probability

Probability | Joined since 2014-03-18

Investing Experience Not Disclosed
Risk Profile Moderate

Probability is a measure of 'likeliness' that an event will occur - there are no 100% certainty.

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2024-01-27 14:59 | Report Abuse

To all the young investors,

Insas one thing for sure, its value is way way higher than what market is pricing now....

But, all the available mechanism which can force the price to move to approach fair valuation as hinted by all sifus like KC Chong, OTB, TheEdge TKO, Sslee, Stockraider, Leno all....i guess will never come to fruition unless some human has the will to do so...

But, there is another natural mechanism...that is time

As Dato Thong Kok Khee ages..there is a high chance he has to take Insas private eventually before his passing

so the young investors has a very strong chance to gain from investment in Insas

If at all Thong handover the shares to his children before privatisation, these young investors can also do the same to their kids before their passing

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2024-01-26 21:59 | Report Abuse

amazing news just saw! Another interesting week coming...

Posted by pang72 > Jan 26, 2024 8:01 PM | Report Abuse

UBS GROUP AG (a substantial shareholder) acquired 5,865,600 shares on 22-Jan-2024.

UBS adds $14.2 mils YTL shares AGAIN

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2024-01-26 10:44 | Report Abuse

Leno..appreciate if you could calm down a bit. Your messages appears like from a clown and the cat looks like shocked & scary...most likely will chase away potential investors

TQ

Sslee brings great vibes to Insas...

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2024-01-25 20:29 | Report Abuse

Thanks moncmondo87 :)

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2024-01-25 19:30 | Report Abuse

@moncmondo87, kindly share the pdf on my messenger too, thanks

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2024-01-24 10:39 | Report Abuse

may be HLIB wouldnt like it to be published here...thats why their agents had deleted the sharing by dragon328 earlier

suggest to ping myself privately if needed...i wouldnt want dragon328 to get banned...its fine if i get banned instead

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2024-01-23 10:54 | Report Abuse

with current optimism in Bursa, Insas shall hit RM 2 anytime soon

It appears Insas management no longer has intention to keep the price depressed

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2024-01-22 12:02 | Report Abuse

ok thanks

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2024-01-22 11:58 | Report Abuse

@TheContrarian, i see..not really been reading the TheEdge on Tong's column..

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2024-01-22 11:51 | Report Abuse

Looks like really something seriously cooking at Insas...

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2024-01-21 10:01 | Report Abuse

just realized this.. thanks Goldberg

Posted by Goldberg > Jan 20, 2024 10:10 AM | Report Abuse

19-Jan-2024 Insider UBS GROUP AG (a substantial shareholder) acquired 6,596,200 shares on 16-Jan-2024.

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2024-01-12 17:00 | Report Abuse

have a nice weekend all..look forward for another exciting week ahead

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2024-01-08 20:47 | Report Abuse

this is a multibillion large market cap stock...

movement like this akin to the 2011 Japan's magnitude 8.9 earthquake where the total energy release is equivalent to about 6700 gigatons of TNT (6.7 million megatons)...generating a tsunami that went hundreds of miles

the price will go far..perhaps slowly after this... but surely

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2024-01-08 16:01 | Report Abuse

somehow i feel the foreign buying interest is related to NVIDIA

its simply too strong

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2024-01-07 14:23 | Report Abuse

reposting an important note from dragon328 to remind myself, as its easy to loose track with constant nonsense flooding the forum at times

Posted by dragon328 > Jan 5, 2024 12:28 PM | Report Abuse

The share price movement is not dictated by a few words that you said or I say, the volume of YTL Power shares traded over these few days are so high that it can only be foreign funds aggressively buying.

Foreign funds can access to more up-to-date information and more professional reports by Singapore analysts on the Singapore electricity market from research reports on listed companies there like Keppel and Sembcorp.

It is no mistake that both Keppel and Sembcorp are trading near 5 year high, at PER of 11x to 12x based on past year earnings. Investors in Keppel and Sembcorp must be happy with the earnings projection given by the respective management when they pay 11x or 12x PER for the stocks. Foreign funds must be finding YTL Power as a cheaper alternative to power plays in Singapore, as currently PowerSeraya contributes over 80% of earnings of YTLP. Even based on sole contribution from PowerSeraya alone, YTLP is trading a forward PER of less than 8.0x compared to 11x for Sembcorp. And they are getting all other assets (Wessex, Jordan, Jawa Power, data centres, WTE project, digital bank etc) of YTL Power for free.

