Some corrections to my post above on YTL DCs.

YTL DC 1 is rated 72MW capacity and is largely leased to SEA Ltd for colocation data centre.

YTL DC2 is now rated 20MW for Nvidia AI data centre, to be expanded to 100MW once Blackwell GPU supply contraints are overcome in 2025

YTL DC3 has 80MW IT load and is for a hyperscaler mentioned before

YTL DC6 is for 40MW IT load and is a built-to-suit data centre for a large multinational corporation (MNC) customer. This data center is expected to be ready for service in mid 2025. This is new to me, which I have not inputed any earnings contribution for.

Further clarification from YTL IR/DC follows.
Even if you assume YTL is indirectly exposed to the risk of Super Micro server rack issues, if you do the maths, YTLP's first 20MW of AI data centres will require roughly 24,000 GPUs and with 72 GPUs in each cabinet server, they can expect about 333 cabinet servers to be delivered to YTLP in January 2025.

If you then look at the forecast in the link below, Nvidia is expected to ship 60-70k of B200 cabinets in 2025 so securing 333 cabinet servers, irrespective of the Super Micro situation, should not be a problem for Nvidia especially given its size and influence in the supply chain.

YTL cannot overemphasize its privilege of being the first to deploy the Blackwells outside the US so all parties are working hard to meet the timeline.

This privilege potentially has significant long term implications because many developing countries will want to learn from YTL experience especially in developing sovereign AI.
https://www.techspot.com/news/103994-nvidia-blackwell-server-cabinets-could-cost-somewhere-around.html

The IR dept added that YTLP buy the GPUs in cabinet servers so they have no exposure to Super Micro in the first place. Each cabinet costs US$3 million with 72 Blackwell GPUs plugged in.

This is for the tech guys to divulge further, but it makes sense to me and is consistent with what I can find online.

@wkc5657, thanks for the notes above.

trendforce may be a reputable site for tech news, but I question the writer's post above especially the few sentences linking SMC to YTL's DC site progress.

For this news, I have checked with YTL investor relation dept and their reply, after checking with YTL DC chief, is that there is no truth in the article content that is related to impact on YTL DC. They said YTLP ordered everything directly from Nvidia, thought Nvidia may use the service or parts from other vendors.

@cktay, the article on Super Micro Computer halting production in Malaysia and affecting YTL data centre is fake news, you can just ignore it. It appeared in an unknown online website for gamers.

As for the article on the interview of YTL Power MD with The Edge Weekly, I think I have commented before, but will add a few points here.

What Dato' Yeoh tried to stress was that Nvidia GPUs are now highly in demand and it is a seller market, i.e. the chips can be priced very high but still demand is over supply. Nvidia will focus on producing the AI chips and supply them to the hyperscalers who need them in the AI data centres to provide AI cloud services to clients, instead of building own AI data centres to compete with the hyperscalers.

For that reason, Nvidia is temporarily scaling down its AI data centre size to 20MW at YTLP Kulai DC Park until supply catches up with demand. Hyperscalers are knocking at Nvidia's door every week trying to get as many GPUs as possible and as soon as possible. Hence Nvidia has prioritised supply to the hyperscaler who has signed up for 80MW at YTL DC, and another hyperscaler in discussion.

I get the impression that supply will ramp up in 2025 especially after Nvidia unveils its next advanced chips GB200 and GB200A in Mar/April 2025. Then Nvidia's AI data centre with YTLP will resume ramping up from 20MW to the intended 100MW in FY2026. That's why you can see YTL DC1 has been designated to 20MW for now, and that was used by business rivals to spread fake news that Nvidia was pulling out of Malaysia.

He confirmed that obviously YTLP has secured clients for its data centres, otherwise banks will not lend to finance the projects for the various new data centres there (DC1, DC2, DC5 & DC6 all under construction in various stages now). That's also why YTLP is arranging site visits for MPs, fund managers and analysts to visit its Kulai DC Park to see the actual progress, there is nothing to hide, they will see for themselves.

As for possible US sanctions on YTLP providing AI processing power to China clients, Yeoh said their legal team and commercial team will have done the checks to mitigate such risks before YTLP an invest. But I am not aware of any China client that YTLP has secured so far.

