Post removed.Why?

To those who want to understand the meaning of synchronization in detail:

The grid is like one generator (composite of many generators from different plants) and the other is the new generator to be synced:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=27&v=RGPCIypib5Q&feature=emb_logo

If two AC sources are to be connected together to form a grid, they must match each other exactly in frequency, phase, and voltage.

Its same like connecting two DC batteries in parallel - the + & - must be placed on the same side to power a light bulb.

The difference for AC power is that the polarity keeps changing alternatively.....

so sync means having to dance together with the rhythm of the National Grid.

...........................

If you understand the above , you would appreciate that its as good as COD.

ok thanks Ricky Kiat. Good to ask management on Unit 2 boilers status.

Note that, Synchronization means power is being supplied to the National Grid.

But in order for payment to take place from EVN, it is usual to expect certain characteristic of the power - reliability, efficiency, voltage etc...for EVN to honour the payments.

As explained by others earlier its expected that the power supplied between synchronization to COD will also get paid depending on how reliable it is.

....

may be you can ask confirmation on the above too to Mr. Andy

@OTB, if you see the video on 'Unit 1 Synchronization of the CPHGC Plant' the 23 days they say is the duration between boiler ignition to synchronization to the grid which took place on 28 Dec 2018.

COD means Commercial Operation Date if i understand correctly and that will take place after reliability and performance verification in 1 or 2 months after synchronization.

The celebration is for synchronization not COD.

may be they have 4 boilers - 2 boiler for each unit.

But 23 days says a lot how near we are.

welcome VIN3133.

CPEC were truly amazing in Pakistan despite a challenging environment- 23 days from boiler ignition to synchronization to the Grid.

Boiler ignition was the date they fire for steam production / steam blowing they did earlier.

If you see mmk79 posting translated below - we actually have both unit boiler ignited by 28th Jan at Hai Duong.

This means, technically Hai Duong Thermal power plant can actually achieve synchronization to the grid for UNIT 2 on top UNIT 1 by June 2020.

At current level of power desperation by EVN, it is not impossible.

may be its a good question to ask Mr. Andy



Posted by mmk79 > Mar 6, 2020 11:31 PM | Report Abuse

Ignition and flushing of two boilers for Unit 1 of Vietnam Haiyang Power Plant Project completed At 14:58 local time on January 28, two 600,000-kilowatt coal-fired power plants in Vietnam, Haiyang, Vietnam, invested and constructed by China Energy Construction Investment Corporation, contracted by Southwest Institute, contracted by Anhui Power Construction Company No. 1, and technology development company. The completion of the ignition and flushing of the No. 2 boiler of Unit 1 marks the successful completion of the flushing of the two boilers of Unit 1 and laid the foundation for the complete start-up of the unit and its grid-connected power generation. The blowing work of Unit 1 started from the ignition of the No. 1 boiler burner to the successful firing of the No. 2 boiler for two consecutive blow-shooting targets, which lasted for 18 days.

The flushing range mainly includes boiler superheater tubes, low temperature reheaters, high temperature reheaters, The main steam pipe, reheating hot section pipe, reheating cold section pipe, and low side pipe are carried out in three stages. After 94 pressure reduction flushing pipes, No. 2 boiler flushing pipe was completed to a high standard.

The above is scheduled within next 2-3 weeks for Hai Duong Thermal Power plant and its pathetic to see how market is treating JAKS share price.

Commercial operation date (COD) is nothing - its the Synchronization to the Grid which is the ultimate event.

In Hai Duong it will appear more like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WZrqwtj11Y

synchronization to the grid is such a critical event to celebrate:

Below shows 750MW in 2003 - with old fashioned control panels (when you dont have advanced PLC, DCS control system like we have for Hai Duong)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zw39gxIqfVU

root cause is Tun - fullstop

he became the creator and destroyer

it has tremendous implications:

- AG Thomas resigned
- Lateefa resigned
- Najib and Zahid feels they are no longer prosecutable
- Justo left malaysia
- Sedition act were never removed
- Death penalty were never removed
- 1MDB trial will never conclude together with Altantuya case
- Rakyat who spent so much energy to vote will no longer feel any meaning in voting

Instead they may ban liquor shops and 'sexy dress' in public etc...

seriously hopeless country
(not sure how to motivate myself - frankly)
.......

