i can clearly see that you had got into an 'ajaran sesat' (but you are unaware) and you are thinking yo can guide others to the same path you think is the one and only right path...to the ultimate destination

but i have already seen the end destination

i feel it is you who needs guidance

since i know where the guide is leading me to ..and i know the path...as such i do not need to follow any 'guide'..

with my self deduction & intuitions i can see most of this guide are leading to a sesat path....i.e, 'ajaran sesat

Post removed.Why?

buy intel....they are doing well (sis works there)

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/INTC:US

@Alex, agree...almost all sectors are affected... and i can tell vaccine will not be available anytime soon ( 2 years at the earliest)


Posted by freetospeak > May 24, 2020 2:22 PM | Report Abuse

Do u know even a 0.01% death rate in vaccine canresult more death in the covid itself...becoz not everyone got covid but everyone wannna get vaccinated....so u can go calculate.

Post removed.Why?

In my opinion, gloves demand will infact soar when a country eases lockdown. As much as other industries may benefit by the easing, gloves industry will equally benefit if not more.

The below is something to ponder deep:


- The hospitals will be operating at a much higher patients capacity who were hesitant / constrained to visit healthcare earlier due to risk of Covid 19 infections.

- imagine what happens when the airline industries start operating again? every check in counter staff & all staff (stewardess) who works there will be using gloves. Same goes to other public transport booths

- the same goes to many other industries (tourism & hotels) when they start operating as they normally do

Serbadk is a good company , but i am unable to comprehend how they can do their services in middle east when all flights are restricted

By next qtr we will see the true implication by the dip in its earnings

and the same goes to Gloves to see the surge in earnings

This will be the true earnings going forward for both industry if new-norm does not get any better

In my opinion, gloves demand will infact soar when a country eases lockdown.
........

- The hospitals will be operating at a much higher patients capacity who were hesitant / constrained to visit healthcare earlier due to risk of Covid 19 infections.

- imagine what happens when the airline industries start operating again? every check in counter staff & all staff (stewardess) who works there will be using gloves. Same goes to other public transport booths

- the same goes to many other industries (tourism & hotels) when they start operating as they normally do

.....................

something to PONDER deep....

In my opinion, gloves demand will infact soar when a country eases lockdown.
........


- The hospitals will be operating at a much higher patients capacity who were hesitant / constrained to visit healthcare earlier due to risk of Covid 19 infections.

- imagine what happens when the airline industries start operating again? every check in counter staff & all staff (stewardess) who works there will be using gloves. Same goes to other public transport booths

- the same goes to many other industries (tourism & hotels) when they start operating as they normally do



https://thewire.in/government/covid-19-long-lockdown-counterproductive

However, what happens if a prolonged lockdown of over a month itself leads to more deaths than it saves?


Let’s focus on India, which has thousands of patients for non-COVID-19 ailments, including heart disease, stroke, cancer, kidney ailments, diabetes, respiratory infections, maternity and child-birth related care and complications, serious injuries, other infectious diseases etc., who need emergency or frequent medical care, some of which is only possible in hospitals. The prolonged lockdown has created serious problems for such patients to access medical services and medicines.

Already, fixed surgeries and procedures have been cancelled.

There do exist some general provisions for serious patients to obtain special passes, and also to maintain supply of medicines. Despite this, many patients are facing great difficulties in accessing essential medicines and medical services. Even when passes are obtained and transport arranged, people have faced inability to pay for medicines and services, as livelihoods have been disrupted by the lockdown.

Several hospitals and medical facilities are not functioning at earlier capacities and others have been diverted as exclusive COVID-19 facilities. Thus, even several patients who can afford to, may not have been able to access essential medical care.

Gloves protect you more than masks, say experts

Touching the face with contaminated hands is the most likely way in which you will catch coronavirus, occupational hygiene professor says

5 May 2020

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/gloves-protect-masks-say-experts/

Wearing gloves offers more protection against catching coronavirus than wearing a mask, an expert in occupational hygiene has said.