On the other hand, Yeoh said YTLP's subsidiary Ranhill is building a new 100MW gas plant in Sabah, which I have not included any earnings contribution yet. That is a positive news.

On Wessex, the capex plan for the next regulatory 5 years (Apr 2025- Mar 2030) will be a lot higher at GBP3.5 billion, compared to GBP1.4b in the current 5 years to Mar 2025. This will present billions of construction contracts to YTL construction arm in next 5 years, as YTL construction will deliver cost effective solutions to Wessex compared to UK contractors. Yeoh cautioned that the higher capex will lead to higher depreciation charges which will in turn lower the accounting profits, which is sensible. But cashflows wise, Wessex shall have higher operating cashflows due to higher regulated asset base and lower interest rates. In a way, while accounting profit may not grow as much, Wessex may declare higher dividends in the next 5 years.

Yeoh confirmed that YTLP will have no issue of funding capex requirements as the company always keeps high level of cash in hand. Furthermore, YTLP always structure every investment as a SPV, each will borrow to fund each capex, each is rated on their own and each gives dividends to YTLP every year.



Posted by cktay > 17 hours ago | Report Abuse

In his first media interview since the announcement of the US$4.3 billion data centre in December 2023, YTL Power managing director Datuk Seri Yeoh Seok Hong dismisses any uncertainty surrounding its partnership with Nvidia Corp in the project.
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732608
https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/12/news-supermicros-financial-crisis-shifts-malaysias-ytl-group-order-to-taiwanese-firm/
[Dragon .... need you to crunch above two articles for us]

DIvidend is a long short for now, as IOIPG just declared the final dividend for FY2024. Next dividend may come only in Q4 FY25 towards June 2025, I think.

The AGM/EGM last week failed to spark any interest in the stock as negative headlines over-cloud the positive news.

The headline of CEO Lee withdrawing the proposal for IOIPG to participate in Shenton House redevelopment was not seen as positive, as EPF rejected the proposal. But I think that may be a blessing in disguise. I would recommend IOIPG to directly take over the project from CEO Lee at cost price as originally proposed in FY2026 when IOICB achieves occupancy rate of 95% or above.

Recent good news includes:
1) IOI Central Boulevard occupancy rate has improved from 50% in June 24 to now 68%

2) Recent prime office sales in Singapore CBD achieved record high valuation of SGD5,000 psf, which is considerably higher than the current valuation of SGD3,200 psf for IOICB. If IOICB is revalued to SGD5,000 psf, it will be revalued to SGD6.45 billion and IOIPG would be able to book in a revaluation gain of SGD2.3 billion or RM7.6 billion or NTA improved by RM1.38 per share.

3) US Fed just cut interest rates by 25 bps last Thursday, coupled with the 50bps cut in September, this will help lower interest expenses at IOICB by SGD22 million a year

4) The recently launched IOI Rio City in Bandar Puteri Puchong has a total GDV of RM12 billion, which is way higher than expected

5) REIT framework is under work in progress though details are scarce and timing not so soon, but at least the management is moving in the right direction

6) A land sale deal for 100 acre will be announced soon, this is larger than expected (the management indicated a size of 50 acres previously)

Anyway, the timing coincides with a Trump win that has sparked fund withdrawal by foreign funds from Bursa in general, just unfortunate. Hopefully the relatively low foreign funds holding in IOIPG will not cause too much selling pressure on this stock.

This is total nonsense. YTL has never dealt with Super Micro Computer. YTLP is getting Blackwell GPUs and the server directly from Nvidia. In fact, I do not think Super Micro even has any production facility in Malaysia.

What a lame attempt, so fake!



Posted by StarOfTheBull > 21 minutes ago | Report Abuse


wayup

19 posts

Posted by wayup > 10 hours ago | Report Abuse

https://wccftech.com/super-micro-computer-smci-reportedly-drops-the-ball-on-a-huge-order-for-nvidias-nvl72-gb200-chips-prompting-a-taiwanese-company-to-pick-up-the-tab/
Good or bad news anyone?

""""""""""""
In summary:
Two makers of NVIDIA’s NVL72 GB200 Chips.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) and
Taiwan’s Wiwynn.
SMCI stopped operation in Malaysia due to financial constraints.
YTLP was forced to divert its NVIDIA’s NVL72 GB200 Chips order from Taiwan’s Wiwynn for its data centre in Kulai, Johor.

