The coronavirus trend is becoming very clear:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

no of new infections per day had been clearly dropping....:

5th Feb: 3927
6th Feb: 3723
7th Feb: 3163
8th Feb: 3437
9th Feb: 2676

fatality: stopped increasing:

5th Feb: 66
6th Feb: 73
7th Feb: 73
8th Feb: 86
9th Feb: 89

................

New infection by 9th Feb has significantly come down.....almost 30% reduction.

Truly remarkable feat by CCP! Salute....

all these silly fault findings on TF based on couple of millions pocketed...and the hype on the virus causing long term damage for a 5% seat capacity.......appears really getting dry.

Time is certainly on favour for AA...
the longer one waits...the greater the lost precious opportunity

Thank you

Read carefully why NHS mentioned 0.16% on above postings. Despite repetitive postings...your dumb brain never gets it!

Dont scold Singapore PM dumb dumb la...LOL!

I did say the same on 1st Feb. What took so long for the scientist to figure out?

Posted by probability > Feb 1, 2020 7:02 PM | Report Abuse X

Indonesia despite having 270 Million population and likely more workers working abroad and mainland chinese within the country...recorded nil patients.

This is a stark difference to Germany where asymptomatic infection took place across person to person in 3 stages even before the first victim showed symptoms.

............

Definitely humidity plays a significant role on the spread-ability of the virus. Hotter climate close to the sea like Indonesia...ensures high humidity level. And high humidity is definitely preventing novel coronavirus ability to float for spreading which can only take place within a circumference of 2 meter (just 6 feet!) before it drops to the ground.

Coronavirus: Fear can do more harm than the virus, says PM Lee

8/2/2020 an hour ago

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-fear-can-do-more-harm-than-the-virus-says-pm-lee-103822558.html

“With the new virus, outside of Hubei province, the mortality rate is so far only 0.2 per cent. In comparison, seasonal influenza has a death rate of 0.1 per cent. So in terms of mortality, the new virus is much closer to influenza than SARS.

..........

Even Singapore PM just said what i said above....fatality rate is 0.2%

you have to carefully exclude Hubei/Wuhan from the counts to find true fatality rate:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

click 'show' on the tables for the below on above link:

- New confirmed cases of coronavirus in mainland China by provincial divisions:

- New deaths from coronavirus in mainland China by provincial divisions

........

The above is a crucial information many have not realized.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

97% of the country's total deaths (414) were in the Hubei Province.
Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.

Fatality rate in other provinces is 0.16%.
............................................

Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total.
Most of the cases are still mild cases, so there is no need to panic.
Asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the NHS official replied it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that there were only 110 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals where most of the cases were sent.

What is the global incidence of influenza?

Updated: Jan 08, 2020

https://www.medscape.com/answers/219557-3459/what-is-the-global-incidence-of-influenza

The World Health Organization estimates that worldwide, annual influenza epidemics result in about 3-5 million cases of severe illness and about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths.

......................................

Say 400,000 deaths for a 7 Billion world population, it means for a country like China with 1.4 Billion, fatality in a year would be:

80,000 deaths per year

= 220 deaths per day (in China due to Influenza)
..................


Now, what is the death Wuhan virus is causing per day?

= 80 per day
............

With sufficient health care provision, the fatality rate is determined to be 0.16%

Assuming it becomes an endemic in China infecting over 50 Million people on average a year...the death rate per day would be:

= 0.16% x 50,000,000 /(365 days)
= 220 death per day

..........

In a nutshell, for Wuhan Virus to obtain the status of Influenza, it has to reach infection rate of 50 Million per year or about 140,000 per day.

At current infection rate, 3400 /day it is still very far behind Influenza status (of course due to strict measure in place by CCP currently).

Even, when China opens up and release the lock down....which i am sure after Hubei or in particular Wuhan is under full control, and the source of the virus is eliminated, the infection count is long way to reach 140,000 per day.

Think about it.
..............

Just using a gap of 2 years between the cumulative cash out flow of US$ 1.87 Billion spent for the Power Plant and the first recurring future cash in flow from electricity Sales....estimated annual cash in flow would be RM 1.3 Billion to obtain an IRR of 12% .

The IRR of 12% is derived at an extremely conservative annual plant utilization rate of 6500 hrs.

For sure JAKS will increase their stakes to 40%...and for sure the operating hours will exceed 7200 hrs as it was found for Vinh Tan 1..

..........

IRR increases by approximately 1.4% for every 300 hrs rise in utilization.

This was the reason, the IRR was estimated to be on the mid teens at the initial stage of the project before Andy acquired a partner (CPECC).

After that...there was no need to reveal its true potential.