I am predicting more covid cases in Malaysia as we may have as good as Iran government here

7.5% increase in national consumption load means, an increase of 10.7 Billion kwH.

While supply drops by 3.1 Billion kwH from Hydropower.

Net shortfall = 13.8 Billion kwH
.................................

Hydropower is in shortage of over 3 billion kWh compared to the same period in 2019

4th March 2020

https://www.evn.com.vn/d6/news/Thuy-dien-thieu-hut-hon-3-ty-kWh-so-voi-cung-ky-2019-6-12-25175.aspx

Hydropower is in shortage of over 3 billion kWh compared to the same period in 2019.

The electricity supply from March to the end of the dry season 2020 is forecasted to face many difficulties. Up to the beginning of March 2020, hydroelectric reservoirs are having water level from 5m to 24m lower than the same period last year. The total amount of water in hydroelectric reservoirs is lower than 7.47 billion m3, equivalent to 3.15 billion kWh.

..............

Since water is poor in hydroelectric reservoirs, mobilization from coal and gas thermo-electricity plays an important role in ensuring electricity supply in the dry season as well as the whole 2020.

In the first 2 months of the year, although many production, business and service sectors were affected by COVID-19, the national consumption load increased by 7.5% compared to the same period in 2019

i understand & feel every single bit of what you said here pjseow

my small plantation had just began to fruit....yield & current FFB price is still not sufficient to break-even maintenance cost

Posted by pjseow > Mar 6, 2020 2:26 PM | Report Abuse

Investing in.power plant business is like investing in oil palms. It will take 4 to 5 years for the oil palm.trees to bear fruits. During.the period of 4 to 5 years, there is no income but expenses to put fertilizers and clear the weeds. You will also see palm oil prices swing.up and down, drought, flood or sunshine. You dont sell your plantatiion half way whenever you see the market swings or political issues. This is the type of perseverance and mentality you need for long term investment .One thing you know for sure when you see the trees grow taller and start to flower , money and wealth.is coming .Not many can wait so long and has the patience . Can you see Hai Doung.power plant start to flower??

@siongkhoon, please refer DK66 article 'Jaks Resources - A Wild Estimate Based On Abbreviated Results' - its from an exact identical plant with similar contract just started operation about a year ago.

they are not smarter than you Flintstones - to get convinced on the earnings projected...

Its ironic that at such record low level Interest Rate from Central Banks, market had given such low PE to stocks in Bursa due to extreme pessimism/uncertainty.

A low PE is justified on a stock with a high uncertainty of future earnings - due to perceived risk. As market uses a greater discount factor.

This is justified for country with political instability and general decline in productivity growth - GDP. This is true for Malaysian local businesses now..including Banks.

However:
........

(1) JAKS is not a local company.

JAKS should not be treated as a local company when JAKS power plant is a foreign business in one of the most rapidly growing economy - Vietnam.


(2) JAKS is not in a vulnerable sector in a declining economy.

Market is being blind now as it has not screened JAKS out as a utility sector from other vulnerable sectors in a declining economy.


(3) JAKS is a utility stock with a BOT contract with high degree of certainty in profitability.

The BOT contract assures a stable recurring income for next 25 years.

.............

As such,

JAKS should not be trading at PE lesser than 10 at any point in time.

Given a dividend payout policy of say 50% in the future...the PE should not be anything lesser than 15 (at such low interest rate environment).

nobody provided cosmetic data here.....should really appreciate to have DK66 . Only with his sharing you will have an edge over the IB.

Else, IB will wallop first and give TP after it reaches close to fair value later.

I must remind: DK66 is sharing truly precious information
............

posted by busyweekly8888 > Mar 4, 2020 10:33 AM | Report Abuse

ok thanks to probability. I respect him at least he also point out good and bad sides. unlike someone keep telling good sides and provide cosmetic data and target price.

