@jolynce, point taken. Let's see if Harta could break through 6.3+
@Anxious, when the price reaches its bottom, you can average down. Of course nobody knows when will we reached "the bottom". Had I known earlier, would have invested now instead of a few months ago.

Not bad @jolynce, from 6.02 to 6.25, that's a 3.8% in gross profit.
My average cost is RM7.5, so I am waiting for at least RM6.50 to "cut loss" :)

A good start for the week. From RM6.02 to RM6.20. Perhaps the chance to top up below RM6 is smaller than I've expected.

Responding to @risekita8, I am actually quite glad that glove counters start to move in different directions, because it means that price movement are not purely driven by sentiments alone. Since the pandemic started, glove counters are driven purely by the overall market sentiment, in which prices essentially moves in the same direction, and when one company's QR affects all other glove counters too. My logic is that even when all top4 are potential good buy, why bother when they all moved in the same direction?

Since the past week or so, I've noticed that the price movement of glove counters started to move independently from one another (don't get me wrong it is still heavily driven by pure sentiment), this is good because a company's fundamental started to matter more. When prices are moving depending on a company's fundamental, it makes more sense to pay attention to each company's expansion plans, how they deal with lower ASP and increased competition from abroad. I may have to start looking into other counters. My biggest concern now is which counter can best weather the next two-three quarters of declining ASP. While I am currently betting on Harta, I'm also interested in the QR report of Supermax (cash rich), Topglove (lifting of ban by US CBP) and the often forgotten Kossan.

@jolynce don't know about Gtronic, but I have dabble with semiconductor industries such as Inari and MPI. I bought because of a shortage for semiconductor chips. Invest at the beginning of 2021 and took some profit after a few months (around May). Had I kept for another three, four months instead this counter, could have reaped another ~30% return, oh well, hindsight 20/20.

RM6.50 is not a necessity, but it would be nice. I could sell a portion, free up some cash, and be ready to buy again when prices dip below 6 (or potentially 5 next month :) )

Good luck with your trade @jolynce, hope it could break RM6.50 before the next QR comes out.

I am a very bad trader, but occasionally when I bought too much of a certain counter (Harta) I plan to trim it down when prices are favorable. If I want to trade, I would choose one with a positive sentiment. (Tech stocks are the current favorite, but prices are already at historical high).

Currently Harta seems decent for trading, but I worry that the next QR could cause price to plunge to new lows. Still if the next QR causes prices to plunge close to RM5. I will be queuing to buy at RM5.

No hurry to purchase at above RM6. Poor glove sentiment may potentially push price below RM6. Can enter around RM5.70-RM5.90 or when transaction volume is low. In the last two days, most high volume purchase are made early in the morning (around 10am), so I suspect foreign funds may be accumulating.

@newbie8080 between 2010-2019 glove counters are a great investment, but the pandemic changes the situation when China enters into the equation. Expect price war in 2022-2023. This is why Harta price is "cheap" because investors are worry China's entry. I think China threat is overblown, which is why I think Harta is a good counter to invest.

Two things I've learned in recent years.
1) Don't follow EPF. EPF holds a large array of stocks from many different industries, and trade a small fraction of its holdings. The investment proceeds are then to employees as dividends. I am not familiar with EPF trading strategy, nor do I really care since its objective and its capacity to trade is very different from mine. I am pretty sure EPF still holds plenty of Topgloves share from pre-pandemic period while most prudent investors would have sold all it when prices reaches historical highs.

2) Take IB analysis with a grain of salt. I am not a professional financial analyst nor an expert in the glove industry. So I rely a lot on IB's insights and analysis. However be very careful with their target price. Bang miskin is a student in economics, and the data analysis in my field is like a sausage-making factory: once you know how it's made, you don't want to eat it. You will be surprised how shoddy some statistical method that goes into it, and for certain analytical method, when you change your estimate in certain ways, you can fit it into any narrative you want.

My advice here is that IB analysis sometimes offers important information and insights, especially to layman like me. But just like anything you read on the internet, you have to learn to think for yourself and don't take every word as gospel. Anyone who invest in gloves know that IB has been giving very lofty TP for gloves when prices skyrocketed (TP of RM10-RM12 for Topglove after share split), but changed their tune when prices tumbled.

Apa worry? Below RM5 can accumulate.

IdleMoney66 51,766,008 Rss on 13 Oct
44,311,800 RSS on 14 Oct

7,454,000 RSS closed
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Thanks for the update. Good to hear that short selling pressure has been reduced.

Agree. For the next week or two, below RM6 is a buy, can take profit above RM6. After next QR report comes out, price reference will shift, whether up or down is anyone's guess.

Wow morning boost! Approaching RM6.25! Other glove counters are recovering too!

