Vaccines and gloves are a pair
They work hand in hand, or rather, hand in gloves
Both also good for everyone

The heart bleeds for Supermx but the head says stay away

SuperMax is oversold stochastically or is it sarchastically?

Green is the color the day. Among the top 4 how can Supermax be denied

New year resolution: pray for a quick resolution to Covid 19, B117 and whatnots. Else got money but no life to spend

What with 'Stay at home', 'Staycation', 'Cruise to nowhere'

The end of the world is nigh
But, somehow, the show goes on

Prevention better than cure

Everyone's hoping for vaccines to work miracles and put an end to Covid 19. Whether it will happen is at least another 2 years away. That is how long it will need to reach herd immunity (70% - 80%)

Meanwhile everyone is missing the elephant in the room
China, with more than 1.4B people have been able to contain Covid 19 not due to vaccines but to a strict enforcement of containment measures.

What are we going to do while waiting for the arrival of vaccines?

Sell high buy lower is the new game in town

Earlier during the first half of 2020 analysts valuation for glove counters were based on conjectured 2022/2023 earnings. Now that glove supply and demand mechanics have become clearer, the analysts have pushed the envelope a bit further. Now valuations are based on 2024/2025 projections.

On Monday Superxax will join KLCI index. Usually the counter will be rewarded with a price rise.
All gloves counters should benefit together
Look forward to a green Monday for all glove stocks

More vaccine rollouts more gloves needed
Glove supply already in serious shortage will be further compounded

Vaccines are over hyped to instill fear among glove investors
In fact vaccines are complementary to glove demand and usage. More vaccinations more gloves required.

The scale and ferocity of the short selling is enormous over here due to limited liquidity.
Even substantial share buybacks cannot withstand their combined attacks

Meanwhile, weak holders should be advised to stay clear of glove stocks.
SHORTING IN PROGRESS.

Let them do their worst. Enjoy the dividends meanwhile.
When the show is over everything will be OK

"All glove factories have oversold their production
Their shares, however, are in net oversold as well."

@Morpheus61, besides stating the obviouc what else can be done

This shorting exercise is so well orchestrated. Attempts started with Macquarie's RM5.45 target price. This effort failed to hold.
Subsequently more resources were committed and post 19 October they have been very successful and are still on a roll. JP Morgan's RM3.50 was definately more effective.

Something is fishy as per the glove counters

All glove factories have oversold their production
Their shares, however, are in net oversold as well.

On the way to Bursa a funny thing happened.

Established glove manufacturers who have been in the game for decades and are currently reaping supernormal profits due to Covid pandemic are rewarded with subnormal share prices the past 2 months.

Yet, some companies that have voiced their intention to manufacture gloves have seen their share prices surged.

A simple test:

Ask yourself when you can fly to say, Australia, without
- having to show proof that you are Covid 19 free
- having to be quarantined for 14 days upon arrival
- having to pay 3 times your usual fare
- having to be quarantined again upon return

That's how long it takes and that's how long gloves will be in abnormal demand.

HONG KONG (Reuters Breakingviews) - Rubber glove makers have rivalled Zoom Video Communications as a popular pandemic trade. A quadrupling in the shares of Malaysia’s Top Glove, the world’s largest producer, values it at $13 billion. Yet its shares have fallen one-third since its $19 billion October peak, leaving it trading at multiples far below even its pre-pandemic average. As investors rush to take profit on Covid-themed trades, they can leave value on the table.
.........
Top Glove’s shares are trading at five times 2021 forecast earnings and a 2022 multiple of nine times – far below its 10-year average of 18 times. The company is working on a Hong Kong listing next year, which could raise more than $1 billion to fund expansion. Investors may have moved on too soon.

At half time Top Glove up 5%
Hope by closing it will double

CNN headlines today:
First came news of a coronavirus vaccine. Now come the scams.

Vaccines may not reach a quarter of the world's people until 2022.

Covid vaccines will make little impact on the devastating winter ahead.

US sees record number of virus hospitalizations.

JP Morgan said otherwise.
Glove demand falling
Glove supply increasing
ASPs dropping

You know Singhs don't die.
Has anyone attended a Singh funeral procession?
They just fade away...

JP Morgan is not infallible. RM3.50 for Top Glove
What a joke.
They did what they did because of ulterior motives.
Accumulate at lower prices was their sole intention.
Sad to say they manage to do their damage last Friday and Monday

Remind us of Barings Bank and Lehman Brothers.

