundamentally strong company and big funds favorite and sabar for 6 months :)

TTV ; I saw that on last thur and fri net short position. Now sure is it a mistake as you don't see the volume on friday. TNB fundamentals has not change mcuh for the last few quarters only volatile reaction from the big funds. Hopefully it is the final shake out by the big funds before they accumulate. Getting old oredi :)

Don't throw in the towel yet. If TNB fail the country fail and to equate TNB to a glove company is simply foolish to any reasoning. Bare in mind need to know how the big funds are moving . Oil price of 140 will inject extra 20 Billion to the fiscal revenue based on the 2022 budget of 66 usd per barrel assumption . This is based on ASMO report : <USD1 increase in Brent oil prices is associated with an increase in real GDP of approximately MYR 646 million, an increase in CPI levels of 0.03, and an increase in annual fiscal revenues of around MYR 339 million.> . Revenue will increase to 17-18 billion. Profit margin will be based on how much subsidies can be absorb based on the new fiscal revenue. More concern of the promise to subsidize and the oil price goes back below 100. Good long term retirement investment or throw in the towel? Your call.

Exciting days ahead for Malaysian economy. Fiscal budget was based on USD66 per barrel. Expect oil price to average 110 this year. https://www.nst.com.my/business/2022/06/805718/midf-expects-govt-record-rm737bil-petroleum-related-revenue . The last KSLE bull run was after the asian financial crisis early 1999 untill 2008 of global financial crisis.( with brief Dot com impact in 2000) . 2008 -2014 was the another bull run. (6 months short impact on 2008 crisis).End 2014 until now was bear market . High of ~1800 -1350. (with a short uptick after the 2018 election :). KLSE has always flush with cash during when oil price is rising. Do your own correlation.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
https://tradingeconomics.com/fbmklci:ind
Hope everyone wins

If oil price will continue it's trajectory to be range of 100-140 in the coming 6 more months, this will inject more USD petro dollar to malaysian economy. If has been since 10 years (2012
3 - end 2014) KLSE bull run, coincide with the rising oil price. Target strong fundamentals with good dividend yield share and we shall be ok. I don't think the sky is going to fall soon, on the contrary opportunity to enter carefully. Happy trading

KLCI index is really in bad shape. High oil price will always do good for our GDP , we might see a rally only if it sustain above 100 for next 6 months more . Really hoping the local institution is doing the shake out before their accumulation. they are not here to loose money too. Shorts are increasing back from 0.12 to 0.25 % of total net short position within ~1.5months. TNB , our national security will not do badly in the coming quarterly unless another round of special taxes. Good luck with the uncertainty.

KLCI index has been in and out of the bear market since end 2018 , High of 1870 in april. 2014 was the last good times of oil price above 80 average for 4 years till 2018. Since then KLCI has not been making much return. Can't show the chart in this forum. If brent oil price can average out 100+ per barrel. KLCI will have a good show. . Also, every USD1 increase in Brent oil prices is associated with an increase in real GDP of approximately MYR 646 million, an increase in CPI levels of 0.03, and an increase in annual fiscal revenues of around MYR 339 million. (AMRO working paper 2020). Tough call but it is already nearly 10 years of low oil price (since 2014) and is picking up again. Good luck and check your own facts carefully.

TTV, Let's see how the analyst take it. It is going to be another 3 months wait and coal price monitoring and if changes to the tariff is being call out as I don't think they can get it approved easily with election fever nearing soon.

Nothing much to show. The taxman too agreesive on tnb. Expected nett profit to be above 1 bil. Surprisingly revenue is flat even with the new tariff in Feb.

Qtrly report coming next week if no delay. Important milestone . Should be able achieve >17B Revenue and >1 Billion PBT. This will make way for better qtrly for the entire year . Need to see how the coal price impact and if any propose increase of the ICPT surcharge due to this.

Shorts will continue as buyers are week . Important is how Q1 results will be. I am still bullish to top up as TNB results tend to be easier to predict as it is regulated.
The under recovery of 3.21B in previous qtr should be reduce with Feb 022 ICBT approval. with 1.2% of demand growth roughly equals to 2,5 B in revenue. With GDP growth at ~6% ,2022 expect Qtrly revenue to be in region of 17-18B Rev. Something unseen before. PBT will be good if operating expenses can be control. But some insider dares to say TNB will post a lost :) next qtr. Easily 1.2 -1.4 Billion PBT. Do comment with data please

I don't claim to have insider information like some do :) but we have to learn to challenge the numbers and see it as it is. Only the big boys can influence Tenaga share turn around .

Thanks TTV :) Report suppose to be one day late . The message is the same trade with open eyes

~150K shorted yesterday. Support level at 9.00. If buyer continue to be weak, they will short it down further, Yesterday increase back to 0.17 percent from 0.16 of total Net short. If they are able to break 9.00 should see a strong buy back. I still think there is limited risk as more funds expected to come in to country with strong balance of payment due to the current commodity prices in OnG and Palm Oil.

