Latest Alliance Research pointed 2 important points:
(1) The light sensor production volume has increased to 20 mil units per month and to further increase to 40 mil unit per month in August. This number is much higher than my estimation of 13 mil units per month.

(2) New smart device is expected to carry 2 light sensors instead of 1 unit in previous model.

http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1767134/%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A1%E5%A4%8D%E8%8B%8F%E5%9C%A8%E6%9C%9B%E2%80%A7%E4%B8%9C%E7%9B%8A%E6%9C%80%E7%B3%9F%E5%B7%B2%E8%BF%87

Q4 As mentioned on page 17 of Management Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) in the
Annual Report, one of the factors contributing to the Company’s strong
performance and turnaround is its new product breakthrough and significantly
improved financial performance in the sensors division.
(i) Can the company sustain this performance in financial year 2018?
(ii) What are the major factors that could derail the achievement of this goal?

A4(i) The performance of GTB’s sensor division was dependent on the take-up rate of consumer product of its end customer. As mentioned, there was some inventory in the supply chain that needed to be depleted as well as the switch over to the next generation sensors at an earlier date, which would impact the performance of GTB’s sensor division from March-May 2018 with lower volume loadings. Nevertheless, as the new generation sensors -- started mass production in June 2018-- and incorporated into new customer electronic products in 2nd half of 2018, growth was expected in this segment year on year.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/semiconductor-fab-equipment-spending-grow-14-yoy-2018-says-semi

- "It said China's equipment spending is forecast to increase 65% in 2018 and 57% in 2019."


"Domestic, Chinese-owned companies — backed by large government initiatives — are building a considerable number of new fabs that will start equipping in 2018," it said.

SEMI said the companies are expected to double their equipment investments in 2018 and again in 2019.

Bro, thanks!

Posted by Flintstones > May 31, 2018 06:42 PM | Report Abuse

Good write up. Good luck.

Put it another way, if future can earn 15 sen EPS, based on current price of RM 2.50, the forward PE is 16 times. Or you are looking for forward PE of below 10 times for tech stock?

Above article is a projection of 1 year, certainly NOT current market. Anyway, just my thinking. Good luck!!
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veln82k6: PE 25 too high for current market lo.. below 15 will buy..
01/06/2018 08:07

Hi Guys, Penta is currently (6 jun) trading at PE of 22.14 times @ adjusted TTM EPS of 11.25 sen. My simple logic tell me there is no problem for Penta to get PE of 25 in 1 year time. If now can, why not 1 year after? I'm not saying "why", i'm saying "why not".

I don't usually go for complicated mathematics formula to do valuation because i'm not preparing myself for an exam. My target in share market is to make money.

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Jon Choivo: The moment you used normal range P/E to do valuations, it became kind of hard to take you seriously.
31/05/2018 19:38

Fabien Extraordinaire: historical PE range has no bearing on future valuations!
31/05/2018 21:55

Sebastian Sted Power: bad market sentiment you still dream PE 25? Single digit probably (bout RM1.5-RM1.75)
31/05/2018 22:37

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2060941757496614&id=1635137293410398

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2060941757496614&id=1635137293410398

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2060941757496614&id=1635137293410398


Now, this is what rafidah aziz reveal the true story bwhind..bravo Airasia..bravo Tony

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1323162101116958&id=742366455863195

FRONTKEN SINGAPORE- Last year, the semiconductor division concluded negotiations with one of the leading worldwide suppliers of high
performance sensor solutions which will contribute positively to the Group’s
performance in the years to come.

https://appleinsider.com/articles/18/02/14/rear-facing-3d-sensing-technology-possibly-slated-for-fall-2019-iphone-allowing-apple-to-press-ar-advantage

penta is supplying equipment to ams/heptagon. I believe also supply to gtronic. While equipment supply is less sensitive to end product demand cycle, therefore current slow demand on sensor will affect gtronic more in short term. Penta will less like affected and should continue to supply equipmenet based on order. Obviously AMS need to quickly ramp up production to standby for 2H.

looks like Lim B.H. is trying to take control again MMAG...wish us good luck!

certainly not 1st time

Is "selling" not "Sold"

So far not seeing any particular high volume sell-off in any individual stock. Example: KESM at 9:33 am. - 68 sen due to 5.9 lots (x1000) of share disposed.

Fabien, is way below my expectation. It was like totally NO cost-past-through.

The gross margin for Q4 had fallen to only 10.9% in comparison to immediate 3 quarter average of 15.7%. Roughly 4.8% spike in resin price; which is equivalent to RM10.1 mil profit roughly, did not pass over to customers. Why no cost pass through? My speculation of reason is the spike is not caused by oil/ natural gas but 1 off natural disaster. I hope somebody can go to question the management in coming AGM.


Together with RM 2 mil forex loss, i would say approximately RM 12 mil of knee jerk in Q4 2017.