YTL Power MD confirmed that the data centre development in its Kulai DC Park is well on track. The company has hosted visits by various parties including MP Liu and MP Teoh last month, and is organising another visit by various parties two weeks later to the Kulai DC Park to showcase the actual progress on the ground. That is to dispel the various fake news and speculation on any delay in its data centre progress or Nvidia pulling out of Malaysia.

YTL Power remains the cheapest utility stock with forward PER of less than 7.0x compared to well over 20x PER for other utility stocks like Tenaga and PetGas. Even if I strip out contribution from AI data centre in FY25, YTL Power EPS will still come to 43 sen matching FY2024 actual earnings. Forward or historical PER for YTL Power comes to just 7.4x, still way cheaper than other utility stocks.

If I include half of the projected earnings contribution from AI contribution in FY2026, YTL Power net profit is projected to jump to RM4.7 billion or EPS of 58 sen. Then YTLP PER will fall to just 5.5x, which is ridiculously low for an Nvidia-proxy AI stock.


Posted by BullOhBear > 44 minutes ago | Report Abuse

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732608

The key issue left in the 1Bestarinet project is the site rentals and electricity charges as mentioned by YB Wong, the rest is just noise.

RM4.0b was the total project cost which was borne by YTL Comms, on which YTL has not made any return. Naysayers and business rivals tend to overblow the issue and figure.

Total nonsense. YTLP has never dealt with Super Micro.

Posted by BursaVulture > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

Super Micro Computer halted construction of a new factory in Malaysia, prompting Malaysia’s YTL Corp. to transfer orders for Nvidia GB200 NVL72 AI servers to Taiwan’s Wiwynn, media report, noting the original order was for a ‘super large’ AI data center. It’s the first substantial order transferred by a Super Micro client to a Taiwan firm, the report says.

https://x.com/dnystedt/status/1855794043713904662?t=kB38SHflZrOtG2NUZhXCwg&s=19

Normally big bosses don't bother much about AGM, just sitting through the motion.

But a bigger concern is that the top management staffs like COO and CFO are just doing a job, taking fat pays without the need to set any KPIs for delivery in the current financial year. That arises when the major shareholder LYS is not paying much attention to the projects in Malaysia and/or Singapore, though hanging the title of CEO. That is no incentive for top management staffs to work hard and perform.

Occasionally the management delivers some brilliant move such as launching new industrial parks in Selangor and Melaka, and expanding IOI Industrial Park at Iskandar. From the experience from Trump 1.0, Malaysia managed to attract lots of foreign investments and the demand for industrial parks was very strong.

But overall, the group lacks a direction and total management approach for a comprehensive goal for the entire group.

They have not been resting lately, though some still say they are not active enough.

See they have acquired 3 to 4 commercial assets from Tropicana group - Tropicana Gardens Mall, W Hotel KL, a piece of land in Langkawi for potential development into a new hotel etc. There are good and bad to such acquisitions. Bad is realised immediately as it has increased the group gearing, but the good may only be felt few years later, if any.

They have been busy trying to complete the construction of IOICB and get new tenants, but the effort has not yielded much outcome as desired.

The heavy bet on Marina View Residences (as IOIPG has revised up the development plan and target selling price to SGD5,000 psf) also has not seen any favourable outcome yet, as they are keeping mum on the planned official launching. Perhaps the initial response is not as good as they had expected it to be, so postponing it or bringing it back to the drawing table for possible revision?

That's the issue - lack of communication to the shareholders and investors on their key projects and the progress.

But I think the top management has learned the mistake, so they are talking directly to data centre players for potential sale of land, hence the potential 100 acres of land sale as mentioned above. I hope it will be concluded soon.

As you say, IOIPG management may be too contented with steady business here and there, and the board is just sleeping. I am not sure whether they tried to be proactive to monetise some assets, or were just not sensitive enough to market trends and forces, when they sold off a large piece of land in Kulai at cheap price to Eco World last November only for Eco World to flip part of it to Microsoft at RM75 psf. Can't say they were not proactive enough, right??

But I will stay invested in this company as I see deep values in its vast assets in Malaysia and Singapore. It takes time for IOIPG to monetise them.