Short sellers fund both side of the deal , If they see buyers are weak, they will short it down further to encourage more sellers and allow a lower price to cover. With the trend covering/buy back the downside will be limited. Today you can see the buyers were weak until 9.00/9.01 . End of today will cover at 9.02 most likely... and their job continue tomorrow :)

TTL NET Short % of TTL NSP
6,397,288 0.11
7,111,588 0.12
7,332,988 0.13
7,888,588 0.14
8,241,288 0.14
8,203,288 0.14
9,179,888 0.16
9,279,888 0.17
10,279,888 0.19
12,588,888 0.22
14,676,988 0.26
15,563,388 0.27
15,832,388 0.28
15,932,388 0.28
16,707,888 0.29
17,127,488 0.3
17,842,088 0.31
18,938,088 0.33
19,739,288 0.34
18,511,388 0.32
15,795,580 0.28
15,953,180 0.28
16,303,180 0.28
16,574,980 0.29
16,589,480 0.29
11,049,180 0.19
11,094,980 0.19
10,776,080 0.19
10,941,180 0.19
9,343,580 0.16

TTV, I too have been monitoring the shorts as the most significant predictor on the movement. MACD/RSI are all too lagging with the institutional shorts and buyers making the all the shorts and we the retail are the just the pawn. Currently it will only stabilize when the it goes below 10% of total short selling. They will ensure the prize is low enough for them to buy it back, usually at the after market the big volume are changing hands. this might take a a month or so. Before the 1st Qtr announcement, which earnings are going to be relatively positive. Sorry i can't post it in excel but transaction is from Feb22 till yesterday. If you look at the historical data the earnings and profitability will always be reflected in the stock price. Tenaga is a regulated business and easier to predict and a good choice during high inflation and uncertainty. Just sharing the data , you make the choice

Already happening on the last hour :) closing all their expired futures/options. Huge spike

Short sellers should be covering their shorts soon. From high of 0.11% to 0.28% in 14 trading days. Last two days you can see it goes the other way. Hopefully is done.

% of TTL NSP
Feb 22 0.11
23 0.12
24 0.13
25 0.14
28 0.14
Mar 1 0.14
2 0.16
4 0.19
7 0.22

Short sellers are having a field day for all the stocks. Why let a good war go to waste. The risk for short sellers is when big boys decided to buy to squeeze it up. 0.11 to 0.22 within 10 days of trading. Not much we can do but watch. I am not recommending to sell .

Very true. Fundamentals shows very strong earnings in the coming qtrs. Technical analysis is always a bit too lagging , rather looking at the RSS and volume allows us to know when to enter safely and ride the big volume . Anyway i am a bit anxious as I am all in :)

TTT, this is what i suspect too. EPF will loan it to the short sellers and if you aware of the strategy it makes it easier to earn money and also the interest from the shorts.

TTL NET Short % of TTL NSP
Feb 22 6,397,288 0.11
23 7,111,588 0.12
24 7,332,988 0.13
25 7,888,588 0.14
28 8,241,288 0.14
Mar 1 8,203,288 0.14
2 9,179,888 0.16

Shorts are still happening , we cannot see the buy or sell differences in the report but you can observe the buy sell orders activity . The shortist will work hand in hand with EPF since they know when they plan to buy/selll since a year back. Since EPF is signaling to buy, shorties will encourage more volume of sellers to come in via rumours and try to keep the price down. It is game of average of sellling high and buy low for shorties , and big funds to sell high and pick up low

Revenue in the same quarter improved 52.4 per cent to RM15.74 billion from RM10.32 billion.
- under recovery of 3.21 B, operating expense increase 67% to 14.49B
- Qtrly Revenue improved 52.4 per cent to RM15.74 billion
- demand growth of 1.2 per cent, consistent with the country's gross - domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.1 per cent.
- ESG rating is improving

The under recovery of 3.21B should be reduce with Feb 022 ICBT approval. with 1.2% of demand growth roughl equals to 2,5 B in revenue. With GDP growth at ~6% ,2022 expect Qtrly revenue to be in region of 17-18B Rev. Something unseen before. PBT will be good if operating expenses can be control.

I don't claim to have insider information like some do :) but we have to learn to challenge the numbers and see it as it is. Only the big boys can influence Tenaga share turn around .

Very lonely shorties troopers. Very easy to predict stock actually if it is not going up , it has tendency to go down. At least we choose to move from gloves to something more stable since last year. Technology too risky and oil and gas, cannot predict who gets what contract. Palm oil still ok but boring

ICPT was meant to be neutral for TNB but it was delay for the last 2 years. Govt only allow starting Feb 22. -ICPT will be review every 6 months to all offset any difference in the generation prices, especially Coal.
This is part of the strategy to protect the national energy infrastructure by allowing enough profit to reinvest in the national grid .
Separate Point:
EPF has been selling of from a high of 17.03% in Feb2021 to date of 15.8 % in Feb 2022 of total TNB shares.
This is couple with the recent shorts activities that can be seen the last quarters. Usually they work hand in hand . This matters as intrinsically TNB has not change as the business model (ICPT and monopoly as part of national infrastructure protection) is still intact . No one can predict how low will it go but we can see the shorts sell down has been very well supported at 9.00
I am eager to wait for the Qtrly report tomorow to show us where the money really is.