This is because touching a contaminated surface and then your face is the most common way to catch the virus and studies have shown that people who wear gloves touch their face less, according to John Cherrie, emeritus professor of human health at Heriot-Watt University.

Face masks, by contrast, provide minimal protection to the wearer, although they can help to shield other people if the wearer is infected, he said.

Prof Cherrie and Sean Semple, an associate professor at the University of Stirling, wrote: "We can become infected in a number of ways.

"The three most likely routes are from mucus droplets from coughs and sneezes that land directly on our faces; the transfer of virus particles from contaminated surfaces to our nose, mouth or eyes through hand-to-mouth contacts; and by inhaling very small droplets of contaminated mucus suspended in the air.

"The most important route is via contaminated hands."
...................................................

Masks provide little protection, he added. "I see people wearing masks but 95 per cent will get no benefit - either there will be no virus in the air in the first place or the mask will not be fitted properly.

totally agree on this point - the demand explodes when lockdown is eased...


Posted by ks5S > May 24, 2020 5:30 PM | Report Abuse

now US start opening up from the lockdown, every industry have to start using gloves. Demand is getting higher compare to during lockdown period.

you made it very clear freetospeak.. thanks!

Posted by freetospeak > May 24, 2020 2:22 PM | Report Abuse

Do u know even a 0.01% death rate in vaccine canresult more death in the covid itself...becoz not everyone got covid but everyone wannna get vaccinated....so u can go calculate.

especially healthcare, gloves usage by all hospitals staffs will be a mandatory thing permanently....

this just like the screening at all airports which became a permanent thing after 9/11 attack

when we hear the word vaccine - we need to understand two things:

(1) How good is the vaccine - 100% effective?

Can the vaccine has 100% effectiveness? Even if 1% is not effective, Considering this - would FDA allow it to be used worldwide?
Dont forget its mutating rapidly. Vaccine for current virus may not be effective for the mutated version.

(2) Does the vaccine has - 0% side effects?

Almost all vaccines has side effects and you cannot know what is the side effects till you use it and see the effects after a year.

Say the side effects is minor. Would u still get yourself immunised? After all, the cases are not that high and the risk for young and healthy is almost nil.

..............

Considering the above, would the world quickly implement a newly discovered vaccine without thorough long terms side effects studies and enforce it?

the risk vs gains would not justify such enforcement easily unless they are absolutely 100% sure it is effective and has ZERO side effects.

In my opinion, the above is the reality and you would not hear vaccination enforced for the next 2 years at the least.

Governments would rather encourage self protection measures till then.

when we hear the word vaccine - we need to understand two things:

(1) How good is the vaccine - 100% effective?

Can the vaccine has 100% effectiveness? Even if 1% is not effective, Considering this - would FDA allow it to be used worldwide?
Dont forget its mutating rapidly. Vaccine for current virus may not be effective for the mutated version.

(2) Does the vaccine has - 0% side effects?

Almost all vaccines has side effects and you cannot know what is the side effects till you use it and see the effects after a year.

Say the side effects is minor. Would u still get yourself immunised? After all, the cases are not that high and the risk for young and healthy is almost nil.

..............

Considering the above, would the world quickly implement a newly discovered vaccine without thorough long terms side effects studies and enforce it?

the risk vs gains would not justify such enforcement easily unless they are absolutely 100% sure it is effective and has ZERO side effects.

In my opinion, the above is the reality and you would not hear vaccination enforced for the next 2 years at the least.

Governments would rather encourage self protection measures till then.

I never thought they had such flexibility!

Supermax seems to be really nimble & ambitious

Posted by probability > May 23, 2020 10:22 PM | Report Abuse X

● The bulk of its expansion plans will mainly focus on nitrile gloves (NBR), which has stronger demand and better margins. In the event that demand for NBR gloves outweigh that of natural latex gloves (NR), SUCB may look to convert some existing NR production lines to produce NBR gloves

Butadiene Rubber (raw material for Nitrile gloves)....

