A leading indicator ,US PPI index, is trending downward or dropped from the peak 11.3% in 12 months ago against reported 2.3% for Apr 23. It shows that CPI is under control after Fed hiking interest rates steeply. Expect Fed to announce cutting interest rate in the year end.

Weather is really hot recently and may cause increasing consumption of electricity. Be prepared for the el nino in 2nd half.

Energy costs doesn't restricted to electricity. You see the prices of petrol, diesel, lpg and natural gas...you can make a comparison between Malaysia and the Asia countries. See how much differences. In fact, confectionery factory use more natural gas if it's available in the industrial park.

Increase in electricity tariff will certainly have a negative impact to the bottom line of the Malaysia confectionery industry. Energy hike is a global issues and Malaysia has been heavily subsidied the local industry. Go to compare the electricity tariff in Asia

People know the electricity tariff hike already. How's the impact is dependent on the industry. Heavy industry is expected to be suffered more. See how much the impact to OFI and HupSeng in its quarterly report next month.

Global hike energy costs would make Malaysia consumer products more competitive in the market since domestic industries are subsidized directly or indirectly. I don't have any export sales of Apollo but OFI's export sales surged continuously for the last 3 quarters.

Distributors and big retailers were suddenly built up 40% more of end consumer products in 2 consecutive quarters. It is rather unusual practice. Why were they being so rush...afraid of increasing selling prices? That's what we normally see in commodity products. If the turnover was suddenly surged with merely 1 quarter then it could be a stock repleshment

Zzprozaz. We both using the different basis to make a projection of potential turnover in the next 2 quarters. I am using the quarterly turnover and inventory to see the trend and the relationship or if there is any strong correlation over the past 7 years. It seems there is something change apparently since 2022. Quarterly turnover was relatively stable trending downward over the last few years.

Normalized? Apollo is going to deliver turnover 20% to 30% higher than pre-covid level for FY 2023 (FY Apr 23). I don't know. May be you are right.

zzprozaz. Google " apollo food agm 2021 minutes ". hihi

Link for Apollo AGM minutes 2021
http://www.apollofood.com.my/27AGM/Key%20Matters%20AGM%202021%20-%20Appendix%20A.pdf

zprozaz. I don't know what are the main reasons behind surged in Turnover over the past 2 quarters. Is there any new product launching or venturing into new market besides one off restocking as what you said. I agreed that turnover of OFI & HupSeng have returned to pre-covid level after comparing with the past 5 years. On the other side, Apollo's turnover is rather different as shown below.

Turnover - Apollo
FY 2023 - 197m (9 months)
FY 2022 - 188m
FY 2021 - 190m
FY 2020 - 175m
FY 2019 - 189m
FY 2018 - 191m

Turnover - HupSeng
2022 - 318m
2021 - 296m
2020 - 327m
2019 - 310m
2018 - 307m

Turnover - OFI
2022 - 288m
2021 - 296m
2020 - 267m
2019 - 287m
2018 - 288m

Turnover - HupSeng
2022 - 318m
2021 - 296m
2020 - 327m
2019 - 310m
2018 - 307m

Zzprozaz. The new machine speed is definitely much higher than the output of the old junk 10 years ago.
" new machinery line in 2021 was made primarily to benefit from new
technology's ability to save energy while also increasing output."

Wait patiently except a new commercial viable technology is developed and tin mineral is excluded from making EV batteries.

AGM 2021 Minutes. There is a question related to the investment in PPE .

Q16. Inquiry received from Mr Koh Chooi Peng:
There has been a big jump in the Purchase of Property, Plant & Equipment amount
to RM8.511 million in FY2021 vs RM1.408 million in FY2020 (page 71 of AR).
(a) What are the reasons for the huge increase in PPE?
(b) The Capital Commitment provided for FY2021 was only RM931,000 (page 111 of
AR), what will be the commitments expected for FY2022?

Board’s Response:
The RM8.511 million was used to purchase new machinery for the waffle production line.
The Company's current chocolate waffle production line is more than ten years old, so the
decision to invest in a new machinery line in 2021 was made primarily to benefit from new
technology's ability to save energy while also increasing output. Additionally, the existing
line can be upgraded to the level of the most recent technology.

