This year is more excited as sifu KC and Stockraider have joined the game. Now, we are waiting sifu OTB and 3i.

Thanks. Probability. Most people know this simple rule but execution is another issue. The biggest problem is being wishy washy la. Wish you a fantastic pig year.

life is so simple if we follow the simple rules. Traders actions are nothing more than
1. let profit run
2. cut gain
3. cut loss.
4. repeat above

As a trader in reality, we can't let our portfolio lead us to disasters. Capital protection is a priority for long term survival in the market.

Dawn is approaching. Pig year would be certainly better than dog. Guess worst year is gone in Bursa. Happy new year and welcome bull to return in 2019.

Mr. Tan, Here's my picks for this year.

SAM - 20%
Cypark - 20%
AirAsia - 20%
JHM - 20%
Dufu - 10%
Bpplas - 10%

Thanks.

Korek2. Congrats. You have earned so much and yet manage to escape from big bear in past 2 years. No problem to you in the next bull run.

Probability. Expart life won’t last for long unless you are a key person holding with critical technical competency or excellent in management skills. Normally, they have a time schedule for succession or replacement of expart. Now, you are seen ready to venture a new life in stock market. Normally, we have to get ourselves fully involved in order to trigger a major breakthrough. Small matter to you.

China economy seems slowing down aggressively triggered by trade war recently ie property crash, P2P lending burst, job cutting, sharing economy popped....so much bad news. US companies won’t be immuned from the impact from China. DJ companies are facing challenging QR in next 6 months. @@

When your boss knows you are ‘free’, she may add more portfolio through promoting you. Promoting your subordinate/junior may not be suitable unless she is really outstanding and able to make a difference of the department....Sometimes, your boss also consider whether your junior character suitable to work with her or not..

When your boss happily say “ you can”, it means everything in order and supporting behind unless he purposely put you in an awkward position until you can’t stand...

It depends on your boss. Normally, it’s related to politic in filling up high position. In some cases, you can’t even refuse your boss kindness unless you plan to leave the company.

Posted by probability > Dec 28, 2018 09:25 PM | Report Abuse

my junior 7 yrs younger than me that i trained is applying for my dept head position which is vacant now...i cant be be bothered to apply though i stand a good chance..

firstly dont like managing people (need to learn new things again too and wont be able to monitor stocks)...

secondly, never valued titles ....its an illusion created to motivate corporate employees...

You are so cash rich to buy a car. When I was thirty, I got a chauffeur but I don’t have money to buy a car. Wakaka. My company was kiamsiap to pay high salary in under developing countries. So what to do....enjoying life lor. Get more staffs to do the job and work efficiently so as to squeeze out more spare time enjoying life out of the office. In order to have more spare time, I would think a lot of ways to monitor the company especially internal control system. No one can break this barrier cause cracking of control system making my life difficult and reducing my extra golden time. It was really funny. Few years later, while the excitement life gone, I diverted my attention to stock market since I got plentiful extra time during working hours. That’s how I started learning to trade and do homework.

Office politic is part and parcel in corporate world. I played a defensive mode but once my peers purposely pointing at me. I would let them go away easily cause ....I do have a habit of collecting information for future use just in case. Normally, my colleagues dared not shotting me.

Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 28, 2018 08:38 PM | Report Abuse

on top of laziness, Stockmarket punting also has another side effect - it makes me didn't bother to fight to climb corporate ladder. In my entire career, I was relatively insulated from office politics. Just couldn't be bother about promotion etc... I just need a steady income and more free time, so that I can make extra from the market

when I was thirty something, I paid cash to buy a car. The salesgirl said he never see young man like me did that before

Laziness attitude that pushing us hard to think further and planning ahead...hahaha. I used to haved a laziness attitude in the office...I worked very hard to figure out and implement a proper systems to monitor staffs for the first 3 years. Not an easy job and until my white hairs came out during that period. The returns for the next few years is I was able to koyang kaki and spending 70% of time learning to trade in share market.... Lolz

Posted by probability > Dec 28, 2018 07:12 PM | Report Abuse

yesterday i realized something....while at office....observed all my colleagues who seems to be very professional and extremely hardworking...

just for a small monthly income...

i feel i can never work like them till retiring....

the daily/weekly fluctuation on my stock investment value ...is almost the same as the whole savings we make in a year...

look at the amount of time and effort people place to earn? they spend their whole life learning new things everyday...send hundreds of mail...presentation and reports..drive to work..send kids to school etc..

