simple rock bottom EPS derivation for HY going forward:
........................................

Diesel & Jet Fuel combined yield (46% Diesel + 7% Jet Fuel) of 53 %,
lets conservatively use: 50%

Diesel & Jet Fuel crack assumed averages going forward 30 USD/brl (not difficult considering it had averaged 43 USD/brl last 6 months)

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Gross margin from Diesel & Jet Fuel alone:

= (10.5 million barrels/qtr x 50% yield) x (30 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.50/USD)
= 708 million MYR ....

PBT = 628 million
PAT = 477 million
EPS = 1.59
..........

The above is assuming zero contribution from Gasoline which they had hedged at least 18 million barrels at about 10 USD/brl (good for 4 quarters output, i.e at 3.6 million barrels gasoline per qtr at 35% yield).

This is the advantage HY has over other refineries like Petron while having almost zero output of Fuel Oil as a complex refinery (Fuel oil is at negative 31 USD/brl crack spread)

latest crack spread update: Diesel @42 USD/brl, Gasoline @7 USD/brl, Jet Fuel @31 USD/brl
..........................

LOW SULPHUR GASOIL CRACK SPREAD (1000MT) FINANCIAL FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)GOC1!
GOC1!NYMEX
42.115
D
USD
+0.312
(+0.75%)
MARKET CLOSED


SINGAPORE MOGAS 92 UNLEADED (PLATTS) BRENT CRACK SPREAD FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)D1N1!
D1N1!NYMEX
2.027
D
USD
+0.646
(+46.78%)
MARKET CLOSED

SINGAPORE MOGAS 95 UNLEADED (PLATTS) VS. SINGAPORE MOGAS 92 UNLEADED (PLATTS) FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)SMU1!
SMU1!NYMEX
See more on advanced chart
5.052
D
USD
+0.067
(+1.34%)
MARKET CLOSED

SINGAPORE JET KEROSENE (PLATTS) DUBAI (PLATTS) CRACK SPREAD FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)ASD1!
ASD1!NYMEX
See more on advanced chart
30.992
D
USD
−0.452
(−1.44%)
MARKET CLOSED

crack spread is strengthening further, you will see it rise further tomorrow

Even Q4 is going to be excellent..

HY will be a net cash company that is going to regularly provide dividends.

simple rock bottom EPS derivation for HY going forward:
........................................

Diesel & Jet Fuel combined yield (46% Diesel + 7% Jet Fuel) of 53 %,
lets conservatively use: 50%

Diesel & Jet Fuel crack assumed averages going forward 30 USD/brl (not difficult considering it had averaged 43 USD/brl last 6 months)

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Gross margin from Diesel & Jet Fuel alone:

= (10.5 million barrels/qtr x 50% yield) x (30 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.50/USD)
= 708 million MYR ....

PBT = 628 million
PAT = 477 million
EPS = 1.59
..........

The above is assuming zero contribution from Gasoline which they had hedged at least 18 million barrels at about 10 USD/brl (good for 4 quarters output, i.e at 3.6 million barrels gasoline per qtr at 35% yield).

This is the advantage HY has over other refineries like Petron while having almost zero output of Fuel Oil as a complex refinery (Fuel oil is at negative 31 USD/brl crack spread)

simple rock bottom EPS derivation for HY:
........................................

Diesel & Jet Fuel combined yield (46% Diesel + 7% Jet Fuel) of 53 %, conservatively use: 50%

Diesel & Jet Fuel crack assumed averages going forward 30 USD/brl (not difficult considering it had averaged 43 USD/brl last 6 months)


Gross margin from Diesel & Jet Fuel alone:

= (10.5 million barrels/qtr x 50% yield) x (30 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.64/USD)
= 730 million MYR ....

PBT = 650 million
PAT = 494 million
EPS = 1.64
..........

The above is assuming zero contribution from Gasoline which they had hedged at least 18 million barrels at about 10 USD/brl (good for 4 quarters output, i.e at 3.6 million barrels gasoline per qtr at 35% yield).

This is the advantage HY has over other refineries while having almost zero output of Fuel Oil (at negative crack spread) as complex refiner

Going forward, simpler derivation to use on minimum possible EPS per QTR:
......


Diesel & Jet Fuel combined yield (46% Diesel + 7% Jet Fuel) of 53 %, conservatively use: 50%

Diesel & Jet Fuel crack assumed averages going forward 30 USD/brl (not difficult considering below news)

Worst of Europe’s Diesel Crunch Will Hit in Spring

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-09/worst-of-europe-s-diesel-crunch-won-t-hit-until-spring?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google

Gross margin from Diesel & Jet Fuel alone

= (10.5 million barrels/qtr x 50% yield) x (30 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.64/USD)
= 730 million MYR ....

