Spooky~~~~~~~~~~ :)

The 9.62 breakout, on solid volume was the key, Deekay.

lol....there is always one.............

Hi Deekay, interesting to note that this morning's retrace dropped to 9.69, only one cent above the 9.68 Fib point. Good support there, for now anyway.

Nice.

Current Fib. points.
To the upside:

9.62 (broken last Friday)
9.68
9.72
9.77 (Last Friday closing price)
9.91
10.05

To the downside, retracement points:
9.62
9.53
9.44

So far, the upward trend is intact, obviously.

@TakeProfits, as I mentioned in my original Swift post I am viewing this with at least a 6 to 12 month horizon.

You mentioned profit margins being at the low end of the spectrum and I agree, to a point, however this is partly due to the sector it's involved in. With the relatively recent 46% increase in warehousing capacity this may in part assist with improving margins, although we obviously need to see the upcoming quarterly for confirmation.

As for your comment about them not paying a dividend, I'm not sure if you aware they have already paid an interim dividend of one cent and I'm hoping they will follow this through with an end of year dividend.

It may not be the stock for you if you are hoping for an immediate price rise, or if you don't buy into the notion that it could be a possible gradual recovery play. For me, I've taken the risk at 48 cents and depending on the results of the upcoming quarterly I may either add to my position or perhaps decide to sit on my hands.

All the best.

If timing of the upcoming quarterly is inline with previous quarterlies, then they will probably release it during the upcoming week.

I'm looking for at least a marginal increase over the previous quarter, so at a minimum I'd be hoping for numbers around or above the following:

Revenue Rm160 million
Net Profit: Rm12.5 million
EPS: 1.4 cents
Declare a Final Dividend of around 1 cent.

If these revenue and NP numbers are met or exceeded then we might see this eventually breaking out of the mud and breaking the 52 cents barrier.

Hi Deekay, yes it was a pleasant surprise to see it finally break through the 9.62 price point.

Interestingly, once it broke 9.62 (one of my Fib. price points if you recall my earlier posts), we then saw a significant increase in volume and price, from around 10.30am.

Let's see what Monday brings, perhaps either some consolidation or further upward moves.
Although it had an intraday high of 9.82, it closed at 9.77 which purely coincidently is yet another Fib. price point.

Yesterday's MYEG short figures blows the Bursa short positions out of the water.

Total MYEG shorted yesterday, 91,436,700 (Value Rm 56.612,230).

Up massively from Thursday's 17,694,100 shorts and Wednesday's 17,306,500.

I heard that someone was very enthusiastic about supporting the campaign, so decided to buy a box of Viagra.

A slight problem though, the first Viagra pill he took got stuck in his throat and he had a stiff neck for two days.

For any attractive ladies that would like to participate in my "Make Karex Great" campaign, please form an orderly queue and I will get to you in due course.

The low 9.60's area keeps coming up as a breakout point on any Fib. calcs that I do, more specifically 9.62. That has been the case for more than a month now.
With the ever tightening Bollinger Bands, surely something has to break...........and hopefully that will be to the upside.

We continue to sit and wait for a beak of 1,500 on the KLCI, which should provide an updraught for some blue chips like Tenaga and the banks. I certainly hope so, anyway, as the waiting is becoming very tedious!! :)

Hi Deekay, I take your point from the report you posted, however I'd rather lean towards the conservative side for now when it comes to the upcoming dividend as there are so many moving parts with Tenaga. I'd be very pleasantly surprised with a 30 cent payout but I won't be banking on it yet.

Had it been the end of FY23 and not FY22 I'd have been more confident due to the effects of the the industrial and commercial subsidies being lifted, therefore less reliance on the government mechanisms of timing of the cash replenishments.

But hey, if they want to give me 30 cents then I'll gladly take it :)

By the way, did you see the 26% drop in coal overnight? Not too sure what's going on there and if it can be sustained.

