Shouting Jaya Tiada again? I have been listening few times all the way from 60+ until now. Enjoy your show. Hahaha

Why Jtiasa reported low profit in 2022 during CPO price bull run? The reason is mainly attributed to low FFB production resulting from serious labor shortage in harvesting fruits. The downward spiral effect did not stop in harvesting. It impacted get into lacking labor for the application of fertilizer and upkeep of the productive lands.

Upstream plantation player re-rating is merely targeting Jtiasa nia. A long way to catch up the SOP market cap.

Breaking through the bottleneck 1.1. Keep it up.

Calvin, your valuation model is exaggerated and it might only happen if CPO price trades above RM 6k per ton. Max 2.40 to trade on par with SOP & TAAN in current valuation.

Jtiasa big boys > Don't ever disturb my turtle pace of hill climbing or else i would whack you. Haha

Morever, mixture of unplanted lands plus planted lands sold by Rsawit price RM 16.6k per hectare which is much higher than existing Jtiasa planted lands RM 12k per hectare. Share buyback is a better option than acquisition of new lands.

Better not to sell to Jtiasa. Investors might suspect Jtiasa bailing out debt laden Rsawit.

Rsawit sold most of their unplanted lands and old trees. Young and prime mature lands represents merely 2,609 hectares out of 9,935 hectares.

Merely moderate news in plantation sector. Rerating is targeting to Jtiasa only. Of course, price down means JtiaDa to some.

Jtiasa's style is turtle hill climbing. It would take another 6 months to break and trade above RM 1.2. Wait and see !

Not to outsmart taiko. Let him lead us to climb up the hill slowly.

Bought all the way up from 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s. As usual, the price dropped after i bought tis morning.

The operators won't give people chance to make fast and easy money here. Let's look back how the price climbing up slowly from 65 cents to 95 cents for the last 6 months.

Let those TA experts cracking their head in short term. Hahaha

It takes a bit more time to clear the tickets stucked in 2nd Qtr 2022. Many want to get rid of the suffering during the last 18 months.

Mind blowing PAT 63m after excluding BA gain. TP remain RM 2.

PAT 40m to 50m is good enough given CPO were traded around RM 3800 per ton.

Washing out short term TA players?

PAT 60m without tax reversal would be very good results.

Harlen, a loss making company, is also traded at market cap RM 32k/hectare whereas Jtiasa stays far behind RM 12k/hectare. Mana boleh!

Upcoming QR is the catalyst to sustain price heading north momentum to reach TP 2.

The impact of El Nino in FFB production has started in Indonesia as report by Gapki 2 days ago.
https://gapki.id/en/news/2023/10/28/palm-oil-performance-in-august-2023-production-drops-local-consumption-keeps-rising/

It is easy to trace back if 1 truck of out 3 or 5 load exiting the plantation area or tracking diesel consumption for internal truck or number of trip billed by the transporter. The biggest loophole is fertilizer application. Hardly able to trace back.

INNO and TSH are both under the similiar management. Why the financial performance of Inno is entirely different? So, better accept the reality which is beyond the control of the management. More important, accept the reality of underperforming in such legal enviroment.

Go to benchmark TSH's CPO selling price against the prices published by MPOB.

Extracted from Umcca thread:

Max2838

With CPO price at above RM5000, this continues to be a disappointing plantation company, dragged down by its Indonesian operations. Companies that do not have oil refineries in Indonsia will always lose out because CPO price in Indonesia is some RM1000 lower than that in Malaysia. In general, the crop yield of its plantations in Malaysia is so much lower compared to UP, KLK, IOI, HSP, etc. Weakness is in it harvesting operations, not agronomy....

In this prefession, we learn from our mistakes most of the times. We keep update our own valuation model against the market. It's worthless pointing the finger to another. Still living in the past glory ke?

Jtiasa valuation only RM13k/planted hectare in comparing with industry average RM30k/hectare. Mr Market is likely confused between 13 and 30.

Rebounded so fast. Time to resume moving north again.

The gross margin will be gradually recovered in the next few quaters before including additional revenue and profit contribution from the new factory as a result of SEA regional market expansion.

Not many know the raw material price of milk has dropped back to pre-covid level and many remains in the dark for the next few quaters unless it were clearly infomed by the management.

It sounds like recycling the old news again. The company should give more information to the market about the raw material prices locked-in with the mother company for the next 6 to 12 months.

Good FFB yield per hectare but extra low net selling price of CPO after adding Indonesia Export Levy and Duty. CPO prices difference about 11% between Malaysia and Indonesia in comparison with Inno. In addition, TSH's 90% CPO is produced in Indonesia further dampen its earnings.

Aji had made a strong comeback with returning of better gross margin. Dlady could be the next.

Nice price consolidation or shaking.

Material purchased is getting cheaper from the quarterly related party transactions and gross profit margin on the way back normal level. This is another turnaround play.

Valuation of financial strong upstream plantation companies have shifted to Market capital per planted hectare and excluded old trees.

Rerating of Jtiasa would offer a fair valuation from RM 2 to RM 2.4 on the back of peers Market cap per hectare between RM 28k and RM 33k.

Mr Market has given a fair valuation to the upstream plantation companies. Bldplnt, MHC, NSOP, SOP, TSH, TAAN and Umcca are all traded in the range of market cap RM 33k per planted hectare after excluding old prime trees. What a coincidence!

Aiyoh 3i, do more research of the plantation companies rather than sticking to easy going companies. In reality, Genine is not involved in funds investments. Hahaha!

If I am not mistaken, Genine and Asanas are only or used to invest in Jtiasa, Subur and Rsawit (Tiong family companies).

Genine Chain (and Asanas Sdn Bhd) are closed related to Tiong family more than 10 years ago. Tiong bought Subur shares from Asanas years ago. Asanas is or used to be the shareholder of Jtiasa, Subur and Rsawit.

JTIASA will harvest more than 320, 000 tons of FFB in 3rd quarter. It is more or less similar with SOP harvesting FFB quantities.

Genine disposed exactly 10 million shares for the last few days. Saw many shares quing above above 85 cents. It could be another batch of the shares.

JTIASA has achieved a turnaround in 2 years because of all its trees is prime mature. The main problem to Rsawit is the old age of the trees, 40% planted areas > 20 years old.

Cash inflow from 3 quarters depreciation worth RM 102 million plus conservative PAT 90 million are sufficient pay off the loan and RM 55 million related parties transactions.

It takes 2 more quarters to turn Jtiasa into a fully net cash company. Jtiasa will enjoy a savings in finance costs RM 25 million. By then, market cap planted per hectare of Jtiasa would be valued on par with its peers.

JTIASA valuation is far below other Sarawak planters. Peers are traded at much higher MYR planted/ hectare.

Jtiasa - MYR 12k
SOP - MYR 28k
Swkplnt - MYR 26k
TAAN - MYR 32k

Finally, market is aware of Jtiasa turning around of its FFB yield. Rerating on the way.