stkoay, that seems an odd thing to say, as I see no reason at all to sell any of my banking stocks at this point in time. In fact, quite the opposite.

I agree and I doubt if they will offer it as a special dividend, that would make no sense.

Perhaps they will hold it in a special account and wait until the price hits @DicckMe's target of 4.50, then give a bumper dividend......lol

I agree,newguy0801.
It's certainly better than having to pay it. I thought that would be obvious to anyone with a pulse.

Ladies, although I'm quite partial to enjoying girls stripping down to their bra and panties for a wrestling match, this is probably not the ideal venue or time for your event.

Can you take your tiff into a private room.....you might be able to sell tickets for it :)

It's not good news?

Tenaga have retained almost Rm2 Billion that would have otherwise been handed over to the IEB and it's not good news?

If paying it was going to be bad news, then why is retaining it not good news?

Let me remind you what you said last year at this time about this point.....

Jan 29, 2021 6:57 PM | Report Abuse

next week will limits down as tnb court case is on 16 Feb. Sell before too late.


Very negative posts on Tenaga this time last year too from you....calls of "limit down', "going to Rm6", "inside information I can't speak about". Countless posts about Tenaga and no other stock during January and February 2021, So what's the agenda, dude?

Trot along, there's a good little fella.

.....or a marriage :)

That's correct, Candi.

Make sure you bring the ladies :)

Hi LM, message sent.
Go to the top of the page and click the number icon next to your log on name. A separate page will open......using laptop.

LM....will take a look later this morning when I free up some time. Check your i3 Messenger for my reply.

Cheers.

An extract from a post I made on Saturday.........

"So the question now is, will Najib have enough influence to get the Cabinet to change their mind of their initial Tenaga decision regarding business power cost increases? We were told this current decision took long discussions between the Minister's department and Tenaga, then 6 (yes, six!!) cabinet meetings to finally agree to this new pricing plan. If those are the facts then it would be a VERY weak Cabinet to now turn around and change their decision merely on the word of someone who is far more intent in playing the regular PR cards."


It's now Monday morning and so far Najib's opinion has had no traction in the media or any comments from the Cabinet. It's perhaps too early to say his comment has been thrown under the bus but let's hope it has been.

Logically the government need Tenaga in a robust position to carry out all the mandatory RE requirements for their 2025 RE emissions targets, so chopping and changing business plans should never be an option, IMO.

I trust they put Najib's "opinion" where it rightly belongs, at the bottom of the garbage bin.

Let Tenaga get on with some serious business development for the benefit of the country.

Wow, 3 followers, the pressure is on now :)
I'll have to start ordering merchandise.....t shirts, mugs, caps, pens.....and perhaps something special for the ladies....lol

Joking aside,. thanks for the support, guys. *thumbs up*

lol @LM.......once I start, I don't know when to finish :)

Usually I feel that I'm wasting my time with posts like the one above, as most i3 forum readers would prefer to hear "limit up" or "going to the moon, lah". Unfortunately I say it as I see it and that doesn't please a lot of people :)

Candi, I'm assuming you have a cash upfront account with someone like Rakuten, right?

If so, then you can participate in any DRP for any company you own shares in. You will get a message from them asking whether you want to join the DRP or take the full cash dividend.

LM, you said...."sell cum div and wait to buy back ex at much lower price".

I agree and to me seems the most logical outcome.

If we were to assume that February's ADVT was similar to January's, and perhaps even marginally higher, then it would mean that March would have to have a regular ADVT of around Rm3.5 Billion just to match the previous quarter's figures. Almost a 75% daily increase throughout the month of March.

We would require something dramatic to happen to the upside of our market in March for that to enfold. Right now I am really not seeing that as an option.

This stock appears to be doing exactly what was expected since the quarterly and dividend announcement last Friday (28th). The expected dividend chase started on the half day Monday trading and got into full swing when the market reopened on Thursday. Prior to the dividend announcement it was trading around 6.18, so with the dividend bait of 17 cents it seemed logical that the price would at least rise to 6.35, which coincidently was a major Fib point on the way down. As with most dividend chases the price generally overshoots the runway, with an intraday high on Thursday of 6.49. Coincidently 6.49 is also the point of the current upper Bollinger Band.

I would be very surprised if it was to break that 6.49 price point before it goes Ex Dividend on the 17th of February.....although stranger things have happened :)

Post Ex Dividend I can only see one direction for Bursa as there is too much "weight" to push it down, that being:

1. The 17 cents drop on Ex Div day.
2. The current low ADTV, January had an average ADTV of just over Rm2 Billion.
3. Early February signs that the ADVT is not rising. Example, Thursday's market was robust and had a good upward move but the ADVT for that day was only Rm1,624 Billion. Not a great start to the month.

Just my thoughts.

