aiyo dragon....please update your profile with email address...i think this Shahril would have surely contacted you earlier for advise on judi short term...kiki

you missed plenty of opportunities all this while for consulting service....wakakaka

may be we can look at this way...

JAKS would incur 46,800 USD additional cost (due to Coal usage) compared to MFCB for every 1 Million kWh supplied to its consumers.

That would be the best conservative estimation on it profit using MFCB profits data currently and incorporating difference in their debt structure.

not sure what would the number be...but will definitely be interesting to find out

Considering interest, administration and other variable operating costs plus the commissions to government on kWh tariffs (should be right?)....

Net profit may come very much lower
..................................

30% of 240M USD is max 80 Million USD per annum

WITHOUT - any other costs incorporated in it
.......

what is the stakes of Jaks on the Power plant - they only get 30% is it? or is it 50%?

DK66, let me know if i had missed anything - any correction you see on my calculation

For a 7.5 Billion kWh per annum power plant (as per DK66 derivation at 77% utilization), your minimum coal consumption would be:

= 7,500,000,000 kWh/ (2460 kWh/ton)
= 3 million tons coal per annum

Gross profit max = 240 Million USD per annum

so the estimation by the banker ( 120 M net profit) perhaps makes sense

Price of coal= 115 USD/ton

Price of electricity = 0.08 USD/KwH

Electricity generated per ton of coal (max) = 2,460 kWh/ton

2460 kWh = 196 USD

Meaning you create about 196 USD dollar (max consumer value) per 115 USD coal you consume

Max gross margin (excluding all other costs) = 80 USD / ton of coal


https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/energy/question481.htm

A typical 500 megawatt coal power plant produces 3.5 billion kWh per year. That is enough energy for 4 million of our light bulbs to operate year round. To produce this amount of electrical energy, the plant burns 1.43 million tons of coal.

ok thanks DK66 will revert to you on the coal to kwh conversion soon..

DK66 do you have the tariff rates per KWH power in Vietnam?

Post removed.Why?

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/vietnam-exports-coal-to-china-then-imports-coal-from-china-at-high-prices/

By the end of July 2018, Vietnam had imported 11.9 million tons of coal worth $1.4 billion. The average import turnover was VND2.6 million per ton.

While Vietnam could buy coal from Indonesia at VND1.6 million per ton, it had to pay VND8.2 million for every ton of imports from China.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/04/12/ecrl-to-go-ahead-as-costs-reduced-by-rm2pt5b-to-rm44b/


Based on the original plans, 44 tunnels are to be constructed at various locations spanning over 50km. The longest tunnel (which is now likely to be scrapped) is the Genting Tunnel measuring 17.8km (37% of total tunnel length).


The ECRL is of strategic importance to China because the Kuantan Port-ECRL-Port Klang route shortens its trading route and cuts the time it takes to travel to the west of Peninsular Malaysia while eliminating the need to use the Singapore Port.

..........................

the max reduction from its original tunnel volumes is 37% only, but more importantly it benefits MMC Corp's Port & Logistics division.

you syphon out trades directly from China instead of getting via Singapore Port route

18.Current prospects (extract from Financial report ending 31 Dec 2018)
..................................

Ports & Logistics division is expected to record positive volume growth across all the ports. Further, the completion of acquisition of the balance 51% interest in Penang Port Sdn Bhd in May 2018 will reflect its full year contribution to the division’s financial performance.

The acquisition allows the Group to establish a strong foothold in the Northern region of Peninsular Malaysia and complement the Group’s strategic presence throughout the Straits of Malacca.

Operational and cost synergies driven by MMC, would further improve the performance of its Ports & Logistics division.

The Energy & Utilities division is expected to contribute positively from the Group’s associated companies, namely Malakoff and Gas Malaysia.

Substantial existing order-book provides earnings visibility for the Engineering division anchored by the KVMRT-SSP Line underground and elevated work.

Furthermore, the earnings contribution from Engineering division will be sustained by on-going projects including Langat 2 Water Treatment Plant and Langat Centralized Sewerage Treatment Project.

feeling hungry for milk now....

it was 2.6 just 2 years ago...considered rock bottom now

3ii...you want petdag or nestle?

please decide

if no news from you, Punter will select the one he prefers end of the day

Today is the official closing date...

all sifus who had not submitted or would like to amend the stock selected above can do so by today


the winners no matter who (even if its 3ii) will have my utmost respect
...................................................................

its the ultimate test of your skills-knowledge

all great sifus are participating...its your chance to prove it

results by end of 2019.

this gas explosion news is actually a short term opportunity to buy..but i dont think one will make a good % profit trading in short term

i have some other reason (so far not disclosed) which i think pchem next earnings will be bad...i would like to verify this by seeing the earnings next qtr before concluding on pchem...

let us see Gkent vs PChem in 1 month from now....main main a bit

ok sifu...note taken. Mindset....not sure will change.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > Apr 12, 2019 10:48 AM | Report Abuse

probability you need to change your mindset lah.... buy quality, buy competitive advantaged company... Average down when it falls... not sell... the more you trade the easier you lose money!

Investment Highlights

We maintain our BUY recommendation on Petronas Chemicals Group (PChem) with an unchanged fair value of RM10.40/share based on an unchanged FY19F EV/EBITDA of 10x — 3SDs above its 3-year average of 8x given the stock’s correlation to crude oil prices.

Online media reported that an explosion and fire occurred at the Petronas' Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development (RAPID) project in Pengerang today. The blast, which appears to stem from a leaking gas tank, was loud enough to be heard within a 50km radius of the project. So far, two persons have been reported to be injured in the incident.

