Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

its so confused..spending all its remaining life and energy here without any purpose..

what a damaged soul..

Post removed.Why?

hi rabies..:)

Post removed.Why?

spend you time elsewhere there is value la...none of your low IQ comments have any effects on the share price..

another low IQ in the forum that does not know any other word than 'çussing'....

lesson learnt: poking directly at low IQ scumbag,,,will trigger more garbage from its rotting brain...LOL!

unfortunately there is no way you can change low IQ scumbag behaviour unless the scumbag has a brain transplant

actually one more reason, it did not go up after the Q2 results is because big players who bought before results itself must be confused with its OCI statement that had cause the NTA to decline by RM 4 (net decline considering EPS is RM 2)

we can only hope Q3 results will give them a clearer picture

exactly this is the reason it did not go up as expected earlier by myself ma...even though the earnings is better than i had predicted

this is completely beyond my control ma

surely the low IQ scumbag wont be able to understand..

Posted by UlarSawa > Oct 6, 2022 11:41 AM | Report Abuse

One thing Ular dunno what to say lah. No doubt everyone promote the ctrs want it up. But sometime just not up to them to decide it can up or not lah. Sentiment play a part also lah. Now the whole bursa pun the the bottom side leh. Mood are not there to go up also leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

unlike the low IQ scumbag..terencat akal here

you are right sifu...now this is what i call high IQ ular

Posted by UlarSawa > Oct 6, 2022 11:38 AM | Report Abuse

No lah probability is not high odd. It is the odd not say it must be high or low odd leh. Unless you put High probability then it mean high odd lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

Low IQ scumbag...spend your time elswhere la..nobody values your low iq opinion...you better realize it and spend time elsewhere for your own good...

Low IQ scumbag...spent your time elswhere la..nobody reads your garbage postings here...smells like tahi...

Posted by BobAxelrod > Oct 6, 2022 11:33 AM | Report Abuse

thats why the name 'probability'- meaning high odds ma...thats all we humans can do...haiyo, correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > Oct 6, 2022 11:25 AM | Report Abuse

Yes you can make assumptions to derive the eps. But still not 100% will be correct also leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

bring unrelate post here for what? you think a person has to be perfect and correct all the time to have the rights to voice his thoughts...

low IQ scumbag flooding the forum

if you dont know how they derive these conservatively...ask la....

just because, you dont get it...dont act smart and blame others pluck from air la...

Post removed.Why?

tomorrow Diesel crack spread will break pass 50 USD/brl

Diesel at 46% yield, at say crack spread of USD 43.6/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Gross margin from Diesel alone

= (10.7 million barrels/qtr x 46% yield) x (43.6 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.64/USD)
= 995 million MYR ....


PBT = 915 million
PAT = 695 million
EPS = 2.32

god gave you all brains to think and make use of opportunity...use it please, dont waste with such dumb discussions

guys, pls stop posting rubbish that are not related to stocks..talking about person and their intentions does not add any value..its not going to enable any of you to make money by such posts..

on Ular, at least he talks on with some logic though he is often pessimistic

Diesel at 46% yield, at today's crack USD 43.6/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Gross margin from Diesel alone

= (10.7 million barrels/qtr x 46% yield) x (43.6 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.64/USD)
= 995 million MYR ....


PBT = 915 million
PAT = 695 million
EPS = 2.32

30/09/2022
...........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 1.652

change in mogas92 spread between Q2 & Q1: 16.733
Change in net asset in OCI between Q2 & Q1:
[(1.751-0.261)-(0.339-0.045)] = 1.196 billion

change in mogas92 spread between Q3 & Q2: - 29.926
Thus, change in net asset between Q3 & Q2:

[(1.751-0.261) - (0.339-0.045)]*(29.926/16.733)
= 1.196*(29.926/16.733)
= 2.14 billion change (equivalent to RM 7)

OCI net asset in Q3 will be: (1.49 Billion) + 2.14 Billion
= 650 million

NTA will rise by RM 7 as a minimum in Q3
.........................................