Now IOIPG management and LYS himself are being looked down by institutional funds who have always proactive management and CEO like Sunway and Eco World or Mah Sing. That's why these funds ascribe higher premium to these counters, as the fund managers get better assess and engagement with the management.

IOIPG management will need to beef up engagement with the investment public and funds, if they want to see the share price move higher. Communication needs to be made better and any plan by the company should be made transparent enough to get investors and institutional funds buy in, then only company proposals can move ahead.

Sadly this has not been the case, hence we can only see other property counters like Sunway shooting skyhigh (with over 100% valuation premium to IOIPG) but having our IOIPG shares stuck at low levels.

Next things IOIPG management needs to do is to try to ramp up occupancy rate at IOICB to 80% or higher as soon as possible, and make it profitable after paying off interest expenses. Then only we see a chance for this prime asset to be injected into a REIT in Singapore, which will turn around the entire group.

Again, patience is the key. But equally important is a proactive and capable management.

That shows that EPF was unhappy with IOIPG management in issues related to its business operations in Singapore. Otherwise I cannot think of a reason why one would object to the proposal for IOIPG to participate in the Shenton House redevelopment as the project manager and marketing agent. It would have been a sure win deal for IOIPG, in my view.

It shows that generally shareholders and investors are not happy with the financial performance of IOIPG and its share price performance in general, and in particular the company's business direction in heavy bets in the Singapore commercial property sector.

With IOI Central Boulevard still struggling to achieve tenancy of 80%, and Marina View Residences not able to be launched on time, and so much Singapore dollar debts at the subsidiaries, it was untimely for LYS to propose to inject Shenton House into IOIPG in the first place. That actually killed off investors' optimism towards taking on another commercial project in Singapore. The initial proposal by LYS might have pissed off substantial shareholders like EPF, and they just object to any subsequent proposal in relation to Shenton House.

Recall that EPF had been aggressive in accumulating IOIPG shares in the months of July - Sept 2024 after big purchases by foreign funds in Mar-May 2024. These funds were buying IOIPG in anticipation of the completion of IOI Central Boulevard by Q3 CY2024, and massive earnings contribution from IOICB from Q4 CY2024 onwards.

But to the contrary, IOICB completion has been delayed to Dec 2024, and IOIPG management had indicated to analysts and funds that the company would start expense off the interest costs at IOICB which might dampen earnings.

Then came the Shenton House proposal that basically killed off all optimism towards the company's near term financial performance and loss of confidence towards IOIPG management itself.

Kikilala3188

EPF issued statement to object Shenton voting and proposal

2 hours ago

Ya I agree with UncleFollower observation that the whole IOIPG management team was like in very low morale, which is reflected in the languishing share prices.

I also reckon that CEO Lee should take the company private if he is not willing to response to shareholders' queries and does not react well to even EPF's objection and shareholders' different opinions.

This is in stark contrast to IOI Corp AGM 2 days ago. Based on media reports after the AGM, senior Lee and his IOI management team have given much more proactive responses to shareholders' queries.

That's not good to hear. The CEO has left it to the COO and the team to manage the company assets in Malaysia, it looks like that way. He may be only interested in the Singapore business.


Posted by Kikilala3188 > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse

LYS showed poker face & don’t look interested with today AGM; even starring at phone for few minutes

Thanks Kikilala3188 for the updates.

My feeling is that there is limitation on how much Chris can do to revive Tropicana Gardens Mall as this mall has not been performing for years. Yet IOIPG still acquired it but only at a discount to book value. I do not expect TGM to contribute handsome earnings to IOIPG in near term, but just hope the gross rental income can improve at least by 20% so that IOIPG can break even on this acquisition. I think we have to look longer term for this asset to perform.

A quicker way will be of course to package it together with other crown jewels of IOIPG, i.e. IOI City Mall and IOI Mall Puchong to list them in a commercial REIT.

Trump is seen winning the US presidential election, so it will strengthen the US dollars and be good for our tech and export companies. You see other tech stocks like Notion and Greatec also going up a lot today.

It could be EPF selling again. Bursa announcements show the latest sale by EPF on 29 Oct.

EPF always sells when the share price is up by 3%-5%, no matter how good the prospects are.