MFCB is on the same region ma.....same business concept and pricing..

go through articles from DK66 - comparison done with Mong Duong 2 and Vinh Tan 1...

These are exact apple to apple comparison..planted on the same soil....

Posted by busyweekly8888 > Mar 4, 2020 10:23 AM | Report Abuse

thanks probability.

We can take Mudajaya as reference. Why must take MFCB?

on Public invest article...these were my comments earlier.

Posted by probability > Feb 28, 2020 12:56 PM | Report Abuse X

we understand that the completion of its first unit which was initially thought to be by end-2019 is now postponed due to Covid-19. The commercial operation date (COD) is now targeted for 3QFY20,

............

since when was the commercial operation targeted end 2019?

The placement to the grid is as always as planned Mid March 20 and commercial operation by May/June 2020.

How the heck coronavirus can have effects on a targetted operation end of 2019 when it only came to know early 2020?

How can coronavirus effect scheduled plant operation? Vietnam is one of the best country in terms of control placed and the infections there had become nil for sometime.

exploitative and misleading justification from PB

busyweekly...impart u some process plant knowledge...

maintenance costs happen after operation...

start up costs happen before operation....

start up costs are peanuts here...just the coal which was burnt but unutilized for power generation...thats like 2-3 days of operating cost.....

and by the way....its fuel cost passed through mechanism for BOT.

TQ

@liewtz06, i think you can see it this way from the below data:
.......................................................

Vinh Tan 1 is 55% owned by China Southern Power Grid

The PATNCI of China Southern Power Grid for 9 months ended 30th Sept 2019 was RMB 1,127m ( 9 months 2018 : RMB754m)

The PATNCI of China Southern Power Grid for 2018 which is attributable to Vinh Tan 1 was RMB56m
.......................................................

PATNCI of China Southern Power Grid for 9 months ended 30-09-2019
RMB 1,127m...(1)


PATNCI of China Southern Power Grid for the last 9 months in 2018 ended 31-12-2018:
RMB 754m

Deduct the RM45m contributed by Vinh Tan 1 at end of 2018
RMB 709m.....(2)


As such, (2) is without Vinh Tan 1 contribution and (1) is with Vinh Tan 1 contribution for a 9 months period (with +/- potential contribution from others which is assumed zero - which is a fair neutral assumption).

The changes , i,e difference between (2) & (1) is then the PATNCI from Vinh Tan 1 contribution for 9 months = RMB 418m

12 months prorated contribution would be = RMB 557m

Since PATNCI holds 45% stakes, at 100% stakes Vinh Tan 1 PAT would be:
= (100/45)*(RMB 557m)
= RMB 1238m
= RM 743m

at JAKS 30% and 40% stakes it would be RM 222m and RM 297m respectively.


correct if my understanding is wrong DK66 :)

above derivations appears highly consistent with Mong duong performance and also based on IRR and payback estimation given by Jaks management earlier.

Its a 'Jackpot stock' which the market yet to appreciate despite so close to power generation...

we cant predict market's behaviour in the near term.....but 'time' is an inevitable force we can count on to push the market in the right direction.

1) 7-15.3.2020, unit 1 will join the grid for the first time;
2) 1-15.4.2020 will test reliability and
3) May 15 - 15.6.2020 will operate commercially.

..........

(3) means selling the electricity. For (2) there were news earlier saying they can get paid during this phase too. On (1), i doubt.

So, Q2 20' may show some revenue recognization from power sales - not in Q1 20'

at 93% completion its not impossible for Unit 2 to be placed to the grid much earlier almost simultaneously with unit 1 COD.

After all EVN is hungry for it.

EVN is so desperate that they are even eyeing power from start up / reliability phase.

Trust Hai Duong power plant will get paid as early as March itself if things goes as scheduled.

walao..what an opportunist Dr. Wee

Though you have to offset the Debt with the free cashflow (from depreciation) later, it gives enormous opportunity to finance new investment.

since the profit covers the interest cost of the 75% debt finance.