Thursday was a very good day technically for Tenaga, as it finally broke through the 9.15 resistance point and hit a daily high of 9.23 and closed at 9.22 on increased volume. I had mentioned in a post last weekend that it seemed the likely scenario and was pleased that it had started its move. I missed all the action as I had a "hot date" with a wall, a scrubbing brush and buckets of soapy water....what joy :)

As for Friday morning everything was still going to plan as the overall market was in negative territory and Tenaga tested the previous resistance (9.15) as a new support. It played the game perfectly by trading between 9.16 and 9.20 for the majority of the morning session.

So where did it go wrong? Well, in my opinion, this......https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2022/02/04/implement-power-tariff-hike-in-stages-says-najib/

The date stamp of the article is 2.14pm on Friday.

Yet again the convicted criminal and "expert of everything" had to stick his nose into yet another story to remain relevant and show how much he cares for Malaysian businesses. Yet another tick for his PR team.

Perhaps it was merely a coincidence that the price fell below the support level after the midday break? I doubt it.

Lim GE also came out with a statement on Tenaga around the same time but I doubt that would have had much effect on its own, as he has not got hand on the steering wheel of government. The perception at least is that the other character does have the ear of the PM. All IMO of course.

So the question now is, will Najib have enough influence to get the Cabinet to change their mind of their initial Tenaga decision regarding business power cost increases? We were told this current decision took long discussions between the Minister's department and Tenaga, then 6 (yes, six!!) cabinet meetings to finally agree to this new pricing plan. If those are the facts then it would be a VERY weak Cabinet to now turn around and change their decision merely on the word of someone who is far more intent in playing the regular PR cards.

I have no political bias in either direction, in fact I despise the majority of politicians, so please don;t think this is a political post.

It's about time someone finally had the balls to make a definitive decision on many topics and put the plans firmly in place. This country can no longer afford to pander to the whims of those with other motives.

I hope and believe the current pricing model remains for Tenaga. If it doesn't, then yet again this would have been a total failure in forward planning by the government cabinet, all IMO of course.

Cheers and have a great weekend

@okdoke, thanks for taking the time to acknowledge and also for the greetings.

I wish you a very Happy New Year and let's hope that this new year gives a bit more joy and prosperity than the recent ones.

Best wishes to everyone else who takes the time and effort to post sensible and informative comments in i3 :)

Today's half day closing volume: 1,823,500.

Last Friday: 1,105,100
Last Thursday: 1,579,000
Last Wednesday: 1,641,200

Hi ali baba, also keep in mind the 2 cent rebate is paid for by the government....."...the government had allocated RM715 million from the Electricity Industry Fund to cover the cost of the full rebate and surcharge for all domestic consumers."

An interesting uptick in volume this morning. By 11.30am it had passed Friday's full day volume and with around 30 minutes to go it's honing in on Wednesday and Thursday's full day volume.

Relevant? Maybe yes, maybe no. Let's see how it goes after the CNY break.

Overnight the US markets were all over the place like a mad woman's custard, ending up with the Dow +1.65% and the S&P +2.43% ( !!!).

The volatility each day this week has been mental, with up to 1,000 point swings in a day on the Dow.

Meanwhile down in the backwaters of Malaysia the Friday KLCI close of 1,520 appears to have been well engineered, placing the market in no man's land, or a mid point between where it could either fall from or rise from.

Which in a roundabout way brings me to Tenaga. With the current market sentiment (read above) this has left Tenaga range bound from 9.03 to a brief foray to 9.15 on Monday and Friday this week. The tighter range is mainly 9.06 to 9.10.

Volume has gradually weakened throughout the past week, so eventually something has to give to either the upside or downside. If I had a gun pointed at my head, then I'd say that the 9.15 resistance will possibly break out not too long after the CNY break. The elephant in the room remains to be EPF and what they decide to do regarding the volume of sells they want to place. They have had plenty opportunities to push it below 9.00 but that appears not to be their current MO.

Immediate targets if it was to break 9.15 are 9.35 and 9.51.

On average, daily values have steadily dropped since the "moratorium hot money" left the market and the slide has continued. Yes, less volumes from sectors like gloves/tech have also added to the decline, however the overall market buying strength has also declined.

Put the negatives all together and this is where we are.

I've been playing around with some numbers after yesterday's news.

In the most simplistic terms, Bursa will need to raise the next two months daily average values of this current quarter to around Rm2.8 Billion to Rm3 billion to match the 8 cents EPS announced yesterday.

So, the next two months daily values have to rise around 40% to 50% from current daily values. A tough gig.

I'd doubt if the shorters will be letting this fish off the hook to easily for now. The divi munchers may perhaps help keep the price buoyant up to the Ex. Date on the 17th February.

Maybe both.......if we're lucky? :)

No price change yet........but why is this song playing inside my head... :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkADj0TPrJA

Probably marginally worse than I thought across the headline figures.