Its a worthy prudent investment to save unnecessary medical bills at a time where these antiviral drugs are deficient and costly.

Thats why Macau, Hongkong and Singapore are the most vulnerable cities....


where extra precautionary measures needs to be taken at early stage to bring everything into a manageable level (to avoid huge medical costs, not fatality)

Countries By Density 2020
.........................

What are the most densely populated countries in the world? Here is a ranking of the top 10 most densely populated countries in the world:

Macau (Population density: 21,055/km²)
Monaco (Population density: 19,150/km²)
Singapore (Population density: 8,109/km²)
Hong Kong (Population density: 6,677/km²)
Gibraltar (Population density: 5,620/km²)
Bahrain (Population density: 2,052/km²)
Vatican City (Population density: 1,820/km²)
Maldives (Population density: 1,719/km²)
Malta (Population density: 1,390/km²)
Sint Maarten (Population density: 1,234/km²

..............

Malaysia is 99/km2

mortality rate everywhere excluding hubei will be about the same <0.2%...

but the chances of spreading to a level where it may be difficult to provide necessary medical attention/care is very high in Singapore & Hongkong vs Malaysia......

due to population density

the chances of spreading in Singapore is multifolds...100X higher than Malaysia...

they make love or go toilet also neighbour can hear one...

i told earlier...singapore is a very confined densely populated business hub with huge flux of travel volume...

It is a prudent decision to nip it on the bud to save medical cost in the future.

They should have done it earlier.

All the seniors sifus agree to it...Koon came out with an article earlier that this is a precious opportunity for clever investors.

Cold eye repeatedly insisting this is the time to be brave and buy.....

just like the experienced paktua been advocating here.

Better whack AA on Monday before market wake up to the true reality ......which will inevitably surface eventually. No matter how you look at it...this fear is going to subside.


Fortune favours the bold
........................

Coronavirus: Fear can do more harm than the virus, says PM Lee

8/2/2020 an hour ago

https://sg.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-fear-can-do-more-harm-than-the-virus-says-pm-lee-103822558.html

“With the new virus, outside of Hubei province, the mortality rate is so far only 0.2 per cent. In comparison, seasonal influenza has a death rate of 0.1 per cent. So in terms of mortality, the new virus is much closer to influenza than SARS.

..........

Even Singapore PM just said what i said above....fatality rate is 0.2%.

Tun M can make a potential PM to a convict and back to PM.....

Further Rafidah Aziz is there...with AA

Azmin after sodomie still very strong and well...with Tun support

Tun M is the master of all crooks.

same way, margin sensitivity due to fuel price + jet fuel crack spread drop...is 15 times more.

China and other long-haul East flight destination only contributes 5% of AirAsia revenue.
.......................................................

It is AirAsia X who has more than 25% revenue from this region.

With current drop in Fuel price by more than 20%, AirAsia may actually have net positive effect (benefits) from the virus.

The above is really something to analyse in deep.

wow...so upset till want to flag liao! LOL...

and not claiming news from NST as fake news...LOL!

at least i quote the source , unlike u

AirAsia hedged 50% only, and they option to buy further 50% at this ridiculous cheap rate - US$ 54/brl.

..............

Do you know the Jet Fuel crack spread is at 42 months low?
It has dropped from 16 to 9 USD/brl.

That means their actual fuel cost is even lower by 7 USD/brl.
.........................................................

who is lying?
............


AirAsia Group hedges over 50 pct fuel consumption for 2020
January 7, 2020

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/01/554264/airasia-group-hedges-over-50-pct-fuel-consumption-2020

SEPANG: AirAsia Group Bhd (AirAsia) has hedged over 50 per cent of its fuel consumption throughout this year, said executive chairman Datuk Kamarudin Meranun.

He said the move was made after factoring in the additional flights and fare promotions that would be introduced during the festive seasons this year.

“Previously, we have done between 50 per cent and 60 per cent of fuel hedging. Next year, we are also looking at hedging when the price is lower,” he said at the press conference after launching AirAsia’s special flights for Chinese New Year here today.

Posted by i3lurker > Feb 8, 2020 3:41 PM | Report Abuse

no need to lie

Brent is now around 53
may go below 50

AA will be high cost airline compared to MA and other airlines


"For 2020, the airline has insured Brent crude oil at an average of 60.2 USD per barrel for up to 73 percent of its total fuel supply, enabling it to be confident that any fluctuations in oil price will have minimal effect."

China and other long-haul East flight destination only contributes 5% of AirAsia revenue.
.......................................................

It is AirAsia X who has more than 25% revenue from this region.

With current drop in Fuel price by more than 20%, AirAsia may actually have net positive effect (benefits) from the virus.