You are right that stock market is forward looking. How far ahead would you look ahead? 12 months? 2 years? If PowerSeraya/YTLP management tells you that the strong earnings will continue into 2026, meaning FY2024 and FY2025 and possibly FY2026 earnings will be as strong from Singapore. How far ahead more will you want to look ahead?

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2024-01-05 17:11 | Report Abuse

thanks dragon328 :), wonderful first week of dragon year indeed...:)

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2024-01-05 16:03 | Report Abuse

yeah..it would be good to just strongly break out from 3.20 today

next week free runaway...for take off

Posted by Uniholder > Jan 5, 2024 3:56 PM | Report Abuse

Oh noooo, not today 3.28 plssss, 🤣

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2024-01-05 14:57 | Report Abuse

when it moves to high too fast..a lot of long term investors also has a high chance to let go....as they afraid to lose the money they suddenly made..

that is the reason the buyer is aggressive...as they want to whack before insider information comes to the general public..and of course lastly at the end...to our anal-ist before they raise the TP

Posted by Uniholder > Jan 5, 2024 2:48 PM | Report Abuse

This movement has attract a lot of people to get in the train….. 🎉

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2024-01-05 14:43 | Report Abuse

ok, 3.20 cukuplah...really dragon year 2024!

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2024-01-05 14:38 | Report Abuse

@uniholder....328 today itself is it?

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2024-01-05 12:16 | Report Abuse

Malaysian analyst may look down on YTL, but not Jensen Huang

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2024-01-05 11:17 | Report Abuse

possible ..coz i predict YTL and YTLP % rise today has to match at closing

Posted by Uniholder > Jan 5, 2024 11:15 AM | Report Abuse

Maybe…. just maybe… maybe can break 3.20 base on current movement n rally…. 😝🎈🎉

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2024-01-05 11:11 | Report Abuse

problem with foreign fund buying shares is...the TA gets difficult to predict.....its better to hold on strongly ( i regret so much for selling some call warrants too early)

they will keep buying till they are satisfied i think

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2024-01-05 11:07 | Report Abuse

omg...just keep YTLP as fixed deposit for another 2 month and see...:)

Posted by PresidentLOL > Jan 5, 2024 11:04 AM | Report Abuse

relax machaaaa. New year bull run ma, remember 2022 plantation bull run?? it last for a month. plus YTL group is in index and will bring KLSE index breakout to the moon. Bull for ytlp will last for a month til CNY and many more months. so RM5.00 before next QR :)))) boss cakap rm5.00 ya

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2024-01-05 09:46 | Report Abuse

instincts are often correct...

Posted by Uniholder > Jan 5, 2024 9:43 AM | Report Abuse

In my opinion we are not far away from 3.28 @dragon328

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2024-01-04 16:56 | Report Abuse

the buying is too strong..they are long sighted

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2024-01-04 11:17 | Report Abuse

amazing to see OTB TP for 2023 achieved (just 3 trading days slip to 2024)...

great to have gems like OTB and dragon328 in i3

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2024-01-04 08:25 | Report Abuse

@xiaochen

i didnt get what you mean by dragging down the EPS

if you have a significant capex / investment for future return, wouldnt the depreciation only take place when the investment is completed and it started to commercially produce revenue?

In such a case, the EPS would not be affected significantly

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2024-01-03 13:21 | Report Abuse

probably its because the value of NVIDIA collaboration with YTLP is difficult for many analyst to quantify

i see it as a double whammy (power demand in Singapore and lucrative DC demand in Johor)

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/12/12/boom-time-for-malaysian-ai

SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes said the surge in share prices of AI-linked companies is just the beginning and investors have not fully digested the strong upside prospects of this latest development in the tech space.

“We are only seeing the tip of the iceberg on a decade-long transition to AI.

https://wccftech.com/nvidias-h100-gpus-powered-ai-powerhouses-data-centers-consume-electricity-equivalent-to-entire-nations/

NVIDIA's H100 AI GPUs will reportedly reach a deployed capacity of a whopping 3.5 Million units by next year, consuming enough electricity to power entire countries.

Watchlist

2023-12-31 12:44 | Report Abuse

we shall choose long term value stocks with goreng2 potential..he he

Watchlist

2023-12-31 12:41 | Report Abuse

last few years i think KCChong losing money i think with his China stocks...not been tracking him..