BTW, anyone attending the AGM/EGM of IOIPG tomorrow?

Please give us updates on any news or message from the CEO tomorrow.

US dollars immediately strengthen to RM4.40, which will be good for YTL Power as it repatriates overseas earnings back to ringgit.

PowerSeraya business operations continue showing strength in the month of October after a strong quarter of July-Sept 2024. Wessex Waters and Yes 5G will continue to report decent profits after turning around in Q4 FY2024. All things point to a strong Q1 & Q2 FY2025 coming.

See EPF again net bought 671,700 shares of IOIPG last Friday. Foreign funds also buying in.

Who would sell the shares of this great company with strong earnings growth and many good news coming its way?

That was one seller queuing 1.0 million shares to sell at RM2.28 at 4.48pm just now, and press the share price from RM2.30 to close at RM2.28. Who the heck would do this thing?

Only call warrant issuers.

@cktay, I have already given my comments on the YTL Power Annual Report released yesterday in my other investment blog. There are about 9 positive developments as detailed in the annual report.

@paktua73, I support you here.

I grabbed some tickets at 0.375-0.355 yesterday, so good some people threw low to me.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/10/29/ioi-properties-to-develop-rm12-bil-ioi-rio-city-over-12-years

First of a few positive surprises came out yesterday, but it was not widely reported yet. Not even in The Star hardcopy papers today, and no analyst has picked up this news.

Even EPF has turned buyer of IOIPG with a net purchase of 500k shares last Thursday, foreign funds net bought RM4m of IOIPG on Monday, after a net buy of RM6m last Friday and net buy of RM22m last Thursday.

But all these were not enough to counter the selling by call warrant issuers.

Correct, @UncleFollower. The market is betting on a Trump's win and hence lower interest rate cuts after that, but I won't bet on that. Kamala Harris may still have chance to run ahead in the last few days, especially if a ceasefire talk can achieve the desired result in Gaza.

Even with a Trump win, market scenario simulation points to a total 100 bps rate cut by Dec 2025, compared to a 150 bps rate cut with a Kamala win, so it will be just a 50 bps difference between the two scenarios. The big picture of Fed pivot will never change.

EPF sold 3.0 million shares of IOIPG on 22 Oct, again by its fund manager Citigroup, while foreign funds were buying.

Foreign funds net bought RM6m of IOIPG shares last Friday, after the big purchase of RM22m last Thursday and RM5m last Wednesday.

Interestingly, local institutional funds also net bought RM8m worth of IOIPG last Friday, local retailers were the only net sellers with a net sale of RM3m.

Who then were the other sellers? The answer is obvious - call warrant issuers - RHB, Maybank, CIMB and less so Macquarie.

Buyers continue queuing up at 2.28-2.25 ready to collect more tickets as these call warrant issuers dump their mother shares hedge to depress the final settlement price for the call warrants leading up to 30 Oct.

It appears that foreign funds are being misled by this fake news below, once they realise the mistake, I am sure they will buy back.

FYI, a site visit to YTL DC Park Kulai will be organised to showcase the actual progress of the various AI data centres to analysts and fund managers in next few weeks. They will see for themselves everything is progressing on track for completion in stages from early 2025.


OTB

YTL Power shares suffered heavy selling yesterday, apparently due to a rumuor that YTL name had been removed from the global partner list of Nvidia. I must clarify that this is a fake news.

In a post in LinkedIn below by a Nvidia VP after the launch of Blackwell B200 GPUs, YTL was put on the same level as Google and Oracle so YTL Power is not just a normal partner or distributor of Nvidia.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/alexisbjorlin_gtc24-gtc24-dgxcloud-activity-7176653089066684416-aLPY?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

GTC conference in March 2024

During its recent GTC conference in March, Nvidia announced the launch of the new Blackwell platform, with only select partners with first access to the chips.

The list includes hyperscalers (AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure).

Nvidia Colour Partners (Applied Digital, Coreweave, Crusoe, IBM Cloud, Lambda).

Sovereign AI cloud providers (Nebius, Nexgen Cloud, Singtel, Yotta, and YTLP).

Remarks
YTLPower is the official AI data centres and cloud providers of Nvidia in Malaysia. The official agreement on the partnership between YTLPower and Nvidia was signed in 2023.