Turnover surged is in line with the confectionery industry players like OFI and HupSeng. It could be partly due to increased capacity as new line (worth RM 10m PPE) has put into operations in 2022. Any new products launched in year 2022?

It may take years to get the inflation back to 2% level. Look at what had happened to the crude oil supply recently. There is a strong price correlation between QE and commodity (Crude oil, soy oil and palm oil). Good day for low inflation is gone.

Before you buy Jtiasa, you should think about what game you want to play with Mr Market. If not, Mr Market would squeeze you kaw kaw! As for me, I have allocated a team of kamikaze trops to fight with them.

According to the trend of monthly FFB production for last 10 years, this year 2023 Jtiasa FFB production would be increased by 15% to 20% in comparison with year 2022.

What if CPO price drop to RM 3k level? I am merely a small potato but i would keep playing squeezing game with the Mr. Market. The next stop would be 62 cents and follow by 57 cents and go for the extreme 47 cents. See who would suffer more paper loss in the end. lolz

Squeezing game again. See how low it can go. I would make it slightly more... Be aware of margin.

Fed rate hike is peaking and max would be adding another 0.25% in the next meeting. No matter how, pausing rate hike and starts cutting interest rate are the only way out to safe the economy. QE will be the only possible way to save banks.

Fed rate hike is peaking and max would be adding another 0.25% in the next meeting. No matter how, pausing rate hike and starts cutting interest rate are the only way out to safe the economy. QE will be the only possible way to save banks. Go for MSC!

When the CPO price is very high then the company would turn into Jaya Tiada and vice versa.

Jaya Tiada and Jtiasa works in cyclical. It depends when we catch it up to wait it turn from Tiada to Tiasa or vice versa. Lol

Risks is inevitable in investing and therefore, what we can do is to minimize it through more understand the company itself, comparison within its peers, the development of the industry and the macro environment especially QE/QT and how Fed lead the direction of Interest rates. It doesn't mean i would ignore entirely CPO prices and the story might be different when CPO prices were hovering between 5k to 6k.

Average age profile of Malaysia palm old trees is deteriorating as more than 2 million hectare of the trees over 22 years old. Replanting costs is between MYR 20k to MYR 30k per hectare.

Malaysia planted area was at the peak of 5.9 million hectare in year 2019. The planted area is getting smaller year by year and dropped until 5.67 in year 2022 or the planted area has contracted by 3.8%. It could be due to replanting exercise is being carried out at slow pace.

QE has resumed following short life QT of 10 months. Fed implemented QT from May 2022 until Feb 2023 and US 630 billion had been withdrawn from the market. In mere 1 week, an indirect QE US 308 billion was pumped into the market. "the Fed sharply increased its lending to banks—to the tune of $308 billion, up by $303 billion from the prior week. Only $12 billion of that was through the emergency Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), while $153 billion was through the traditional discount window and $143 billion was tied to Silicon Valley Bank and Signature. "

As at Dec 2021 or 2022
FGV (Year 2021)- Mature Area 279,141 hectare ( old trees 97,531 or 35% of mature trees ) Immature area 56,660 hec
IOICorp (Year 2022) - Mature Area 143,787 hectare ( old trees 54,310 or 28% of mature trees) Immature area 31,505 hec
KLK (Year 2022) - Mature Area 253,870 hectare ( old trees 72,782 or 29% of mature trees) Immature area 35,780
SimePlnt (Year 2020) - Mature Area 490,005 hectare ( old trees 156,802 or 32% of mature trees) Immature area 93,334 hec

Few overseas oil palm upstream big players are encountering high rate of old trees. It may cause supply disruption in the next 3 years as the trees getting older at the faster pace and immature areas unable to catch up the shortfall.

As at Dec 2022
Golden Agri - Mature Area 497,353 hectare ( old trees 179,047 or 36% of mature trees ) Immature area 39,788 hec
First Resource - Mature Area 195,575 hectare ( old trees 52,205 or 27% of mature trees) Immature area 15,834 hec
Wilmar - Mature Area 213,729 hectare ( old trees 37.738 or 18% of mature trees) Immature area 17,968 hec

Plantation giants are too facing the similar problem of high proportion past prime trees in their portfolio due to delay in replanting programs ie FGV, KLK, IOICorp & SimePlnt. Old trees have exceeded 30% of their mature areas. Some even opt to drop disclosing age profile of the trees in the AR last year.