In investment, the intelligent and informed always beats the emotionally worried, fearful, uncertain simply due to lack of knowledge and substantiated information.

just like the panic singaporeans who would have paid double the price for food supplies recently.....

you have to carefully exclude Hubei/Wuhan from the counts to find true fatality rate:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

click 'show' on the tables for the below on above link:

- New confirmed cases of coronavirus in mainland China by provincial divisions:

- New deaths from coronavirus in mainland China by provincial divisions

........

The above is a crucial information many have not realized.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

97% of the country's total deaths (414) were in the Hubei Province.
Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.

Fatality rate in other provinces is 0.16%.
............................................

Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total.
Most of the cases are still mild cases, so there is no need to panic.
Asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the NHS official replied it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that there were only 110 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals where most of the cases were sent.

with the above numbers, and if you still dont make a brave decision by Monday....

it will be such a great opportunity lost
........................................

you would need to wait for another new virus after many years....

with current China's strict measures...perhaps even all the already existing viruses will be wiped out completely - extinct.

Thank you

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

no of new infections per day had been dropping the last 2 days:

5th Feb: 3927
6th Feb: 3723
7th Feb: 3163

fatality: stopped increasing:

5th Feb: 66
6th Feb: 73
7th Feb: 73

..............

Looking at the above trend...we can expect what the numbers will be by Monday morning...

The whole market will realize whats happening...

i3lurker ...dont feel bad..you can offset other stocks to get into AA on Monday...

plenty of 'offset' options

the article definitely carries a meaning. if you cannot digest it...its not my obligation to make your intelligence to a level you can understand.

Whether i have too much time or doing something useful or not useful to me...its none of your bloody business to judge.

i do what derives pleasure to me

if you dont like the article..you have the freedom not to read

i am not saying it will prevent economic collapse...it wont collapse

this article is to tell market participants to make informed investment decision inline with the purpose of i3...which is independent, intelligent, informed

Noidea...we are not saying we dont care about the lives lost...me too felt very bad hearing about Dr. Li wenliang..

But the objective of this article is to assure market participants to feel relaxed and need not fear of an economic collapse or long term business implications


Posted by Noideatoo > Feb 7, 2020 10:24 PM | Report Abuse

So? 630 lives are lost. Only stupid fool going to talk what if this or that.

It means 1 to max 2 will die for every 1000 infected.
....................................................

The fear propagated is absolutely over inflated....but its good to control the spread internationally currently.

One thing for certain, this virus stories & hypes will quickly fade within a month. I am 100% certain on that.

Not only i am saying this - even Cold Eye have the same view.

Thank you

Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Mortality Rate: 0.16%!!!!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

National Health Commission (NHC) of China
Asked at a press conference on February 4 what the current mortality rate (or case fatality rate, CFR) is, an official with China NHS said that [7]:

The formula they are using is: cumulative current total deaths / current confirmed cases. So, as of 24:00 on Feb. 3, the formula used was 425/20,438.
Based on this figure, the national mortality rate is 2.1% of confirmed cases.
There might be mild cases and other cases not reported.
97% of the country's total deaths (414) were in the Hubei Province.
Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.

Fatality rate in other provinces is 0.16%.
.........................................

Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total.
Most of the cases are still mild cases, so there is no need to panic.

Asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the NHS official replied it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that there were only 110 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals where most of the cases were sent.

..........

exactly like i had explained earlier

Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Mortality Rate; 0.16%!!!!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

National Health Commission (NHC) of China
Asked at a press conference on February 4 what the current mortality rate (or case fatality rate, CFR) is, an official with China NHS said that [7]:

The formula they are using is: cumulative current total deaths / current confirmed cases. So, as of 24:00 on Feb. 3, the formula used was 425/20,438.
Based on this figure, the national mortality rate is 2.1% of confirmed cases.
There might be mild cases and other cases not reported.
97% of the country's total deaths (414) were in the Hubei Province.
Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.

Fatality rate in other provinces is 0.16%.
.........................................

Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total.
Most of the cases are still mild cases, so there is no need to panic.

Asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the NHS official replied it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that there were only 110 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals where most of the cases were sent.

..........

exactly like i had explained earlier

AirAsia can easily increase their flight utilization rates by giving extra cheap flight to India, Indonesia and the rest of the world destinations towards West side.....to fill the gap on under-utilized flights towards the East (which is only 10%).

They can even make internal flights cheaper to ensure all of their available planes are fully utilized.

Its not that difficult to increase that 90% flights utilization by 10% to fill the temporary gap of 10% caused by the wuhan virus at the east side.

Damn...they only hedged 50% of the fuel ...what a wise decision.

Its like they get a jackpot cheap fuel price for a momentary blip on flight utilization.