Natural Rubber:

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-586.html

Butadiene Rubber:

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-358.html

From the above charts, you can see their price difference which is diverging , means margin will expand further for Nitrile Gloves in coming quarters

● The bulk of its expansion plans will mainly focus on nitrile gloves (NBR), which has stronger demand and better margins. In the event that demand for NBR gloves outweigh that of natural latex gloves (NR), SUCB may look to convert some existing NR production lines to produce NBR gloves

...........

The above extract from CGS-CIMB article above is also extremely positive as the Butadiene Rubber price had come down significantly against Natural rubber.

We should be seeing Supermax consistently beating earnings of all other players next few quarters in leaps.

TheEdge has given a very fair view on gloves stock today.

If you read carefully, its about selecting companies which has the ability to capitalize on the opportunity (both in terms of margin & rise in throughput).

Some companies simply cannot increase their pricing because of already having long term dedicated clients - simply because the market ASP has surged (e.g Kossan).

Some companies, cannot increase their throughput as they simply do not have spare capacity (e.g, Kossan again).

The distributors are the ones minting money as they booked the orders far ahead, hoarding and making a killing by hiking up the selling price.

This really shows the importance of OBM (people have truly underestimated the significance).

@freetospeak, dont forget the enormous growth potential on capacity (throughput) in the near future and the levelof optimism given by the management.

Last i have seen such optimism on Dayang's management a year ago before it rose from 0.8 to 3.0

Perhaps the recent covid outbreak, forced U.S to use Supermax gloves though it had not met the special specification needed earlier..

Who knows, this may catalyze a new breakthrough market for Supermax permanently...

Perhaps we can look it at it another way, Harta has the risk of losing the margin in the future if Supermax is able to penetrate the same niche market

Thanks for the discussion Philip. More clarification below:

.................

Q1:

'Hartalega has a patented production processes method that allows them to meet those specifications and yet produce commercially at a cheaper rate than all of its competitors'


This means the product is the same, but the production method is different. Do let us know the magnitude of the reduction in production cost/margin expansion due to this if you are aware. My guesstimate says 95% of the COP can only be the raw material which should be the same for all competitors.


Q2:

'Basically for medical nitrile gloves they have to meet certain size and quality specifications for US supply.'


Guess the above is the reason why ASP of Hartalega higher than its competitors - for having a niche market. This could be the better explanation for the higher profit margin, unlike COP. Do let me know if there are other reasons you are aware.

aiyo Purebull, this 2999 + 1 people are all static kah? can only buy one time, sell and never look back?

in reality buyer no.1 can turn out to be buyer no. 2999 + 1....

Supermax Outlook:
==========

Plant 12 consists of Block A and Block B, each consisting of 8 double former lines with 2.2b pieces each (total 4.4b pieces).

As of now, for Block A, its remaining 3 lines started commissioning in end March 2020 on top of the 5 lines already in commercial production.

For Block B, all 8 lines are expected to be fully commissioned by 2H 2020. Upon full commercial production by 2H 2020, installed capacity will rise 13.4% to 26.2b pieces per annum.

............

Recall, it had completed the acquisition of a piece of land in Meru, Klang on which it plans to build three plants namely Plant 13,14 and 15 which will contribute another 12bn pieces of gloves to its total installed capacity over the next few years.

The 3 plants would add 12.0 billion pieces per annum to the Group‟s installed capacity from 26.18 billion gloves to 38.18 billion gloves when these 3 plants have completed commissioning and in commercial production fully by CY2022.

............

On March 11th , 2020, the Company had also entered into an agreement to purchase another piece of industrial land in Meru, Klang, on which the Company plans to build plant #16. Construction work has already commenced on 2 plants and work on a 3rd plant would commence soon.

............

Total = 42 Billion gloves/annum

Truth is in the pudding

.......................

Moderna unveiled encouraging coronavirus vaccine results. Then top execs dumped nearly $30 million of stock

May 22, 2020

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/22/investing/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine-stock-sales/index.html


New York (CNN Business)Moderna's stock price skyrocketed as much as 30% on Monday after the biotech company announced promising early results for its coronavirus vaccine. As ordinary investors piled in, two insiders were quietly heading for the exits.

