The recent correction is a textbook style bearish divergence sell-off on the back of waning buying momentum. I think the short-term low is established this morning. Expect better trading ahead.

Return of the Jedi!

If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, U will be a man, son!

Om......

I think correction is almost done. Even I am not looking at MSC minute-to-minute - A good sign lol. Busy with PEB, back to watch MSC when it is ready to roar....

managed to get some at 2.63 and 2.65, tried to take sellers when px turns but not quick enough. sigh...

End-4Q20 inventories were RM604.8m vs end-3Q20's RM467.4m suggesting likely even bigger vol tactically hoarded for value appreciation?

I wonder how much of 4Q20 tin price appreciation has been reflected by the just announced 4Q20 results.

From 2019 AR re accounting policy on inventories:

2.16 Inventories

Inventories are stated at the lower of cost and net realisable value.

Cost of trading inventory of refined tin metal is determined on a first-in first-out basis.

Cost of inventories of tin-in-concentrates and tin-in-process which have matching sales
contract for refined tin metal from tin smelting operations, are stated at the value of such
contract less cost for conversion. This value is consistent with cost, as it is the practice of the
tin smelting operations of the Company to buy tin-in-concentrates and sell refined tin metal on
a back to back price basis.

Cost of tin inventories which has no matching sales contract is calculated using the weighted
average cost method less allowance for conversion.

Absorption costing is used in the mining operations to assign costs to tin inventories using the
weighted average cost method which includes both variable and fixed overhead cost
components.

Cost of other inventories comprising stores, spares, fuels, coal and saleable by-products is
determined using the weighted average cost method.

Net realisable value is the estimated selling price in the ordinary course of business less the
estimated costs of completion and the estimated costs necessary to make the sale.

Now that the 4Q20 result is out, it is time to look forward. To drive future share price gain, the following are needed:

1. Continuing global supply deficit vs demand so that tin price remains elevated, which seems likely for the next 12 months;
2. Better than expected output vol from RHT and SLT.
3. Better than expected terms for the Butterworth land JV with Straits Trading (Should be huge).

2021 Pretax profir from own mines (RHT and SLT)

2019 AR indicated RHT's tin reserves of 50011t. I hope to see more disclosure of SLT's tin reserves and operation numbers in 2000A AR. Theoretically MSC can easily raise own tin-in-concentrates output to exploit the buoyant tin price.

If they can produce at 120% of what TheEdge's article previously indicated,

Avg daily production = 1.2 * (10500 + 200)kg or 12.84t
Assume 315 days of mining a year, can expect 2021 annual tin-in-concentrates production of 4044.6t, which translates into 3033.45t of refined tin assuming 75% yield.

Assuming US$:RM exhange rate of 4.0 and avg refined tin px of US$27000/t (slightly less than 29,000 currently in terms of spot px) , mining pretax profit alone would be 3033.45 * (27000 - 15000) * 4 or RM145.6m.

Read the last statement

LME tin supply down to one day’s demand, price soars

Stocks of tin metal in LME warehouses, a key indicator of demand, were roughly 1,140 tonnes on Wednesday after 220 tonnes of tin were earmarked for delivery to buyers that day.

Global tin consumption is around 1,000 tonnes per day and current available stocks represent about one day’s consumption for the world market.

“Supply is simply struggling to keep up with demand,” said analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in a report.

“Prices increased this year on the back of declining stockpiles and strong industrial demand particularly for semi-conductors and electronics,” they added.

As Stockhead has documented, there is a worldwide shortage of semiconductor components that has curtailed the production of electronic goods, EVs, smartphones and computers.

Tin is used as a replacement for lead in solder for connecting electronic circuits, an application that accounts for 50 per cent of the metal’s demand.

Projects for a total of 50,000 tonnes of tin-in-concentrate production are set to come online by 2025, said industry body the International Tin Association (ITA).

However, many of these projects are currently at early stages of development and others had been shelved because of low tin prices in 2020.

“As a result, we expect the refined tin market to enter a significant deficit after 2023,” said the ITA in a report.

I hope u r right Dalpinia. I bought at 1.58 on avg, already late. I hope for RM5 unless later details on the Butterworth land suggest further upside.

Results after market close today or Monday?

Either the share px catches up big time tomorrow or we are missing something...

Tin futures up US$847.50/t and the sh px closed unchanged???

tin futures surge past us$25k!

Om.....May the force be with u bro Brookenzo

Breakout
Don't stop to ask
Now you've found a break to make at last
You've got to find a way
Say what you want to say
Breakout...

Tin futures breakout!

The operator saw your post that u wanted to buy at 2.73 lol!

Tin futures close to break out above recent intra-day high

Hmm....possible but not probable

The stock tends to come back in the afternoon though

you may have a chance when contra players (from 2 days ago) sq their trading positions

and work its tin mines 365 days a year - no holiday pls!

Hope MSC is capitalizing on the exuberant spot px to lock in its monster inventory profit for 1Q21

Tin futures px is creeping up again...

Should be possible, but don't know how lol

MSC is too illiquid in SG for arbitrage purpose. MY is the primary mkt for MSC.

Traders left scratching their heads after 'short squeeze' in tin prices

Some market participants are asking whether Monday's 'short squeeze' in the price of tin may in part be the result of the suspension of the London Metal Exchange's open-outcry trading floor.

On Monday, tin prices surged by $1,000 per tonne in only one hour due to reduced supply and strong from the semiconductor industry.

The so-called 'spot' price of tin traded at its widest premium - of $4,748 per tonne - versus three-month futures in 30 years on Monday, analysts at SP Angel explained.

Monday's price action was despite the delivery of a 550 tonne cargo of tin at the Port Klang warehouse on 12 February which according to Fastmarkets MB nearly increased the size of stockpiles held there to 1,340 tonnes.

So long as tin futures do not dip below US$23520, ng sei kiang!

My interpretation: Spot px surged too much too quickly yesterday

Yesterday's backwardation was 30-year high!

Tin px backwardation very deep - esp yesterday - Is mkt hinting that current tightness may not sustain too far into the future?

I only can identify Dr. Neo Soon Kean's family co in the top 30 s/h. The rest gua tak kenal. Either I am a Kampong boy or the stock is yet to be discovered!

Perstim tin user la. Users got to pay high px these days

Brokers are still zzzz mostly. Hope they will wake up soon...

Watched the interview of the Chairwoman by SG tv on youtube. Very interesting. U guys should watch - highly recommended.

If the family wants to move MSC share price, sub sub sui is the phrase!

Am surprised that the stock has no institutional following given its Strait Trading parentage and the family behind.

The fun part is tin px is still running up!

A bit of calculations to shiok sendiri, assuming avg refined tin px of USD25000/t for 1Q21 and end-1Q21 px of US$27000/t, other parameters remain unchanged,

Mining profit = 2407.5 * (25000 - 15000) * 4/4 = RM24.075m
Inventory gain = (27000/20540-1)(532.5*20540/17463) = RM196.985m assuming zero smelting margins.

1Q21PBT = RM(24.075+196.985)m = RM221.1m!

plug in the new tin price into the equation i gave you guys yesterday, u will need atenolol to slow down your heartbeat!

Hold tight tight from Xxxting, share px will hit limit up soon enough lol

Tin futures up US$1180/t!

https://www.ft.com/content/40577a9b-d4d9-4cdd-8d08-43ce1c132406

Should go up once the contra-players who went in during the recent correction r out

1Q21 profit = 77/4 + 136 = RM155m (B4 tax) even if I assume zero smelting margin so long as refined tin px stays at US$25,000 till end-1Q21. Ki Siaw Lio!