Above is my est based on publicly available numbers. Caveat Emptor!

Inventory @ end-3Q20 = RM532.5m on refined tin px of US$17463/t
Assuming similar vol of inventory @ end-4Q20, inventory gain = (20540/17463-1)*532.5 = RM93.8m for 4Q20.

A similar vol of inventory @ end-1Q21 assuming end-1Q21 refined tin price of US$25000/t would give an inventory gain of (25000/20540-1)(532.5*20540/17463) = RM136.0m for 1Q21.

End-Qtr price based on LME tin cash px.

Yes. Am positive on the Butterworth land. Won't be priced in till 2023-2024 though...

When refined tin price is not trending, smelting profit margin is probably just 2-5% depending on capacity utilisation rate of the smelting plant.

Mining profit margin can remain fat so long as refined tin price is staying at high level as it is now.

Smelting profit would be huge in 4Q20 on inventory gain, and even bigger in 1Q21. However, how much to incorporate into future share price gain is debatable as it may not be sustainable year-in-year-out.

Share price will definitely go up, perhaps to 3.50-4.00? Gua pun tak tahu!

I also assume 300-day of mining only, not 365 days.

Yield of 75% must also be accounted for when converting from tin-in-concentrates to refined tin at the smelting plant.

Dalpinia, my numbers relate to own mines only. The smelting vol is of course much higher, but the margin is much smaller - single digit + inventory gain/loss (depending on direction of refined tin px movement)

According to the Edge article, RHT daily avg production vol is 10,500kg/day and SLT 100-200kg/day. Numbers not mine, only calculations mine, which could be off of course!

Smelting profit tends to be fatter on rising tin price presumably driven by inventory profit. I notice end-3Q 20 inventory was huge, meaning likely substantial inventory gain for smelting in the upcoming 4Q20 earnings announcement. 1Q21 smelting profit should be even fatter on accelerated tin price increase.

RM77.04m b4 tax

Based on the Edge article,

Avg daily production = (10500 + 200)kg or 10.7t
Assume 300 days of mining a year, can expect 2021 annual tin-in-concentrates production of 3210t, which translates into 2407.5t of refined tin assuming 75% yield.

Assuming US$:RM exhange rate of 4.0 and avg refined tin px of US$23000/t (about 25,000 currently in terms of spot px) , mining profit alone would be 2407.5 * (23000 - 15000) * 4 or RM77.04m.

A sensitivity analysis can be easily carried out assuming different values of mining days and average spot px.

Those who know how to calculate the future property development profit from JV with Strait Trading on MSC's existing land pls enlighten us on that. My gut feel says it is going to be huge.

since end-3Q20

Smelting side should sit on huge inventory profit from price increase since

My back-of-envelope calculation of 2021 mine profit:

Tin-in-concentrates:

RHT output 2500t (2288t in 2019)
SLT output 1200t*0.8 (80% stake of about 1200t p.a. when it ceased op in the 80s)
Total output = 3460t
assume 75% yield (70-75% average for SEA according to Britainica) from tin-in-concentrates to refined tin,
Refined tin from own mines = 2595t

all-in-cost of own tin production = USD15k.

If price holds at USD23k on avg for 2021, mining profit alone wud be as follows:

2595 * (25000-15000) * 4 = RM83.0m b4 tax

Those who know the flaw of my assumptions, pls point out so that I can refine my calculations.

I don't know how to calculate the smelting operation's profit. Those who know pls show.

Xxxting, u can sell your expensive ones today and keep the cheaper ones if you do not have the nerve to ride this volatile train.

RSI now offers ample room for appreciation after the recent correction.

May even happen today at the rate it is going...

Likely to challenge recent 2.59-high after CNY

Minimal resistance!

Good flush. Weak holders out

You'll be fine young man

Tried to copy and paste a pretty lady Om chanting picture for u to cool down, but cannot la...

Om...Xxxting...Om

Oops I can't breathe!

Anything is possible in stock market!

Breathe...Om...and BUY!

MSC has a compelling fundamental story, better than 95% of the junks on Bursa. Just need to manage your entry price. Sometimes the power behind a stock will shake the trees hard to shake off the monkeys.

Relax bro...Let's Omm together!

At least the fundamentals is good...

Everyone is a ku-san. Caveat Emptor!

Then tomorrow open low but close on the high note - classic reversal pattern. Wa lau eh talking like a director!

If today px closes at 2.32, RSI would have corrected down to 81.5 - a lot more reasonable than yesterday

Happy investing Fion

Agreed. Hoping for slightly more flush to launch the next surge

Hi Fion, r u Adeline's girl? The only Fion I know...

a few days of correction is actually good for the stock. Once the overbought state is gone, the stock will soar again. Ding didi!

Thanks Dalpinia. Will subscribe for SinChew soon. Have not read chinese newspaper for a long long time!

The Star and the Edge don't have such info la

Dalpinia, whatever you wrote in Chinese all reported in SinChew?

Like the battery angle cos it gives room for imagination. Actually consulted an analyst friend, but he says global demand for battery will only be 60tonnes by 2030 woh...hope his source is off the mark!

can someone explain 1kg of tin-in-concentrates can be turned into how much refined tin in the case of MSC's tin mines and Malaysia in general?

14-day RSI >97 at current px. ST O/B

Just noticed that PT Timah has corrected quite a bit but MSC has hit all-time high. Wondering why?

u go play 10 counters and back it is still stuck at the same price. Should list in museum rather than Bursa!

Results out on 11 or 22 Feb?

It is obvious that major s/h dump entire stake to press down share price, and then buy back via private placement to nominees!

Someone should do a Reddit on KTG ala Gamestop in US

Post removed.Why?

40sen lol