Presently, Nvidia has agreed to lease 100 MW, a hyperscaler has agreed to lease 40+40 MW, a total of 180 MW of AI data centres in FY 2026/7.

Sea Ltd has agreed to lease 48 MW of data centres without AI in FY 2026.

Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam are new members of BRIC.
No such news that Nvidia will shift its AI data centres from Malaysia to Thailand because Thailand is also a new member of BRIC.

Please write with facts and figures.
Good luck.
Thank you.

@value_seeker, apologies, it should be around 10 million shares of IOIPG that foreign funds net bought yesterday - RM22m / RM2.20 = 10m

Foreign funds net bought RM22m worth of IOIPG shares yesterday after a net purchase of RM5m on Wednesday. Yesterday IOIPG dropped big on heavy volume of 16 million shares. Foreign funds net bought about 5 million shares yesterday.

Who was selling? As said before, I suspect it was call warrant issuers likely RHB (C19, conversion price RM2.28) and Maybank (C21, conversion price RM2.35)who have a call warrant expiring on 28 and 30 Oct respectively.

It could also be EPF selling in an EPF fund managed by Citigroup who has notoriously prematurely sold stakes of stocks that are about to rally up, eg. YTL Power in 2023 and Sunway in Jan 2024.

I think foreign funds were selling IOIPG today, after they acquired some RM5m worth of IOIPG shares yesterday, on top of continuous selling by call warrant issuers.

We need to ride through this volatility to end of Oct.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang yesterday clarified that the design flaw in Blackwell CPU has already been resolved with TSMC, and the production of Blackwell is well on track. The demand for Nvidia chips is "insane".

There is no stopping at YTLP's AI data centre with Nvidia, with Nvidia chips expected to be delivered in early 2025.

See who is spreading fake news and unfounded fear factor

Gamuda is seeing liquidation of RM8.50 x 11.3m = RM96m

CIMB saw RM8.10 x 13.5m = RM109m of money out

Maybank saw RM10.60 x 12m = RM127m of liquidation

You see Tenaga is also suffering from foreign selling, it looks like, with over 11m shares traded, which is big at RM14.50 x 11m = RM160m of money taken out.

YTLP is seeing a value of RM3.22 x 31m = RM100m of money out today.

@HumptyDumpty, I do not think that the new proposed dividend tax will have much impact on foreign funds interests in Bursa, as it is only 2% tax for dividend income above RM100k a year.

I think foreign funds are shifting some fund to China and Hong Kong markets after the big stimulus measures announced by Beijing in late August.

On the contrary, our Budget 2025 did not seem to have any positive measures on listed companies. Despite our PM calls for our GLC funds and institutional funds to bring back more money from abroad to invest in the local market, EPF and the likes have not been seen as aggressive buyers of local stocks, at least it is not enough to counter the outflow of foreign funds, I think.

The current share price weakness may be due to some temporary noise such as the MACC case which itself is just smoke and mirror, foreign funds trimming to swift funds to China/HK (this selling happens to many other big caps in Bursa), fake negative news like Nvidia pulling out of Malaysia or delays in Blackwell chip delivery, strong ringgit to depress earnings blablabla.

I won't be too concerned with such short term volatility, as I believe at the end of the day, fundamentals prevail.

YTL Power is the cheapest utility and big cap stock in Bursa with forward PER of just 7x, a steal for a blue chip company that is seeing earnings growth of double digits over next 5 years. Funds will eventually return to this gem.

Short sellers and business rivals can only do as much, causing short term fear and selling and will not last long. In fact, net short positions on YTL Power have dropped substantially since late August, indicating that the real money has already been taken off the betting table.

Long term investors can just relax and ride though the current volatility. In fact, the volatility has given great opportunities to long term investors to gain entry at bargain prices.