Malaysia Diesel output (MT):

Apr: 728,887
May: 886,360
June: 1,189,158

July: 1,237,929

(HY had maximized Diesel output as soon Gasoline crack dipped)

Guys, Diesel output in 3rd qtr of 2022 in Malaysia is confirmed to be 50% higher than in Q2

you can expect Q3 results to be truly explosive

...............................................


MALAYSIA DATA: Seasonal slowdown sees Apr diesel output drop 40%

10 Jun 2022

Quantum Commodity Intelligence - Seasonal maintenance saw a big drop in diesel production in Malaysia, falling almost 40% over the month as gasoline output jumped around 10%, according to monthly trade ministry data published Friday.

Diesel output fell 39.4% over the month to just 728,886 mt, although that drop-off is in line with seasonal slowdown typically seen in April with output up 10.5% versus 2021 but still down 28.7% compared to 2019.

...........

MALAYSIA DATA: Diesel output at 8-month high, LNG nears record

9 Sep 2022

Malaysia’s output of diesel reached an eight-month high in July and LNG topped 3 million mt for only the second time on record, as producers responded to soaring prices for both products.

Diesel production grew 3.9% to 1.24 million tonnes, up around 2.5% on the year to its highest level since November 2021, according to data from the Malaysian Department of Statistics.

..............

1,240.000 / 728,886
= 1.70

70% higher Diesel output in July 22' compared to Apr 22'

this 2.1 Billion that is causing the NTA to rise by RM 7 is not an imaginary figure....

but can really be made into realized PROFIT of 2.1 Billion in Q3 itself..

provided HY chose to close their hedging position at the futures for all of the 16 million barrels of gasoline they had hedged (they need not wait for the instruments to mature or wait for physical market transaction for the same barrels to take place)

But, HY would not do that, as their hedging instruments are not for making gains from speculative interest..but only to deliver consistent profit every qtr....

To simplify, HY had hedged 16 million barrels of Gasoline with staggered maturity up till 2024 at USD 10/brl avg

as of Q2 closing 30/06/2022, the crack spread for gasoline had exploded to 31 USD/brl

the loss in hedging instruments if recognized going forward is as per below:

= 16 million barrels x ( 31 - 10) USD/brl
= 336 million USD ( MYR 1.5 billion at exch 4.5) net Liability!


as of Q3 closing 30/09/2022, the crack spread had collapsed to 1.65 USD/brl

the gain in hedging instruments if recognized going forward is as per below:

= 16 million barrels x ( 10 - 1.65) USD/brl
= 134 million USD ( MYR 614 billion at exch 4.6) net Asset!


So the change in net asset between Q2 and Q3 is 2.1 billion rise!
...........................................................

estimated higher as in Q2 itself they would have hedged the gasoline at higher margin than 10 USD/brl possibly raising the avg to 14USD/brl from market opportunity of 31 USD/brl during Q2

when you hedge crack spread of gasoline say 12 million barrels in Q1, it means you buy 12 million barrels of crude oil at say 100 USD/brl and sell Gasoline 12 million barrels at 110 USD/brl in futures...with staggered maturity periods...say 2 million barrels per qtr

Now say after Q2 at end of 30th June, if your crack spread for gasoline is closed at 30 USD/brl with crude price 88 USD/brl and gasoline at 118 USD/brl, the OCI will report as per below:

For crude oil bought left at 10 million barrels:
..................................

You have a loss in fair value:
= 10 million barrels x ( 88 - 100 USD/brl
= (120 million USD)

The above is the money you lose when you sell back the crude bought in futures if the price maintains going forward

For gasoline you sold at 10 million barrels:
..................................

