A positive trading day to end this gloomy week. In spite of all the bad things that has happened (cukai makmur included), I hope this counter can start to rebound towards RM6 before ex-date (my very conservative fair value). Let's hope next week's Supermax QR is report is good, can't wait. :)

Yep very likely below RM5 after ex-date
What surprises me more is the sluggishness of the market. Our economy should be on the recovery track, but most counter in my portfolio is setengah mati. Blame on cukai makmur? I think it's more than that.

Investment banker's report are useful to the extent they disseminate info that most layman could understand. However I wouldn't put too much weight on their buy/sell/hold call. Whoever has gotten rich on listening to IB's call alone? I've received regular IB's target price over the past few years. Most of their call are hit or miss, like a coin toss.

There's an obvious risk of buying a down-trending stock in the short run. We do not when the price will rebound. So you're holding on stocks that are decreasing in value. It becomes a long term FD because you don't want to sell to realised the loss.

My advice for all those accumulating this counter is set a portfolio target (say 20% of the total portfolio), at a risk level you're comfortable with (if you can really tolerate very high risk, the target will approach 100% of total portfolio, but I don't recommend it. There are other counters to invest). Buy at fixed price increment to avoid overshooting your target. Try not to go beyond your target because you're taking on too much risk (according to your risk preference).

@newbie8080 I only trade at most 20% of my Harta shares, the rest is put into the freezer. Harta is at most 30% of my portfolio. It's a lot but I did not go all in into this counter.

Otherwise, my investment strategy is very conservative, my returns are low but stable. I only trade a little if prices are to my favour. Otherwise I leave them alone. When I was younger, I like to go all-in into tech stocks (high return but high risks) but nowadays I usually go for safer blue-chip counters (still not safe from cukai makmur).

There a plenty of opportunity for me to cut loss on Harta, but I think it is fundamentally a good company and now there isn't much room to fall.

Will plan to add more if prices do fall below RM5.

Bang_miskin is busy with work today takde masa nak main saham.

@Anxious Sometimes I also doubt myself on whether I am making the right decision. Every time I doubt myself. I remind myself that I always have the choice to either cut loss right now and exit, or wait it out and buy it whenever price falls to new low. I always end up with the latter option every time (well occasionally I trade when price move in my favour).

Why? Because all the evidence I have to this point tells me that Harta is an undervalued company. While they may not be the most bang for the buck (e.g. Kossan has a better return) they are (1) in a strong fiscal position (so does all glove counters), (2) they have a good reputation of managing the company, and (3) increased health awareness due to the pandemic sustain glove demand into the near future, coupled with (4) poor glove and market sentiments (thanks cukai Makmur), prices are at a bargain. To me, investing in a glove counter right now is probably the best long-term investment decision I could think of right now (Calvin Teng disagrees with me, he is banking on plantation). Most people think I am a crazy since prices are currently spiraling downwards.

Of course there is always the possibility that I am wrong (I am wrong plenty of time, that's why I'm still miskin). Maybe glove counter is a poor long term investment, who knows. But if I can read the future that well, I should've bought bitcoins when they are below RM100 a piece a decade ago.

NatsukoMishima With China challenges harta will drop below rm 3 !
______________________________________________________________________
Perhaps so, but the effect goes both ways. If you read Aminvest report:
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/AmInvestResearch/2021-11-09-story-h1593748058-Glove_3Q21_Earnings_Wrap.jsp

"Secondly, there is sign that inefficient players have started to make loss. For example, Blue Sail Medical have registered net loss of RMB22.9m in 3Q2021 which we believe is due to the decline in ASP for gloves. Note that Blue Sail Medical is a major China gloves producer with estimated 5% market share of global medical gloves supply. Coupled with the scarcity of power supply in China as winter approach, we expect less competition from China at current low level of ASP at below USD35 per 1,000 pieces of nitrile gloves."

@Anxious Most counters in Bursa went red today. Today's trading is only good for people looking to buy at dip. I was happy to buy some Maybank shares at 8.00, only for it to fall below that.

Given current sentiments, not sure it could run up to RM6.

"As I said never buy any stock in anticipation of future profit."
Then why tiap2 hari pagi sampai petang recommend AYS dan Hiaptek? Kalau bukan untuk future profit, nak derma bagi CEO makan angin ke?

Tangan kiri cakap X, tangan kanan buat Y.

@casanwk For the past few trading days I observed a sharp spike in price followed by a gradual sell-off. I am just guessing here, but someone (large funds?) may be sapuing this counter big time, followed by lot's of small volume sales (retailers take profit/cut loss?). Since someone is accumulating big time, price should remain quite stable, even increasing for the time being. But when this special someone stop accumulating, prepare for a fall just like other glove counters.

