@Alex Chua, Wessex got the lowest increase of 21% in water tariffs as it chose to recover the planned investment from a longer period.

Wessex had asked for a 30% increase in tariffs but got 21%. Thames Water asked for 59% increase in water tariffs and got 33% instead. Ofwat did push back on the quantum of tariff increase asked by each water company, at different proportion of increase.

Of note is that out of the 21% increase approved for Wessex from 2024-2025 to 2029-2030, Wessex is allowed to front load the bulk of the increase, i.e. Wessex is allowed to raise water tariffs by 13% from 2024-2025 to 2025-2026, then a 2% averaged increase in each subsequent year.

By front loading the tariff hike, Wessex will be able to book in additional profits of at least RM250 million a year from FY2026.

@Aero1, yes that is a super good news to YTL Power.

Ofwat just approved a very good final determination on water tariff hikes for Wessex Waters for the next 5 years from 2025 to 2030.

But EPF has been selling AEON aggressively in past few weeks for no obvious reason.

EPF's stake in AEON has reduced by half from 13% last year to just 6% now.

Perhaps EPF has lost patience with the management of AEON and its efforts to grow the company earnings.

@HumptyDumpty, I tried to calculate from bottom up the estimated costs for YTLP's data centres. Based on my earlier calculations, assuming a price of US$30k-40k per Nvidia GPU, a 50MW AI data centre may cost up to RM5.0 billion for AI chips and IT equipment alone. Adding other civil costs for land foundation and building construction, plus apportioned land cost, a 50MW AI data centre may cost up to RM6.0 billion to develop.

For the 100MW AI data centre with Nvidia, plus the 48MW colocation data centre for SEA Ltd, total costs may add up to RM15-20 billion.

The big drop in Dow Jones last night was due to market disappointment over Fed Chair's hawkish stand for only 2 rate cuts in 2025 (instead of 4 rate cuts as previously guided for). US dollars immediately jumped up against other major currencies.

That is good news to YTL and YTL Power as they repatriate overseas earnings back to Malaysia and future earnings will be higher in ringgit terms. YTLP will be able to write back a substantial portion of the forex loss (RM297m) incurred for a shareholder's loan to Jordan Power in Q1 FY2025.

For YTL, it will be able to recognise higher earnings from overseas subsidiaries including hotels in Australia and Japan, shopping malls in Singapore, the recently acquired NSL Singapore, and more so from future earnings of construction works in the UK.

Recall that the UK has joined CPTPP and there will be no more import tariffs on most materials export from Malaysia including cement and building materials. YTL is set to carry out the planned GBP3.5 billion of capex for Wessex in next few years to 2030, as well as billions of pounds of construction works for other water companies in the UK.

The big drop in Dow Jones last night was due to market disappointment over Fed Chair's hawkish stand for only 2 rate cuts in 2025 (vs 4 rate cuts previously guided for). That is actually a good news to YTL Power as US dollars will remain strong for longer.

We can look forward to a substantial write back of the forex loss (RM297m) incurred in Q1 FY2025 in this upcoming Q2 FY2025 if US dollars continue the strength till 31 Dec 2024.

Furthermore, strong US dollars will help to pump up YTL Power's overseas earnings in ringgit terms in the next few quarters.

The same MIDF report also mentioned about YTL Power having secured another colocation data centre customer for 40MW of load in DC6. In YTL AI website, DC6 is earmarked for an MNC.

That shows that the demand for colocation data centre is still very strong. The remaining space in DC1 was not enough for this new customer MNC who required 40MW, so YTLP started constructing DC6 for this new customer.

If there is another customer who just wants to lease 8MW or 16MW, I think YTLP would put it in DC1 to utilise the remaining space, rather than starting a new DC building in DC4 or DC5. But if YTLP can secure another customer requiring more than 16MW, then it will need to start constructing a new data centre building in DC4 or DC5.

@newbie8080, I appreciate you posted the article for sharing, but I am afraid you have got the key message wrong from the news.

What MIDF was telling you is that YTLP's data centre business is well on track, as the title of the report suggests.

It is certainly not as you first selectively posted "no takers for the remaining 16MW data centre phase", which is highly misleading.