There is no change in the company fundamentals, the earnings outlook for YTL Power remains bright with various new initiatives well on track:

1) Colocation data centre with SEA Ltd 1st phase already up and running, and second phase of another 8MW is on track for completion in 2025
2) AI data centres for Nvidia and a hyperscaler are also well on track for completion progressively from early 2025

3) The 600MW hydrogen-ready CCGT at PowerSeraya just had its groundbreaking ceremony yesterday by a Singapore minister and Tan Sri Francis Yeoh, well on track for completion by end 2027

4) Wessex Waters turnaround has already happened since April 2024 after the water tariff revision and will continue into the upcoming Q1 - Q3 FY2025 with decent profits

5) Jordan Power is in full power production and the PPA inflation adjustments continue to adjust the PPA payments higher every year

6) Yes 5G has turned around too, boosted by the Sabah broadband project that will last for 3 years

7) The pilot project of exporting 100MW RE to Singapore has been going on as planned since Jan 2024 and will continue to Dec 2025, and after which is well on track for extension as the peak demand growth in Singapore is robust as indicated by Singapore minister in his speech yesterday at PowerSeraya's 600MW CCGT groundbreaking ceremony

8) The installation of solar power at Kulai DC Park and for the 100MW pilot project is under preparation as solar panel prices have dropped to decade low

That's no bad news on YTL, the MACC case on 1Bestarinet project is just a smoke and mirror tool used by business rivals to confuse investors. YTL is not keeping silent and has already said that they would cooperate with MACC in the investigation. In fact, since the 1st day of MACC visit to YTL Comms office in September (and that visit was informed in advance, not even a raid), there has been no query to YTL Comms personnel as YTL has already furnished all relevant info to MACC. I believe this case will be gone in sooner or later.

It will not have any impact at all on YTL's ability to bid for mega infrastructure projects. In fact, YTL just had the groundbreaking ceremony for the 600MW hydrogen-ready CCGT of PowerSeraya yesterday. YTL got the S$800m construction contract after its unit YTL PowerSeraya won the bid from Singapore EMA early this year to construct this new generator plant in Jurong Island.

The selling today may well be mother share dumping by some call warrant issuers who have a few call warrants on YTL and YTL Power expiring by end Oct, especially RHB who has both a call warrant on YTL and YTL Power expiring on 28 Oct. RHB is not seen to issue any more new call warrant on these 2 counters so they may dump all the mother shares hedged in these few days leading to 28 Oct to depress the share price and hence the final settlement price of the call warrants. RHB is aiming to press the share price of YTL below RM2.20 the conversion price and YTL Power below RM3.50 the conversion price of the call warrant.

Some selling may also come from certain foreign funds who are liquidating big caps in general in Bursa for their strategy to move some funds to China and HK.

Hence, after this wave of selling I expect YTL and YTL P share price to rebound gradually.

@MrFox, yes signs are pointing to increased water tariffs in the final determination by Ofwat in December, as other water companies such as Thames has already voiced out strongly for a much higher increase in tariff, otherwise they would not survive and their shareholders would not pump in any more equity money to fund the huge capex for 2025-2030.

I hope Wessex will be able to get a WACC of at least 4.0% in the final determination from the approved 3.66% in the second determination in August.

Mr. OTB, yes you are right that I have not included the potential earnings to be earned from RE generation supplied to the data centres at Kulai. I have highlighted this in an earlier note that once YTLP installs solar power at the Kulai DC park, its data centres will be able to save on electricity costs which I assumed at over 50 sen/kWh to be supplied from the grid. Potential saving on electricity costs may amount to few hundred million ringgit a year based on the current solar panel prices.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/energy/work-begins-ytl-corporations-800-mil-600mw-hydrogen-ready-combined-cycle-gas-turbine

This new 600MW hydrogen-ready CCGT in PowerSeraya to be commissioned by end of 2027 will contribute about RM700 million of net profit a year from 2028 to YTL Power based on my base case assumptions. If green hydrogen fuel costs can drop by half in next 5 years as projected by some international energy experts, the potential profit margin from this 600MW CCGT will be higher. At the start, it will be 50% hydrogen capable upon completion. It can be retrofitted to achieve 100% hydrogen-readiness in the future.

Meanwhile, this new CCGT project will provide S$800 million worth of construction work to YTL Corp as it is the turnkey contractor to carry out this job for next 3 years.

I suspect the selling was done by call warrant issuers to depress down the share price ahead of the expiry of 4 call warrants this month end, but I may be wrong.

