Post removed.Why?

if you dont know the MCO...just ask politely...and then follow...the enforcers have big task to do....just help them to implement it easily...

just cooperate la...in wuhan any doctor got jog or not? only got doctor sacrificed himself for others...

malaysians are seriously stupid

agree with rr88

Market will soon start treating JAKS as a foreign USD stock

who knows 1 USD = MYR 5 soon...

well said i3lurker

ha ha @huahtai what you said is true:

From mild to wild: Coronavirus impact on China’s power and renewables sector

https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/from-mild-to-wild-coronavirus-impact-on-chinas-power--renewabl.html

Base case: Electricity demand only moderatedly affected
.......................................................


The sector most impacted during the current outbreak is the commercial sector, e.g., restaurants, hotels, shops. These are lost activities that will not be re-generated during rest of the year, for example, Chinese New Year holiday trips, family banquets at restaurants. However, because these businesses only account for 14% of electricity demand, their impact on total power consumption - especially if only limited to the first quarter - will be moderate.

In addition, as people are advised to stay home during this period, we expect an increase in household electricity consumption from activities such as cooking and heating.

As a result, in our base case outlook, IHS Markit expects China's electricity demand to still increase by 3.8% in 2020.


"Severe Impact" case: Electricity demand 1% lower than previous forecast
.........................................................

However, should the government not effectively contain the spread of COVID-19 and the disease control measures extend further in 2020, the impact on the Chinese economy - and the electric power and its related sectors - will be much more pronounced.

Under such an assumption - or the IHS Markit "severe impact" case - China's GDP growth during 2020 decelerates to only 4.2%, and the associated electricity demand growth will be only 3.1%, a full percentage point lower than our pre-COVID-19 outlook.

..........

The above article came on 19th Feb and the peak of spread in China....only 1% effect max under extreme scenario!

For Vietnam who will be compensating for the vacuum created by the Europeans, even if the cases there rise - the net effect is still rise in electricity consumption.

Thats tibet monk raider's quote. How does it fit here?

Posted by gohkimhock > Mar 14, 2020 4:58 PM | Report Abuse

Heng Yuan = Nestle ??

@hng33, i totally agree with you on the above 2 statements (though i dont consider you a person with integrity.

Note that i am working for an engineering & service oriented company in a region quite affected by the covid-19.

Customers are hesitant and truly holding-delaying on service activities and going through tedious medical screening before allowing our service engineer to work at site.

They are checking their passport for travel history on the last 30 days. If covid presist, my guess is Dayang will have reduced activity.

Though its selling at an extremely attractive price, at this stage i am not willing to risk it for something more assuring like the utility business with 'capacity payments' for 25 years.

@GKH, your OKA will definitely break 80 cents again - since no one is conning and duping and promoting.

corrected interpretation:

Incase any layman does not understand the above, let me explain:
...............................................................

The "agreed heat rate" of 9795 BTU per kWh in 2016 means that if the Mong Duong power plant produced say 10 Million Kwh of electricity in 2016, EVN will assume that the plant had consumed Coal equivalent to:

= (9795 BTU/1kWh) * (10M kWh)
= 97,950 Million BTU

1 ton Coal has 20 Million BTU, as such EVN will pay for:

= (97,950/ 20)
= 4,900 ton Coal at its cost
...............

Now, for Mong Duong plant to really consume 4,900 ton coal to produce 10 Million kWh, the plant has to be operating at 34% efficiency. Will show you here, how to derive that:

From above we can see that 4,900 ton coal produces 97,950 Million BTU.
BTU is just unit for energy and it can be converted to kWh with the conversion factor of 3412 BTU per 1 kWh.

As such, the 97,950M BTU is equivalent to 28.7M kWh.
But the plant only produced 10M kWh right?

So the efficiency of the plant is:
= 10M kWh energy produced /28.7 kWh energy consumed
= 34.8% efficiency
.................

So, as DK66 mentioned above, any actual efficiency of the new Chinese thermal plant (e.g Hai Duong) higher than 34.8% presents a lesser actual coal consumption than the theoretical quota EVN had agreed with Mong Duong 2...

DK66 showed Hai Duong thermal power plant having the Chinese thermal power plant efficiency of 43% , represents fuel cost savings of 24.4% (from revenue of USD 343M) which will result as pure savings or additional profits of US$ 84M to Hai Duong power plant relative to Mong Duong 2 power plant.

