https://twitter.com/delpinoeulogio/status/702265754922721280

If you don't feel comfortable holding, go sell. There's a lot of people waiting in Q. Good luck to you.

1- OPEC, Non-OPEC Should Act Promptly To Rebalance Crude Markets --Iraq OPEC Governor ------------------------------------------- 2- If OPEC, Non-OPEC Don't Act Damage Could Be Deeper, Take Time To Recover --Iraq OPEC Governor -----------------------3- Iraq Production, Exports Will Continue To Grow Steadily --Iraq OPEC Governor --------------------------- 4- Iraq Ready To Cooperate In Close Consultation With OPEC, Non-OPEC to Maintain Stability --Iraq OPEC Governor -------------------- 5- Iraq Will Try To Keep Its Oil Market Share in Asia, Europe, Americas and Other Markets --Iraq OPEC Governor ------------------- 6- OPEC Has Recently Focused On Market Share Rather Than Defending Price--Iraq OPEC Governor ---------------------------------- 7- Venz oil min says OPEC, Non-OPEC Producers to Discuss Output Freeze Mid-March ------------------------ 8 - Consultations are ongoing with all major oil producers to decide an exact date and time for the meeting, Venz oil min says ----------------

Hold

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/N00b/91824.jsp

Cost of production + tanker rates + plunge in Tang = I am very optimistic about the results.

It's not a coincidence that every O&G counter that I look at is red except this. Hold

I call bs on Iran. Once they're done exporting what they have in storage (80m) barrels, they won't hit 2m exports before 2019.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-wrought-venezuela-orders-bank-notes-by-the-planeload-1454538101

Hold

https://dwq4do82y8xi7.cloudfront.net/x/HTejh7z9/ healthy retraction

Revenue from oil -----> Operations in Kazakhstan -------> Cost of production in Kazakhstan is lower than 20$ -----> Tanker rates near record low ------> Kazakhstan Tang at record low -----> lowest oil price in q4 2015 was ~$34. It doesn't take a genius. Hold

Hold

Hold

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/N00b/91533.jsp

Break even for production costs is under $20 for Kazakhstan. Hold

That's not correct though. Whether it's from Saudi Arabia or from other countries, The USA produces less than it consumes (deficit)

Well said, and you are indeed correct, I am making the assumption that oil is constant (Which I pointed out in my first post when I said "Ignore external forces") However, my point was to value oil as a commodity based on balanced supply and demand, which isn't the case now. I was simply referring to the "intrinsic" exchange rate between the value of dollars and the value of oil. Finally, just like you said that more oil production should push prices down. More dollar supply should push the dollar down.

Because "prices" go up when the amount of money in circulation goes up. When there are $10 in the world and you own $1, you own 10% of world dollars. Five years after and money supply increases but you still have the same dollar. Now there are $15 in the world and you have $1. So, now you own 6.6% (compared to 10% five years before) of world dollars even though you have not spent anything.

Very well put together Mr. Loong. I must however point out that oil is being forced down (using extreme supply) due to external forces i.e. politics, etc. If one were to ignore such forces (which is impossible, and illogical to do, but I am doing it just for the sake of the argument). A true valuation based on "unaltered market-based supply and demand" suggests $53-62 per barrel. http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/N00b/91533.jsp

Hold

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-16/saudi-oil-minister-says-kingdom-agrees-to-freeze-oil-production

Russia and Saudi Qatar and Venezuelan oil ministers want to meet.... what do you think they'll talk about? The weather?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-15/saudi-russian-oil-ministers-said-to-plan-talks-in-doha-tuesday-ikoag6a0

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-15/saudi-russian-oil-ministers-said-to-plan-talks-in-doha-tuesday-ikoag6a0

@ Pavillion: "Some oil experts question whether refineries are capable of processing a significant percentage of stored Iranian oil. Iranian officials have stated that condensate represents the vast majority of hydrocarbon products in floating storage. Because the Iranian condensate contains high sulphur and toxic mercury content [lower quality], it does not command the export market demand enjoyed by North American light, sweet condensate." <---- They are offering discounts on oil they drilled during sanctions but did not export (Condensate that's just been sitting there).


Link: http://info.drillinginfo.com/iran-oil-and-and-the-new-accord-overview-and-analysis/

Although it has Veto power, production from Saudi Arabia is only about 1/3 of OPEC's production. Not everyone has the luxury of $600+ billion in reserves. A chain is only as strong as its weakest link.

