Not a good sign to coming quarterly results! Or it is just the market!

Why Cassava while other planters have not considered this planting?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-23/as-el-nino-exits-la-nina-looms-and-promises-her-style-of-mayhem

Valuation was done for the plantation assets. Spin off is on the cards! Windfall for MKH shareholders. If can be indicated from the below statement, it is RM700 million or RM1.65 per share.

"Chen hinted that the group may soon finalise the acquisition of a 2,000ha plantation land in a low cost area. He said the existing 15,900ha land cost only RM400 million when the group first bought it, but was worth RM1 billion in the previous financial year ended Sept 30, 2015 (FY15) and could be worth as much as RM1.1 billion in the current year."

MKH said to revise FY16 FFB production up 20% from original target of 413,000.
CPO yield to exceed 6 mt/ha in FY16. Amazing!
Planting Year/ Ha/ Age/ Status
2008/ 3,800/ 8/ mature
2009/ 5,200/ 7/ mature
2010/ 4,300/ 6/ mature
2011/ 1,100/ 5/ mature

The Land is located about 75 km by road from Kota Samarinda (the Capital of East Kalimantan Province). The Land is easily accessible by land transport and is approximately 2 hours drive from Samarinda on state road and a stretch of earth road.

The Land covers an area of approximately 15,942.60 hectares. The Land is generally flat with very slight undulation and the soil and climate conditions are suited for oil palm cultivation. The Land has 2 small rivers passing through and is ideal as a source of water for the future oil processing mill. In addition, the main river known as Sungai Mahakam provides an ideal transportation mode to ship out the crude palm oil. Currently, the Land comprises mainly of ‘belukar’ and shrubs and progressive clearing of the Land for the planting of oil palm trees is in progress. Currently, approximately 80 hectares of oil palm nursery has been established.

PT Khaleda has also engaged a professional plantation managing firm to assist in the plantation development of the Land in addition to its own management team comprising of personnels with many years of experience in the oil palm plantation sector in Indonesia. The MKHB Group currently owns and manages several hundred acres of oil palm plantation in Peninsular Malaysia with its first venture in year 1995. In addition, the Executive Chairman of MKHB has more than 18 years of experience in managing oil palm plantation.

This finance minister is doing his work.
Indonesia plans to remove capital gains tax on sovereign bonds. http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/indonesia-plans-remove-capital-gains-tax-sovereign-bonds

Brodjonegoro said he expects the planned tax amnesty bill to be passed by parliament this month.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-17/indonesia-turns-to-singapore-s-temasek-as-model-for-investment

Golden Agri-Resources, Indonesia’s largest palm oil producer, anticipates El Nino to last longer than initially expected and will likely cut the company’s production by 10 and 15 percent this year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-16/world-s-top-palm-producer-is-latest-to-highlight-el-nino-impact

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/plantation-and-og-bright-spots-stock-market

‘Rare case these days to have an upgrade story:’
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-15/indonesian-bonds-turn-top-asia-performers-on-rating-upgrade-hope

This way to collect more revenue! http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/business/indonesia-tells-78-names-mentioned-panama-papers-correct-tax-reports/

Good progress! http://www.reuters.com/article/france-palmoil-idUSL5N1892TL

U.S. sees 75 percent chance La Nina will arrive by 2016's end
Pacific phenomenon often means more Atlantic hurricanes
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-12/la-nina-may-replace-fading-el-nino-by-summer-hurricane-season-io4azsjd

Analysts do not fancy a company with slow turnover of land but MKH runs sustainable and steadily growing businesses.

0146 GMT [Dow Jones] After a very challenging year in 2015, palm oil companies will record a pick-up in earnings in 2016 as palm oil prices will average higher this year, boosted by El Nino, says BMI Research in a note. "However, the improvement will be limited as higher prices will be partially offset by lower palm output and rising costs." It adds that BMI Research maintains its bullish outlook on palm oil companies on a multi-month basis, as higher palm oil prices and relatively cheap valuations among large players boost share prices. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com; Twitter: @lucy_craymer)

When no or very few analysts want you to buy. Then shop quietly.