Really? thats the first ever good news of 2020!!

Beary, though i dont admit i agree with all your statements, i must admit you are an intelligent forumer that i3 needs.

Intelligent Devil's advocate are always appreciated. hahaha...

TQ

Posted by Beary > Mar 14, 2020 12:25 PM | Report Abuse

There is a possibility that the price push up yesterday was by the oldman after sensing otb has abandoned ship.

You all know what a nasty and vengeful person the oldman is.

Oldman is the type who will cut his nose to spite his face.

mechanism for the numbers derivation cannot be 'lied'....trust the logic behind it.

trust logics - not hearsay

beary, focus on the numbers man...why people...

"people may lie..but numbers dont"

IPP return is real, even if it is not utilized as for the case of Indonesian Coal Fired power plant under BOT contract:

http://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Overpaid-and-Underutilized_How-Capacity-Payments-to-Coal-Fired-Power-Plants-Could-Lock-Indonesia-into-a-High-Cost-Electricity-Future-_August2017.pdf


Extract from Page 12 - 13 below:
....

To this end, IPP participation has been instrumental in expanding power generation capacity in Indonesia, although this expansion has been accomplished at a significant cost.

The PPA with Paiton Energy (which operates a 2,035MW coal-fired power plant) in 1991 has a project internal rate of return (IRR) of between 20% and 25%.

Later coal power projects, those that achieved financial close from 2005 to 2009, such as Cirebon (660MW) and the Tanjung Jati expansion (2 x 660MW) have IRRs of between 12% and 14%.

In general, equity return for investors is higher than project IRR. The Indonesian government effectively guaranteed this return through capacity payment. The high IRR attained in earlier years was commensurate with the political and commercial risk of investing in Indonesia, but the track record shows how much Indonesia has had to pay in order to kick-start and sustain the IPP momentum

@OTB you are right, at 7238 hrs utilization rate , the IRR will shoot to 15%, mid teens like the management had guided Public Investment Bank earlier in 2017.

.........................

Source Public Investment Bank Berhad, January 10 2017.

Jaks, together with CPECC, is constructing a BOT power plant, with an estimated cost of US$1.87bn with 25 years’ concession and power purchase agreement with Viet Nam Electricity (EVN). US$1.4bn already secured back in September 2015 from Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank Corporation and Export-Import Bank of China. The JV has US$160m capital (equity portion) and expects the remaining balance of US$307.1m to be injected in the next 3 years. Management expects strong IRR in the mid-teens with the first unit expected to be completed by mid-2020, and the second unit 6 months later.”

correct my post above - use Page 66.

......

The cash outflow of US$ 1.87 Billion during EPCC phase (first 4-5 years) before COD can be proportional split as per the table shown on above page 66.

@DK66, actually you can also derive the exact numbers above using the project IRR of 12% guided by the management.

Perhaps on your next article you can do just that. Ensure that the first recurring cash in flow (25 years) happens approximately on the 4th or 5th year from the project initial out flow of cash being year zero.

Refer 'Economic-cost benefit analysis' on Page 63-64 below for Mong Duong 1 as a guide how the cash out flow & in flow takes place in sequence through the years - of the thermal power plant's economic life.

"Viet Nam: Mong Duong 1 Thermal Power Project"

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/project-documents/39595/39595-013-pcr-en.pdf

The cash outflow of US$ 1.87 Billion during EPCC phase (first 4-5 years) before COD can be proportional split as per the table shown on above pages.

...........................

You will realize the payback with this cash flow is also 8 years as per management guidance.

Perhaps that will clear market skepticism on JAKS power plant earnings once and for all this way.

TQ

Hope they realize...

there is no other investment in the whole of Bursa can provide earnings certainty like JAKS - capacity payment even without power dispatch! (not saying they wont sell cos electricity consumption rose 11% this qtr in Vietnam).

Wish the price overtakes Dayang soon...as all outdoor activities & services will have an impact - due to covid restriction strategies worlwide...




Posted by SarifahSelinder > Mar 13, 2020 3:51 PM | Report Abuse

Sarifah hope weaker hands dah cabut lari hv bin replaced by dana insituisi

fcuk Dayang...with covid all outdoor activities will be highly restricted...