Watchlist

2023-12-31 12:38 | Report Abuse

if i am to name two long term investors who consistently made money ..its intelligent investor and TanKW...these guys are definition of long term investors with great insight..very few can make returns like them

Watchlist

2023-12-31 12:28 | Report Abuse

any strategy is no harm one...as long as can make money..i thought sifu charlest might have long term insights too...guess no

Watchlist

2023-12-31 12:23 | Report Abuse

oh..despite me trying my best not to poke..he got pricked already..lol!

Watchlist

2023-12-31 12:08 | Report Abuse

i want to know what is Charlest pick for 2024...guess it changes very fast that you cannot choose any for long term..am i right?

Watchlist

2023-12-30 13:17 | Report Abuse

what is interesting..none of these old faces disappear from i3 to retire and be happy with the money they made even after 10 years...guess money is never enough or perhaps the fun of winning is the main aim than the money

Watchlist

2023-12-30 13:14 | Report Abuse

now i become a student only..no more calculations..let others calculate..lol!

Watchlist

2023-12-30 13:12 | Report Abuse

i wonder what sifu charlest and OTB made from 2013 till now..what is the % gain like

they are the true Bursa warriors..along with few others i know like Pang72, hng33, Intelligent Investor, gohkimhock ...

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2023-12-24 20:02 | Report Abuse

Explains why Nvidia & YTL investing DC in Johor

https://w.media/johor-batam-singapore-plus-dci-report-2022-data-centre-colocation-hyperscale-cloud-interconnection/

The overflow scenario has emerged in Southeast Asia as the Singapore data centre market enters a new phase in its evolution. A data centre build pause, put in place by the Singaporean government, effectively put a halt to the development of new supply. And while the moratorium was recently lifted, new data centre expansions will be subject to close scrutiny and probably be limited to a certain subset of operators and potentially open the door to more self-builds from hyperscalers.

Given where things are going in Singapore, the logical question is what next given that demand is not slowing down. More experimental scenarios such as underground or floating data centres have been explored, but the feasibility is questionable and the ability to serve aggressive levels of demand is just not there. Enter the overflow market. And in the context of Singapore, two nearshore locations have emerged – Johor in Malaysia and Batam in Indonesia – to try and accommodate the demand that Singapore will be less and less equipped to serve over the long-term.

Johor and Batam are situated in different jurisdictions and the underlying connectivity takes different routes. In the case of Johor, terrestrial connectivity is available, but for Indonesia, it is via subsea cables. But both locations are in close proximity and this eliminates performance degradation for a large cross-section of the workloads that exist today. Serving Singapore through Johor and Batam is entirely feasible and both operators and capital are looking very closely at the opportunity and making bets.

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2023-12-24 14:20 | Report Abuse

Looks like Nvidia has to go full swing on date center expansion in Malaysia considering the constraints in Singapore

and look at the growth in power consumption from data center


https://www.akcp.com/blog/singapore-lifting-the-ban-for-new-data-centers-whats-the-catch/

The Terms For New Data Centers

Limiting Capacity

Singapore’s government has opened up, lifting the ban for new data centers, but with constraints, including limiting the power capacity for new facilities to roughly 5 megawatts. The moratorium was a good thing to slow down the rate of expansion and reflect on the issues about sustainability and the challenges faced by the electrical grid network.

The capacity ceiling may be sufficient for retail operators, but it will be a hindrance for facilities catering to hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple, which typically demand 8-24 megawatts of electricity.

MTI said it is reaching out to industry players for feedback and further input on the amended policy, which has yet to publish comprehensive instructions. He explained that the industry’s work in 2019 was critical in helping the government devise a system that will allow the sector to grow in a sustainable manner while also ensuring that Singapore meets its climate change mitigation targets in the coming years.

As of last year, there were 70 data centers in Southeast Asia’s wealthiest country, with a total power capacity of 1,000 megawatts.

According to government data, these server hosting facilities were responsible for roughly 7% of the country’s overall power usage in 2020, up from 5.3% a year earlier.