Moderna's chief financial officer and chief medical officer executed options and sold nearly $30 million of shares combined on Monday and Tuesday, SEC filings reviewed by CNN Business show.

The sales occurred after Moderna (MRNA) excited Wall Street before markets opened Monday by announcing encouraging vaccine trial results. Moderna's market value swelled to $29 billion -- even though the company has no marketed products.

After spiking to as high as $87 on Monday, Moderna's stock price has since retreated below $70 as medical experts have debated the importance of the early findings.

Philip sifu, kindly enlighten all of us here what special characteristics that a company like Harta has against Supermax to cause such difference in PE.

Exclude the recent effects of Covid 19, i believe it boils down to competitive advantage concept you had introduced in i3

please break it down for us to digest...

TQ

Just curious to know, why did Supermax venture to Brazil far ahead of covid 19? There must huge demand there naturally. but could not figure out the reasons...

Posted by Fabie > May 23, 2020 9:41 AM | Report Abuse

In Supermax's 2019 Annual Report, the only investment in associate which is not impaired is Supermax Brasil Importadora S/A whose principal activity is Marketing, importing and distributing latex gloves with a stake of 50%.

May be Supermax should buy a Rubber plantation too, so that they can have their own latex - will be useful to gain competitive advantage at times when oil price shoots up raising raw material Butadiene price (synthetic rubber)

automated , self check in / check out at immigration will the future everywhere...may be they will combine with a temperature sensor

If you go to any pharmacy (my experience in overseas), they sell you gloves in boxes, if you check the brand, it has a local company name.

The name is something that you have not heard of - no connection to Malaysia, but the gloves are definitely from Malaysia.

This shows the distributors buy from Malaysian glove makers and hike up with a significant margin to make money themself (likely much higher margin than the manufacturers).

As such, if you can have your own brand (OBM) like Supermax, it would certainly make a huge difference on profit.

Most importantly, it means Supermax has the competitive advantage of killing other distributors (competitors) being the manufacturer themself.

This vertical integration is indeed very powerful.

There would be no reason for PE rating of Supermax to be not comparable to other big players like HARTA

I think Philip did the the right thing to sell Topglove........but he should be buying Supermax

@Tangmonk, thanks for sharing the above

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

One of the best comments

Posted by freetospeak > May 21, 2020 2:47 PM | Report Abuse

topglove market cap =30 billion
profit 373 million/4 = 93 million/ qtr

Supermax market cap = 7.2 billion
profit going to be (71 +100 +100+100)/4 = 92 million /qtr

(30/7.2) = 4.1
Supermax = 5.3 x 4.1= rm 21.73

either Supermax is undervalued or topglove overvalued.
either supermax will go up to c big brother or big brother coome down to sit down with supermax.
Or we prefer to meet halfway drink tea?

Director is hinting the share price to be respected like HARTA

whats happening here...king of goreng stock?

hoping the same....this should be above 1

i know charlesT sifu...if he intro another sifu...i must accept this sifu as great too


Posted by CharlesT > May 22, 2020 3:41 PM | Report Abuse

Freetospeak u r the real sifu in supermax

low oil price will suppress Butadiene Rubber (raw material for Nitrile gloves)....

Natural Rubber:

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-586.html

Butadiene Rubber:

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-358.html

From the above charts, you can see their price difference which is diverging , means margin will expand further for Nitrile Gloves in coming quarters

If you go to any pharmacy (my experience in overseas), they sell you gloves in boxes, if you check the brand, it has a local company name.

The name is something that you have not heard of - no connection to Malaysia, but the gloves are definitely from Malaysia.

This shows the distributors buy from Malaysian glove makers and hike up with a significant margin to make money themself (likely much higher margin than the manufacturers).

As such, if you can have your own brand (OBM) like Supermax, it would certainly make a huge difference on profit.

Most importantly, it means Supermax has the competitive advantage of killing other distributors (competitors) being the manufacturer themself.

This vertical integration is indeed very powerful.

