I still see a bit more upside leading to the Quarterly in just over two weeks time. Whether the price can be sustained will depend on the performance of the quarter, IMO.

Looking at the 3 prior Quarterlies:

Jan to March Revenue: Rm 1.190B
April to June Revenue: Rm 954 Mill.
July to August Revenue: Rm 989 Mill.

Clearly the effect of the country's first MCO effected revenue for the April to June quarter.
There was a Rm 35 Mill. increase in revenue in the following quarter.

It requires a Rm 11 Mill. increase in revenue in the upcoming quarterly to go back over the Rm 1B level.

If that can be achieves with a net profit equal of greater than the last quarter, then it could provide support and further gains.

There should be an announcement after the Quarterly to advise if they are retaining their 4 cent dividend.

Plenty to watch out for in a few weeks time.

WenJun MACD also shows a bullish crossover, looking good
09/02/2021 5:04 PM
*************************************************************************

Yes, correct, Wen Jun, a positive indicator.
Tonight's news about retail opening up from tomorrow might give Aeon a bit of a knee jerk reaction to the upside.
Personally, I like to see a stock rise nice and steady on solid volume, so I'd be more than happy with just a couple of cents rise tomorrow and some consolidating volume.

Best of luck!!

Closed at 1.02, sitting right on the upper Bollinger Band line at 1.02.
Well done Aeon, a good day's work and volume.

Broken through the upper Bollinger Band on solid volume, all very nice so far.

Thank you very much, Kim Sua, your comments are very much appreciated.

I sometimes wonder if it's worth posting in a free stock market forum as I'm never too sure if any bother to read my views...lol. If anything I say helps even one person then I guess it's a bonus. :)

Currently I'm mainly in watching mode with many stocks as I'm not totally convinced we are out of the woods yet with this Covid dilemma.

Tenaga is one that I've taken a couple of parcels of so far, with the intention of getting 2 or 3 more. Currently just monitoring its price action before buying the remaining balance.

Also monitoring a few banks but I feel they might be still a bit too high.

Clearly Tenaga and the banks are more in line with my longer term portfolio holds. When I see other short term opportunities I'll move in too but tend to be very wary in the current financial climate.

All the best.

Allan,
Should have the Quarterly released, usually in the last week of February, followed by the Annual Report and any dividend payout and Ex date announcement.

So far all going to plan.

labu83, with respect, this is not panic selling. It has been a steady drop down to "fair value" in the current Covid situation. Investors who are buying now are not buying for immediate returns but for a longer term hold, ie., an investment.

Yesterday a poster, Rauschenberg, raised some very good points for discussion and I suggested that I would make some thoughts about them but haven't had enough time for a detailed reply. I did however start last night playing around with some numbers from their previous Quarterly and Annual reports.

What appears clear is that revenue for Financial Year 20 (to end December) will be around 10% less than the previous FY. Net profit will also drop accordingly.

So, by using the 5 year mean average P/E of around 16, you could be looking at "fair Value" anywhere between 9.50 and 9.70, using end of FY20 estimates.

BUT.....and this is an important point to add.......

Is the current price fair value? The numbers say yes on projected FY20 figures. But this price gives no premium to the consideration of power consumption returning to even normal levels. There will have to be a natural ~11% growth in consumption and revenue just to get back to normal consumption and "par value".

As an investor, I'd say 9.50 to 9.70 is good value to enter a utility monopoly. My 12 month valuation on fundamentals with a steady increase in power consumption over that period is around the Rm 11 region.

Any surge (doubtful) in the economy over that period would obviously be a bonus.


Just my thoughts, best of luck to all.

HI Dongbei, in general terms I agree with your comments. I have no doubt that there is a place in our lives for online shopping but in most cases we like to go out and wander and browse. It's just something that we are programmed to do as humans. I even see it more relevant in Asian societies.
As for your comment about people flocking back and packing out places, well I'm a bit less convinced about that, in the short term anyway. The vaccine is definitely a plus but I'm still not convinced it is the silver bullet to get things promptly back to normal .
The economy will still struggle this year as it will take quite a bit of time to repair the damage we have already suffered before we can be positive and go into spending mode. IMO.

I'd be very cautious on the forward projections you read from various government departments, particularly for this year. Again, just my personal thoughts.

I can think of worse places to be stuck, Rauschenberg.
Enjoy :)

So far it seems to be playing out the way we spoke about over the weekend. The Rm1 "psychological barrier" should get over run, then we may have a bit of a traffic jam between 1.00 and 1.04 for a period.
If 1.04 is broken, then I'd be looking at:

TP1: 1.08
TP2: 1.11
TP3: 1.15.

The 1.15 price point might be wishful thinking and may need the upcoming Quarterly to exceed the previous quarter's profit results. The upcoming Quarterly obviously includes the Christmas sales revenue but I'm guessing that won't add much more to revenue because of Covid.

Just my opinions, let's see how it plays out.

I've got no idea why I said January, when we are currently in February!!

I must be living in a time warp. Sorry for any confusion caused.