Posted by deMusangking > Mar 13, 2020 3:18 PM | Report Abuse

yes!
dayang alredi green!

Its truly one of the safest investment JAKS had got into.

The Project IRR is expected to be mid teens.
............................................

The above is no bullshit & the plant is real.

Dont react based on price movement, TA or what sifus say..
use your own head - think and decide.

Extract from above link page 5 below:
....................................

Under PLN’s procurement guidelines, PPAs signed between PLN and IPPs of thermal power plants are for fixed terms of approximately 25 years, or for a maximum of 30 years after Commercial Operation Date (COD).

Capacity payment, as part of the tariff, is a fixed payment calculated
based on the installed capacity of the power plant with specific availability factor agreed to by an IPP and PLN. It is paid for each kilowatt of available (not necessarily dispatched) capacity.

Specifically, it covers:


I. Repayment of the principal and interest of the debt used to construct the power plant, usually on a non-recourse basis;

II. Return on equity invested by project sponsors; and

III. Fixed operation and maintenance (O&M) costs that are independent of the amount of energy generated (e.g., staffing costs, administrative expenses, operator fee, insurance premiums, etc.). The first two components are paid to IPPs as part of capital recovery charges. Variable components of the tariffs, based on power dispatched, contain:

I. Energy Charge Rate, or fuel cost, which is usually a pass-through cost in that PLN bears it;

II. Variable O&M Cost Recovery Charge Rate.

IPP return is real, even if it is not utilized as for the case of Indonesian Coal Fired power plant:

http://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Overpaid-and-Underutilized_How-Capacity-Payments-to-Coal-Fired-Power-Plants-Could-Lock-Indonesia-into-a-High-Cost-Electricity-Future-_August2017.pdf


Extract from Page 12 - 13 below:
....

To this end, IPP participation has been instrumental in expanding power generation capacity in Indonesia, although this expansion has been accomplished at a significant cost.

The PPA with Paiton Energy (which operates a 2,035MW coal-fired power plant) in 1991 has a project internal rate of return (IRR) of between 20% and 25%.

Later coal power projects, those that achieved financial close from 2005 to 2009, such as Cirebon (660MW) and the Tanjung Jati expansion (2 x 660MW) have IRRs of between 12% and 14%.

In general, equity return for investors is higher than project IRR. The Indonesian government effectively guaranteed this return through capacity payment. The high IRR attained in earlier years was commensurate with the political and commercial risk of investing in Indonesia, but the track record shows how much Indonesia has had to pay in order to kick-start and sustain the IPP momentum

Many options to ensure electricity for the dry season

12/03/2020

http://icon.com.vn/vn-s83-161192-637/Nhieu-phuong-an-dam-bao-dien-cho-mua-kho.aspx

Summer 2020 peak forecast that electricity supply in the North will be extremely difficult due to high load, new power projects cannot be used, additional power is negligible while hydrological situation. hydroelectric lakes continue to be unfavorable ...

To ensure the supply of electricity in the dry season 2020, EVNNPC will focus on energizing new TBA projects, projects to increase capacity, install T2 transformers in areas especially high-load areas such as Hai Duong, Thai Binh, Nam Dinh, Vinh Phuc and Bac Ninh are expected to be completed before the second quarter of 2020.

Northern commercial electricity in February increased by 11.04%

12/03/2020

http://icon.com.vn/vn-s83-161089-621/Dien-thuong-pham-mien-Bac-thang-2-tang-1104.aspx

Northern Power Corporation (EVNNPC) said that in February, despite being affected by the disease, the demand for electricity still increased by 11.04% compared to the same period in 2019

Information 6
..............

with reference to information 3 above (which talks on Vinh Tan 1)

Hai Duong power plant is higher spec then Vinh Tan 1 power plant. Performance can be better than Vinh Tan power plant which had proven Output of 8,149 billion kwh, 7,238 utilization hours


IRR of JAKS will be 15% at 7238 hrs since Management said 12% at 6500 hrs.

Crucial information 5 to experience 1-4 above
.............................................

Posted by hng33 > Feb 4, 2020 2:21 PM | Report Abuse

Now, justified again jaks current situation
1. Power plant for unit 1 already FULLY completed
2. Power plant unit 2 is 95% completed.

Information 4:
..............