Malaysian age profile is average 27. Spending with convenient and style is the way forward.

Positive about this venture with Family Mart. But still too rich a valuation. Waiting for right time!

Do hope to see it generates very positive operating cash flow both from property and plantation.

Expect the property unbilled sales to drop. If it comes out otherwise then you have bonanza.

Including FX gain will be at least 10 sen. IDR/USD up 4% this quarter against 6% in the preceding quarter.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-11/s-p-positive-on-indonesia-economy-reforms-finance-minister-says

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/05/12/el-nino-drying-out/

Would be happy to see IDR to reach 12,000!

See how resilient IDR is!
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDIDR:CUR
Good for MKH's debts in USD.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-04/indonesia-growth-fails-to-pickup-in-setback-to-jokowi-reforms
But the IDR remains resilient after this news. Good sign!

Nothing going on. A fellow decided to sell MKH shares has instructed his broker to do so and coincidentally a fund manager, having an account in a securities firm that the broker is in, finds its a value buy at this price level. There you go a cross transfer of 1,000,000 shares today.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/malaysias-april-1-30-palm-oil-exports-fall-56-mm-its

Earnings sustainable? Plantation should do better with higher CPO price and higher sales quantities. IDR gained against USD by 4% in Q2 compared to 6% in Q1. Decline in unbilled property sales is expected due to fewer launches which should reduce property earnings visibility. EPS in Q2 to be around 10 sen which is quite decent.

Jakarta. Indonesia's exports of palm oil and palm kernel oil in March fell 24 percent to 1.74 million metric tons from the previous month, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said in a statement on Tuesday (26/04).
In March, Indonesia exported 429,910 metric tons of palm oil and palm kernel oil to India, 313,060 metric tons to European Union countries, and 62,890 metric tons to Bangladesh, the industry body said.
Production dropped to 2.32 million tonnes in March from 2.47 million tonnes a month earlier, while ending stocks in Indonesia fell to 3.02 million metric tons in March from 3.44 million metric tons a month earlier.
Reuters

Sell In May And Go Away?

4 main current property projects. It is unlike the past but the take up rates are encouraging.
- Saville Cheras
- Kajang East
- Saville @ D'lake
- Hillpark @ Shah Alam
This year to launch close to RM1 billion projects.

0442 GMT [Dow Jones] Malaysian palm oil futures jump in morning trade on Tuesday, rebounding from losses a day ago, as improving exports support the market. Malaysia's palm-oil exports during the April 1-25 period are estimated to have risen 0.4% from the previous month to 889,944 metric tons, cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services said Monday. "Palm oil shipments from Malaysia showed rising export demand, even with an export tax in place," says a Kuala Lumpur-based trader. The palm oil contract for July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rises 11 ringgit to trade at 2666 ringgit per ton. It settled at 2655 ringgit per ton on Monday. (vibhuti.agarwal@wsj.com)

0231 GMT [Dow Jones] Fitch Ratings on Tuesday improved its outlook for the Asian palm oil sector as prices for crude palm oil increase, leading to higher operating cash flows and boosting firms' credit profiles. The ratings agency said its outlook on the sector remains muted, but improving with expectations that crude palm prices will be higher than in 2015 due to steady demand and lower production in major producers Indonesia and Malaysia. Due to extreme dry weather last year that hit crop production, industry analysts predict the first fall in output in 15 years in Indonesia, the world's top producer of the edible oil. An increase in domestic consumption will also boost global prices, Fitch said. One factor to watch will be crude oil prices, a drop in which could drag crude palm prices down again given the high correlation between the two, said Fitch. (sara.schonhardt@wsj.com)

0950 GMT [Dow Jones] The Jakarta Composite Index ends Friday up 0.2% at 4914.74, outperforming other Southeast Asian indexes, which are mostly down on a negative U.S. overnight lead. In Indonesia, banks are mostly up, helping support the index, while losers include heavy industry and a smattering of other sectors. Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS.JK) is among the gainers, rising 3.7%, while Bank Mandiri (BMRI.JK) rises 1% and Telekomunikasi Indonsia (TLKM.JK) gains 1.5% after reporting earnings. XL Axiata (EXCL.JK) and Vale Indonesia (INCO.JK) fall 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively. (jake.watts@wsj.com; @jmwatts_)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-21/commodities-make-a-comeback-as-bad-weather-meets-chinese-demand

The Executive Chairman of MKH said the impact of El Nino is expected to be minimal to the plantation which is located at the equator with adequate rain fall. But not sure how true is this statement which was made in January 2016.