You have a loss in fair value:
= 10 million barrels x ( 110 - 118 USD/brl
= (80 million USD)

The above is the money you lose when you buy back the gasoline you sold earlier in futures if the price maintains going forward

The net change derivatives in OCI will be:

= (120) + (80)
= (200 million USD)....(1)

The above figure is exactly the same by just seeing the change in crack spread of gasoline as per below:

= 10 million barrels left to mature x (spot crack spread at end of reporting period - hedged crack spread)
= 10 million x ( 30 - 10 )
= (200 million USD)....(2)

........

(1) and (2) shows just by looking at the change in crack spread compared to hedged values, you can determine the change in liabilities...or net asset..

1/12/2021
.........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 11.210
Assets: RM 19,663,000
Liabilities: RM (187,074,000)

31/03/2022
..........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 14.845
Assets: RM 45,186,000
Liabilities: RM (339,510,000)

30/06/2022
..........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578

change in mogas92 spread from Q1: 16.733
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM (1,751,332,000)

30/09/2022
...........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 1.652

change in mogas92 spread between Q2 & Q1: 16.733
Change in net asset in OCI between Q2 & Q1:
[(1.751-0.261)-(0.339-0.045)] = 1.196 billion

change in mogas92 spread between Q3 & Q2: - 29.926
Thus, change in net asset between Q3 & Q2:

[(1.751-0.261) - (0.339-0.045)]*(29.926/16.733)
= 1.196*(29.926/16.733)
= 2.14 billion change (equivalent to RM 7)

OCI net asset in Q3 will be: (1.49 Billion) + 2.14 Billion
= 650 million

NTA will rise by RM 7 as a minimum in Q3
.........................................

Malaysia Diesel output (MT):

Apr: 728,887
May: 886,360
June: 1,189,158

July: 1,237,929

(HY had maximized Diesel output as soon Gasoline crack dipped)

this 2.1 Billion that is causing the NTA to rise by RM 7 is not an imaginary figure....

but can really be made into realized PROFIT of 2.1 Billion in Q3 itself..

provided HY chose to close their hedging position at the futures for all of the 16 million barrels of gasoline they had hedged (they need not wait for the instruments to mature or wait for physical market transaction for the same barrels to take place)

But, HY would not do that, as their hedging instruments are not for making gains from speculative interest..but only to deliver consistent profit every qtr....

To simplify, HY had hedged 16 million barrels of Gasoline with staggered maturity up till 2024 at USD 10/brl avg

as of Q2 closing 30/06/2022, the crack spread for gasoline had exploded to 31 USD/brl

the loss in hedging instruments if recognized going forward is as per below:

= 16 million barrels x ( 31 - 10) USD/brl
= 336 million USD ( MYR 1.5 billion at exch 4.5) net Liability!


as of Q3 closing 30/09/2022, the crack spread had collapsed to 1.65 USD/brl

the gain in hedging instruments if recognized going forward is as per below:

= 16 million barrels x ( 10 - 1.65) USD/brl
= 134 million USD ( MYR 614 billion at exch 4.6) net Asset!


So the change in net asset between Q2 and Q3 is 2.1 billion rise!
...........................................................

estimated higher as in Q2 itself they would have hedged the gasoline at higher margin than 10 USD/brl possibly raising the avg to 14USD/brl from market opportunity of 31 USD/brl during Q2

when you hedge crack spread of gasoline say 12 million barrels in Q1, it means you buy 12 million barrels of crude oil at say 100 USD/brl and sell Gasoline 12 million barrels at 110 USD/brl in futures...with staggered maturity periods...say 2 million barrels per qtr

Now say after Q2 at end of 30th June, if your crack spread for gasoline is closed at 30 USD/brl with crude price 88 USD/brl and gasoline at 118 USD/brl, the OCI will report as per below:

For crude oil bought left at 10 million barrels:
..................................

You have a loss in fair value:
= 10 million barrels x ( 88 - 100 USD/brl
= (120 million USD)

The above is the money you lose when you sell back the crude bought in futures if the price maintains going forward

For gasoline you sold at 10 million barrels:
..................................

