No kung-fu tricks here, buddy, I just say it as I see it. If I'm wrong I'm the first to admit I got it wrong.
I've been pleased with the current uptrend that I suggested could happen in my first post two weeks ago on this thread.

Let's see what it does from here.

It was a bit of a weird day yesterday, not just for Tenaga. I was expecting the KLCI to spend most of the day trying to hold the 1,580 support level and had never expected it to be sitting around 1,595 for most of the day with an eventual close at 1,602.

As well as Tenaga, a few other sectors were moving up and I can only assume that some of the Funds were making moves on preferred stocks/sectors as it was the start of a new quarter. The one thing that was a minor concern though was the very low volumes going through the overall market, with the DATV at a meagre Rm2.16 billion.

Let's see what next week brings.

The more astute may perhaps call it consolidation.
There has been a nice and gradual rise of around 10% over the past two weeks, with each level being soaked up and consolidating.

Looks fine to me.

@Boyour, I suggest you do some reading and fact checking before you start posting a steaming pile of horse dung on the thread.

Have a great day.

If it wasn't for the first 2 weeks of March having extra volume in crude oil and palm oil stocks due to the Ukraine conflict, the DATV for March would be dismal.

The average DATV for the last 9 trading days of March comes in at 2.33 billion.

I thought I'd share some info during my lunch break.......working this week.....ggrrrrrrr.

It seems there has been a bit of late reporting to Bursa with Tenaga shorts. (naughty boys, get on Mabel's lap for a spanking).
I suspect the covering was done during QWH a couple of weeks ago, as recent volume doesn't match the covering volume. Total one day cover.......cough, cough.......was 5,540,300.
This brings the last 8 trading days short covering down from 19,850,088 to the current 11,049,180.

Anyway, back to my stale bread and water for lunch then another afternoon of work.

@unicornbird, I can only give an opinion, so I'm definitely not saying that I am correct.

For the 4 days prior to the move upwards volume was very light, ranging from 292k to 594k. On the day prior to the move the volume was only 292k.
With no news released on the first day of the 3 day rise, the price went from 6.20 to 6.42 and volume increased almost ten fold to 2.74 million.
My personal thoughts are that it was orchestrated, planned by an IB or Fund(s)

Coincidently.......(cough.... cough) two IB's released positive reports on Bursa on day two of the rise, the price went from 6.42 to 6.90 with volume of 5.8 million.

My thoughts are that this was a well planned push to squeeze the shorts who had shorted between 6.20 and 6.80.
Short figures confirm that Bursa shorts have dropped from ~8 million to 5 million during this run, so a net covering of 3 million shorts. It appears that the plan worked........that's if there was a plan and I might be dreaming all of this :)

On the other side of the coin, if it was merely an oversold and value play, I am sure that Funds would be controlling the upward price so that they could accumulate the stock at various levels. Clearly that didn't happen.

Just my thoughts.

lol @lionel messi, hardly a guru, just merely giving figures that are readily available for those who care to take the time to read and analyse them.

Nothing I can see indicates why a large cap company can rise 10%+ in three days of trading without any significant news. This is expected in the low capped end of the market but not a company with a Rm5.6 Billion market cap.

But the price doesn't lie, so if people are comfortable buying at these levels then so be it.

Good morning @Thirai Thiraviam, if I could just pick you up on a few comments you made.

You said "(Before May 2018, Bursa's EPS was consistently well above 7.25 cents"

Your statement is correct, however, in April 2018 Bursa issued a 1:2 Bonus Rights Issue, hence the lower EPS from 2018 onwards.

You said...."Given how excited the market is at the prospect of the BN regime returning to power"

I have certainly not seen any signs of that. I also do not concur with your sentiment.

DATV has increased this month, however much of that was in the first two weeks of the month and I'd suggest that was caused by large daily volumes in crude oil and palm oil stocks, clearly due to the price rise of those commodities due to the Ukraine invasion. In the past week or so, daily DATV have been slipping back to as low as Rm2.1 levels since that early exuberance has waned.

For the current quarter, month on month DATV has increased, albeit from a very low base in January of just a touch over Rm2 billion. Month to date DATV is currently Rm3.2 billion, with four more trading days to go, so there shouldn't be too much of a change to that figure by month's end.

Keep in mind, Bursa required a DATV for March of Rm3 billion to merely match the last quarter's low DATV figures.

