you see paperplane sendai ...very power also!

the tune will get to your head...if you are aware that 'sifu' never gave a strong buy call the last 2 week on dayang....

wonder why?

should make sense now


Posted by tehka > Apr 8, 2019 6:53 PM | Report Abuse

On a balance of probability, probability's explanation sounds plausible.

the most logical explanation for Koon's leaked 'special message' is this:

- Koon had actually been selling the shares last 2 weeks or more
- Koon is aware that his selling was the sole reason it dropped below 1.50

as such, he is fully aware that the current fundamentals, deserve a price way better than 1.50....

and he is willing to help his whatsapp 'friends' this way..

knowing also, one fellow will share it outside the group to further boost the price...

good luck guys - for prosperous 2019! in 9 months!!
...............

the most logical explanation for Koon's message above is this:

- Koon had actually been selling the shares last 2 weeks or more
- Koon is aware that his selling was the sole reason it dropped below 1.50

as such, he is fully aware that the current fundamentals, deserve a price way better than 1.50....

and he is willing to help his whatsapp 'friends' this way..

knowing also, one fellow will share it outside the group to further boost the price...

good luck guys - for prosperous 2019! in 9 months!!
...............

great to have you guys..

Posted by pjseow > Apr 8, 2019 5:38 PM | Report Abuse

Probability , you are welcomed . My input and analysis was bit and pieces although it contains most of the facts like schedule rates , lump sum ,cash flow , it is Davidtslim who put them together such that it is easier to comprehend when the facts were tabulated systematically.

ha ha ...Icon8888 you always have my support...

so far the most rational cool guy in i3

willing to listen if its a logical argument from you


Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 8, 2019 5:22 PM | Report Abuse

Stockraider nowadays behaves like fortunebull

if messaged in a private group - is that considered illegal?

pjseow, it is you who had been the contributing catalyst for the articles.

BIG THANKS to you.

Posted by pjseow > Apr 8, 2019 5:13 PM | Report Abuse

Special thanks to David's Analysis of Dayang . I think his analysis with facts and figures leaves very little doubts on his valuations of Dayang .
Even with huge discounts in terms of PE and Future Cash Flow , the valuations by both methods show Dayang worth of more than RM 2 . When Q1 result show our assumption is correct , Dayang will fly further . I hope more readers can critique his analysis and open up a constructive and lively debate on the assumptions .

Hope you guys did...and enjoy the ride here too

Did tell you all to partially transfer to Dayang...

Thanks to David and uncle Koon....

facts always prevail

One my best investments ever

if by end of friday all those big mouth sifus still dont give their picks...we will randomly select one of those they had been recommending recently (or from 2019 stock pick portfolio) and put up here...

let the verdict do the talking end of the year

those who had made plenty here...distribute some on dayang...

reason is if oil price drop...hibi will drop...but not dayang..

lets be strategic


Posted by probability > Apr 6, 2019 4:04 PM | Report Abuse

i think oil price will easily shoot back to 76 or 80 USD/brl again...

the previous build up of oil from Saudi due to Iran sanction anticipation end of last year 2018 would have probably depleted to normal level...

Monday is time to whack hibiscus whole-heartedly....

Posted by probability > Apr 6, 2019 11:48 AM | Report Abuse

back to 1.20 - 1.30 next week

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/hleresearch/199652.jsp

Orderbook. Current orderbook stands at RM2.9bn including Pan Malaysia Maintenance, Construction and Modification (PM-MCM) contracts from different PSCs. Apart of from existing contracts, Dayang is expected to receive additional lump sum work orders from clients. We understand there are also some variation orders (VOs) that have been carried out last year. All the VO costs have been recognised last year and its profits will be booked in 1HFY19, pending client approval.

..................

It could be extra costs which took place beyond the agreed schedule rate and subject to customer scrutiny before agreeing on the value.

Since it is executed without a prior agreed contract due to urgency or mishaps (procurement of material to facilitate the intended services), the revenue recognizable are subjective to customer agreement.

It may be accounting requirement that these extra costs are recognized as it is executed without a contract in hand.

It is very well possible for Dayang to execute this way knowing Petronas is their key long term customer based on trust.

paperplane selected sendai

Poll shows businesses prefer GST over SST

The Edge Financial Daily

April 03, 2019

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/poll-shows-businesses-prefer-gst-over-sst

KUALA LUMPUR: Slightly more than half of the respondents surveyed (54.6%) by the Associated Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry of Malaysia (ACCCIM) indicated that the goods and services tax (GST) is a more preferred tax system than the current sales and service tax (SST).