Correct me if am wrong on a simple fact here:
............................................

As long the IPP guarantees a profit, JAKS at 40% stake will derive depreciation cash flow of:

(US$ 1.87 Billion / 25 years) x 40%
= US$ 30 Million
= RM 126 Million ( @ US-RM ex 4.2)

If management only commits 120 Million @ 30% stakes, 40% will be 160 Million profit.

So you have potential 286 Million free cash flow per annum currently just with 120 Million profit estimation.

That is 1/3 of the market cap currently right?
.............................................

I guess we are definitely not promising moon & stars here.

This is how you can get your evil objective done and die as a saint....well done Tun.

I hope this is final.....

Ok noted OTB.

At current expectation of EVN, they are targeting 4000 hrs in less than 6 months itself, you add another 3600 for the next half (avg rate of 7200/year), you end up at 7600 hrs per year.

So, there could be a lot of potential there.

@OTB, on 7238 hrs, it would be something that is easily achievable as proven by Vinh Tan 1. My query to the management would be, what was their 12% IRR based on - was it based on 6500 hrs operating hours?

If you see the link below from DK66:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2019-12-09-story245519-Jaks_Resources_Higher_Expected_Investment_Returns_from_JHDP.jsp


Management Guidance

Jaks' CEO Andy Ang has indicated during the recent AGM that the power purchase agreement and hence earnings estimate of JHDP was formulated on the basis of 6500 annual utilization hours.

Therefore, management guidance of 8 years payback period and 12% IRR were based on 6500 annual utilization hours.

.......

If the above is true....it means we have plenty of room for higher IRR.

The IRR will easily increase by 1.4% for every rise of 300 hrs in operation from 6500 hrs. At 7200, IRR will be about 15%.

I agree PH is not clean...LGE was already when came....no one is clean....but at least they will lead to a cleaner path.....at least the current set up will prevent them from getting dirtier..

Tun did not even give them a chance to freely decide...

productivity of a country cannot be created by thin air...it requires hardwork , meritrocracy, competence...the country has no capable intelligent leaders....at the least create a room to cultivate one....

with UMNO i see no hope to cultivate...

how sure the UMNO will not take care of their own interest more than the country?

izok, how certain that now you can prevent another Najib from forming?

to all the Malays...who are sided to UMNO.....you had wasted a precious opportunity to bring the country into an economic power...

with current education system...and with current religious hypocrisy in Malaysia.... your neighbours will be far far greater than you.

Post removed.Why?

the no.1 asshole is Tun...there is a deep hatred against other race in him....

true racist

@pjseow...

China infections rate had reduced tremendously... we have only Iran, Italy and South korea as a headache now...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Iran is as good as self quarantined..and has no economic value...

The moment the count stops rising in Italy and South Korea...war on virus is as good as over...and DJIA will recover fast..

hopefully malaysian politics will also - though it has no whatsoever connection with jaks power plant...other than weakening ringgit further...

@ATT31786, guessed so DK66 is a man...

elbrutus, OTB said 'soon' only...date is not fixed yet.

Posted by OTB > Feb 28, 2020 9:13 AM | Report Abuse

The management of Jaks will hold analyst briefing soon, I was informed that I will be invited to attend this briefing.
I think DK66 should attend this analyst briefing.
Thank you.

his hardwork will pay...not your mockery

Important extract from DK66's article:
...............

What would be the profit attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent (Jaks) if the one off impairments were taken out?

It would be RM44m (18m + 11m + 30m/2) in Q4 2019

RM44m
.....

Important extract from DK66's article update:
...............

What would be the profit attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent (Jaks) if the one off impairments were taken out?

It would be RM44m (18m + 11m + 30m/2) in Q4 2019

RM44m
.....

also:
.....

It is required that the thermal power plants must ensure the dry season output (the number of hours of operation is more than 4,000 hours)

also:
.....

It is required that the thermal power plants must ensure the dry season output (the number of hours of operation is more than 4,000 hours)