Hi KimSua, I'll give an opinion, for what it's worth......rarely any guarantees with Tenaga especially in the past 12 months or so :)

With the steadily increasing tightening of the Bollis, we should be expecting something to give reasonably soon. With the recent slow upward movement since early December, on low volume, my bias is towards an upward move to break the top Bolli Band.

With the quarterly due in about a month's time this may help with the possible move. Along with the quarterly will be the mention of what the Final Dividend will be, I'm not expecting any major surprises there with a guesstimate of around 20 to 22 cents. The ex date for the dividend will probably be March 30, so with that in mind it may also assist with a gradual move upwards in the week's leading up to March 30.

As for the immediate short term, I'd like to see a break upwards of low 9.60's.......a convincing break of 1,500 on the KLCI may help there IF/ WHEN it does eventually break that 1,500 resistance. it's been very stubborn as I thought it would have broke last week but onlu managed to tickle 1,500.

Bottom line, I am slightly hawkish over the next 2 months for Tenaga with an upward bias..... BUT I'd like to see a lot more volume entering the stock if it can break the low 9.60's area.

All the best, KimSua.

Yes, he seems keen :)

DATO' ONG CHOO MENG (a substantial shareholder) acquired 6,200,000 shares on 27-Jan-2023.

I suspect his new increase was from the Warrant purchases and conversions earlier this month.

@prudentinvestor, absolutely no disagreement with you there. Even with a very conservative PE of 10, this should already be above Rm6. With an annual dividend at currently 40 cents it will give a dividend yield of 6.6% with a Rm6 price tag.

As EPF own a major chunk of RHB, almost 41%, we retailers have to sit and be patient on when EPF actually want to take this stock price higher. I am still very optimistic that once the KLCI convincingly breaks 1,500 we will see a lot more strength in the RHB price point.

Until then, we wait and happily take up the dividend yield for now :)

Cheers.

KimSua, have you taken a look at the chart over the past week or so?............or are you still boozed up or hungover from CNY festivities? :)

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/653229

Perak Transit Bhd, which in early December inked a deal with edotco Malaysia Sdn Bhd's 79%-owned On Site Services Sdn Bhd to provide construction and engineering services to On Site Services for the building of telecommunication towers, has now accepted an extended agreement to extend its services to another edotco subsidiary. The Ipoh-based transport terminal and bus operator accepted the extended agreement to provide the same scope of services to Touch Matrix Sdn Bhd via its wholly owned PTrans Resources Sdn Bhd.

You can forget about Rm6 for now, as it needs to break Rm5.80 convincingly and use that as a support level before it can go anywhere.
I remain surprised that RHB hasn't been able to take on Rm6 over recent months, however I still believe that it is only a matter of time before it eventually does.

I won't make any comment, other than to say this deal is starting to get more than a little bit interesting.

2023-01-27
EXTENDED MASTER FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT BY INVOLVING TOUCH MATRIX SDN BHD

We refer to the announcement of Perak Transit Berhad (“PTRANS” or the “Company”) dated 7 December 2022 in relation to the Master Framework Agreement (“Agreement”) entered into between PTRANS Resources Sdn Bhd (“PTRANS Resources”) and On Site Services Sdn Bhd (“On Site Services”) (“Earlier Announcement”). Unless stated otherwise, the definitions used in this announcement shall carry the same meaning as defined in the Earlier Announcement.

The Board of Directors of PTRANS wishes to announce that PTRANS Resources has, on 27 January 2023, accepted an Extended Agreement with On Site Services, where to involve Touch Matrix Sdn Bhd [Registration No. 200301021857 (624277-D)], to provide the same scope of work as further detailed in the Agreement including any supplemental and/or variation agreements, entered into by On Site Services and PTRANS Resources in respect of the Agreement whether before or after this Extended Agreement.

Touch Matrix Sdn Bhd and On Site Services are further and fellow subsidiaries of edotco Malaysia Sdn Bhd.

The Contract is not subject to the approval of the shareholders of PTRANS.

None of the directors, major shareholders of PTRANS and/or persons connected to them has any interest, direct or indirect, in the Contract.