You have a loss in fair value:
= 10 million barrels x ( 110 - 118 USD/brl
= (80 million USD)

The above is the money you lose when you buy back the gasoline you sold earlier in futures if the price maintains going forward

The net change derivatives in OCI will be:

= (120) + (80)
= (200 million USD)....(1)

The above figure is exactly the same by just seeing the change in crack spread of gasoline as per below:

= 10 million barrels left to mature x (spot crack spread at end of reporting period - hedged crack spread)
= 10 million x ( 30 - 10 )
= (200 million USD)....(2)

........

(1) and (2) shows just by looking at the change in crack spread compared to hedged values, you can determine the change in liabilities...or net asset..

1/12/2021
.........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 11.210
Assets: RM 19,663,000
Liabilities: RM (187,074,000)

31/03/2022
..........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 14.845
Assets: RM 45,186,000
Liabilities: RM (339,510,000)

30/06/2022
..........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578

change in mogas92 spread from Q1: 16.733
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM (1,751,332,000)

30/09/2022
...........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 1.652

change in mogas92 spread between Q2 & Q1: 16.733
Change in net asset in OCI between Q2 & Q1:
[(1.751-0.261)-(0.339-0.045)] = 1.196 billion

change in mogas92 spread between Q3 & Q2: - 29.926
Thus, change in net asset between Q3 & Q2:

[(1.751-0.261) - (0.339-0.045)]*(29.926/16.733)
= 1.196*(29.926/16.733)
= 2.14 billion change (equivalent to RM 7)

OCI net asset in Q3 will be: (1.49 Billion) + 2.14 Billion
= 650 million

NTA will rise by RM 7 as a minimum in Q3
.........................................

nope, the net asset figure is a snapshot status at the end of qtr

it has changed from net debt of 336 million to net asset of 134 million, meaning it has received (or gained in value) for the amount 470 million between the period

Q2 end , net asset value = -336 mil
Q3 end , net asset value = 134 mil

Change in net asset between Q3 & Q2 = 134 - (- 336 mil)
= 134 + 336
= 470 million USD

Posted by Ahahah > Oct 2, 2022 12:42 PM | Report Abuse

@ probability Q2- (336mil) and Q3- 134mil. There is still loss of (336)-134 = (202) mil.

Other comprehensive income (OCI) for Q3 results:
.........................................

31/12/2021
Gasoil crack spread: USD 11.703
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 11.210
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 10.456
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 280,487,000
Assets: RM 19,663,000
Liabilities: RM (187,074,000)

31/03/2022
Gasoil crack spread: USD 33.169
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 14.845
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 22.131
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 291,009,000
Assets: RM 45,186,000
Liabilities: RM (339,510,000)

30/06/2022
Gasoil crack spread: USD 56.125
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 41.964
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM (1,751,332,000)

.....................

As of yesterday's closing:

30/09/2022
Gasoil crack spread: USD 43.661
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 1.652
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 26.560

Expect the net change in Asset (asset - liabilities) to balloon to: RM 2,300,000,000

OCI net asset will be: (1.5 Billion) + 2.3 Billion
= 800 million

NTA will rise by RM 7 as a minimum
(before even considering earnings for Q3)

i meant: as it was reported in Q1

Posted by probability > Oct 1, 2022 4:18 PM | Report Abuse X

at least 90% of the hedging instruments has to be gasoline, else OCI figures cannot be as it was reported in Q2 as the diesel and jet fuel crack had exploded by then...

very important information shared by sslee

to those who can understand, they will know how profound this is on refining margin when oil price is at this level compared to USD 50/brl in 2017


https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/refining-crude-oil-inputs-and-outputs.php#:~:text=The%20total%20volume%20of%20products,volume%20is%20called%20processing%20gain.