FANTASTIC DECISION!

AirAsia Group hedges over 50 pct fuel consumption for 2020
January 7, 2020

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/01/554264/airasia-group-hedges-over-50-pct-fuel-consumption-2020

SEPANG: AirAsia Group Bhd (AirAsia) has hedged over 50 per cent of its fuel consumption throughout this year, said executive chairman Datuk Kamarudin Meranun.

He said the move was made after factoring in the additional flights and fare promotions that would be introduced during the festive seasons this year.

“Previously, we have done between 50 per cent and 60 per cent of fuel hedging. Next year, we are also looking at hedging when the price is lower,” he said at the press conference after launching AirAsia’s special flights for Chinese New Year here today.

.................

Now at cheap Brent of US$ 54...they still have 50% supply to be hedged at super cheap price!!

Flying will costs like water.
............................

u sure...people still panic? I cant even smell the panic flavor anymore....

more like panic buy....as the trend had conclusively reversed.

...its a high volume counter, you will still likely have a chance to buy at 1.31 on Monday...

dont worry


Posted by Trouble Huat > Feb 7, 2020 9:04 PM | Report Abuse

IB will use the news to push lower for panic sell among public. Then they able to buy cheaper the share. We shall follow the trend

on contrary MACC thinks "this sponsorship was done in a true spirit of partnership and business synergy".

why you all so blur...you all dont know how Tun M thinks...

now he will make it come out officially from MACC that :
.......................................................

"MACC could not find any evidence that the sponsored money of US$ 50M for Caterham F1 team by AIRBUS had been channelled to any of TF or KM financial accounts directly or indirectly to give rise to any credence to the "bribery" allegations made by the UK court documents."

冷眼】乱世中怎样投资？（上篇）

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Fri, 7 Feb 2020

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/cold_eyed_step_by_step/2020-02-07-story-h1483080294.jsp

新冠肺炎料3个月内结束

③在亚洲，国与国之间虽有歧见，但都无伤大雅，目前闹得沸沸腾腾的新冠肺炎，在中国全力以赴下，我预料在3个月内就结束。大家显然是“过虑”。

中国所采取的应对措施，反映这个国家的施政效率，在这种登高一呼，万山响应的情势下，中国没有解决不了的问题，投资者曾以因新冠肺炎为作出投资决定的根据，3个月后就证明是过虑之举。投资必须着眼于中长期，着眼于短期而成功者，少之又少。

difficult to buy cheap further....appears like it will never come down

Look at the cost they incur for buying the planes from Airbus below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AirAsia

On June 2011 AirAsia ordered 200 Airbus A320neos at the Paris Air Show.[67][68] The planes were originally due to become available in 2015, and the deal was one of the largest ever for commercial aircraft in a single order.[67] The deal was worth US$18 billion at list prices, although AirAsia will have obtained a substantial discount from those prices. The deal makes AirAsia Airbus' single biggest customer.

On 13 December 2012, AirAsia placed an order for an additional 100 Airbus A320 jets, splitting it between 64 A320neo and 36 A320ceo.[70] At the Farnborough International Air Show in 2016, Air Asia ordered 100 A321neos at an estimated cost of US$12.6 Billion dollars at list prices.

Air Asia plans to fly these larger aircraft to airports that have infrastructure constraints.[72] AirAsia received its first A320neo In September 2016.

With this, the total number of orders that AirAsia had placed for the Airbus A320 family had gone up to 575, reaffirming the carrier's position as the largest airline customer for the Airbus single aisle product line.[73]



(1) WHAT AIRBUS GAINS?
.......................


say Airbus hikes their margin by 0.5% by bribing TF and KM with US$ 50M:

Airbus cost of 300 Units: US$ 18B + US$ 12.6B = US$ 30.6B

Airbus gain:

= 0.5% x US$ 30.6 B
= RM 650 Million

Net Airbus gain:

= RM 650 Million - RM 200 M (bribery)
= RM 450 Milliom




(2) WHAT TF & KM GAINED?

.........................


What TF & KM gained from bribery of US$ 50M:

= RM 200 M

loss in AA with combined stake of 32%:

= 32% x 650 Million (cost hike)
= RM 210,000

Net gain by TF & KM:
= 200 - 210
= - 10 Million

...................

From the above, i cannot see any logic even if 100% of the bribery amount of 200 M went into their pocket...

will Airbus just for the sake RM 450M gain bribe RM 200M?
If Airbus benefited more by hiking more on their planes price....TF & KM will definitely suffer greater loss...

I hope the above rational, logical argument sinks to everyone's head.

==========================================================

thank you for the comment beary

today's death count no longer changing significantly from yesterday's

i think with the new hospital..they are making good progress