...................

we investors are completely different than these people...

i think most of us have some kind of inherent defects these people dont have (some kind of laziness or gambling attitude)...this defects are the one that pushes us to make money from the market...

its like a blessing in disguise..

perhaps this answers why we have so many abnormal people in i3...

No ending for debating who would win or lose in investing/Trading. You guys haven been watering the seed from Investlah to I3 more than 5 years. Both guys makes good money in Bursa but still unable to accept the differences. Wanna carry this seed to next life ke?

Dumb dumb following trend is seen an easy way to surf with the waves rather than against the tide ie crude oil prices trending downward then buy AirAsia.....buy Hibiscus while the crude oil prices trend reverse to uptrend. No need to complicate life so much. Lol

Zhuge. You are doing well in stock market. We are not a real investor like WB or 3iii investing in few companies business sustainable in long term. This is the main weakness in traders go for 2nd and 3rd liners.

The moment we engaged our actions in a mindfulness way, we would be more understand of ourselves...the chain effect of 貪-瞋-癡-昏沉-掉悔

The moment we started to buy property from profit deriving from share trading, there is a feeling of ‘ no matter what happen to my exiting portfolio, I am still making profit in the stock market. ‘ This is another confident level associates with our stock picking decisions whether now or future.

They normally won’t look for capital appreciation in property cause the quantum of capital appreciation in share trading is much higher in stock market. What they look for is security of passive income to cover their daily expenses. In case of market crash, they also able to survive even though portfolio go Holland. Not much pressure in supporting financial commitments in family at least.

It’s always a good strategy to diversify portfolio through buying property from profit derived in share trading. Traders are normally feeling of insecurity due to nature of their business. We would never know the exact time stepping on landmines due to switching among counters in the party. It’s not easy to control greed emotion if we have spare cash on hand and do nothing on it unless we temporarily stop scouting opportunities in stock markets.

Property located in good location providing decent rental yield remains attractive for generating passive income in longer term. It offers high security especially during bear market.

Why not looking for fertile land in neighbouring country? Vietnam is a country which would be benefited most from the trade war. Many manufacturers are pouring money into this country. Industrial land prices are getting higher due to huge demand. In HCM, the rental yield for a soho is between 6% to 7% in downtown. The size of soho is about 26sqm to 40sqm but fetching high demand due to prime location. It costs only US 3k to 3.5 per sqm.

China government is good at hiding / manipulating economy data. They are so scare to publish it now. Guess what had happened to the economy.

" China's manufacturing powerhouse Guangdong suspends PMI data release as numbers slide"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-guangdong-pmi/chinas-manufacturing-powerhouse-guangdong-suspends-pmi-data-release-as-numbers-slide-idUSKBN1OH184

QL has been experienced high growth period few years ago. PAT seems stagnant for the past 3 financial years. By looking at the PAT trend, QL may not able to enjoy exceptional profit growth in near future.

Cash call is going to be real soon as its gearing level keeps moving upward. QL did make a right issues when the gearing reached between 44% to 48%.

Right Issues:
FY 2014 - 300m
FY 2011 - 116.6m

PER: 48x
Dividend yield : 0.73%
Gearing: 40%
Dividend paid: 401m ( FY 2011 to FY 2018 )

PAT
FY 2019 - 105m ( 6 months)
FY 2018 - 216m
FY 2017 - 207m
FY 2016 - 202m
FY 2015 - 196m
FY 2014 - 167m
FY 2013 - 138m
FY 2012 - 139m
FY 2011 - 133m

Turnover
FY 2019 - 1,736m ( 6 months )
FY 2018 - 3,264m
FY 2017 - 3,012m
FY 2016 - 2,852m
FY 2015 - 2,708m
FY 2014 - 2,457m
FY 2013 - 2,147m
FY 2012 - 1,947m
FY 2011 - 1,777m

Yeah. Ignore KLCI. We are getting closer to lowest foreign funds investing in Bursa since 2009. RM 3.7 billion to go to achieve this target. Don't forget opportunity is approaching too.