PS: Please don't invest based on my kaki-lima-tilik-analisis. There's a good chance I may be observing patterns when there is none.

Thanks @jolynce, there's always a chance to buy low. Today Harta is performing well, partly because of dividend, and partly because ESG risks was reduced in light of recent news (credit to @biscuitboy96 link)

Another spike at 2.54pm, followed by a sell-off by proft takers. There is definitely interest in this counter. I suspect they may be big funds. Just one time sapu the counter, not even looking for bargains.

Big purchase at 10:20am. Sold some at RM5.86. Meskipun untung very2 sikit, tapi today lunch can tambah telur.

Noticed trend for the past few trading days that there is a series big purchase around 9:30 to 10:30am, followed by selldown in the afternoon. If this trend continues, can made some small profit day-trading.

Curious trend though.

Let them RSS. Harta is already at pre-pandemic price range. If they want to push down below that, my response is, "silakan." They are doing some of us a favour because we are planning to buy more when prices dip.

I do not know enough about forced labour issue, so no point for me talking about it. Several glove-makers have been banned for forced labour, so it is normal for investors to be concerned about Harta being on the chopping block. Being investigated requires reasonable suspicion of forced labour, however being indicted requires sufficient appropriate evidence of forced labour. (Sufficient = having enough evidence to reasonably conclude that forced labour is taking place. Appropriate = company's forced labour policy is directly responsible for the said worker's grievance).

Appropriate evidence can be quite tricky. One example of forced labour involves involuntary work. Let's say due to increased demand for gloves, workers worked overtime to meet a certain quota. It would be forced labour if workers are not given the choice to work normal hours. But if would not be forced labour if workers have the choice to work normal hours, but choose to work overtime to earn extra wages.

Finding "sufficient appropriate evidence" requires much more than just "reasonable suspicion". So being investigated does not mean an automatic ban in the future. My gut feeling is that the chance of a ban is low, but I do not rule it out completely.

As an employee myself, I take this matter seriously. It is not okay to mistreat workers even if other companies are do it (so called standard industry practice). I cannot comment further because I do not know the specific accusations. If in the near future, Harta really kena ban because of forced labour findings by CBP, then Harta should rectify this issue asap.

Waiting for uncle to announce, "why Genetec is undervalued and why you should buy it"

Agree @Harry Mak, which is why I am still invested in Harta. With the windfall profit, many glove companies are flush with cash. What matters in the coming year is how to put the money to good use. As long as Harta's manages the company well, I will continue topping up with my extra income.

Just to clarify that I am not saying that financial analyst report is of no use. In fact it is very useful especially on the market conditions (eg ASP trend, effects of cukai makmur) and where the company's finacial position is heading in the near future. Most if not all of my talking points come from IB analyst reports. However do not take their target price as gospel. If you invest based solely on their target prices, you're going to bleed badly at some point.

Also don't only rely on one financial analyst's report, read a few, and come to your own judgement. Just like any news infomation or facebook/whatsapp posts, if you rely only on one source of info, you'll be easily misled.

I do not know how these financial analyst come up with their target prices ( I am no financial analyst), but to me their analysis seems more to do with current share price than some financial formula or some mathematical framework. In the past week or so Harta price fluctuate around RM5.75 to RM6. Since most recent QR is slightly above market expectation, they use assign numbers towards the higher end such as RM6 or RM6.25.

Unless you know how these financial analyst arrive to their numbers, always take their word with a grain of salt. I started invested in Harta when target prices were around RM13 when share price was RM10. Good value right? Haha I kena teruk2.

If you want up to date "target price," Bang_Miskin Kaki Lima (TM) A.N.A.L.-isis can provide to you here free of charge! Ya percuma, no strings attached! Just need to reached from my you-know-where! Bang miskin just like to omong2 kosong, partly because he's a little sour with his Harta paper loss!

@risekita8 Supermax already experienced such a terrible selloff in the past few days (CBP ban) that a technical rebound will bound to happen sooner or later. We still don't know how material the CBP ban will affect supermax, but to me supermax is oversold.

@tillylovers Why would you want to buy Harta is you are worried that your investment is totally burnt? Totally burnt very very unlikely unless Harta's boss made several fatal mistakes in managing their profit. Will Harta reach RM6 within this year? I really don't know. I am very bad at reading short term price movement. My guess is poor sentiment will continue to press down on price, but upcoming QR from other glove counters may shed more light on their performance under falling ASP. A good QR report from other glove counters could help Harta share price.

@Anxious don't worry, like @jolynce most of us suffered paper losses from touching glove stocks. I was wrong thinking that glove will rebound six months ago (Delta surge). I was wrong that glove would remained above RM7. That all changed when Harta boss announced that ASP falls faster than expected. I am only holding this stocks because I believe that this counter is undervalued, and I expect profit to stabilised at a level higher than the prepandemic level. I could be wrong about that to...