It would be fair to say that the market is not "booming" in total value transactions, in my opinion.

Not enough volume going through so far today to make any impact on the price. Healthy consolidation though from the low of 2.85 on Wednesday.

I arrived a little late to the party, only taking a position on Wednesday at 2.87. I had hoped to buy between 2.75 and 2.80 but took my eye off the ball due to positioning myself in a few other stocks. My 2.87 buy was mainly due to chart technicals which were showing some mild signs of an upward trend. Yesterday's trading seems to have perhaps confirmed the upward trend.

Technicals are still looking positive, however there is that "psychological barrier" at Rm3 but increasing volume should eventually break down that barrier. For today (Friday) it would be a positive for the stock to see 9.5 million+ volume for this current upward trend to gain a bit of momentum.

Thanks @danchong, appreciate it. It's early days but this should deliver over time., imo.
I certainly hope so !! :)

No problem, @moneySIFU
Let's hope it delivers a reasonable profit for both of us over time.

All the best....and thanks for the "thanks" :)

Keep it nice and slow and steady please.
Clean out and suck up all the sells at each level going upwards.

I hope so, @prudentinvestor but if it doesn't I still feel quite comfortable with it for the remainder of the year.
I prefer the view in the Rm6 area :)

From yesterday's volume of 1.9 million it has ticked up nicely to 3.97 million today, with a slight uptick in price.

@tksw, is that a little smile on your face today.........or just wind :)

SunTzu007, your theory unfortunately would have been blown out of the water with the recent 30 cent dividend in Maybank. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, just depends on market and sector sentiment at the time.

Granted, if Tenaga was going to be paying a special dividend like this time last year of 58 cents total, it would succumb to the "Ex factor". It still might lose the 18 cents this time too but I'd suggest it's a bit too difficult to pick at the moment.

Shorts may use that opportunity tp cover at that time, I'd suggest nobody knows, especially we lame retailers.

LM, I think you might be confused, as I didn't short Tenaga on Friday. My last week's Wednesday BUY was merely to join in the QWH games at Friday's close.
I haven't changed my investment holding in Tenaga, apart from adding a very small amount on Wednesday last week.

As for your offer of decent girls, I've enough of them.........need to add some indecent ones :)

I think there will still be opportunities to accumulate sub Rm6 in the short term, but that should be used as an opportunity to buy and hold for the remainder of the year, IMO.
With a 25 cents dividend already in the offering with the timeline yet to be announced (possibly May/June Ex date), plus also another dividend later in the year, this offers a robust dividend yield.

My targets for this year, share price of Rm6.50+, with two dividends, one of 25 cents (announced) and possibly a ~15 cents dividend later in the year (October.....same as last year).

lol @lionel messi, send me a brown paper bag full of Rh100 notes and you'll get your answer :)

Too early to know if this is the start of more short covering, but at least it's nice to see the momentum change.
Technically I'm looking for a break and close above 9.35 at some stage and if that occurs then perhaps a move to test 9.51.

The Funds may have other ideas....who knows? :)

There has been a bit of a change in momentum with the shorts in recent days. So far this week, no new shorts on Monday and Tuesday was only 157,600 added.
The total amount of shorts covered on Friday (last week) and Monday (this week) for the two days totalled 4,054,508.

@tksw, I don't see anything wrong with that at this point in time. All trades today have gone through at 56 and 56.5, with a steady increase in day on day volume.
The last three days volume has increased from 675K to 1.05 million to 1.9 million today, closing at 56.5.

Seems to me to be a nice steady consolidation pattern after the initial drop to 52.5. As always, time will tell if it goes in the direction we want it to go :)

I REALLY hope you are right, LM.
My thoughts are that Russia will want to bring the Capital to its knees. As for "softer tones" emerging soon, with what is currently going on in Mariupol, don't be surprised to see the rhetoric of genocide being mentioned soon.

LM, on your comment about a ceasefire in Ukraine, I wouldn't be holding my breath for that to happen anytime soon.

An excerpt from a very recent BBC report.............

“Hell on Earth”. That’s how Yaroslav Zhelezniak, a Ukrainian MP from Mariupol, described the situation in his native city. And it really is desperate.

Mariupol has been surrounded by Russian forces, which have prevented the creation of corridors to allow the distribution of humanitarian aid.

Around 300,000 residents are trapped inside, with no electricity, running water or heating. And as food and medical supplies run low, the crisis could get worse, with people going hungry and diseases spreading.