Therefore, Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) has recently called for mass replanting in Sabah.

Some bigger size reputable plantation companies cannot help of seeing their share prices from falling. GenP is a good example as 30% of its mature trees more than 21 years old as at year 2021. SOP is another one has entered old trees cycle since 3 years ago. More will be seen in the next 3 years. Many companies are unable to do replanting for past 6 years due to the sliding of CPO prices (2017 - 2019). 3 years Covid period had caused shortage of labour to do harvesting an replanting exercise was entirely out of question.

Sarawak upstream plantation players are not able to fetch higher planted/hectare as most of the palm oil trees are planted in peat soils land. However, few companies (BldPlnt, BPlant, Cepat & MHC ) traded between MYR 23k to 28k/planted hectare mainly attributed to high portion of the old trees in the plantation portfolio.

Some upstream plantation companies are traded much higher planted/ hectare.

ChinTek - MYR 47k
HSPlant - MYR 42k
Inno - MYR 57k
NSOP - MYR 35k
PLS - MYR 41k
TSH - MYR 35k
Umcca - MYR 42k
GenP - MYR 34k

Don't expect fast money from Jtiasa like what had happened last year, a sudden super bullish CPO price rally turbo charging to boost the price. Therfore, It could take 6 months to 12 months to see results of rerating.

Without the involvement of big players actively to lead the market , volume and price are certainly dull alike dead water. Don't expect them to defy the movement of the whole market trend in short term. Many people can lead to price movement in short term (1 day to week). Syndicate is needed to lead the price in the longer period as they have more funds to do the job.

If I were the big players, I might create more volitality to squeezed more short term traders. How can let them enjoy easy money so much. Hahaha

Back to the price 70 cents before ex dividend. I thought the big players would have dumped until 64 cents this morning for us to pick up at market cap MYR 9k/ planted hectare.

Just browsed the lands ownership of Jtiasa, SOP, SwkPlnt and TAAN. More than 90% of their palm oil land is under leasehold.

Now, Jtiasa is traded at market cap MYR 9.6k/ planted hectare. Both SOP & SwkPlnt are fetched at MYR 27k/ planted hectare ( excluding old trees ) whilst TAAN is hovering around MY 30k/ planted hectare.

Replanting costs are between RM 20k to 30k now.
https://www.thevibes.com/articles/business/87605/one-third-of-sabahs-oil-palm-trees-old-prompting-call-for-mass-replanting

Jtiasa left the debt-laden niche plantation club (FGV, NPC, Rsawit, TDM, ThPlnt & Subur). The company is marching back to the healthy balance sheet Sarawak plantation club ( SOP, SwkPlnt & TAAn )

Blueblues. What I meant is let us see whether Jtiasa would turn into a net cash company after 9 months.

Jtiasa will turn into a net cash company within 9 months. The Company would save at least MYR 20 million/ year interest payment. Besides profit itself, Non cash flow item Depreciation provides cash inflow around MYR 130 million/year. Low capex is another plus point. See how it goes 9 months later.

Jtiasa quarterly FFB production yield (annualised) per hectare was maintained slight above 16 tonnes at least from beginning 2018 until 2nd quarter 2020. The yield has slid to 10.5 tonnes in 2 years time until 1st quarter 2022. Most probably due to lack of money to buy fertilizer and shortage of labour while the CPO prices hitting low level during covid period. Now, the yield has been going up gradually to 12.5 tonnes while the company made a good profits for year 2022. Expect the FFB yield will be returned to 16 tonnes level within 24 months.

KPJ still got legs to move up further in comparison with IHH &TMCLife.

Testing time. Getting rid of short term traders.

Jtiasa will go out of wood in high gearing plantation group (NPC, Rsawit, TDM, THplant & GLBhd) traded at market cap MYR 10k/planted hectare. Upgrading to low gearing group is imminent to reflect great improvement in its financial position.