Source Public Investment Bank Berhad, January 10 2017.

Jaks, together with CPECC, is constructing a BOT power plant, with an estimated cost of US$1.87bn with 25 years’ concession and power purchase agreement with Viet Nam Electricity (EVN). US$1.4bn already secured back in September 2015 from Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank Corporation and Export-Import Bank of China. The JV has US$160m capital (equity portion) and expects the remaining balance of US$307.1m to be injected in the next 3 years. Management expects strong IRR in the mid-teens with the first unit expected to be completed by mid-2020, and the second unit 6 months later.”

fully completed means physically completed - no one is saying they had synchronized to the grid

Information 1
..............

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/03/29/jaks-eyes-irr-of-12-for-rm7bil-vietnam-plant

HANOI, Vietnam: JAKS Resources Bhd is eyeing an internal rate of return of 12% for its Vietnam US$1.87bil (RM7.52bil) coal-fired thermal power plant project independent power plant (IPP) project.


Information 2
.............

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/3-Full-Investment-IRR-and-Payback-Period-of-Coal-fired-Power-Generation-Projects-under_fig4_305776583

15% IRR and 6 years payback in China


Information 3
.............

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2019-12-09-story245519-Jaks_Resources_Higher_Expected_Investment_Returns_from_JHDP.jsp

Management Guidance

Jaks' CEO Andy Ang has indicated during the recent AGM that the power purchase agreement and hence earnings estimate of JHDP was formulated on the basis of 6500 annual utilization hours.

Therefore, management guidance of 8 years payback period and 12% IRR were based on 6500 annual utilization hours.

................

Using the reverse payback methodology,

US$1.87b / 6.18 years = US$303m cashflow per year

Depreciation Expenses = US$1.87 / 25 years = US$75m per year

Profit = US$303 - US$75 = US$228m x 4.2 = RM958m

30% sharing = RM958m x 0.3 = RM287m => EPS = RM0.446

40% sharing = RM958m x 0.4 = RM383m => EPS = RM0.595

well said pjseow as usual

Not only Hengyuan, Lioind..almost 80% of the listed stocks in Bursa is so vulnerable and thus has an unpredictable future earnings - up/down. Just look at Dayang...even the Financial sectors now.

Market has totally not account the stability of earnings for next 25 years.

Strange , market trusts a spike in one quarter earnings and assumes thats how it would be for the next 10 years on stocks generally...but it does not trust the PPA agreements which is binding for 25 years..just because it has not shown the first quarter earnings.



Posted by pjseow > Mar 11, 2020 10:21 AM | Report Abuse

Aseng , there are many differences between Hengyuan refinery business vs power generation business which is " protected " through the power purchase agreement. Hengyuan.business has many non.controllable variables like crack spreads, oil price fuctuations , inventory gains or lossess, periodic shutdowns and upgrades which cost a lot of money. The potential unfavourabke variables in.power plants business are mitigated through adjustmemt or compensations through PPA stated upfront.Hence , power plants earnings are mote predictable.

very good idea OTB. Really appreciate this initiation.

12) I will suggest to the management of Jaks to use Jaks shares listed in KLSE to swap for 10% option of Hai Duong power plant stake. No money needs to come out from Jaks and CPECC to own certain % of Jaks shares listed in KLSE in return. This will make CPECC a major shareholder of Jaks listed in KLSE. This suggestion will be a win-win situation for both Jaks and CPECC.

...........

absolutely brilliant idea - wonder is this DK66's idea? Very sharp sifu OTB...

amazing...

Its a utility stock....admit it. Cash flow is real...25 years.

It will be an inevitable realization by the market soon.

40% stakes is definite
300 M per annum profit is definite
25 years recurring is also definite

.......

its time for JAKS a utility stock, ignore O&G stocks, e.g Dayang which has uncertain future currently and decouple....

WHO speech yesterday night had the same message below


Posted by probability > Mar 9, 2020 5:39 PM | Report Abuse

China proved it and Korea proved it - it did not take more than a month to contain the virus.

When necessary...when it gets out of control.. whichever country affected ..can & will do the same.

we are not in war against an enemy whom we do not know how to defeat.
.............................................

Those who can sell and buy cheaper are of course great - but this ability to know the 'collective psychological feeling of the market' is for the gifted in a different aspect.