What JP Morgan did is all about $$$$$
It has nothing to do with glove demand or supply; now, near-term or 2022 and beyond
It has also nothing to do with ASPs, either rising or falling
It definately got nothing to do with vaccine roll-outs

When it rains, it pours

Covid 19 can infect same person twice, 6 months apart.
I thought lightning don't strike the same place twice. This pandemic is even more powerful. If sufficient numbers affected then covid 19 will be hard to contain and even much harder to eradicate.

Demand for gloves will be perpetual.

Let Top Glove offer a sizeable state to Intco Medical at say RM10 a share.
See what will happen next
JP Morgan will apply brakes immediately and close all their shorts

Just look at that moron Trump.
Daily many people dying around him but all he is concern about is only his selfish interests. Rather sadistic too in midst of tremendous grieving and suffering.

Hopefully we do not see such types here, rooting for prices to crash

So just sit out another 2 weeks and usher in the new year.
If prices drop, buy more to average down.
Sure to frustrate the short-sellers

Macquarie TP drop from $10 to $5.45 announced on 10 Sept
Knee jerk drop to close at $6.45. Next day recovered strongly and ended at $7.76

JP Morgan's turn should be similar too

It is those warrants issued end 2019 and early 2020 that are problematic to the IBs. Covid took them by surprise and they are bound to lose tons if they were to be exercised.

JP Morgan TP RM3.50
They themself also do not believe it can drop to this price.
It is just a target to frighten retailers to sell.

Presumably they had shorted earlier at RM7.50 or higher.
Imagine buying back at RM6.50 is already RM100 million profit
Anything lower is a bonus.

Covid peak season is during the current Winter up till Feb 2021
Many countries will not have their vaccines by then.
So expect global infections to continue to climb further

The US has lost the war with Covid by its own inaction.
They are desperate for any solution.
All their eggs now on vaccines.
Even if both mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna works it will still be another year before covid can be contained in US

Two wrongs doesn't make it right.

Top Glove must be aware of their shortcomings as per their migrant workers' welfare. As long as appropriate remedial actions are taken should suffice.

Then we can move on

The real issue is the short selling by IBs and their nefarious schemes to achieve their ends

The US CBP also took offense against Felda Global Ventures:

"The WRO is the result of a year-long investigation that revealed forced labour indicators including abuse of vulnerability, deception, restriction of movement, isolation, physical and sexual violence, intimidation and threats, retention of identity documents, withholding of wages, debt bondage, abusive working and living conditions, and excessive overtime. The investigation also raised concerns that forced child labour is potentially being used in FGV's palm oil production process," said CBP.

This is OK
As long it is not about gloves!

20 Jan 2021, Biden officially inaugurated as US President
New focus on strategic supply of PPE, including gloves.
US CBP Withhold Release Order on Top Glove could be lifted then.

8 December Britain rolled out Pfizer vaccination.
A 90 year old lady got her first shot to be followed up with another booster shot 21 days later.

New Covid cases since then:
8 Dec - 12,282 cases
9 Dec - 16,578 cases
10 Dec - 20,964 cases
11 Dec - 21,671 cases
12 Dec - 21,502 cases

Looks like Covid will be around a lot longer

Selling pressure all tied to vaccine arrival
These are still early days
Vaccine production, storage, distribution and acceptance still a long way to go. Meanwhile demand for gloves still increasing MOM.

Look at China. They have contained Covid very well even without vaccines. Intco Medical and Blue Sail, both glove manufacturers, are enjoying healthy share prices the past whole month.

China even have 5 indigenous vaccine candidates under testing.

Anyone wants Musang King at RM3.50 each?

IBs in Bursa have the power to make Musang King durians cheaper than bananas

IBs issue structured warrants
IBs ensure the warrants become worthless before expiry
IBs can short
IBs issue target prices.

How to fail?

There is no suspension of Permitted Short Selling (PSS) on Bursa.
Meant for issuers of structured warrants.
They can still short anytime.

So now it is clear
Top Glove net short position is more than 100 million shares.
So have to buy back, preferably at lower prices.

Hence all the negative sentiments are purposely created, highlighted and oft repeated and recycled.

3 months ago, Top Glove made less profits but share price much higher than $6.90.

When prices come down many will lose money, even among Big funds too.
Hopefully there is no Dostoevsky-type among them.
Fyodor Dostoevsky is one famous gambler who is ONLY happy is he loses!

It is still 2020 but so many already living in 2022 and beyond

Why are Big funds pushing glove stocks down?
Because they are Santa Claus bringing their festive cheer to those who now only wished to buy into glove plays

"You better watch out
You better not cry
Better not pout
I'm telling you why
Santa Claus is coming to town"

Only Big funds can make prices to go up or to go down.
They have vested interests to move either way.
It's a zero sum gain. There will be winners and losers at every price points.
Lately, their intent is to lower prices.