EPS of 8 cents, my guesstimate was clearly below 9 cents with around 8.5 as a pin the tail on a donkey figure.

Dividend of 17 cents, my estimate was 20 to low 20's.

Not inspiring numbers with the potential of the next quarter being lower unless something dramatic happens in the overall market.

No early signs of that, though.

Quarterly just out......EPS 8 cents per share with a QonQ drop in profit of 18.7%.

Now to read the detailed report.

You're learning :)

lol @lionel messi, in this current market the only hope anyone can have is "guessing" what will happen in the short term. That's where technicals assist to gauge the mood.

Anyone who says right now, "this is what is going to happen" is either deluded or a fool :)

We've seen quite a few of them in the Bursa stock over the last 6 months, haven't we....lol We both know how that ended :)

@okdoke, that's a tough call.....it might be easier to ask me about the meaning of life :)
Global markets have been so volatile recently, especially this week, that it's created a very undecided market locally. An example,if you have followed the Dow or the S%P intraday movements everyday this week you will see huge swings as big as 600 or 1,000 points on the Dow each day. These are clearly huge intraday swings.

With that in mind, picking a price for a "blue chip" on the local market becomes a bit of a guess due to local sentiment, IMO. Add to that we are about to close our market next week for 2.5 days for CNY, where anything could happen globally while we are closed. So when we reopen it might be either solidly up or down as we play catch up.

So you can see where my head is regarding price predictions.....totally confused and undecided, lol.

With Tenaga, I have had a daily bid in at 9.02 since the beginning of January and never been hit, closest I got was when it hit 9.03. That bid was purely on a technical point of view. Clearly I was wrong as I haven't been hit but I'm not too fussed yet as I already hold. For me, the 9.02 to 9.08 price points were the area to currently buy if you MUST buy right now.

Technically, Tenaga is going nowhere (IMO) until it can clearly break 9.15 and close above that price point.

In recent days the price has moved intraday to 9.13 but I'm not sure if that might be EPF creating an interest so that they can sell into the rise. Volumes currently between 9.02 and 9.08 are very low, so it might be them tickling it to build up volume....who knows.

That's about the best guess I can give for now.....cheers.

Yeah, agree LM. Some of the total daily transaction values going through so far this month have been poor.
Hard to imagine that picking up anytime soon, unless we are about to enter a bull market......and I don't see that on the cards :)

You'd have to forecast this current quarter which we are in to be even less than the upcoming quarterly report for Oct -Dec 2021. This is just the first month of the new quarter but the signs are currently weak.

Ummmm....did I mention that 6 months ago? :)

AmInvest have thrown their hat into the ring with their estimates for the upcoming Quarterly on Friday, with an EPS target of 8.77 cents.

Some key points from their estimates:

Bursa is scheduled to release its 4Q21 results on 28 Jan 2022. We expect a weaker 4Q21 earnings (-11.4% QoQ) of RM71mil due to lower DATV for securities market. This is expected to lead to a full FY21 net profit of RM361mil (-4.5% YoY).

In 4Q21, DATV (of on-market transactions) for equities declined to RM2.5bil vs. 3Q21 and 2Q21’s RM2.9bil and RM3.8bil respectively. On a monthly basis, Oct, Nov and Dec 2021 saw lower DATV of RM2.9bil, RM2.8bil and RM1.9bil respectively.

In FY21, DATV for the securities market for the full year came in at RM3.5bil, slightly lower than our estimate of RM3.7bil. This was contributed by weaker trading activities in 4Q21. FY21 saw a 15.8% YoY drop in DATV from RM4.2bil in FY20.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/61754.jsp

The three current EPS projections for the quarter I've seen are:

CIMB 6.2 cents
HLG: 8.4 cents
AmInvest: 8.7 cents

Something doesn't quite add up here.

At some time during the early last quarter of 2021 KPower were touting that they had an order book of Rm1.9 Billion. This figure was also quoted in an IB report on the company (can't recall who) around October too, citing "talking to management" on the company's prospects going forward.

At the time of reading that IB report I was dubious about their projections as I thought the report had more holes that Swiss cheese.

Anyway, I gave the report the benefit of the doubt and decided to look further into the Kpower website. Under "Key Milestones" on their site the order book value was only up to 2020, with a value of Rm1.2 Billion.
I thought that was odd, if I was the CEO I'd be shouting from the rooftops that we had an order book of Rm1.9 Billion.

I checked the website every few weeks to see if the figures had been updated but always found the same information.

Today I decided to look again under the "Key Milestones" section and to my surprise it had been updated, with mentions of Mr. Karim resigning and ceasing to be a substantial shareholder. The order book value was also updated.