This announcement is dated 27 January 2023.

I eventually decided to take a position in this stock just prior to the CNY break, 17th January, at 48 cents.

If I've got time over the weekend I'll give my reasons, although there are some pros and cons. This is a longer term buy with at least a 12 month horizon and not suitable for those who day trade or are looking for a quick profit.

BNM pauses rate hike by holding OPR at 2.75% in first MPC meeting in 2023, cites moderating growth expected from slower global economy

Let's see :)

Tony, I see the current warrant exercising as a positive, as it appears to me anyway, that someone is keen to take a position in the company at current levels. Clearly they believe that the only way to pick up substantial volume is by paying over the odds for the warrants, otherwise buying that type of volume of the mother share will incur higher prices. That doesn't mean that they are not also buying some mother shares at the same time.

Bottom line is someone is very keen to accumulate at these prices in substantial numbers, so I see it as a positive.

Full list of Warrants converted over the past six weeks, total 11,923,300.

17-Jan-2023....18-Jan-2023....Exercise of Warrants....5,055,000
12-Jan-2023....13-Jan-2023....Exercise of Warrants....3,000,000
03-Jan-2023.....04-Jan-2023.....Exercise of Warrants.....556,000
27-Dec-2022....28-Dec-2022....Exercise of Warrants.....607,550
21-Dec-2022....22-Dec-2022....Exercise of Warrants.....2,220,875
15-Dec-2022....16-Dec-2022....Exercise of Warrants.....483,875

Additional Listing Announcement /Subdivision of Shares

Yet more conversions of the Warrants today, this time for 5,055,000 shares.

Well.......something seems to be brewing.

Hi KimSua, you said....."3rd time testing the 1 year high of 9.5."

It could be possible sometime this upcoming week, particularly if the KLCI can finally break the 1,500 level. I'm slightly positive for the upcoming week for the KLCI to move above 1,500 but less positive about it taking on break points of 1,515 and 1,530.

If the overall market does try to make a marginal forward move this week, then I'd be looking for Tenaga to take on the top B Band of 9.62.

The question is, who is accumulating this stock?
A proxy for Eddie, or someone totally unrelated?

One thing is definite, an individual buyer couldn't accumulate this volume (3 million plus the last 4 weeks of conversions) of the mother stock at WB cost+ conversion cost, without significantly raising the mother share price.

I have the feeling something is going on but I can't get to the bottom of it.......yet :)

0 seconds ago

Additional Listing Announcement /Subdivision of Shares

3,000,000 Warrants converted on 12th January, 2023.

Hi Tony, thanks for the acknowledgment.......all the best for 2023!

@Peace99, re your query about the WB's.
Firstly, keep in mind there is still a lot of life (time) left in them, over three and a half years to expiry.
To date, there has been no selling of the WB's by the boss or his brother, however that doesn't mean it couldn't happen in the future.

I would assume, at least on current form, if there was any selling of WB's by the boss in the short term then it could be to a "friendly" accumulator. Although with any serious dilution from the conversion of the WB's I'd assume (again) that the boss would hold some as insurance, so that his current 30% holding of the mother share can be retained by him eventually converting some for his own portfolio. That assumption is merely guided by his buying of the mother shares last year, after the dilution by the Private Placement, where for a short period he slipped below 30%.

Last month's WB conversions raised an eyebrow to me, making me wonder why someone feltl the need to convert at this point in time when there is plenty time to do it later. That could just be my conspiracy mind theories working overtime though :)

Let's see what the company delivers this year.

@Yeos, they are currently managing the site in question in Alor Setar.

Extract from quarterly........"The Group is also expanding into new third party terminal management services to grow this new asset light business. The collaboration to operate Terminal Sentral Kuantan and Terminal Bas Shahab Perdana in Pahang and Kedah respectively marks the Group’s venture into third party terminal managemen"

The notice you have posted is for management AND upgrading of the terminal.