Recall that the group’s 50%-owned Pengerang petrochemical division has reached mechanical completion of 96% with production expected to commence towards the later parts of 2HFY19. Back in 2017, PChem has sold a 50% stake in PRPC Polymers to Saudi Aramco for RM3.8bil (US$900mil).

Given Petronas' strict adherence to health, safety and environment requirements, we expect an extensive investigation into the causes of this incident, which could delay the commencement of petrochemical production.

Management expects minimal contributions this year, with plant utilization around 70% for the first 3–6 months which will progressively ramp up to 90% over a time frame yet to be confirmed due to the complexity and integration required with Petronas’ refinery.

Likewise, our FY19F forecasts have not incorporated any increase in PChem’s output given that the group has guided that average plant utilization could remain flattish above 90%, similar to FY16–FY18. This is supported by 5 major TA activities this year, which will be spread out over 1QFY19 and 3QFY19, as compared with 6 in FY18.

However, if the RAPID investigations defer production next year, we expect a 6-month delay to cause PChem’s FY20F earnings to slightly decline by 3%, assuming product prices are stable. For now, we maintain our forecasts pending further clarity from management.

Even though management’s market guidance for 1QFY19 was bearish, we remain sanguine given that the group’s product prices have a strong correlation to Brent crude oil prices which have risen by 37% since 31 Dec 2018 to US$71/barrel currently.

This will be a greater impact to the group than temporary delays in RAPID commencement as a 1% increase in average product prices will translate to a higher 3% rise in net profit.

PChem currently trades at a reasonable FY19F EV/EBITDA of 9x, which translates to a 26% discount (vs. its 3-year average discount of 17%) to Taiwan-based Formosa Petrochemicals’ premium 12x, while its dividend yields are fair at 4%.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/AmInvestResearch/202079.jsp

thats true within small caps...but not true between big cap and small caps i think

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > Apr 12, 2019 10:43 AM | Report Abuse

very difficult strategy if u keep moving ur funds towards potential stocks with immediate catalysts

u need to have a very high hit rate to remain profitable

me too.. now days all are my sifu..youngest is Punter

me small capital Philip...with your positions i think you should hold

its easier to get a 10% return in say Gkent compared to Pchem..in a month...from what i could feel...

as there is no longer interesting market changes to move Pchem up by itself..

of course i could be wrong


Posted by ( BNF trader losses ) Philip > Apr 12, 2019 10:30 AM | Report Abuse

The real money is not in the buying or selling... But in the waiting.
The question always remains, once you sell, buy what?

I have always struggled to push my investment philosophy, buy when you see a company has a distinct competitive advantage, sell only when that competitive advantage changes, the company changes, the management deteriorates, or when your financial circumstance changes.

If the business fundamentals did not change when you guys bought the stock, or you found a more compelling stock to purchase that you do not have enough funds for, why sell at all?

It's like selling your house just because there is a +/-15% change in value.

Why bother the small changes in share price?
>>>>>>>

i sold at 9.10...break even with the dividend at 18 cents

we like to maximize gains with the capital we have..

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > Apr 12, 2019 9:46 AM | Report Abuse

aiyo.... No need monitor so closely lahhhh unkers... just leave it and let it do it's job

my advise has nothing to do with PIC explosion....you can take that out complete from your consideration....next 2 qtr earnings may be significantly bad....better to wait for the results end of next month

i sold at 9.10...break even with the dividend at 18 cents

for small holders better to sell...buy Gkent if you want...reason is coming qtr results will likely be very bad for Pchem..it will take sometime to move up significantly

Lol!I bet in just a few months..he will b ur good fren

Icon you should organize 'the i3 billionaire's club' after retirement...so that one day all great sifus can meet up and chat their success stories...and expose their handsome faces...

but..will retirement ever happen in i3...:(

and trying hard to get back...

Posted by Politically Speaking > Apr 11, 2019 6:00 PM | Report Abuse

Probability! We all came from black hole!

oh fxxk 6.5 Billion suns??


.....the universe itself just began 14 billion years ago...

does it mean every 2 year it was swallowing 2 suns? difficult to make sense

...............


Their target was a nearby galaxy dubbed M87 and its supermassive black hole, which packs the mass of six and half billion suns.

i really wish in this competition Calvintan & 3ii last position....that is my inner most objective on top of checking out the real sifus

cockroach

survived billions of years before homosapiens...

Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 11, 2019 5:36 PM | Report Abuse

qqq3 is like cockcroach

never die attitude and constantly learning and refining his knowledge...

look at the improvement in his formula! Touch of genius

qqq3 is the ultimate flexible person...he is as elastic as rubber and adaptive as water.....

all of Jon's thesis (1000 pages long) had been summarized by a simple equation.....by qqq3

if this not called genius - what else is

we choose those that has not moved ma..

Calvintan - Muiprop
3ii - Petdag

you can use the average price of this week as their starting price..
just an approximation would do

................................

let me select some stock for sifus i respect: (*based on their weightage and that has been laggard so far)

soojinhou - PetronM
updown - cypark
Intelligent investor - serbadinamik
Gohkimhock - Haio
OTB - Ancom
moneykj- dksh
KC - comfort
Yistock - Gtronic
Johnlu - GenM
TanKW - airasia

see if you can update these on the portfolio....optional..

Punter, please create portfolio containing all these stock recommended by the sifus with long Frankfurters...

easier to compare how fast their sausage expands..and who is winning

dragon...can up please leave this reban of sapura....looks like you got into a cock fight with spinninglotus...never ending...

1.70 n 2.00 may break with very little volume...i am waiting for the day this happens

ultimate stock in bursa

paper ...krono still intact? can add?

a lot of powerful sifu here...youngest is cili padi Punter!

mama tetek