Investing is always a gamble. There are safer gambles (banking) and riskier ones (tech). Just depends on how much return one wants at a risk level they could afford.

Surprise "windfall tax" are worse than high corporate tax (Malaysia's corporate tax is already some of the highest in Asia). Businesses like a predictable environment with no surprise grab from the govnerment. Sometimes I think gomen policies are run by primary schoolchildren... sorry I take that back, many schoolchildren have more common sense than gomen people.

If price maintains around RM5.75 for the next two weeks, a 35 dividend payout will reduce the price to RM5.40. If price continues to drop, very likely can buy below RM5.

The poor sentiment on gloves may continue to worsen especially when we expect profit to fall in the coming two-three quarters. Someday you feel you've bought at an excellent price, only for the price to fall the very next day! Happened to me because I was happily accumulating Harta around ~RM7, until they announced that ASP is falling faster than expected (mati ler!). Once profits began to stabilised (hopefully higher than pre-pandemic), the poor sentiment may fade away.

@newbie8080, that I know, but I am greedy :P

Of the Top4, Kossan seems to be doing quite well.

@jolynce, I had the opportunity to sell at around RM5.92 (missed the RM5.95), but I was busy with work and 15 minutes later was around RM5.78, alamak!

Anxious: Harta made 10x that at 900m dividend and 35 sen dividend and trending downwards. Silly isnt it?

I also learned the hard way that while a company's fundamentals matter in the long run, sentiments reign supreme the short run. Yet I still believe that one can still profit in the long run if you buy and hold an undervalued counter, and allow the sentiment to pass.

Right now gloves counters such as Topglove, Kossan and Comfort are terribly cheap (Supermax is also very very cheap but one must account for the CBP ban). As a long term investor, it pays to buy and hold some of these glove counter (I do not recommend going all in, investing in gloves counters is still a risky gamble, especially given current sentiments).
_________________________________
Ex Dividend Date Nov 18, 2021 *

Payout Date Dec 02, 2021 *

That should be correct. In my case, it take another three days for the dividend to reached my account.

oskchoon Whoever bought yesterday closed at RM 5.75 were the smart ppl..

Harta price fluctuates like a madperson. Probably more to gambling instinct than smarts.

Early morning solid performance followed by large selling pressure. Missed my chance to take early profit.

Yes the decline from previous quarter may be large, but once you take these into account:
(1) Harta was temporary shutdown (2-3 weeks?) due to EMCO,
(2) Production was at below capacity (was it 70-80%?) to comply with SOP procedures,
(3) Falling ASP (no suprise there!)
(4) Harta previous QR was larger due to carriy forward profit from backorders

Then results are in line with market expectation. Some may even consider it good.

@jolynce must give credit to you too. You mentioned that Harta's QR follows Kossan's, so just based on my kaki lima analysis, I arrived at around 1B forecast. haha!

Okay website updated. Confirmed Harta QR result is out. To me it is within or slightly above market expectation. Let's see how the market reacts this afternoon.

@gemfinder, don't worry if you think it is very bad, you are welcome to sell. We waiting for opportunity to accumulate low.

Agree with @menotassassin. previous quarter higher than expected due to carried forward, but at the same time if QR is at 500m, it is not going to be good (to me below market expectation)

If @myinvestor info that PAT is 914m, it isn't too bad (close to 1billion but not too far away). within (and perhaps slightly above) market expectation.

All glove counters trending down today. I believe the surprise prosperity tax is partly responsible for the downward trend.

For Harta's dividend, we expect to be around 39sen based on 60% of previous EPS.

As for Harta's QR, market expect Harta to follow Kossan's, which is around 50% drop from the previous quarter. So at ~2billion profit in the previous quarter, market expect Harta's profit to be around 1billion this coming quarter. If profit is significantly higher than 1billion, expect price to soar. If profit is much lower than 1 billion, then price will drop like a stone.

On second thought, buying Maybank at current price (RM7.99) is a better short term decision. Maybank is expected to recover soon, while buying Harta right now is a bit of a gamble, especially when weighted down by poor sentiment.

Glove producer like Hong Seng entering the market just shows that there's profit still to be made in the glove sector. Don't forget the other bigger picture: China, and Thailand are expected to expand and eat into Malaysia's market share. Yes glove sentiment still under immense selling pressure, and I hope Harta's next QR will reverse the current sentiment.

For those still believing in Harta, use this opportunity to accumulate. I wasn't able to do so since it makes no sense to sell my recovery stocks at current price. All kena hantam cukup2 by "cukai makmur" (nama bagus tapi polisi teruk!)