Well, to get an indication, look at their stock market which since the beginning of 2015 is up by more than 320%. Yeah... inflation.

http://s27.postimg.org/9ro583tw3/venzuala.png

USD is weakening. Don't confuse the two

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/iran-says-ready-to-talk-with-saudi-over-oil-market-conditions

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iran-saudi-idUSKCN0VJ00X

"Stocks always go up..."

http://s12.postimg.org/j9vqv5dal/stocks_always_go_up.png

Keep your eyes on this http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/5115.jsp (Entry price is determined by you).

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/N00b/90656.jsp <-- oil

Budget is out, market needs a few hours to digest. No mention of any changes to Labuan,

Be aware; I see a big oil spike coming.

@Upsidedown119,

Though it might be to lengthy for this medium, I can probably sum it up in a few hundred words, it will have to wait to another time though.


meanwhile: http://www.amazon.com/The-Death-Money-Collapse-International/dp/1591846706 <--- If you forgo all the doom and gloom conclusions in this book, you'll find that the research put into it really highlights the "competition" you referred to between The Fed and the PBOC.

In a nutshell, China and Russia have been demanding reforms in global affairs. IMF, UN, Security Council, etc. As of now, these supranational institutions are very skewed towards the west (competing interest as you put it). So, while on the surface it might seem economical factors, it is political factors that are driving the "markets" for "now".

Briefly? China is indirectly flexing muscles.

Watching China play chess with the Fed.... 上屋抽梯

C3 is also a consideration, albeit it expires a month before C40

I should add that if you foresee more QE coming in the next 1-6 months... FBMKLCI-C40 (Bid: 2.5 sen: value 0) is the option with the highest risk/highest return. HOWEVER, It's more like gambling at that point.

@Upsidedown119

I apologies for the late reply. I haven't really looked into the budget. For now my focus is more macro. Yet, any changes to the way Labuan is structured will be bad for big names on the market. (See Malaysian Satay)

briefly;

1- I expect the fed to fold tonight, which as you know will produce the same effect as the ECB. But at the same time, I cannot be sure maybe they will hike up again (unlikely but possible) .

2- Yuan will be devalued in the medium short term. Followed by what amounts to 15% devaluation through 2016. (almost guaranteed).


The way I see it: Participation in KLSE now is not advised as there is a lack of clarity. but if you must,

1- long term holding ("KSL", "Asiapac", maybe... "Fiamma") based on when you enter.

2- Short term calls (bullish outlook) on KLSE (FBMKLCI-C12 is the most "reasonably" priced call warrant at this time)

3- Short term puts (bearish outlook) (FBMKLCI-HN is the most "reasonably" priced at this time)

And if you really want to laugh... compare crude and brent futures prices. to the "OPEC basket"

Whether the market goes up or down, the volatility will make it ideal for day trading. Just don't be the last one holding the hot potato.

nearly eliminated all exposure to all markets (only one company left in klse portfolio) . This can go both ways. I would rather stay on the sidelines for now.

ECB will most likely cause a massive short-squeeze today. I am done shorting (rigged markets) Going long.

@upsidedown,

A- While you are correct in what you wrote, my emphasis was on KLSE and JCI being positive YTD while everything else was negative.


B- foreign participation in KLSE year to date "net":

Jan 5: (130M)
Jan 6: (76M)
Jan 7: 21M
Jan 8: (295M)
Jan 11: (134M)
Jan 12: (186M)
Jan 14: (71M)

In other words roughly 900 million ringgit in withdrawals since the beginning of the year.

Now, headlines this: http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/01/13/khazanah-pumps-in-rm1bil-into-valuecap/ make sense.

B- As far as the S&P drop.. the 'high yield' credit market gave a very dire warning, but very few listened http://s18.postimg.org/e7bziup2x/creditmarket_SPX.jpg

See anything interesting? http://s22.postimg.org/6pyoqq1tt/Capture.png (KLSE in orange)

Spot the odd couple.... (KLSE is orange) http://s22.postimg.org/6pyoqq1tt/Capture.png

~1575

China rate cut ----> Fed no longer has to worry about china slowing down ----> December rate hike back on the table -----> EM back to August levels. (Prescription analysis - not prediction of events)

http://s15.postimg.org/qg42ssxiz/FOMC_negative_0.jpg

Here's a very general guideline to go by:

http://s29.postimg.org/qf0al5dwn/winners_and_losers_tightening_0.jpg

if the Fed does not tighten, just flip the winner and loser columns.