A few weeks ago I decided to search for a small/mid cap stock that had potential for growth throughout 2022/23 . Generally my investment style is fairly conservative (blue chip/high caps with capital growth potential and paying a reasonable dividend) and by the last quarter of 2021 I had taken positions in stocks that I believed were suitable to hold during 2022. Missing from that list were a few small caps with the potential to outperform over a 12 month+ period. Which leads me to Perak Transit.

It would be fair to say that Perak Transit is not a sexy counter in a sexy sector. I doubt that you will ever see pump and dump crews entering this over a sustained period, if ever, which suits me. But what it does seem to offer is a company with decent foundations and fundamentals and a business growth plan.

Current basic fundamentals:
12 month EPS of 8.38 cents.
P/E (at 60 cents price) of 7.15.
P/B Ratio 0.70
Current Quarterly Dividend (at 60 cents) = 1.33%
Current Annual Dividend (at 60 cents) = 5.33%
*(above values using 60 cents as share price, current share price 55/56 cents).

While researching this company it was encouraging to see the company detailing their business plan and growth expectations. There are numerous short term and longer term growth initiatives that should lead to eventually higher share prices over time. These are covered in more detail in a couple of articles that have been released recently, I'll add the links at the bottom of this post.

Technicals/ Chart:
From around mid January up to Feb.22nd it had been generally moving around the 60 to 63 cents area. On the release of the quarterly and subsequent Ukraine/Russia conflict escalating, the price eventually dropped with many other small caps to a closing low of 52.5 on March 8. Since then it has slowly recovered to its current price of 55/56 cents. Indicators are currently showing a return to the 60 to 62 cents area. Coincidently, if you look at the 12 month chart you can see a similar pattern in August 2021. Targets and support levels can generally be a mystery in volatile market conditions as we are currently experiencing, however a return to the 60-62 area eventually seems likely, with any increases in revenue and profit to push it further with time.

I've just realised this post is looking like an infomercial...lol....it wasn't intended, however I wanted to pass on some of the reasons I decided to take a position in Perak Transit. I believe there is a growth story here, backed by good fundamentals, so if you are looking for a small/mid cap investment then you may want to take a look at PTrans. Keep in mind, this is not the type of business that will be featured by the pump crews. Treat this more as a mid to longer term investment with an attached credible dividend percentage return.

A couple of recent articles that are worth a read:
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/hleresearch/2022-03-11-story-h1600186916-Technical_Tracker_PTRANS_An_Overlooked_Recovery_Proxy

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/PublicInvest/2022-02-23-story-h1599259360-Perak_Transit_Within_Expectations

lol @lionel messi ........I'm definitely not a guru, sifu, etc. :)

"How do I position for a ceasefire? "

Bend over, touch your toes........and wait for the impact :)

@my101home , it has been mentioned in a couple of IB write ups over the past two weeks. Obviously it is only their opinion, based on the return of costs throughout the year of the higher input (fuel) costs incurred.

It's way too early to be talking about Rm12 targets, IMO. Generally after a "QWH event" the price will re adjust to its previous pre event price. Tenaga has had Funds playing both sides of the ledger (long and short) for quite some time and I don't expect that to stop anytime soon.

Something I should have mentioned yesterday in my last post was the reason why I selected a bank (RHB) and Tenaga as my plays for this QWH. Most (all?) IB's and Funds are bullish on banks for the remainder of the year due to potential interest rate hikes, so my thoughts were that they could possibly be part of a rebalancing scenario. Similar thoughts for Tenaga, as increasing consumption and higher revenues due to tariff increases from all non residential customers for the remainder of the year should increase their bottom line and there has already been murmurs that a Special Dividend may be given later in the year.

Just my thoughts, definitely not saying that I'm right but I'll remain long in Tenaga and RHB.

"Truth be told, QWH won't benefit the same counters everytime."

Exactly right, LM. Anyone who tells you that they knew Tenaga was going to close at 9.42 is telling stories from Alice in Wonderland.

Let me explain what I did in the lead up to yesterday's QWH. I had monitored 3 stocks, Tenaga, RHB and Maybank and eventually took positions in two, Tenaga and RHB.
Using Tenaga as the example, I bought on Wednesday at 9.02 with the intention of getting out on the closing auction on Friday. Come auction time I placed my sell and HOPED it would close higher than the closing price pre aiction. On the other side of the ledger I placed a buy at 8.90, so that if there was a big drop at the auction period I may have been hit and picked up stock at 8.90 or lower, with a HOPE to sell it higher on Monday.