Hottest Agriculture Trade Brings Record Volume, Fund Buying
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-18/hottest-agriculture-trade-brings-record-volume-fund-buying

Commodities Post Best Rally Since August as Citi Sees Gains
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-19/commodities-head-for-best-rally-since-august-as-citi-sees-gains

JAKARTA: Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) production is expected to fall to its lowest level in 13 months in March as a drought caused by an El Nino weather event continues to curb output, according to a Reuters survey.

March CPO production could fall for a seventh month in a row to 2.15 million tonnes, according to the median estimate in a survey of three industry associations and one of the country's largest planters.

That would be down from 2.30 million tonnes in February, and the lowest monthly output by the world's top palm oil producer since February 2015.

Indonesia's annual palm oil output is expected to fall to about 32.1 million tonnes this year, which would be the first decline since 1998, Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said last month.

"Production up to June will remain at low levels due to El Nino. Hopefully with the improvement in rainfall volumes through mid-year, palm fruit production will start to normalise and in August production can start taking off," said Sahat Sinaga of the Indonesia Vegetable Oil Industry Association (GIMNI).

Indonesia's CPO exports in March are expected to be 1.90 million tonnes, down from 2.01 million tonnes in February, the survey showed.

The Indonesian Estate Crop Fund Agency president director Bayu Krisnamurthi told reporters on Monday that the country exported 7.42 million tonnes of palm products in the January to March quarter.
Palm oil stockpiles are expected to drop to 2.59 million tonnes, from 3.63 million tonnes in February, according to the survey.

GAPKI said last month that Indonesia exported 2.29 million tonnes of palm oil and palm kernel oil in February. The group's data for March has not been released yet.

The Reuters survey comprises contributions from GAPKI, GIMNI, Indonesia Palm Oil Board and PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources & Technology Tbk, one of the largest listed palm oil companies. - Reuters

Simply the yield does not justify. Their businesses are capital extensive which drains its cash flow. Very positive if one is prepared to hold for long term 3 to 5 years. Can consider for your kids' investment. Malaysian's version of Nestle in the making.

紙包不住火!

The latest data from a US climate agency said there was a 60% chance that El Nino “sibling” La Nina – which in Malaysia causes heavier than normal rainfall – will happen sometime from October to Decem­ber.
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016/04/17/too-little-water-then-too-much/

Permit ban by Indonesia will worsen CPO supply, food may become expensive
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/04/18/permit-ban-by-indonesia-will-worsen-cpo-supply/

Malaysia's palm oil exports during the April 1-15 period likely rose 7.3% from the previous month to 484,271 metric tons, cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services said Friday.

Open for Sale – Maple (New Launch), Meranti
Sold Out – Cherry III, Cherry I, Cherry II, Olive 8, Pines

The last phase double storey terrace 490 units Maple is undertaken by Panahome-MKH JV.
http://www.hillparkshahalamnorth.com/masterplan.php

Growth in supply capped?
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/indonesia-issue-moratorium-new-palm-oil-concessions

I love QL. It is another Nestle in the making. Barrier to competitors are high. Solid business model and inelastic to up and down in economy. But will only consider when the price is below RM4 which will then make the yield more attractive. Don't think the price will move a lot as it is already very rich in valuation.

One will be getting more anxious of not getting a slice in MKH. Assets in MKH are getting much more valuable and attractive.
- Global central banks are easing. Singapore just did this morning. Good to commodity prices with weakened currencies.
- Yesterday China showed good data, better outlook. It means steady and growing demand.
- World bank expects Indonesia's economy to expand steadily this year. IDR will be resilient against USD.
- Crops output are in 'damaged control' modes over the extreme weather conditions.

Investors seem to dislike recent corporate move. QL still rich in its valuation.