There would be no reason for PE rating of Supermax to be not comparable to other big players like HARTA

not Trump, Bolsonaro this time..

Posted by pang72 > May 22, 2020 10:26 AM | Report Abuse

Is Trump call Ah din to sapu all Supermx glove again???


Haha..

Supermax Corporation - Two Bets for the Price of One
Date: 22/05/2020

Source : KENANGA
Stock : SUPERMX Price Target : 7.60

We are excited with Supermax prospects over the next few quarters following a 3QFY20 post result briefing. Specifically, Supermax is expected to gain from higher margins from both its gloves manufacturing and distribution channels due to abnormal demand and acute supply tightness. We expect higher margins going forward due to higher product mix skewed towards OBM distribution which accounts for 95% compared to 70% pre Covid-19 which we believe had caught us as well as market by surprise. Hence, we raised our FY20E/FY21E net profit by 6%/16%, to account for higher margins. TP is raised from RM6.60 to RM7.60 based on unchanged 26x CY21E EPS. Reiterate OP.

Dual-stream incomes from manufacturing and distribution. Specifically, Supermax is expected to gain from higher margins from both its gloves manufacturing and distribution due to abnormal demand and acute supply tightness. We expect higher margins going forward due to higher product mix skewed towards OBM distribution which accounts for 95% compared to 70% pre Covid-19 which we believe had caught us as well as the market by surprise at a time when of tight supply due to aggressive stockpiling of critical medical supplies including gloves. Typically, manufacturing OEM pre-tax margin ranges between 12% to 15% compared to Own Brand Manufacturing (OBM) pre-tax margin of 15% to 20%. In terms of demand, Supermax is getting enquiries from foreign government agencies, non-government organisations, retail and restaurants chains. Amplifying the pent-up demand, buyers are paying between 30% to 50% deposits in advance to secure glove supply and timely delivery. The delivery lead time has now risen from 45 to 60 days pre Covid-19 to 10 to 12 months currently. Case in point is Supermax’s overseas distribution centres which are experiencing fast inventory depletion from usual 4 months to within 6 weeks. Supermax expects the heightened demand to continue for the next 1 to 1.5 years. All in, we are bullish on higher-than-expected margins since ASP has been moving upwards week-on-week. As demand pick up, containers are shipping at prices higher than previous months.

Outlook. Plant 12 consists of Block A and Block B, each consisting of 8 double former lines with 2.2b pieces each (total 4.4b pieces). As of now, for Block A, its remaining 3 lines started commissioning in end March 2020 on top of the 5 lines already in commercial production. For Block B, all 8 lines are expected to be fully commissioned by 2H 2020. Upon full commercial production by 2H 2020, installed capacity will rise 13.4% to 26.2b pieces per annum.

Raised FY20E/FY211E net profit by 6%/16% after raising our pre-tax margin from 13%/14% to 16%/18%.

Undemanding FY21E PER valuation of 18x compared to expected earnings growth of 68%. Correspondingly, our TP is raised form RM6.60 to RM7.60 based on unchanged 26x CY21 revised EPS of 25.4 sen (at slightly above +2.0SD above the 5-year historical forward mean). We like Supermax because: (i) the stock is trading at an undemanding 18x FY21E EPS compared to expected earnings growth of 68%, and (ii) of its OBM model, where it can extract higher margin from distributor prices, compared to the OEM model at lower factory prices. Reiterate Outperform. Key risk to our call is longer-than-expected commercial operations of new plants.

Source: Kenanga Research - 22 May 2020

Kenanga raised TP : 7.60

@Energizer, thanks. Fantastic!

anyone have the link?

Posted by Energiser > May 22, 2020 8:43 AM | Report Abuse

CIMB latest TP is RM 7.

Basically, is your FCF used above , FCF-F or FCF-E?

DCF = RM 9,835.93 (HAI DUONG)

JAKS 30% = RM 2,950.77m

............


The above DCF value is total asset value right?

If that is the case, wouldnt you need to offset the Debt (NPV) to get the Equity portion value first - before multiplying 30% stakes of JAKS on the Equity to obtain the share price?