YiStock. You are the most realistic one...not talking philosophy in investment. Your in depth knowledge in a business and industry offering a real input. In fact, I have been benefitted a lot from reading your articles in past few years....of course, made $$$. We are here in i3 looking forward more technical articles from sifus like you. Thank you.

Yistock is one of the most respected sifu in i3. He has demonstrated his real passion in investment through sharing many excellent articles for us to understand a company business. I love to read his in depth research report.

Bullish would certainly happen in selective sectors as crude oil prices dropping. Hope a new cycle begins next year.

KLCI 30 companies keep reporting lackluster QR. Want to breach 2000 also not easy.

CharlesT Bro, Uncle would have save 100 million if he listened your simple advice in past 3 years. It doesn’t matter how people tag us. Time will tell in the end.

Posted by CharlesT > Dec 3, 2018 09:20 PM | Report Abuse

One thing my 6 sense is damn chun..when i wrote my post to hentam qqq3 on jaks it seems that kyy oredi quietly sold his jaks on thu n fri..

He knew he cant keep it too long so he was kind of surrender n confessed by his latest post on sun

It is hard to believe that Uncle was unable to make a rationale decision before investing JAKS in big scale since he got many experience advisers and his plenty of experience in construction industry.....you are right as his high egoism leaded him to such situations....he wanted to prove OTB is wrong in the end. Haha

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Dec 3, 2018 09:03 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by Up_down > Dec 3, 2018 08:47 PM | Report Abuse

Finally, Uncle has realized potential disaster of a construction firm. The management team and PAC are cunning enough squeezing him and minority out of the game. Never ever place too must trust on construction firm. They can do a lot funny things easily for their own pocket due to vulnerable nature of the business.

You are right and very smart too.
His advisers had informed him about this cunning management team. KYY did not take the words seriously.
The worst part is KYY pushed up the share and let this group to take profit.
Issued out private placement to buy cheap and sell in the market to make big profit. Very good deal.
Either way KYY is a loser all the times.

He had been cheated all the times, because of his ego, he did not sell Jaks.
Very wrong decision in the first place, should not touch this stock if he had listened to his advisers, not one, I was told 3 of them.

Zhuge. Some construction firm bosses can simply let their companies go bankrupt even though they have signed a personal guarantor. No problem.... they still able to enjoy life overseas. Lolz

Probability. I think he would work well with OTB to earn back money. OTB is quite good and resourcesful in scouting theme stock. We are looking forward the next theme in 2019. We can tumpang his ship. Wakaka

Posted by probability > Dec 3, 2018 08:52 PM | Report Abuse

so now Koon has a lot of $$ in hand...its time we find a good investment for him to recoup what we had lost...

Anyway, I respect uncle cutting loss strategy....admitting mistakes and cut it out completely without looking back.

Finally, Uncle has realized potential disaster of a construction firm. The management team and PAC are cunning enough squeezing him and minority out of the game. Never ever place too must trust on construction firm. They can do a lot funny things easily for their own pocket due to vulnerable nature of the business.

Most companies are being squeezed by high commodity prices especially crude oil. Profit were shifting to commodity producers and traders. It is very hard for intermediate manufacturers to fully pass extra costs to customers while raw material prices surging upward. Normally, their customers delay in accepting higher prices( except billing based on commodity price movements ie steel). It would create a lagging and causing profit margin dropping quarter by quarter. Of course, FMCG companies are far more easier to increase their selling prices in tandem with inflation especially big players.

