https://youtu.be/1LEoJfjlur8

Nobody can prepare for low oil price... those country who have oil usually have their budget made from the income from oil. Once the price collapsed it will affect everyone not just oil company. It could also pop alot of financial bubbles that already at shaky condition...
Only hope that once the bubble burst it doesn't spill over to everybody...

Oil is the first casualty but not the last one.

Vaccines will be available in small quantities if able to finish testing... not even sure it can be done by this year

The service line would have higher risk than the production side...

@AlvinTSK it doesn't matter whether they profit or not, all oil company will turn to hibernation mode to prevent spending and try to maintain healthy cash flow possible... their only choice is to survive through this situation... who do you think will survive through... big company with huge debts or big company with least debt or small company with no debt?

For the tapis oil argument you can check their report... no need to argue...

Nepo https://www.chinapress.com.my/?p=1938531
This report stated that the cost per barrel of US shale oil is US 23.35? Is it the production cost without counting the capital expenditures set up cost ?

Anyone familiar about the average US shale cost?
12/03/2020 10:19 AM

@Nepo

Yes that is somewhat true and false....
The cost per barrel is for the DUC (drilled but uncompleted) wells that acquired during the previous oil price war by saudi.

These wells may be cheap, but the best estimates of the oil availability may not be that accurate... many of the shale fields are overestimated... plus extra cost is not accounted when you need to maintain the same flow rate...
The cost also not include the fluctuations of the equipment cost and chemical cost that incurred during the extraction of the oil...

Actually we do not need to advice other to buy or sell... they should themselves see the downside risk and upside potential.

What i see the downside risk already happened...
It may be adjusted a bit more... the only downside risk that is still not happen is the recession in US lending market due to inflated credits on many of their industrial sector.

The upside potential is that the reversal of the downside risk and potentially absurd recession causing all price to increase including oil prices. Low price just won't last long...

Not telling you to sell or buy... just watch for these events to happen...

https://youtu.be/mZR-72jzpp0

Also shale oil proportion is more gas than crude oil...

So if all these is true, how come Saudi couldn't kill US brent oil the first time they did?

@pengyou

Time changes alot of parameter... last time it was the start of shale boom, technology still can make huge promises... now they(the investor) learn that it is just a promise... no one will invest in shale... plus the shale output IS declining and it is earlier than they expected.

Fracking solve one part of the problem to extract shale oil but they do not solve the biggest fundamental problem of shale...

1) shale is made up of small reservoir of oil... like oil pocket, thus the returns for each conventional drilling will have high cost, so fracking break the soil and let the oil flow from multiple pockets... this doesn't change the fact that the pocket are small than conventional one... thus the declining rate is very high.

2) new well must be constantly drilled to maintain the flow of the oil. They need to have constant cash pump to it.

3) not every place are same, some place have tight pocket formation, most don't.... many of the best place has been drilled and extracted.

4) the shale company are not honest, and their goals are all short term...

Yes, your comments is valid when oil price is low. My question is what happen when oil price goes back up? Shale oil was/is profitable at 60 dollars per barrel. Do they plan to keep it below 60 all the time?

@pengyou

The cost calculations are with many flaws, it could be that low if only they can maintain profitability within the short boom period of the oil production. Cost varies every quarter as you can see in each different company. The cost that are reported are the best case in specific during specific time.

Due to this when the price back to original, we cannot assume they will return with same production level.
Plus this is the time they get market ... person who give up production will lose market. If they reduce production today they will have to sell at even lower price when the price is up.

Then let shale oil company go bust by themselves. Why need to force them to go bust? If you force them to go bust by lowering oil price, what happens when oil prices go back up? Once oil price goes back up, new shale oil company will start pumping back the oil. No difference.
09/03/2020 3:19 PM

@pengyou

New shale oil will have difficulty to get investor like they do during 2018... the 2018 is due to the market pump fast cash in this industry that made them believe that is able to earn big returns. It already proven that their investment doesn't have returns, even worse the money vanished in thin air. During that time all the shale producers are targeting high production of oil because their ceo paychecks depends on it... there is none future thinking in the industry. The cash flow suffered and all the investors money gone. Currently only left inefficient site which doesn't not make sense to purchase. Many big player already written off their assets in permian due to this reason also. When there are no money flow, then there is no chance for them to revive the industry.

pengyou clp72 i believe this is what the russians want, low oil prices so they will kill off the shale producers but in order for this to happen, these low prices will need to be sustained for 1-2 years...

You can't kill shale oil producers. Current shale oil producer go bankrupt, another company will acquire the asset. Once oil price goes back up, they start producing oil again.
09/03/2020 10:09 AM

@pengyou, the shale industries has no new technology to support another boom in their industry...
All the low cost area has been explored, buying their assets may come with their debts too... i dont think the bank or investors allow the company simply sell only the assets... even if they do let them sell, not much profit will come as most of the fields require investment to drill the less efficient fields..
09/03/2020 1:47 PM

I think some acquisition has been planned... just wait

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-02-24/peak-oil-review-24-february-2020/

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-02-09/note-to-eia-major-shale-operator-sending-cash-elsewhere/

Buy buy buy

Chinese new year is near... let see how many people withdraw from the stock market...

Idss so lemah

IDSS should try harder. Seriously...

Today volume so low... sigh...

Hmm... 95cents... didn't see it reach anytime...

Most of them trade on technicals... which is controlled by someone... so they move on to make predictions based on the stock movements... which is also controlled by someone... then they blame on monkeys that sell and buy...
They have no ideas what really happens and what this company actually doing...
If they have no idea on the buyer of the stock, they keep saying each people here is bought high and chase high... which the fact is mostly opposite...
If you feed the trolls what you get is only troll...

Just got a feeling arguing with strawberries has no use... they'll call you baby boomer even if you wasn't one...

Lol on stuck high mentality

I have lost interest to say anything useful here... not that it will make any difference

@dericlock yes true... we should stop commenting here...
I just wanna say ... buy buy buy

Buy buy buy...

This stock was never in the high position... these few months it is ignored and reacted upon results that are cyclic low. Let see how the market reacts to their cyclic high during 2nd quarter report...

Bonus : the current tension made by US may cause countermeasure even within their own ally country...

Buy buy buy...

Buy buy buy...

Drop drop drop ... then can buy buy buy again

I think there might be storm coming after a calm... something big gonna happens... most probably after CNY

One thing to consider ... due to IMO-2020, crude transport has became not so favorable since the fuel to transport crude may cost much more than the crude margins. Refinery may opt to purchase more local source or nearer with higher premium.

@supermx2 ok marking now


supermx2 Oil 2 percent drop now. Non stop bleeding. Tomorrow will back to the square one. Those chased at 107 better prepare to chop legs and hands

The ratio of the shale gas after a year of production is more that the crude oil itself.. it is not comparable to offshore production... they are doing flaring because the transport limitation to transfer from mid land to cities to be in good use, they are also in the maximum capacity that market can absorb...

And fracking is way bad to the environment eventhough produce the same level of crude... they burned off the natural gas the got from their shale...

Btw... i didn't hope for war... instead i hope shale to fail... haha... don't like US shale so much...

Supermx didn't buy today...

The queue is like ... lol

Er... what happened... suddenly drop by 2 cents

Marah tanpa sebab...

Manyak datang haid punya orang

@dericlock... what to do... the market so hate this counter...

Breakeven at 96.5 cents...

When is next qr result?

All attention has gone to the O&G service provider stock ... no more money to divest here... haha

All of sudden, logistic become a problem

Ya ... the imo2020 has big impact ..