Ex Date 22 January

HI Rauschenberg, my response might end up being a bit lengthy and I'm stuck for time this afternoon, so I'll leave it to another day. It is a topic worth discussing though, IMO.
Any base price though would be more in line with a price range rather than an actual price point.

Have a great day.
ps. Are you based in Malaysia, if you don't mind me asking?

Good morning, rauschenberg and thank you for a quality post.

Regarding your comment...." The consensus is around 6.5%. In MY book, that is by how much the stock price will rise to.".....I generally agree with you. The only comment I can add to that for a debate is where we decide on an actual "starting price" to use for the percentage upside.

I would suggest that the current price is too low to be used as a base point, as the price has been affected in recent times by foreign selling and the Covid sentiment factor.

No doubt we could all debate a base price endlessly but I'd suggest it would be difficult to quantify.

Thanks again for your post.

Hi Maxigain, how can that be right?

Weren't a few people in here saying solar power would be the death of Tenaga?.....lol

Yes, I am joking!!

Clearly, some people do not realise that solar is another "fuel" to power the grid, so it's not a bad thing, it's actually a very good thing for the company and the country as a whole.

Over to you, apple and your buddy for comments.

Thanks guys for your kind comments, very much appreciated.
Anything that involves money brings out the sharks and snakes to try and benefit from it, no matter how much pain they cause to others. It's the same everywhere, the Malaysian stock market is not unique to this strategy.

Keep it real :)

No problem, 3101575000.

I'm not going to make outlandish statements that the price will soar or plunge, simply because I don't know what will happen in the short term. It's actually in my own best interest to post totally negative comments about Tenaga, as I've only picked up 2 parcels so far and want another 2 or 3, for long term holds.
As I said yesterday, I've got no issue with negative comments BUT don't try to back them up with fabricated lies. One very obvious lie that was touted by the dynamic duo was in regards to the six month discount to power accounts, with claims that Tenaga will make less money due to that. That is NOT true, as the government and Tenaga have clearly stated that the government are paying for the discount as part of the covid funding scheme.

Another lie was about the "new power companies" hitting the market. Yet another mistruth. They are not new power companies but merely end sellers of the product, the very same product that Tenaga sells to them and they "sell" to clients. They are merely renters of the Tenaga supply.
I have seen this sales model used in other countries and have also lived in countries with the same model. I'm surprised it's taken Malaysia so long to implement it, actually.

All the best with your investment, 3101575000

Hi traintobullland, I hope it does but I like to remain conservative in my views in an overall soft market environment. I'd say the overall market will be up a bit tomorrow but it won't surprise me if the market finishes a bit in the red. That's just the way of the market these days because of the country's current "challenges".

All the best.

Do you think that solar power has nothing to do with Tenaga?
You really need to read up on how solar power is supplied through the grid and the BENEFITS to Tenaga.

It's not my job to educate posters and readers in here but please do some research into the subject you are commenting about before stating clearly ill informed statements.

Just remember who OWNS the electricity grid.

I've got no problem with apple and his sidekick "mywb" posting negative comments about Tenaga or any other stock, BUT I draw the line when they try to backup their comments with total lies. This is a public forum so people are free to give their opinions but don't try to blind the readers with bull$hit.

They clearly have an agenda BUT I don't believe any nonsense they post in here has an effect on a company that trades Rm50 million to Rm100+ million worth of stock each day.

To me, they are just naughty little boys with far too much time on their hands. :)

Next week is a shortened week due to CNY, so the market closes at 12.30pm on Thursday. Looking at the chart, I'd say there's more than a 50/50 chance that this will touch the Rm1 mark before the CNY break.
The 94 to 96.5 region was always going to be a resistance area but 95 held well yesterday in an overall flat day on the market.
I'd be hoping for a break of Rm1 after the CNY holiday.

Let's see how it plays out and that the overall market is at least marginally positive next week. :)

mywb, please, there is no need to tell lies to attempt to cover your tracks.
Now that you have done the Tenaga community a service you can move along.

Trot along, my friend.

I see apple and mywb are working together as a lame attempt at being a comedy duo.
You really need to work harder and brush up your act, guys.

When are we going to see the announcement of the successful tenders for LSS4??

It was supposed to be December, then January.....and we are now into February!!

Get the finger out, government department.

Technicals are looking nice now. especially after yesterday's rise in volume. the highest volume day in 15 trading days.
Stochastics have crossed over and MACD tightening up. Short term Moving Average currently at 94.5, so I'm looking for that to break today or tomorrow.

Appears to be in a nicely controlled accumulation phase. With the Quarterly to be released in around 3 weeks time, my gut feeling is we will see a gradual move up on expectation of the results at least matching the solid last Quarterly.

Buying around this current price point seems to be a decent entry point, IMO.

budak, unfortunately you are talking rubbish.

Do you have any idea how many shares EPF currently hold in Tenaga?
Do you have any idea how many shares KWAP currently hold in Tenaga?

According to you, EPF are "EPF moving out"

Get a grip.

hengsame, why compare?

You will only add more confusion to your mind!

Do you compare your wife to one of those K Pop angels and end up being disappointed?

:)

Ny036......finally someone understands !!!


LOL

You pay NOTHING to receive the free Solarvest Warrant.