Posted by Sslee > Sep 30, 2022 2:36 PM | Report Abuse

Refining output is larger than input
The total volume of products refineries produce (output) is greater than the volume of crude oil that refineries process (input) because most of the products they make have a lower density than the crude oil they process. This increase in volume is called processing gain. The average processing gain at U.S. refineries was about 6.2% in 2021. In 2021, U.S. refineries produced an average of about 45 gallons of refined products for every 42-gallon barrel of crude oil they refined.

the above hedging is different than their long term maturity refining margin swap contracts

the RMSC has around 3.5 million barrels under short term maturity (for monthly closure along with physical market transaction) and balance with long term maturity based on opportunistic crack margin capture

inventory and crude oil price changes has absolutely no effect on HY P&L statement..

explained many times, monthly hedging is done simultaneously on both crude and refined products and lags by a month on cash market (physical market) transaction

thats why the phenomenal margin of June will only be reflected in July with huge hedging gains...

yup, for certain,

NTA will shoot up by RM 4 possibly (as it reverses all the loss in NTA earlier and goes into positive gain territory)

Posted by Sslee > Sep 30, 2022 12:46 PM | Report Abuse

I think in Q3 you will see some derivatives realised and unrealised gains on mogas refining margin swap contracts.

MALAYSIA DATA: DIESEL output at 8-month high, LNG nears record!

9 Sep 2022

Quantum Commodity Intelligence – Malaysia’s output of diesel reached an eight-month high in July and LNG topped 3 million mt for only the second time on record, as producers responded to soaring prices for both products.

Diesel production grew 3.9% to 1.24 million tonnes, up around 2.5% on the year to its highest level since November 2021, according to data from the Malaysian Department of Statistics.

And liquified natural gas (LNG) ticked up 1.4% to just over 3 million tonnes for only the second time on record going back to 2009.

Both diesel and natural gas markets have tightened this year sending prices soaring, especially in Europe following the war in Ukraine.

Europe has been scrambling to find alternative supplies of natural gas after political tensions with its biggest supplier – Russia – ratcheted up after the invasion.

But Europe will have to compete with Asia for LNG supplies this winter.

Fuel oil was the only other oil product to increase in July, up 14.5% from June to 172,000mt.

Malaysia’s output of gasoline fell 2.6% to 580,000mt in July, down 3% from a year earlier.

Naphtha was 16% lower at 259,000mt, down 21% from last July.

And jet fuel production fell 11% to 243,000mt, down 34% from a year earlier.

https://www.qcintel.com/article/malaysia-data-diesel-output-at-8-month-high-lng-nears-record-8378.html

@cactus, actually its possible if my deduction that they had only hedged gasoline and managed to maximize diesel yield by 3rd qtr (as it takes a little time tp switch their feed crude type, and plant process)

considering their cash flow hedge reserve figure, i would advocate on sticking to the below figure


Posted by cactus81 > Sep 30, 2022 12:05 PM | Report Abuse

@Probability, any opinion on 3rd quarter result? Is it possible 3rd result will be even higher than 2nd quarter due to hedging?



Q3 - Rock bottom EPS analysis

(using lowest possible average crack spread during the period - as if it was this level every single day of 90 days in a quarter)
.........................

Using extreme conservative scenario where 50% of HY throughput is hedged where they will only reflect hedge margin at extra low 10 USD/brl, with the balance free to capture market margin

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 39/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 29/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

3. Gasoline at 35% yield, cracks USD 7/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

3. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7/brl

Gross profit from (Hedged) portion:
..............................

= (10.7 million x 50%) x (10 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 240 million MYR .....(1)



Gross profit (UN-HEDGED) portion:
............................

Refining margin/brl:

= (0.46 x 39) + (0.07 x 29) + (0.35 x 7) + (0.12 x 7)
= (17.9 + 2.0 + 2.5 + 0.8)
= US $ 23.2 / brl

Gross profit:
= (10.7 million x 50%) x (23.2 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 558 million MYR ......(2)



Total gross profit (1) + (2)
= 240 + 558
= 798 million MYR

PBT = 718 million
PAT = 545 million
EPS = 1.81