The Rm1.9 Billion which was touted towards the end of 2021 is now quoted by the company to be Rm1.158 Billion. Approximately Rm750 Million lower than what has been told to the market late last year and also quoted from the company in the IB report.

Odd.

https://www.kpower.com.my/key-milestones

We seem to have a similar "hobby", LM. It's much better than collecting stamps :)

US overnight markets still volatile and we remain directionless. We will know by this time tomorrow what action the Fed has taken regarding interest rates so until then I'll just sit back and watch the punters chase their dreams on the Malaysian market.

Current sentiment, not selling or buying.

Mr.calvintaneng.....if I may make a suggestion...

I suggest that you create a table with all the palm oil stocks you have recommended and put in their closing prices as of December 31, 2021, then run their prices into the table at the end of the reporting season.

This will give a clear and transparent picture as to whether your price predictions are correct.

This may put to an end these daily skirmishes that seem to be endless. Do you think that would be feasible?

Frankly, the daily promotions and subsequent arguments have became very tiresome.

How soon, DickyMe.....next week, next month, next millennium?

Effin' eejit.

I think you might mean "nibble"............don't mention nipple too often as I might become too distracted :)

Thanks for the acknowledgement, LM. *thumbs up*

Just keep in mind the current state of global and local markets before you start throwing your cash around. Last night the US market was a perfect example of how volatile the markets are, down 1,000 points at one stage (3%) before ending the day in positive territory.

The Fed are currently meeting this week with a statement after the market closes on Wednesday night US time, so expect interest rates to be the prime talking point. Add to that the Ukraine/ Russia story and the market can and will do anything.

With the KLCI currently at 1,505 there is probably at least a 50% possibility of it testing the 1,490/ 1,495 area on a bit of negative news.

Perhaps if you are thinking of buying, then just take a percentage of your allocation at these prices and watch for further developments. Not advice, just my personal thoughts in this current environment.

lol limkokthye.

Not a great day but at least you put a smile on my face with your in depth analysis :)

Full article now available.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/maybank-says-allegations-it-will-face-major-financial-trouble-exposure-genting-hong-kong-are

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/maybank-says-allegations-it-will-face-major-financial-trouble-exposure-genting-hong-kong-are

Article to be updated, this is just the headline.

This news about a possible loan default from Genting HK is not what shareholders want to see. I haven't been able to see what the actual size of the loan is for each individual bank yet but it would be significant, although not "fatal".

While this cloud hangs over the three banks we could see Funds come in to short the stocks so I'm expecting some pressure on the price until things are clearer.

It's very frustrating as I was bullish on RHB for this year. For now, I have decided to hold my current holdings in RHB but will not be adding to my position until there is more clarity on the Genting HK situation.

I've been looking at the Bursa chart this morning and clearly it's not very inspiring. Those who follow this thread will know that I've mentioned a Fib. point at Rm5.80 for a few months now and what I noticed was that when I opened the 5 year chart the Lower Bollinger Band is now sitting at 5.80 (5.8024 to be exact).....spooky ~~~~~

This upcoming Friday, the 28th, is when the Quarterly is released so it will be interesting to see how the market reacts to an anticipated lower revenue and net profit report. Perhaps trigger a move down towards 5.80?

There should be a dividend attached to the quarterly, so depending on the size may soften the blow, perhaps only temporarily though.

The KLCI support of 1,520 is getting a bit too close for comfort.
A drop below that point will.......well, you know the rest.

That test of the KLCI 1,530 might be coming sooner than expected.
I can't see today's overall market being very encouraging.

The next 5 possible retracement points based on Fib, calcs:

1. 5.77
2. 5.72
3. 5.65
4. 5.57
5. 5.55

I'd probably be topping up between the 5.57 and 5.65 points if it was to drop into that area. If the KLCI was to head below the 1,530 support then we could look at lower price levels. That's the current state of play with this stock for me. All in my opinion, of course.

I was very surprised and pleased that it closed the week on a Fib. point as support. Although I'm not too sure if it will be able to hold this point throughout this new week, as I'm still uncertain about the short term overall market.

Any signs of price weakness could be an opportunity to buy and hold as a twelve month investment to achieve a capital gain plus a 5%+ dividend.

Who said anything bout FREE, LM? :)
I'm working on my fee structure right now.....lol

Jamietee, I thought the post was fairly clear with the workings (guesstimates).

Do you know what EPS means,....not being cheeky, but I see you are a new poster so might be new to market terms.

Let's see if this forecasted upswing in demand in 2022 translates to higher revenues and profit over the next two or three quarters.

All the Covid related hurdles such as supply chain restraints and increased shipping costs have been very detrimental to their business model. If they have been able to rectify some of those issues and are also expecting an upswing in demand then there might be some hope for the company to improve its balance sheet throughout the year.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/top-condom-maker-karex-sees-2022-demand-topping-prepandemic-levels