Posted by probability > Dec 2, 2018 04:56 PM | Report Abuse

true up-down...my surprise is on the lacklustre results itself....why did the consumption dip?

is that due intermediate over build of inventory due to an over anticipated growth in consumption...or directly from the end consumers? or is it because of consumption displacement by other market competitors say from Chine forced by the trade war?

cause, as far as the end-consumer consumption volume...my guess is there is hardly any change..

Probability. Many companies have delivered a lackluster QR. The trend is expected to remain in coming QR...another vicious cycle. Silver lining is crude oil price dropping like no tomorrow. Opportunity again to grab another upcoming theme related to it. Hope it is real. Lolz

Probability. I’m lucky this year. My portfolio dropped more than 10% in the 1st half 2018 after cutting losses in GE. The opportunity came back when steel counters resurrection in 3rd Qtr. It helped me to pocket good returns in short period of time and sufficient to offset my losses plus few percent profit. Now, I still earn FD rate..6%. This year is rather tough.

Game changer is approaching. Don't under estimate the potential of crude oil prices 'crash' in near future. It could send a signal to FED to ease interest rate hike next year.

We are positive with the future economy but not now. Why you are being so pessimistic? It would never ending if you 'think' so much. I follow my financial data of the companies for making a decision....

Posted by CharlesT > Oct 30, 2018 01:15 PM | Report Abuse

Rm1 counter drops to rm0.50 u happily buy some thinking the worst nayb over...ops shit it drops another 50% to rm0.25 u may fell kia kia oredi n may buy some for diwn averaging...

Ops shit it drops another 50% to 0.125 or a total of 87%+ fm its rm1...

How? Cut loss so that u still can protect yr 0.125 left??

I would have tempted opportunity now if our listed companies offer good earnings prospects. Right now, more than 80% of earnings kanasai if comparing in Qtr basis. PH government is seen reluctant to give a real boost to our economy. DJ is still staying on high ground.....留 得 青 山 在，不 怕 沒 柴 燒。

Exactly. That's what many big boss or BB always do making money in stock market. It's just bear market offers them good opportunity to squeeze ikan bills or funds.

Posted by CharlesT > Oct 30, 2018 12:41 PM | Report Abuse

Sometimes bosses n big boys liked to rob when its on fired...the cheaper the better so those cannot tahan hv to cut loss n move on..

Most of the time retailers or small fish hv to surrender in this game

The prices of share falling to unreasonable level during bear market is mainly triggered by force selling in margin accounts. It's not holders wanted to get rid of their shares at super cheap price.

Keep track the records in daily basis and compile a monthly and yearly reports. FF has exited Bursa RM 13. 87 billion since 1 May 2018.

Waiting trend of FF to re-enter Bursa again.

CharlesT > Oct 30, 2018 09:50 AM | Report Abuse

Yeap. Its happening now

The question is how much more can it go lower...

10%? 20% 30%? 50%? Suspended at 0.04 like MPCorp and then delisted?

Bro, Don't set too much limitations on ourselves. there are many counters outside for us to grab. Not all in one basket la.


Posted by CharlesT > Oct 30, 2018 11:32 AM | Report Abuse

I started to buy when there is 50% discount...buy again when there is another 50% discount...what if it drops by 90%?

I bought too early in 2018 as I followed WB timing...so I didn't make much.

I am tracking few hundred counters earnings now. Majority are still trending downward...so I am waiting patiently now. Many DJ big corporations earnings are expected hitting peak in the end of this year. Nothing much interesting in 2019 liao.

Posted by CharlesT > Oct 30, 2018 11:30 AM | Report Abuse

Bro up down i made a mistake in 2007 ...when mkt laosai during nov m dec 2007 many were waiting for bigger correction which they believed will happy in mid 2008 which never happen

So now i buy phase by phase

80 cents is good buy since it's merely 20% of the peak price.

CharlesT Bro, Not really. DJ is holding my excitement. I am waiting US to kanasai before re entering the market in bullish mode. Will wait and see things to happen in next 6 to 12 months.

Apply margin of safety to shop during super mega sales....pay max 25% of peak share price for counters without near term good prospects.