Mr. OTB, now I see where you are coming from. You were thinking that out of the planned 500MW solar power farm in Kulai, 100MW would be used for RE export to Singapore, 150+80MW would be used to power the secured 230MW AI data centres, 20-30MW reserved to power the 32-40MW colocation data centre with SEA Ltd, so there would be some 150MW of solar power capacity left for RE export to Singapore.

But it does not work that way for RE export to Singapore.

Firstly, the 668ha of site at Kulai is sufficient to install a max of 500MW of solar power. That's enough to power up at best 250MW of AI data centre with battery solutions. That is because solar power can generate electricity for 4 to 6 hours a day in general, so it takes at least double the size of solar power peak capacity to power up the AI data centre of certain power load, eg. you need to install at least 200MWp of solar power plus big battery storage in order to power up a 100MW AI data centre, with 100MW of electricity generated during the day when sunlight is available at the strongest for 4-6 hours, then 100MW x 3 times of battery storage to continue the power supply to the data centre for another 12-18 hours of the day, with the balance supplied from the grid. I think you need to have RE to power up the AI data centre for about 20 hours a day minimum to qualify for a green data centre.

Similarly, for RE export to Singapore, the EMA will specify continuous supply of the RE at certain capacity or at least 16 hours/day of RE supply during the peak demand periods of electricity demand in Singapore. So for a 100MW of RE export to Singapore, we will need solar power installation of about 400MWp with at least 300MW of battery storage in order to supply minimum 16 hours a day of RE supply.

For the pilot project of 100MW solar power export to Singapore that YTLP has secured from Singapore EMA, YTLP is having a temporary arrangement with Tenaga to supply the required RE to Singapore, until YTLP installs sufficient solar power at a new site in Malaysia. It is awaiting the details of the Third Party Access (TPA) to be finalised before it decides where to install the solar power farm, I think.

I have gathered info that YTLP has secured some sites in the northern region of Peninsular Malaysia as sun intensity is the highest in the northern region.

@xiaoeh, I have bought a lot of YTL Power at around RM0.70 in the first batch, then added more at RM1.10-1.40. I did sell a little bit at prices from RM5.00 to RM5.30 for those lots I bought at around RM1.10 for the first 5-bagger gain.

For those lots bought at RM0.70, I am still holding and plan to hold till I get a 10 bagger from it, i.e. when YTLP share reaches RM7.00 expected by FY2026.

If RE export quantity is for 150MW based on solar power, then the projected net profit for YTLP would be RM338 million a year as you highlighted above. But I tend to stick to the more conservative of the 100MW RE pilot program continuing into 2026.

Mr. OTB, in my earnings projection for YTL Power, I still assume that there will be 100MW of RE export to Singapore continuing after the 2-year pilot program, based on installation of some 500MWp of solar power at a Johor site with battery solutions, and an average electricity selling price of SGD170/MWh. So I have projected a net profit contribution of RM225 million from this RE export to YTL Power from FY2026 onwards flat for at least 10 years to 2035 when more RE import to Singapore is expected.

The selling this morning was due to disappointment of some short term traders on the lack of HOC and Madani Deposit scheme in Budget 2025, even if these schemes were announced at the budget tabling, I suspect these short term punters would have sold on news anyway.

It is good to flush out the short term punters whose selling has been quickly adsorbed by longer term investors.

Even though HOC and Madani Deposit scheme were not announced during the budget tabling last Friday, it is not all lost. There are other measures which are positive for the property sector.

In particular, the government guarantee of RM12.8b has enabled some 57,000 first-time home buyers to obtain necessary financing to purchase their first house under RM500,000.

The government announced an extension of another RM10b to enable at least another 20,000 first-time home buyers to get home loans to purchase houses priced up to RM500,000.

These two initiatives will enable easily 80,000 first-time home buyers to buy their first house, and will help to clear the outstanding inventory of at least 80,000 units of overhand properties.

In addition, the Step Up Financing Scheme under SJKP offers a government guarantee of up to RM5.0 billion for young people purchase their first home. The scheme provides lower repayment options for the first 5 years to ease their financial burden. Assuming a guarantee amount of averaged RM100,000 per buyer for the first 5 years of lower instalments, this scheme will benefit another 50,000 young home buyers.

All these schemes above aim to address the issue of difficulty in getting financing for young home buyers due to low monthly salary at young ages or instable monthly income.