PBT = 650 million
PAT = 494 million
EPS = 1.64
..........

Posted by probability > Oct 2, 2022 9:21 PM | Report Abuse

Malaysia Diesel output (MT):

Apr: 728,887
May: 886,360
June: 1,189,158
July: 1,237,929
August: 1,633,000

It cannot be too far from below:
..................................

Posted by probability > Oct 7, 2022 10:52 PM | Report Abuse

Diesel at 46% yield, at say crack spread of USD 43.6/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Gross margin from Diesel alone

= (10.5 million barrels/qtr x 46% yield) x (43.6 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.64/USD)
= 977 million MYR ....


PBT = 897 million
PAT = 681 million
EPS = 2.27

petron corp would have huge impact from gasoline price dip at the end of qtr from their retail segment, you cannot compare with pure refiner like HY

below remains

Q3 - Rock bottom EPS analysis

(using lowest possible average crack spread during the period - as if it was this level every single day of 90 days in a quarter)
.........................

Using extreme conservative scenario where 50% of HY throughput is hedged where they will only reflect hedge margin at extra low 10 USD/brl, with the balance free to capture market margin

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 39/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 29/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

3. Gasoline at 35% yield, cracks USD 7/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

3. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7/brl

Gross profit from (Hedged) portion:
..............................

= (10.7 million x 50%) x (10 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 240 million MYR .....(1)



Gross profit (UN-HEDGED) portion:
............................

Refining margin/brl:

= (0.46 x 39) + (0.07 x 29) + (0.35 x 7) + (0.12 x 7)
= (17.9 + 2.0 + 2.5 + 0.8)
= US $ 23.2 / brl

Gross profit:
= (10.7 million x 50%) x (23.2 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 558 million MYR ......(2)



Total gross profit (1) + (2)
= 240 + 558
= 798 million MYR

PBT = 718 million
PAT = 545 million
EPS = 1.81

MALAYSIA DATA: Diesel output jumps 32%

https://www.qcintel.com/article/malaysia-data-diesel-output-jumps-32-gasoline-up-14-9038.html

Malaysia’s diesel production jumped 32% month-on-month to 1.633 million mt in August

Posted by probability > Oct 2, 2022 9:21 PM | Report Abuse

Malaysia Diesel output (MT):

Apr: 728,887
May: 886,360
June: 1,189,158
July: 1,237,929

a naysayer repeating a demoting post...once already read by the invested in HY will no longer have any value by reposting

however, a promoter repeating a valuable information that often gets swept away by flood of nonsense post (including those which does not add any info on the stock like some of Ular's chit chats - but i admit Ular does at time adds value to the valuation by the forumers)...needs to be repeated.

reason, these info can be overlooked by investors elsewhere (non HY) and may pull them in to HY when they read...as fresh buyers comes in it may help the stock

one can argue demoters post may act as a deterrant to the newcomers but..but the odds are high that its fueled more by jealousy than any real intention to helps others selflessly..

it deprives healthy discussion to debate on what should be the fair valuation...

However, i must add that simply posting with the objective of speculating others objective, talking about the promoters or demoters without a more concrete justification...all the time and flooding the forum is truly annoying

Give a like to these statements from Ular..:)

Posted by UlarSawa > Oct 9, 2022 10:55 AM | Report Abuse

Haiyoh. Keep reposting the same post pun very much like playing broken record also leh. Be creative sikit leh. At least change the banner leh. Same one see few times pun basi leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > Oct 9, 2022 11:03 AM | Report Abuse

Playing broken records is like no new idea to post and keep reposting the same post repeatedly leh. Be creative sikit leh. Can rephrase it or add new words or not. So boring leh. Read once is ok. Read twice still ok. Read thrice getting boring leh. Not to mention want to read countless times siapa so c2pig want to read again lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

@cactus81,

we do not have crack spread chart for mogas95 against brent as such we use the below two charts (mogas92 crack against brent and the difference between mogas95 and mogas92 to derive the crack spread of mogas 95 against brent)

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

from above, current crack: -1.17 + 2.84
= 1.67 USD/brl

Posted by cactus81 > Oct 8, 2022 7:19 PM | Report Abuse

@Probability
Malaysia petrol is ron95 but the d1n1 is refer to ron92. Any relation?

Amazing its 59.5 USD/brl now...the way its going it may even deliver its marker cap in a single quarter..