The recent rebound gave me some hope because some funds sees value in this counter. I took a very small profit this afternoon and invest in a more stable sector (banking). Now I am not too concerned with the large price movement, if it rises to RM7, I'll take profit (bought some months ago at around RM6.5), if it falls to RM5 and below I'll top up with my spare change (or from selling recovery stocks). Large price fluctuation in both directions makes this counter ideal for trading.

EPF did dispose last Friday, but did they buy any in the last two days of rebound? Have to wait till next week to find out.

ToneeFa: yup agree with pjseow, SpmX coming QR should be ard 500mil+, with dividend ard 0.10

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If dividend is at 0.10 per share, at current price, that makes it one of the highest yield dividend stock. Twice the return of Maybank.

Price movement indicates that some funds see good value in this stock. However poor sentiment still remains. When funds are not accumulating, selloffs put pressure on the price. Before next QR in 2 weeks price will occassionally fall below RM6, good time to accumulate before going up again.

What happens after QR is anyone's guess. What is the prediction on Harta's next QR? At, above, or below market expectation?

@pjseow, does the utilitzation of 65% take into account the 2(3?) weeks shutdown from EMCO?

Anxious, hard to say if price stabilises around RM6. Two months ago, I was pretty convinced that price stabilises at RM7. Look where we are now. :)

On the other hand, large fluctuation in price makes it a good counter for trading. I am not so much of a day trader, but occasionally, I have bought and sold some for a small profit.

What news trigger such sudden price movement?

Contrary to Maybank's recommendation, some institution/funds are clearly mopping up Harta in large quantities.

Morning all,

Interesting price movement. Price shot up 20sen in 15 minutes.

Recent price movement (before QR end of this month) suggests that price may be closed to the bottom (RM6). To me price below RM6 is a buy.

I see, thanks for your explanation @observatory

I have a question for @observatory, why would price war last for one year during 2023 and end around 2024? Wouldn't price war prolong for another year or two, making 2024 (and potentially 2025) earnings below normal?

Responding to @risekita8, I see two groups of investor, one group that is willing to sell at any price (probably due to short selling, or poor glove sentiments) and the other group who believes that Harta fair value is above current market price. For the past few days, I observed sales in small batches (former group, probably retailers and short sellers) followed by occasional large batches (larger funds, possibly EPF)

I would not be surprised that EPF is buying large batches at 4:45pm. We shall see after a couple of days later.

OMG, So many stuck at so high price RM9?
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Around April 2021 when the delta strain surged, glove price did trend upwards, for only a month. Harta went from RM9 to about RM11. Naively thinking that glove prices rebounded, Made my first purchase at RM10. After several purchases, with the last one at RM6, I managed to bring it down to about RM7.5.

It wasn't all that bad. Last year, I bought some at RM13, sold all at RM18. Riding that glove mania was fun.

Looks like you plan to trade more than keeping Harta for long term.
If you plan to trade Harta, RM9 seems very improbable this year, no matter how good the next two QR turns out. It would be lucky to even reached RM7 by year end. If you plan to cut loss, do it during rebounds. If you plan to keep for at least another year, just put it in the freezer, but don't go overboard like I did.

For me I plan to keep Harta for at least another year or two. Started accumulating months ago at RM10. Recently I made the mistake of purchasing way too much during the process of "averaging down price". Very dumb in retrospect. Now I am saddling 40% in gloves, way too much to my liking no matter how profitable gloves will be in the future. Plan to trim to 30% when price reaches RM6, expecting 10-15k loss during the process. I have experienced far greater losses, so this is the bullet I am willing to bite.

Not sure who is buying, but won't be surprised if EPF is mopping up the shares.

Suprising upward trend in light of morning bloodbath. Someone is quietly mopping up at discounted price.

Someone purchasing in large quantities

Given current trend/sentiment, the next QR end of this month may very well be another bloothbath. Good or bad news, price will drop like no tomorrow. Below RM5 a real possibility.

Bang_miskin too optimistic for RM6 this year. Maybe tunggu next year

Anxious if you are investing for long term, average down only when prices reached new lows. For example, you can top up in fixed batches at RM5.5, RM5.0, RM4.5, RM4.0... etc. The amount and increment is up to you, but fair warning, do not go all in into gloves. Your money will get tied up akin to a long term fixed deposit.

Wait Harta TP is RM3.99!? Does that even make any sense? Well done, congrats, the market panicks like no tomorrow!

Start the morning red with a refreshing bloodbath.
10 minutes in and oredi -10sen

Thanks for your explanation @observatory, I did not realised their method was that bad. Weeks ago I was puzzled with their low target price for Topglove (~RM1.68). I wonder why they did not a more reliable method, that is not susceptible to cyclical fluctuation.

The main issue here is that most retailers would not give second thought with the analytical flaws and quickly dispose their shares upon hearing the news. Lots of small volume sales yesterday.