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2023-12-24 13:56 | Report Abuse

In singapore, 7% of total power consumption goes to Data Centers....i think just a rise by another 2% (from Nvidia's growth) will make significant rise in YTL Powerseraya margin for 2024 & 2025

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2023-12-24 13:43 | Report Abuse

The below means, the power demand will exponentially rise in Singapore due to Data Centers there which is generating 15% of Nvidia's revenue presently

YTL Powerseraya will benefit by the forecasted growth in Nvidia in 2024 too

Its a double whammy for YTL Power


https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2023/10/23/how-data-centers-are-evolving-to-meet-ai-demand/?sh=7ac0b81277ac

This means we must develop and deploy solutions capable of delivering ever-increasing power over time while simultaneously employing more efficient methods to make it happen.

As supercomputers continue to shrink and become more power-dense, our industry is constantly thinking about how we keep them cool, while concurrently tapping alternative power sources to support the increased energy demand.

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2023-12-24 12:46 | Report Abuse

Data Center Business: Nvidia’s data center business has accounted for three-fourths of its total revenue in fiscal 2024. With a revenue estimate of $15 billion for the current quarter, Nvidia could generate $44 billion in data center revenue by the end of the fiscal year. If the projected 150% increase in data center GPU shipments translates into an identical jump in revenue, the company could generate a staggering $110 billion in sales from this segment alone.


https://gameishard.gg/news/heres-why-nvidia-stock-could-double-in-2024/741118/#gsc.tab=0

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2023-12-22 10:52 | Report Abuse

Just listen to the 1st minute...though i still dont get it , it seems data centre is crucial and whoever monopolize can be the gods of the future..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yd18z6iSyk

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2023-12-20 14:08 | Report Abuse

@harvest, my guess is its better for large fund to acquire ytl before ytlp...as rise in ytlp share price from accumulation will push ytl share price higher leaving lesser for cheaper price accumulation...
Another reason could be ytl revenue is more diversified and monopolistic..giving higher resilience in income for long term..
Another one could be, politicians and king could be aware of award of hsr to ytl..and multiple large scale construction projects are being placed in line for malaysia...

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2023-12-18 09:56 | Report Abuse

@harvest6138, as requested:

Malaysia’s Top Stock Is Poised For More Gains After 200% Rally
YTL Power has outperformed other big Malaysian companies
The power producer is joining the Kuala Lumpur benchmark index

By Ram Anand
18 December 2023 at 04:00 GTS

A blistering rally in YTL Power International Bhd. this year has scope to continue as better performance from its overseas assets brightens the earnings outlook for the Malaysian power producer.

The share price has more than tripled in 2023, making it the biggest gainer among local companies with a market capitalization of more than 1 billion ringgit ($214 million). Analysts are still calling for a buy in the stock, predicting that it could climb as much as 59% next year.

YTL Power and its conglomerate parent are joining the benchmark FBM KLCI Index on Monday. YTL Corp., controlled by Malaysian tycoon Francis Yeoh and his siblings, has surged almost 230% this year.

Earnings from YTL Power’s venture in neighboring Singapore will remain strong next year on elevated retail margins, while contribution from its Wessex Water unit in the UK is expected to improve as inflation slows, according to analysts. Both countries make up more than 90% of its group revenue.

There could be potential surprises to its earnings outlook too. YTL Power is expected to benefit from Malaysia’s energy transition plans, particularly in the area of renewable-energy exports. Its tie-up with Nvidia Corp. to build an artificial intelligence data center in the southern Malaysian state of Johor is adding to the optimism.

“Having presence on both sides of the border, they definitely have a big advantage” in potential energy exports to Singapore, even though the regulatory framework has yet to be completed, said Hafriz Hezry Harihodin, an analyst at MIDF Research.

READ: Nvidia Data Center Tie-Up Boosts YTL Power to Record High

YTL Power posted net income of 2 billion ringgit on the back of record revenue for the financial year ended June. Its 12-month forward earnings estimate for this quarter alone has risen nearly 28%.

Even after soaring more than 200% in 2023 to a record high earlier this month, valuations remain undemanding. YTL Power is trading at about seven times forward-earnings estimates, compared with its five-year average of almost 13 times.

The company’s improving profitability is also boosting YTL Corp, which derives more than half of its revenue from the power unit. Another potential “wild card” for the main company — which also has construction, cement and hospitality businesses — is the revival of the Singapore-Malaysia high speed rail, said MIDF’s Hafriz.

They are “most likely” to put in a bid for the revived project, he said. Malaysia is currently accepting proposals from companies and consortium who are interested in undertaking the rail link