This is particularly for the manufacturing sector. About 74.5% of respondents from the manufacturing sector preferred GST over SST — as exports are zero-rated and the sector is eligible to claim input tax. Under SST, there is no complete relief for exports. Companies cannot claim input tax under SST, except for manufacturers who deal with exports.

With the exception of the manufacturing sector and trading companies, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in most other sectors rated SST as the preferred taxation system, as SST only imposes tax at a single level compared to GST where the tax was imposed at every level, from manufacturers to wholesalers, retailers and consumers.

Meanwhile, about 41.5% of the survey respondents said that the SST has adverse impact on their business, mostly in the manufacturing and construction sectors. This is despite SST exemption being granted to main building materials and construction services.

In contrast, 52% indicated that SST has no impact on their business. Among them are from wholesale and retail trade, professional, business services and real estate sectors.

On the impact of SST on input prices, the respondents said the input prices have increased by more than 10%. The majority of them were SMEs in the wholesale and retail trade sector and manufacturing sector.

About 64.5% of the respondents in the wholesale and retail trade sector indicated an increase in the input prices, this was followed by the manufacturing (64%) and the construction sector (61.2%). For those who incur higher input prices, 66.1% of them have increased their selling prices, according to the survey. About 53.5% of respondents in the wholesale and retail trade sector indicated that they have increased their selling prices. This also followed by the construction sector (41.5%) and the manufacturing sector (39.5%).

Below guest of honours are highly welcomed:

- kc
- otb
- soojinhou
- Koon
- Tan KW
- IntelligentInvestor
- Yistock

....

remember you can only recommend one stock...the ultimate choice

i am still learning...unfortunately at an age...where i seem to forget more than i accumulate...:(

i am waiting to reach full time capital requirement (advised by Icon8888) before i can recommend..

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > Apr 7, 2019 5:19 PM | Report Abuse

Okay you want to join or not unker? hahaha

overseas market seems to have advantage over bursa...so its no longer apple to apple...and we cant find much participant...

as a young energetic millenial, i suggest you create a blog to keep track of these sifus..

raider on his sape...
philip on gkent
qqq3 on jackass
etc...

this way we can find cream of the creams in i3...those with real balls

not like calvintan and 3iii

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > Apr 7, 2019 5:14 PM | Report Abuse

probability let's create a blog... of all the stock picks of all the sifus! What are the rules? want to include overseas market or not? Wakakaka

dont over publicize a treasure like him (sjh)...after that everything he recommend will shoot up like crazy one....

now you had disturbed a sleeping silent giant...:(

you guys should really enter stock pick competition to prove yourself instead of talking rubbish liao...

just inject you all with estroegen...sausage become meat balls liao


Posted by probability > Apr 5, 2019 6:16 PM | Report Abuse

these are the list of strong opinionated sifus i can think off:

- raider
- philip
- icon
- qqq3
- kc
- otb
- jon choivo
- 3ii
- purebull
- heaven punter
- soojinhou

Philip...i think you should take out the pic of soojinhou from your profile...

he is a great respectable guy if you had known him long enough

he is using his real name unlike yourself

soojinhou recommended this earlier to me...but missed it :(

i3 full of big sausages now.....

ha ha...dont play play with charlest...

good to have 'hard money' options..easy money comes n goes easily

Icon dont need to use KB ma...he can create it if he wants....he he

by the way - please dont Icon.. we need diversity of choices

your own behaviour has to be consistent with what you expect from others

natural rules in the game of life....equality/fairness....

what you expect others to do is expected from you by other before they can consider your expectations...

even animal kingdom has these unwritten rules:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meiU6TxysCg

Post removed.Why?

yeah..kinda agree on that ...if you teach kids to value shariah law...and jihadism...you can imagine the kind of future the country will have...

but if you teach childrens - openness, creativity, integrity, cooperation, scientific - logical reasoning...

you will have a much brighter country in the future of course

all the above (6 items ) are basic consumption of humans (necessities)...

the supply line is just meeting the demand...but the consumers who create the demand are forced to be blind on quality...as they have no saying/demanding power due to their income perhaps.....

they lack the knowledge to demand quality perhaps...

perhaps its a matter of character we cultivate...

we have europeans who talks about organic food...and asians who dont mind eating a veg colored with a green dye...

why the difference in expectation?
.................................

perhaps it all boils down to the culture we cultivate to the children - the future generation...to accept the kind of life they want and create...

the population had kept increasing to billions...

though the politicians and media claim it is a much ''developed' society.... the fraction of people in % having happy contented life may not be more than how it was 100 years ago (excluding war effects)

measuring quality is a very difficult task....like you said its complex...

now days every single thing in life has deteriorated in quality...