I personally would not go all in Harta. While I think Harta's fair value is above current market price, what if I/we were wrong? Given current sentiment, it is possible to go below RM5. Yes sentiment may improve next year, or it may take much longer, Then what? Keep holding as if you have a long term fixed deposit? Sometimes it is prudent to take a more cautious approach, and diversify into different sector. Don't play the squid game

Bang_miskin is unhappy with the shifting goalpost by these analysts. About a year ago they gave lofty target price of RM26 for Harta. Now RM4.99. Bang_miskin used to rely on these analyst, but now Bang_miskin would still read their analyst, but with a large spoonful of salt.

....We now value the glove players at -1 standard deviation of historical mean (-0.5 standard deviation before).
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I just don't like the way they fudge the numbers. -1 standard deviation translate to 16 percentile worse case scenario. Why not just cut to the chase, apply 2 percent standard deviation (2.5 percentile worse case scenario) and you can drag the price close to RM2.

The methods used by analyst are fishy at best, devious at worse. With their usual 0.5 standard deviation, their target price above the market price, which is not credible given the current market sentiment on gloves. So they just shift the goalposts to 4.99, it will take awhile, but eventually the price will get there (below RM5).

With their (IMO irresponsible) analyst, they drive Harta and Kossan price down. Mission accomplished?

Kossan and Hartalega going red today?

Gloves still very weak?
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Maybank research downgrade Kossan and Harta to sell. Going from bad to worse.

Only hope is upcoming QR from Harta end of this month. If QR report is below market expectation, another round of selloff.

Maybank recommends sell for Harta and Kossan (previously Topglove). Bloodbath for these two counters today.

Surprised with Maybank's recommendation since it was considered one of the top buy stocks for 2021. They mentioned that price could fall below pre-pandemic level. I personally don't think it is likely from the news I've heard... but yeah sentiment is from bad to worse.

Agree with goody99. While I think Harta is worth more than RM6, no point paying more than RM6. Price below RM6 or even RM5 can buy.

This counter is already in my "buy-it-forget-it" section. If you want to buy for quick profit, seek elsewhere.

Thanks for the news observatory,
While ASP is higher than pre-pandemic levels, there's little info about the profit margin. Will it be the same, higher or lower than pre-pandemic levels? Harta financial report over the coming years will give us more clue. I began to think the pricing of Harta is quite fair, because there is still quite a lot of uncertainty with the market/profit margin after the pandemic.

Pmbtech, Pmbtech
Reminds me of the glove mania back in 2020 when topglove price was approaching RM30 and Harta RM20, it seems like prices could go up forever, but at the back of our mind, we know the pandemic will one day end, and that suddenly occurred when Russia announced their vaksin, then China, then the U.S., glove started to trend downwards very quickly, probably many got burnt. Bang_miskin also kena burnt a little, but sudah take some profit, cannot complain.

Bang_miskin believe one could untung2 besar from Pmbtech, or from SAM or from Genetec. But you have to be careful, a sudden change in sentiments, your investment can go from big paper profit to big paper losses. Bang_miskin's too old and too conservative with money.

Again not a buy/sell call, make your own investment decisions. Bang_miskin just like to lepakking and omong2 kosong.

Today should be the payout day. Mine usually appears in the account 3, 4 days after payout date.

There is still a lot of uncertainty with Harta's performance under declining ASP. So the next QR would be crucial when Harta operates at below capacity (covid measures) + shutdown during EMCO. If QR is above market expectation, price may fly. If QR is below expectation, then matilah... floor opened, likely drop below RM5.

Transaction volume very low. Retailers dumping but nobody is interested. If there is a few big buyers, price may shoot up. Let's see if there is any activity in the afternoon.

All the way down, air terjun.

Don't worry, when the next QR comes out late October, early November, there will be another chance to top up.

The only reason I am not topping up is because I have too much gloves in my portfolio. Already had 40% in gloves, waiting for opportunities to reduce to 30%.

Even if you believed that glove counter is at the bottom, it is more prudent to buy from several counters topglove, supermax, kossan, etc. not to put all biji in one bakul.

today red, had a feeling tomorrow also red.

Yep today red day. Interesting observation regarding EPF purchasing decision. Seem to be accumulating lots of topglove shares.

Hoping for some good news for gloves. Harta price closed around 6 for the past few days.

Today another neutral day. Price remained around 6 for the past few trading days.

Idlemoney66 is just posting RSS position. The higher the number, the larger the short sell position.
Investors short sells when they anticipate the price to go down. Investors do not own these shares, they borrow shares from the broker, sell now, and buy back at a later date to cover their position. If share price do fall as they predicted, they untung after repaying the broker. Even though many of us do not short sell, a larger position indicates poorer market sentiment.

EPF buy stocks in anticipation of higher prices, and sell stocks to lock in profit. Sometimes on the same day you will see EPF buy and sell from the same counter, just like a day-trader. EPF pays annual dividend based on their investment return.