If you have 4 shares you get ONE free Warrant.

You can either:
1. Keep the Warrant (expires in 5 years)
2. Trade it (sell it) on the market
3. Pay the exercise price and receive ONE share for every ONE Warrant you exercise.

After reading the previous posts, it's no wonder some people are getting confused!

Let's keep it VERY simple:

To qualify for the free warrant you need to be a shareholder before the Ex Date.
The Ex Date has NOT been announced yet.
You will get ONE free warrant for every FOUR shares you own.
The current exercise price of the Warrant is 1.50.
You only have to pay 1.50 for your Warrant if you want to convert it to a Solarvest share.
You are not compelled to pay for the Warrant.
The Warrant will be tradable on the Exchange.

Any clearer now?

ffs guys, you are tying yourself up in knots!!

Just read the details of the proposal.

https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=109906&name=EA_GA_ATTACHMENTS

Quite a big jump in volume yesterday (Wednesday).

The chart certainly looks better but too early to tell if this is a genuine reversal yet, IMO.
I'd like to see it close above its short term moving average (9.90), then try to break above 10.07 in the very short term.

The overall market is so volatile, it could go either way.

A very solid close yesterday after strong buying late in the afternoon.So, where to from here?

Revised technical support and resistance numbers:

Downside,
S1: 2.28
S2: 2.21
S3: 2.12
S4: 2.06

Upside:
R1: 2.40
R2: 2.48/ 2.49
R3: 2.57.

Confucius says...." A trend remains a trend until it is not a trend" :)

Thanks Rider.

fccrew84 "Nice one @treetopview..we both got real nice tree top view now...any higher need oxigen already..LOL!"

Very true....lol.....I've had the oxygen mask on for a while and now I'm starting to get a nose bleed :)

I've just ran some numbers after putting in today's closing price. You'll need more than oxygen if they follow the script !

All the best.

A solid battle between buyers and sellers today. It's the first day in a while where the buyers are staking their claim, so let's hope they keep as keen as they did today.

Finally broke through 2.28 on its third attempt in 2 days.

A reminder of my price targets from last weekend:

TreeTopView Upside Target:
R1: 2.28
R2 2.35
R3: 2.40

Downside Target:
S1: 2.09
S2: 2.03
S3: 1.98
23/01/2021 12:43 PM

Upside Target:
R1: 2.28
R2 2.35
R3: 2.40

Downside Target:
S1: 2.09
S2: 2.03
S3: 1.98

Good afternoon guys.
Please don't waste your energy trying to pick a definitive bottom price, you'd have as much success throwing a dart at a dartboard for a price.

The current FACTS:
The stock is in a downtrend.....TICK
The drop has accelerated in the past week......TICK
The volume has increased over the past week.....TICK.
RSI and Stochastics are in oversold territory.....TICK
Lower Bollinger Band in steep decline.....TICK
Oversold indicators DO NOT mean it is currently a buy......TICK

So, with the above facts, is it a buy? Well, depending on your investment strategy, either yes or no.
If you are a short term trader, no.
If you are a long term investor seeking capital growth and a dividend, then I'd say yes, with a proviso. I have no idea what the low will be before this trend eventually reverses, however I do plan to buy parcels of shares on the way down at regular price intervals. I bought my first parcel at 9.88 this week as an insurance buy. I have had a repeat bid in since January 14 until the end of the month at 9.70, as the trend of the chart indicated to me back then that it would possibly/probably fall below Rm10.

One indicator I am looking for, and there is no guarantee it will happen, is capitulation. If you look at the 3 month chart as an example, you will see what I mean. View dates, October 30, November 30 and December 11.

My thoughts only and certainly NOT financial advice.

All the best.

Price is still sticking to the lower Bollinger Band, currently sitting at 9.77

Confucius says......" A downtrend remains a downtrend until it is no longer a downtrend"

:))

Downtrend still in place, possible to hit 9.79/ 9.80 today or Monday if it keeps following the same script.

I picked up a bit of "insurance" stock at 9.88, in case the Instos decide to reverse it here.

I still think it's in a downtrend and would expect it to go lower until indicators show otherwise.

My "insurance" stock is only about 25% of the full amount I'll be allocating for a mid/long term hold.

apple168: Who are the "we" you supposedly represent?

I think your price call is farcical, to be politely blunt.

Next step down to 9.84/ 9.85, if 9.90 falls....IMO

Interesting to see some brave soldiers swimming against the tide this morning, even buying up to 10.04 and 10.06 (!!!).
Cannon fodder for the sellers and shorters, imo,

My current thoughts are that the price will keep heading down to flirt with the lower bollinger band. It's been doing that for the last 11 trading days, so I can see no reason yet that it will suddenly change.

Below 10.00, now the fun begins. Tread carefully, these fund managers will probably use it as an opportunity to scare the retailers.

Still no clear buying indicators on the charts.

jeffchan1901, if the cash rate drops, I'm guessing the fund managers may use this as am opportunity to push the market below 1600. I'd expect banks to drop a bit and for some other KLSE majors to have a short term hit.

Nothing drastic but some negativity, IMO. It actually might be a good thing, for a reset.