Marche restaurant did not really impact the earning i think. I say so because of the
1% different of administrative cost compared to total revenue between Q3 & Q4 2017.

Furthermore, the higher cost could be due to set up cost, thereafter, the running cost should stabilized too.

Anyway, the resin cost has now stabilized. Restaurant already buka for biz.

Conclusion: I hope this Q4 17 is 1 off knee-jerk. Total revenue is still pretty impressive.


Fabien Extraordinaire Stock: [TGUAN]: THONG GUAN INDUSTRIES BHD
Jan 30, 2018 11:01 AM | Report Abuse


@YiStock, was the recent Q4 margin compression within ur expectations?
02/03/2018 11:31

Good understanding. Cheers!


Posted by hng33 > Mar 1, 2018 09:30 AM | Report Abuse

TGuan is one of the largest plastic producer. Its revenue keep increasing in view of surge in demand global packaging especially stretch film demand. However, profit margin is compress due to high input cost, resin which is by product from crude oil. Crude oil as feed-stock is under adjustment due to abundant supply from US shale oil and price downward will trnaslate into lower resin input cost further.

Due to time lag factor, Tguan should be able to pass through cost to end user to improve its profit margin forward.

duit gor...gong xi fa chai :-)

The raw material price i tracked for Q4 up by approximately 5.84% compared to immediate Q3 (mainly due to 1 off price surge resulted from in USA), there after the resin price has gone substantially lower and back to norm. Thanks to stable natural gas price.

I think will have some minor impact to the gross profit margin. However, i also expect more contribution in term of volume from new blown lines plus 2nd unit of 33 layer nano machine with better margin in Q4.

All in, i think up coming result should not be bad..but will not be outstanding either. Expecting Revenue to record historical high. Earning should be doing ok.

Share Split in the card?

cheers!



Posted by YiStock > Nov 14, 2017 08:48 PM | Report Abuse X

The raw material price i tracked for Q3 up by approximately 3.1% comparer to previous quarter. I think will have some minor impact to the gross profit margin. However, i also expect more contribution in term of volume from new blown lines plus 2nd unit of 33 layer nano machine with better margin in Q3.

All in, i think up coming result should not be bad..but will not be outstanding either

0.58 TP


Posted by YiStock > Dec 20, 2017 03:00 PM | Report Abuse X

0.50

Duit, just back from oversea. Cheers. :-)

Mr. Tan , then pick mmag mother share. Thank you.

John, i believe so. New capacity & additional stakes added in taiwan ares green. The earning should be good. Fundamental looks excellence. Oil & gas is stabilizing. Frontken has several MNC O&G companies in their portfolio.

Last 2 years, frontken running on 1 engine. 2018 hopefully both engine run on turbo.


Posted by John Lu 《HENGYUAN upgrade to SIA LANG》 TP RM30 > Jan 5, 2018 08:19 AM | Report Abuse

Yistock, good pick. Frontken still have upside?

Mr Tan, Kindly set up below portfolio. Thank you.
1) MMAG-WB - 25%
2) MYEG - 10%
3) Tguan-wa - 20%
4) Cuscapi - 15%
5) Penta - 15%
6) Frontken - 15%

0.50

My main point is: lsteel not up sream player.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/YiStock/104483.jsp
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/YiStock/104601.jsp

I wrote above 2 articles. I think steel business is quite complicated. And i also believe 1 or 2 quarter good or bad result can not tell whether the steel company is good or bad.

*better pricing power

Just share some thought if Lsteel is mid to down stream player:
1) steel price up may/ may not benefit steel manufacturer (up stream), but can be bad news for mid stream players like rebar producers since the input cost (the raw material price cost) to make the rebar will up too. It depend on how fast the rebar makers can pass through the higher cost to customers. Further more,contract at certain selling price may have prefixed which will delay the cost pass through. It may take weeks/ months depend on contract sign.

2) rebar selling price up may not benefit the rebar maker too as it will affect the demand (wait and see attitude of customers/ poor market demand). It will again back to supply and demand problem; or selling price negotiation. Also any contract price fixed.

3) revenue increase not necessary due to increase in volume sold. As higher selling price may cause revenue up when volume stay flat.

4) if company has old raw material bought at cheaper price, they main enjoy good margin. But once old cheap raw mat stock depleted, the newly purchase raw mat is not cheap, and therefore margin eroded.

I think up streme players like annjoo & masteel are relatively "safer" to invest mainly because it has lesser competitors and pricing power compared to rebar makers. Rebar makers should be the party being squeezed by customers and supplier.

Just some thought. Hope it helps. Cheers

Ha ha

The raw material price i tracked for Q3 up by approximately 3.1% comparer to previous quarter. I think will have some minor impact to the gross profit margin. However, i also expect more contribution in term of volume from new blown lines plus 2nd unit of 33 layer nano machine with better margin in Q3.

All in, i think up coming result should not be bad..but will not be outstanding either.