My guess would be that PTrans could be in the box seat for the project as long as they have been meeting their current management obligations. If there are any other contenders for the project to upgrade the terminal, then we will find out in due course.

@wallstreetrookieNEW, you got your wish, CGS-CIMB Research have came out with an updated report and new price target.

"CGS-CIMB Research raised its FY23-FY25 to account for higher ASPs, better production output, and margin expansion from lower input costs. 

The research firm reiterates an 'Add' call for Karex with a target price raised to RM0.96."

Full news report here:
https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1092631/karex-to-benefit-from-strong-global-demand-for-condoms-growing-tailwinds-from-favourable-operating-environment

I took a relatively small position in Karex on the last day before the Christmas break at 68.5 cents, purely on technical analysis. My target is 82 cents (on technicals) but will monitor it as to whether it does or doesn't get within that price target, to either hold or sell.

As for the technicals, fairly textbook Fibonacci stuff since its 1.35 closings on the 9th and 13th of December.

Fib. retrace points were:

1.28
1.25
1.22
1.18

Currently floating between the 38.2% and 50% retrace points, 1.22 to 1.25.
We had one day where there was a momentary blink at 1.18 for a few seconds but mainly it's being between the 1.22 and 1.25 points.

As for any upside, we will need to move through those 4 price points I mentioned earlier before an attempt at breaking a CLOSING price of 1.35. If that was to occur, then look to 1.41, 1.45 and 1.48.

Another thought about the WB's that I mentioned in my previous post. Perhaps an accumulator (if there is one) has decided to make a move on the WB's and convert them, as it might be difficult to pick up any volume from the mother share without spooking and raising the price.

Just a thought.

Agree, KImSua.

The price will always be at the mercy of the big Funds so no point in fighting that. Hopefully they see Tenaga as I do in 2023, with a RM10.xx handle.

Since late November/early December it's had the appearance of a new accumulator taking up shares in the company.
I wasn't able to watch the daily trades for the last three weeks of December, so not too sure if it continued through that period. Similar trading as in late November appears to be continuing again, also with the WB's too. Yesterday afternoon was an example of that with a buyer at 50 cents continually offering to be filled by a willing seller.......it looked organised to me, imo.

There also seems to be a trend in the WB conversions:

03-Jan-2023.....04-Jan-2023....Exercise of Warrants....556,000
27-Dec-2022....28-Dec-2022....Exercise of Warrants....607,550
21-Dec-2022....22-Dec-2022....Exercise of Warrants....2,220,875
15-Dec-2022....16-Dec-2022....Exercise of Warrants....483,875

If that date conversion trend is to continue there might be another one due around the 9th or 10th of this month.

Oh....and a Happy New Year to all who participate in this PTrans thread :)

EPF went on a Tenaga spending spree in the last three trading days of 2022.

EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 15,745,900 shares on 30-Dec-2022
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 171,900 shares on 30-Dec-2022.
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 3,370,400 shares on 29-Dec-202
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 2,693,600 shares on 28-Dec-2022.

Around 22 million bought in three days, with a value approx. Rm206 million+.

Just a bit over 1.1 million shorts recorded covered yesterday.
EPF finally back in buying mode for Tenaga.

Who knows, it might actually start to go up in price one day....lol

I haven't had much of an opportunity to monitor the market or individual stocks over the past two or three weeks but I was able to watch the last couple of hours on Friday before the New Year break. True to form, the Instos were having their own bit of end of year fun with Tenaga.

Mid afternoon when the price was floating around the 9.40 to 9.45 area, along "they" came and sold it down to 9.31, then within minutes it was back up to 9.45 on heavy volume.

Then we had the close at 9.63, with 12 million shares going through in the closing auction!!

If you want to suffer with paranoia and bi polar disorder, then Tenaga is the stock for you....lol!

I tend to agree with @Ken Chung, when he said that he thinks Tenaga is in an uptrend, however if you are thinking of investing it might be prudent to be prepared for endless Fund and Insto games throughout your journey :)
The price will go wherever the major Funds want it to go, with us mere pawns watching and hoping.