- the chicken , veg, fruits you eat..
- the house you stay..
- the car you drive
- the teachers
- the friends..
- the relationship with family, spouse, kids etc..

if you look carefully , all of them had increased in terms of QUANTITY...

(especially the first 5, look at the number of friends you have via FB and whatsapp, and number of teachers, houses and food choices)....

but decreased in terms of quality
...................................

oil could be heading to 100 usd/brl now.....


and wait till you see IMO 2020

I THINK THIS IS SOMETHING VERY DIFFICULT TO GET IN A CAPITALIST SOCIETY!

.................

punter..as a millenial...i am surprised you could come up with such a beautiful article...

the above statement is very true...and there is a fundamental reason to the above phenomenon.....its simply due to:

multilayered organization structure
.............................

the top managements sets KPI to middle management and the mid management to the engineers...these KPIs (key performance indicators)...naturally does not cultivate quality....as the results of quality cannot be realized - measured or proven within a short time frame unlike cost cuttings & rise in productivity (production qty)..


its something like quantitative vs qualitative valuation

its like Jon vs Philip or the Ex-Investment Banker i would say (for a crude analogy)...he he

i personally think they should give some stakes sharing to PH government...as they complain too much liao.....

Posted by Primeinvestor > Apr 5, 2019 9:59 PM | Report Abuse

it is rumoured to be someone close to mokzaini previously, this round, could be the same, the previous round saw MYEG ramped up from 1.30 to 1.80, this time? RM2 is coming!

Wong Thean Soon has 1287 Million shares after the reduction of 75 Million shares...at almost 30% shareholding. Norasseah has another 28%...

cannot give chance to others to hold Myeg share meh? You are not worried people accuse them of monopolizing stakes in Myeg meh?

you think he no need to diversify his stakes meh? only you can? did you go all in on Myeg?

from where TS Wong going to find more money to buyback 75M shares like the new buyer? Did he not spend 100 over millions buying back the shares from market...

you think the retailers pushed up the shares further from the transaction price of 1.38 to 1.53 ?

u think retailers did that again after the news broke on monopoly position?

Posted by chamlo > Apr 6, 2019 4:20 PM | Report Abuse

If TP higher why TS Wong not buying?

i think oil price will easily shoot back to 76 or 80 USD/brl again...

the previous build up of oil from Saudi due to Iran sanction anticipation end of last year 2018 would have probably depleted to normal level...

Monday is time to whack hibiscus whole-heartedly....

wei..dont delete this post of Jon...

Posted by Choivo Capital > Apr 6, 2019 3:45 PM | Report Abuse

You're being overly simplistic in your analysis of a highly complex business, in an industry with multiple feedbacks.

Do you remember hengyuan, masteel etc.

How precise your predictions are and how incredible wrong they were?

https://www.forbes.com/asia200/list/#header:country_country:Malaysia

Myeg and serba and dayang may be the only companies still there in 2019

https://www.forbes.com/asia200/list/#header:country_country:Malaysia

serba is in the list for 2018

2019 will be Dayang (It was on the list in 2014)

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2019/04/06/dr-m-upset-over-withdrawal-from-rome-statute/

i did not see the news above earlier...fair comments from Dr.M

https://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/government-bond-yield

3.8% bond yield..meaning money should flood the capital market?

superpower does not ratify...it has little consequence to them...

but in Malaysia..you actually lose trust between different communities...

thats a huge damage done to the country
......................................

in any working / business environment (i.e the country)....to prosper.....trust is more important than intelligence or hard work...

once you lose this - no cosmetics can help

Another valuation method is using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF). Based on past 3 years records on average cash flow generation of 294 mil, let's assume the average cash generated per year in future is 250 million (~10-20% discount), the discounted cash flow per share per year is about 26 sen.

...........................

Using above data from David, which takes the average of last 3 years (under depressed market condition), i think we can use PE 10.....to derive TP of 2.60.

reason being i see its depreciation need and maintenance capex would be almost nil going forward.... its assets which are not utilized can be disposed to generate cash....

i hope so raider...but even this if our govn cant express due to fear..i find it ridiculous....anyway... hope for the best

for fear of losing votes? common...so we admit then ...we are ruled by the bullies (rulers, and people with selfish agenda - bullies by the sheer number)

keep doing this...one day this population you cultivate this way can easily be vanished by economic decision by the economic superpowers....

it wont be difficult for you (malaysia) to end like Iran or Venezuela....Brunei is already testing the surface...

i was shocked to hear this news...my close friend (PhD scientist) just decided to migrate to canada last week..

fxxk off malaysia..

you cant even uphold basic human rights.