Just sharing my view:
1) cuscapi has upcoming contribution from china.
2) with or without uqs, outdated pos system need to be replaced (especially when cuscapi has cloud based pos which is much cheaper) so that it is compatible to myeg gst dongles. Cuscapi is the only listed pos system company in bursa if not mistaken. And it serves many large food chains in malaysia.

Patient lo

https://m.nownews.com/news/2619969

Not bad at all ..

O&G is history for frontken.

EPS is relevant when you need to tabulate ratios. It can be found easily.

eyewitness Why do you not even mention EPS for Q2/17 was 0.5 sen?
Is that not relevent?
25/08/2017 10:38

BPplas (yellow line) is GENERALLY very lag in pass through the cost. I tend to agree with Patrick 13, the gross margin should bounce back assuming business volume remain stable.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/thongguan/109901.jsp

On another note, bpplas is still selling the old technology strectfilm. If they do not upgrade their machine with newer technology, i believe the business volume will continue to be under pressure.

Bpplas generally take at least 2 quarters to pass through the cost. The lower gross margin of quarter 2 is very likely due to higher resin price in quarter 1. Since resin price has averagely drop about 6% in quarter 2, i believe quarter 3 result should improve.

I think stockmanmy wanted to share some of his firm believing in stock investment. Unfortunately, he choosen the extreme method of presenting the idea by tarnishing others. It is no different from a few forummer also use similar method by tarnishing icon8888. Perhaps to many this is a good method to attract attention. In the world of cyber or real life, the fastest way to gain attention is to challenge the most reputable one. You tends to get famous faster.

While he may have many valid point in his investment method, all these valid turn out to be invalid after endless posts and endless argument trying to make people believe, acccept, or recognise his believe.

This is a very sad example.

calvingtaneng very good

For KESM case, I just check on the chart, let use 23 May 2016 price RM 4.08 as based. It surged to RM 15 on 5 Jun 2017. A total of 267% net gain. T

The earning for past 5 quarters is 7.6 mil --> 8.0 mil --> 10.0 mil --> 9.9 mil --> 10.6 mil...from 7.6 mil surged to 10.6 mil, is only about 39% (7.6 mil vs 10.6mil)

If you noticed here, a 39% surge in earning propel 267% surged in share price? Obviously a big buyer willing to pay much higher PE for KESM. One simple reason i can think of is the 40 mil outstanding shares. It is super LIGHT WEIGHT TO OWNED. Most importantly, before I want to buy, i need to have cash, and i need to have inner connection.

My understanding can be right, can be wrong.

I also hope Tguan can skyrocketing, but unfortunately we have not meet the rich guy who willing to buy at whatever PE and earning now, but we do have one rich old man keep disposing. Hopefully, when he sold all, then the share price will move upward.


Posted by riskabsorber > Jun 8, 2017 11:57 AM | Report Abuse

Thanks YiStock, however, is liquidity really matters? KESM only have 40mil shares but the share price is like skyrocketing. For us, I believe you're the expert and your opinion can influence most of the inactive shareholders.

Riskabsorber, for tguan case, quite obvious liquidity is serious problem. Management well aware of it. Perhaps they are waiting for right timing. I would suggest let the expert do the thinking. In this case, the tguan management. We are not expert, theoretically.

Q2 17 i hope forex is not a big issue to them.

Chankp, the organic noodle is a new venture and expansion on production has just completed. Management guidancre is to take 3 years to spin it off. While waiting for meaningful numbers to kick in, the focus will still very much on plastic segment. My opinion.

VenFx, home work sharing.

Worth to note that Taiwan Ares Green has traditional cycle of higher revenue for Q2, Q3 and Q4. As for profit, Q2 and Q3 consistently show higher numbers.

With latest announcement of increasing holding in ares green by 11.42%, i expect the Q3 and Q4 will be super good one (provided singapore segment don't kacau.)

Well agreed. The usual norm of raw mat price fluctuation (as it happened again in Q1 2017), forex, and once in a while impairment are things that affecting Thong Guan bottom line since many many years back and will continue to do so in future.

While the management continue to moderate or minimize those factors, the real solid organic growth has kicked in.

2nd nano line will probably start contributing in Q3 17 to further push the gross and net margin.

"No body likes to wait,but that's exactly what it requires now :)"kai8994


Posted by kai8994 > Jun 6, 2017 11:53 AM | Report Abuse

I think the management has talked a lot about the outlook, the new prod lines will only start in September. And Kenanga has upgraded their TP to RM5+ after the latest quarterly result.

The management has already done what they can in expanding the business operation. No body likes to wait, but that's exactly what it requires now :)

Hi Chan, How do you think latest Q report?

Posted by chankp7010 > Jun 6, 2017 11:23 AM | Report Abuse

Yistock please write something about TGuan latest QR. If TGuan QR is poor, fair or good, we can at least do some judgment based on what you have to say. Thank you in advance.

target 0.41