Already dropped a lot on compared to the past two trading days. I guess some people got the news on late Friday afternoon and unload a whole bunch before closing time.

Below RM8 Maybank can buy. Sahan harimau manyak stabil.

Okay thanks @menotassassin, currently Harta isn't looking too good maybe because of the prosperity tax. Waiting for next QR to bring some certainty, and hopefully a rebound to RM6 (unlikely given current sentiment)

Genting also affected by cukai makmur?

Quick question, are we expecting a QR announcement this afternoon?

Don't worry, let us wait for the next general election to "tell" these gomen people what we think about their chukai Makmur

Cukai makmur is only a one time tax, not a permanent increase in tax rate? Hopefully the gomen doesn't come with another cukai makmur versi II in the following year's budget

@Colgate agree some, disagree some. Yes companies, especially profitable one can afford to pay higher tax, but that translate to lower return for shareholders. Normal folks like us will get hit with lower share prices. Not all of us are millionaires, you meet normal aunties and uncles in pasar malam? Many of them buy a few lots here and there. Play it right and bursa offers a higher return than your usual FD.

In addition profitable companies will find ways to avoid paying higher tax. I don't know much about Malaysian tax laws, but surely they are looking out for loopholes and ways to qualify for deductions and lower their tax burden. More ambitious companies will be seeking a way out from Malaysia (to countries with lower corporate tax), or at the very least create shell companies in tax haven countries to evade taxes.

Why not be fair to all companies? A flat tax percent rate to all companies.

@jolynce Good luck with your strategy. I am hopeless with detection daily fluctuation, so I cannot offer any advice. I mostly buy and hold for long term. Will expect my Maybank (biggest company in Bursa) to take a morning hit. Can't say about gloves, even I cannot predict what will happen in the coming weeks.

@jolynce prosperity tax won't be good for any large, profitable companies. I have never heard of any market that likes higher tax, so I agree with your prediction that it won't be good.

Some people think this is a fair approach. Yes it is fair to all industries, but unfair to large, profitable companies. If you hold shares of large companies (like me LOL!) you will get hit by "prosperity tax"

Bang miskin is partial towards consumption tax like GST (but jib kor name oredi busuk, so can forget about it).

Makmur tax is really negative for all large and profitable companies. I am in favor of a flatter corporate tax (i.e. similar corporate tax rate for all companies).

A 39sen dividend is the highest Harta will offer in a long time. If you want the cash dividend, buy it before ex-date (Harta will announce the date). If you are not seeking the dividend, buy it after ex-date because it will be 39sen cheaper. If you learn Modigliani-Miller theorem in finance, it doesn't matter too much whether you buy before or after ex-date :)

I just hope Harta's QR is similar to Kossan's (1billion profit as mentioned by @Ryan83). Anything lower than 1 billion profit, we may see price dipping near or below RM5 (which is good if you plan to accumulate for long term investment).

@Thirai Thiraviam Looks like you are planning for long term investment? In the next 6 months or so, glove is still downtrending while Genting is still on an uptrend (tourism industry is slowly recovering). I still have a good portion of Genting, slowly selling off to accumulate Harta when price dips. I hope you're not going all in into Harta, it is still very risky move in my opinion.

@menotassassin @Ryan83. Sounds like a progressive corporate tax scheme. I don't know how I feel about it. On one hand, I am partial towards a flat corporate tax (fair to both large and small companies) but on the other hand, 33% isn't too excessive (in comparison, US corporate tax is higher, but large US companies are experts at avoiding corporate taxes).... um on second thought, it's still quite high for a developing country like Malaysia. My biggest concern with high corporate tax is that it encourages larger and more profitable companies to move towards countries with lower corporate tax.

@anxious I know Harta has a 60% payout ratio, but I'm not sure what that's based on. Matcha Green Tea may be right, but such info can be easily verified by comparing Q1 2021 dividend with its previous earnings (Q4 2020) here:

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/5168.jsp

computed Q1 2021 = Q4 2020 EPS* 60% = 32.75*0.6 = 19.65 (announced rate 19.75)
computed Q4 2020 = Q3 2020 EPS* 60% = 29.31*0.6 = 17.59 (announced rate 17.70)

Yep, the math checks out!

We don't really know if price could maintain at RM6. Two-three months ago, I would have said the bottom is RM7. Now with two worsening QR ahead, I think within the next 6 months, price may test RM5, and occassionally dip below that. I still believe Harta is worth more than RM6 though (my TP closer to RM7).

Anyway I hope that the next QR (released next week?) will be good, rallying price above 6.

@casanwk, don't really know for sure. On some day, there's a big rally in the morning but drop back in the afternoon. On other days, the rally continues into the afternoon. There are also days when price jump at the last half hours of trading.