Posted by probability > Oct 7, 2022 10:52 PM | Report Abuse

Diesel at 46% yield, at say crack spread of USD 45/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Gross margin from Diesel alone

= (10.7 million barrels/qtr x 46% yield) x (45 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.64/USD)
= 1027 million MYR ....


PBT = 947 million
PAT = 720 million
EPS = 2.40

..............

today's Diesel crack spread: 55 USD/brl

Expect Monday reading to be even higher...

ok thanks for the explanation Rabbit2..

Diesel at 46% yield, at say crack spread of USD 45/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Gross margin from Diesel alone

= (10.7 million barrels/qtr x 46% yield) x (45 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.64/USD)
= 1027 million MYR ....


PBT = 947 million
PAT = 720 million
EPS = 2.40

..............

today's Diesel crack spread: 55 USD/brl

Expect Monday reading to be even higher...

30/09/2022
...........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 1.652

change in mogas92 spread between Q2 & Q1: 16.733
Change in net asset in OCI between Q2 & Q1:
[(1.751-0.261)-(0.339-0.045)] = 1.196 billion

change in mogas92 spread between Q3 & Q2: - 29.926
Thus, change in net asset between Q3 & Q2:

[(1.751-0.261) - (0.339-0.045)]*(29.926/16.733)
= 1.196*(29.926/16.733)
= 2.14 billion change (equivalent to RM 7)

OCI net asset in Q3 will be: (1.49 Billion) + 2.14 Billion
= 650 million

NTA will rise by RM 7 as a minimum in Q3

Marathon's Garyville refinery hit by fire, BP's Toledo set for extended shutdown

3h ago

Operations have been disrupted following a fire at Marathon Petroleum Corp's refinery in Garyville, Louisiana, but so far the company has not commented on the extent of the damage.

According to Marathon's website, the facility along the Mississippi River has a refining capacity of 578,000 barrels per day, making it the third-largest in the country.

Wednesday's fire injured two workers, a company spokesman said, but was extinguished by Marathon Petroleum's own fire crews.

The same plant was rocked by an explosion in February of this year on the 110,000-bpd hydrocracker, a key unit that upgrades low-quality heavy gas oils from the atmospheric or vacuum distillation tower into jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported this week that BP had laid off most contractors at the 160,000 barrel-per-day Toledo, Ohio, refinery it owns with Cenovus Energy, indicating that the plant will experience a prolonged shutdown following last week's explosion and fire.

The more than 100-year-old refinery has been offline since the middle of last week following the explosion and will likely be shut for several months.

yeah take your time..thanks

Posted by Rabbit2 > Oct 7, 2022 2:32 PM | Report Abuse

@probability
Will reply you tonight when I'm free

@Rabbit2,

can HY realize all their hedging instruments on refining margin swap, e.g for gasoline in order to realize whatever gain they can make now due to present crack spread, in a single quarter instead of using it for hedging purpose distributed along with the physical market transaction, if they wish to do so?

I mean, is it legally/based on audit requirement, acceptable to do so?

crack spread exploded further up again.. watch the figure on Friday

that Bob will change his tune, even with 10 cents up

Post removed.Why?

OTB, you know i am always consistent what what i say..

its just that people like Bob irritate me when they keep changing their tunes and flood the forum with rubbish comments

at times i feel like giving them the taste of what they give here


Posted by OTB > Oct 6, 2022 3:58 PM | Report Abuse

Dear BobAxelrod and probability,

I appeal to both of you for help.
Please do your part to help all small investors in Hengyuan to make money.
This good fundamental stocks will move up north very fast, please do your part.
I hope all investors will make money from this good fundamental stock.
Thank you.

this forum is only for personal attack....no need to talk about numbers..

gasoline crack spread had crashed ...Q3 results will be a loss...better to sell now before its too late...

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

common..you can do better...

calling all the naysayers...make it drop la..

he he..its not losing it..but confidence..

make it drop la...

low IQ scumbag...

Post removed.Why?

get lost scumbag...HY forum do not need u here...

let it drop la..as long scumbag like you get wiped out...

low IQ scumbag..posting messages without a clue...

you think you can make the price drop ah? LOL...

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

no backbone..cocks**ker

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

yes..exactly...i hope everyone comprehend..

this is how qqq3 looks in real life:

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sD8qz0fZOaE/XXH88EABoSI/AAAAAAAADAs/yWxzQjZjv7IovG9pjcmlqdEaR8nVF8BwACLcBGAs/s1600/Gollum%2B7.webp

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?