But when there is a clear cut strategy to win the virus... why lose at the stock market by cutting loss?

40% stakes is definite
300 M per annum profit is definite
25 years recurring is also definite

.......

its time for JAKS a utility stock, ignore O&G stocks, e.g Dayang which has uncertain future currently and decouple....

There is no absolute freedom in any organized body, corporation, institution, religion or even...a country.

The moment it involves more than one person - absolute freedom is lost. Its about collective interest.

China proved it and Korea proved it - it did not take more than a month to contain the virus.

When necessary...when it gets out of control.. whichever country affected ..can & will do the same.

we are not in war against an enemy whom we do not know how to defeat.
.............................................

Those who can sell and buy cheaper are of course great - but this ability to know the 'collective psychological feeling of the market' is for the gifted in a different aspect.

But when there is a clear cut strategy to win the virus... why lose at the stock market by cutting loss?

what surprises me the most is that South Korean and Iran new cases had indeed been dropping. Its just a matter of time Italy experience the same with tight control.

Market totally spooked out of control...

No country will allow the virus to get out control - the virus cannot win with the 'quarantine weapon of 14 days' as proven in China.


Posted by hng33 > Mar 9, 2020 5:21 PM | Report Abuse

Dear OTB

It bad market sentiment affect all stock across the bursa, there is NOTING change on Jaks underlying business today if compared to yesterday, or week or month ago. The power plant is on track to generate electricity.

It is knee jerk reaction over failure in opec and Russian concourses on oil cut. With current tumble oil due to that, both opec and Russian will have to again back to negotiation to avoid lose-lose situation.

I believe market will soon recover from these knee jerk as no oil country can afford oil tumbling (Suadi, Russain and shale oil producer in US) that will worsen their economy.

In regard to virus, China already successful contain the spread, now the new infected people already down to 2-digit number.

The success in China virus containment is utmost important to world, if compared to itali or Korean. US also have declare state emergency to use enforcement law to speed up containment.

Every country are cooperate and serious about virus containment. Worldwide scientist are on Lab to produce antiviral speedy, on human clinical trial before mass production in near future.

Thus, please stay calm and don blame others especially those recommended good stock in these forum with fact and figure, like DK66 and OTB, both have my high respect.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

the virus cases had drastically reduced in China, followed by South Korea and now even Iran...

Once Italy is under control i dont see further rise infection rate

even oil price will recover

even there is no certainty for Maybank to be around after 25 years...but JAKS will be.

40% stakes is definite
300 M per annum profit is definite
25 years recurring is also definite

.......

investors waited for more than 5 years to engineer, procure and construct....its just about to generate power now.

..........

Market sentiment is often momentary
dont get hooked on temporary emotions

virus has no whatsoever impact on power consumption in vietnam...

utility stock in fact a beneficiary of cheaper fuel...

give a like to i3lurker for the above comment - seems quite reasonable

walao.. a simple intention to make a layman understand the synchronization process became so complicated.

i suggest all stick to the below comment from pjseow and enjoy this video we will be seeing soon at Hai Duong.

1) 7-15.3.2020, unit 1 will join the grid for the first time;
2) 1-15.4.2020 will test reliability and
3) 15-15.6.2020 will operate commercially.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WZrqwtj11Y

TQ

Posted by pjseow > Mar 8, 2020 6:49 AM | Report Abuse

Probability, let me polish up my engineering knowledge in electrical. AC voltage and current are sinusoidal . The sine waves have peaks and troughs with certain wavelength and amplitude. The sinusoidal voltage and current from the new Hai Duong generators must be adjusted or sychronise such that they are in the same phases as the waves from the national greed. hahaha, I am trying my rusty engineering

yes pjseow, hope it can touch RM 3000 again :)

i agree - but 'start-up' its a general statement. It can be referring to the reliability test phase in May.

spot on pjseow! perfectly elaborated :)

Posted by pjseow > Mar 8, 2020 6:49 AM | Report Abuse

Probability, let me polish up my engineering knowledge in electrical. AC voltage and current are sinusoidal . The sine waves have peaks and troughs with certain wavelength and amplitude. The sinusoidal voltage and current from the new Hai Duong generators must be adjusted or sychronise such that they are in the same phases as the waves from the national greed. hahaha, I am trying my rusty engineering