It's not rocket science, it's merely attempting to pick up some beer money from an opportunity. My normal investing style is long term hold but if there is an opportunity for a quick gain, then why not take it.

LOL @lionel messi.......you are a bad man :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plZRe1kPWZw

As to your question, no not the same.

Good morning LM, yes, very good volume and value traded yesterday.......you know what I'm going to say next, don't you? :)

Yes.....the volumes and values of blue chips were elevated due to the QWH. If only we could have that event on a daily basis :)

I would doubt if the games being played by some Funds are over yet. Although, one fact that has surprised me this morning was the small number of shorts yesterday in Tenaga, only a total of 110,800 shares shorted yesterday. With volume of almost 40 million traded in the closing auction at 9.42 I would have expected a higher number of shorts, especially at that price.

What will be interesting to see is if any short covering was done yesterday, but we wont get that figure from the Bursa website until next Tuesday morning. In the last few weeks Tenaga has been quite heavily shorted, so I'm hoping some of that was covered yesterday. Time will tell.

lol @shareprofit, that's a vivid imagination you have going there :)

azmie67, correct.
Nobody has any idea what price it will close at, so you have to be conservative and hope it closes higher than your placed sell. Quite simple actually.
A note of caution, it doesn't always work as well as today, so you have to be able to hold the stock (pay) and either keep it or sell it on Monday.

I also tried RHB but didn't work, Thought it might close over Rm6 but no luck. No worries though as I'm happy to hold RHB long term.

It's a deal, LM :)

oogo90, means Quadruple Witching Hour........when funds rebalance their portfolios, so sometimes caises big swings in the after market auction.

Example, Tenaga did around 40 million shares in the closing auction................and some people made a bit of beer money :)

Today is QWH, so be prepared for some hanky panky in the blue chips during the after market auction.

Anything can go anywhere, up or down, in the five minute frenzy...............or it could have all the excitement of a damp firecracker, it's all up to the Funds.

A short and sweet visit to RHB Rm6 Land this afternoon. A much nicer place than Rm5 Land..........scenes of gorgeous ladies lounging by the pool sipping Pina Colada's, lobster and king prawns being lightly char grilled on the barbecue, everyone smiling and laughing.......

I hope to revisit it very soon, on a very permanent basis :)

yes, prudentinvestor. The amount has been announced but no timeline dates yet.

Whether that announcement either comes before or after RHB breaks Rm6 is yet to be seen. My gut feeling is it will break above Rm6 in the not too distant future, as banks are currently buoyant in this jittery overall market. Follow up that Rm6 break with the dividend timelines, then life's good :)

I don't know if it will "fly" in the near term, but I'd like to see it break the 5.85 price point. Next technical point after 5.85 is 5.97.

Not too sure how and when it will break the Rm6 level but I still retain my 6.50 target for sometime this year.

Kinetics , let's get the facts right.

The government subsidises the residential customers, not Tenaga, to assist in the extra fuel costs. Industrial and commercial customers, who make up around 70% of electricity use have had their prices increased from Februay1st 2022 to make up the "shortfall" due to higher input costs.

LM, I'm assuming that you're not referring to Quality Whore Humping.

As for the other QWH, yes this Friday is the first for the year.

It keeps banging its head against the 5.85 Fib. point for the past 4 days. Something has to eventually give, to either the upside or downside.

I certainly didn't see this 6.20 to 6.80 run up over 2 days, LM.
Well done if you got in at the low. Strange how it started to rise yesterday when the market was a bit subdued and the previous day's DATV was at the lowest for the month.

Whoever ran it up deserves an applause :)

I've done a quick Google search to give you a better idea of the DB system. See below.

https://sdk.finance/what-is-digital-banking/

Choongling , it has nothing to do with crypto currency.

The easiest way to explain it is by comparing with online banking. With online accounts you are limited to the features you can access. Digital banking encompasses everything you can do at a bank's branch, through an online account.

Dividend timeline announcement out:

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/announcements/view/3518489

killdavid, no. The dividend amount has already been announced in the last quarterly.

Either today or tomorrow Tenaga should be announcing their dividend timelines.

Ex date should be around the end of this month, with payment in mid April.