---Full Excerpts----
<---The ICPT implementation for period 1 February 2022 until 30 June 2022 is as follows:

DOMESTIC CUSTOMERS NON-DOMESTIC CUSTOMERS
The ICPT rate for Domestic customers is as follows:

a. The ICPT rebate of 2.00 sen/kWh from the last ICPT implementation period is maintained for all Domestic customers.

The ICPT surcharge for Non-Domestic customers is as follows:

a. An ICPT surcharge of 3.70 sen/kWh will be applicable to all Non-Domestic customers.

----------->

Excerpts from TNB website on ICPT:-
<------------------------------
Imbalance Cost Pass-Through (ICPT) implementation for the period of 1 February – 30 June 2022 are as follows:

The Government has decided to maintain the current electricity tariff schedule for all customers in Peninsular Malaysia for the 3rd Regulated Period (RP3) from 1 February 2022 to 31 December 2024 under the Incentive Based Tariff (IBR) mechanism.

Higher fuel and generation costs for the period of 1 July – 31 December 2021 has resulted to additional generation cost of RM1,672 million.

To cushion the impact of high fuel and generation cost to customers, the Government has agreed to utilize available funding from Kumpulan Wang Industri Elektrik (“KWIE”) amounting to RM715 million.

The ICPT implementation period 1 February 2022 until 30 June 2022 has been approved.
--------------------------------------->
Q4 earnings might be high 14 Billion but the PBT might be capped ~1- 1.2billion again. However good news the ICPT has been approved starting 1 feb 2022. Expact better Q1 onwards, provided Russia/Ukraine does not escalated further

Eventually shorties has to buy back, they won't get caught nearing dividend payment. Strong support at 9.00 . Qtrly end of the month with dividend announcement soon after. GDP growth at 5-6.5.
Shorties will shake out the weak holders before any uptrend is expected. How low we cannot predict.

Qtrly report coming end of the month. At the end of the day is the earnings that really counts, the rest are noises. Any ballpark prediction anywone? Based on trend/Daharki plant sale can be around 14B Revenue. PBT can be above 1.2 B hopefully. EPS of 20+ . If any negative accounting surprises will pull the stocks further down, which i don't see any at the moment.

Only the Qtrly reports will show us the direction . How cost is maintain and the 230 mill divestiture of the Daharki power plant and better Q4 revenue will increase the cash flow for the qtr. Should be able to increase the eps to 20ish pending no further surprises on how cost is maintain. Wishful thinking of Revenue nearing 14 billion and PBT of above 1.2 B. But year end accounting can be very tricky , lots of impairments loss vs the divestiture.

It has been a long one year wait. With the dividend yield of~8-9% at least we have peace of mind. Not much of a concern everyone deserves to be happy and richer but patience is key. Didn't expect the covid recovery to take more than 2 years. But omicron should b a savior variant base on the medical response not political or economic response from the ministry.
Good luck 2022.

Important is the increase revenue in Q3 amid the long MCO period. Q4 we can expect an even higher revenue 13billion ~+10% if the current economic opening is sustain. Cannot predict what EPF strategy is but they have to buy more sooner or later. Hopefully soon.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/epf-takes-profit-gains-seeks-better-timing-reenter-market

Sept data on EPF. Still selling across the board. Not sure for how long more. Hope the sun shine soon in December. Good luck everyone it has been a long wait this year.

Shorties technically will shake off the weak holders and good for the market efficiency. Tenaga is not overvalue at the moment and nothing to be concern about, only getting tired when the big funds will come in. They eventually will. But at least the volume is coming back. Good luck ! The sell placement volume looks like getting smaller yesterday.

Start of a new Qtr, I-Citra application ends, Ends. EPF sell off should taper and IB /foreign funds will return. Covid cases drop below 10k and recovery theme should be more sustanable in Q4, all electronics factories ramping and economic recovery looks a lot brighter now and 2022. Last opportunity to top up. Good luck to retailers.

This year EPF trend is to sell Qtrly ends and stabilized and uptrend within the next month. Consistently in Dec, Mar, Jun, sept... High potential on the I-Citra and other bantuan withdrawal . I citra ends sep 30, until furhter annoucement. It has a good accumulation month as it will rebound back above 10. This year we can only rely on the ~8-10% dividend . Still 3 months to go and this can be the last price below 9.8 ...Low risk entry. Good luck October.

Final discounted sale for the year :)

Tenaga still consistent , any retracement below 10 and looking at the price action, Good opportunity to buy. Might be the last round to hit below 10 for this year. Will top up , we see this quite often qtrly end.

~2.5 seems like a good price for SPMX. ~3.0 for TP, ~<6 for Harta?