I still hold Tenaga as a long term investment and have no plans to sell in the foreseeable future. I have similar thoughts with the bank stocks I currently own and expect to see them and Tenaga slowly progress throughout 2023, as long as there are no serious global financial downturns. Hold and closely monitor are my thoughts for these blue chips throughout 2023.

Happy New Year to all who participate in this thread........and let's hope there are no major calamities throughout the year.

RHB seems to follow the same path, whether it is going up or down.

If this is the genuine start to an upward leg, then perhaps look firstly for a break of 5.70.
If that gets broken then the usual drop off points are around 5.75, 5.85, 5.91 and 5.97.

Let's see how it plays out this time if it breaks 5.70.

Next Friday, 16th, is another QWD "event".

Whether we will see anything similar from local Instos as we did with the recent MSCI interest in Tenaga is an unknown. We might see a price and volume upward move starting around Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning if the local Instos have similar conviction to MS.

Any price weakness early in the week MIGHT be an opportunity to join the game for possible moves late in the week, or closing auction on Friday.

No guarantees though.

ok

A nice day today, although someone was a bit too enthusiastic in the morning session.

I missed most of the afternoon session due to "Pants off, Friday". No, it's not what you are thinking, it's more to do with friends, food and drinkies for a long lunch after a hard week's work :)

I might post more tomorrow on my thoughts about today......just a bit too weary right now............yes, the effects of a "Pants off, Friday".

I highly recommend it :)

Eddie the Eagle flies in again.

DATO' ONG CHOO MENG (a substantial shareholder) acquired 775,000 shares on 08-Dec-2022.

Perhaps worth reading if you are a shareholder, as it does have some important info. to me anyway.
I'd disregard their target price, unless you are planning to hold for a long time :)

Released this morning...
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/hleresearch/2022-12-09-story-h-303865031-Tenaga_Nasional_Tenaga_Confident_of_ICPT

Thanks, Jerung........same to you.

Good morning, Jerung.

The technicals are still intact. If you recall, I did a technical analysis 4 weeks ago and it appears to be playing out. Here's an extract from that post.........

"Scenario 1: TP1 1.22, followed by TP2 1.34.
Scenario 2: TP1 1.23 followed by TP 1.30.
Scenario 3: TP1 1.24, followed by TP 1.32.

Summarised at TP1 between 1.22 and 1.24.
TP2 between 1.30 and 1.34.

For any of this to happen, we'd need to see a break of 1.13 and 1.16.......with support holding at 1.05."


So, the 1.05 support held, although very briefly touched 1.03 intraday on the same day. No big deal there are most stocks overshoot the runway when going up or down. I backed my 1.05 call and topped up with some at 1.05, although it did drop to 1.03 that day.

On the upside, the 1.22 to 1.24 area was hit, then eventually broke to the upside.

Now we are currently in TP2 area, 1.30 to 1.34. So obviously it needs to break 1.34 to move upwards.

If it does that, then the next price point would be around 1.38-1.39.

Cheers.

Yeah, it could be an interesting time for PTrans over the mid to longer term.

Keep doing what they are doing and making good profit with other possibilities along the way.
I suspect it wont be dull and boring :)

Thanks for that, Tony.

Tony, you asked........"I’m super curious why the company chose this diversification path instead of expanding on their core business".

The company states at the end of yesterday's announcement......."The entry into the Agreement by PTRANS Resources allows PTRANS to provide construction and engineering services to On Site Services for the construction of telecommunication towers. This is in line with PTRANS’ strategy to pursue new business opportunities to increase the Group’s revenue stream and enhance the Group’s profitability. The Agreement also allows the Group to diversify its earning base and reduce dependency on existing businesses".

Also, it was mentioned in a Q&A earlier this year by PTrans that once Bidor is completed, the final Terminal Project will be started at Tronoh. They stated that they would be concentrating more on upgrading and managing existing bus terminals that are owned by local authorities as part of their longer term business plans.