The situation is not as what you thought and what you posted. YTLP's DC1 is a two-storey or 3-storey building with two wings sufficient to house the 32MW of data centre loads for SEA Ltd. But there is spare space in the building where YTL Power could put in extra 16MW of data centre loads for other player or for SEA Ltd's future expansion.

You need to understand that the cost of building the 2-storey building or expanding it to 3 storeys is small compared to the IT equipment to be fitted inside for data centre users. So why not expand it a little more space to cater for any future demand from SEA or any other data centre customer? If YTLP can find customers for the extra 16MW data centre space in DC1, the potential revenue will jump up by 50% (32MW to total 48MW) by just investing a little more in the physical building space.

YTLP already indicated that they may use the remaining 16MW space for YTL AI Labs to develop own AI apps or train LLMs if they cannot lease it out to external parties. But that is the contingency plan.

The third phase, or JDC6, will be a 40MW colocation data centre, which has already secured an off taker and is currently being constructed according to the client’s specifications.

MIDF reinforces earlier reports that a new customer, being an MNC, has signed up for 40MW of colocation data centre at DC6 of YTL Power's Kulai DC Park. That's the latest customer secured by YTLP, indicating that demand for data centres at good PUE rating remains strong.

"There are no off takers yet for the remaining 16MW capacity, but YTL Power is in the talks with prospective clients," it said.

Please read the whole context of the article and not post selective texts only, newbie8080.

DC1 is sized physically for 48MW of colocation data centre loads, with 32MW already taken up on day 1 by SEA Ltd. The remaining 16MW is for other potential customers which YTL Power is talking to.

With a power usage effectiveness (PUE) of 1.30 that beats industry norms, YTL Power colocation data centres will be able to secure more customers in the near future. This is especially so as new data centres are struggling to secure sufficient power and water supply in Johor. As much as 40% of new applications for new data centres in Johor have been rejected so far.

SEA Ltd has requested to bring forward by 6 months the second phase of 8MW data centre to end of this month. Sign of oversupply? I think it is more of desperation to secure data centre space at good PUE rating.

It is amazing for YTL AI Lab to have developed a Malay LLM, ILMU 0.1 so fast!!

ILMU 0.1 beats other older versions of Malay LLM from OpenAI and Sealion in various aspects.

Based on HLIB report, IOIPG will start seeing earnings contribution from its IOI Business Park Office in Xiamen, China from October 2024 onwards after achieving 100% occupancy in Q3 CY2024.

Besides the 370-room Sheraton Grand Hotel of IOIPG in Xiamen, China will complete construction in this quarter, and is on track for opening before CNY next year or Q1 CY2025.

We can expect much higher contribution from the China property segment to IOIPG in coming months.

Net short positions on YTL Power increased by about 1 million shares yesterday to 11.5 million shares at close Thursday or 0.14%.

Net short positions on YTL remained below 0.1%.

Thanks for the clarification @cktay.

It is a known fact that YTL Power is the cheapest big cap in Bursa with PER of just 9x, falling below 8x come FY2026.

But the indicated foreign shareholding level seems too high to me, it is not consistent with the fund flows reports presented by Maybank IB every month.

@cktay, what is the meaning of the last part "we are in single digits; all the other top companies are in double digit high 20s"? Does it refer to foreign funds' holding? or does it refer to the share price in single digit below RM10?

Both local institutional funds and foreign funds are buying into YTL Power now not because of the high TPs given by local analysts, but because of its improving earnings outlook.

Before data centre segmental earnings kick in, the traditional utility businesses (Wessex Waters, PowerSeraya, Jawa Power, Jordan Power, Ranhill Utilities, 5G Yes, UK Brabazon property etc.) are providing solid earnings of over RM3.2 billion net profit (or EPS of 40 sen) a year to YTL Power.

At current share prices, YTL Power is trading at PER of just 9x, a steal for a large cap, much cheaper than other utility companies in Bursa with over 20x PER.

Come 2025, both colocation and AI data centre divisions will start contributing meaningful earnings to YTL Power. Earnings are expected to improve by at least 25% in FY2026 to break RM4.2 billion or EPS of 50 sen. Forward PER is going to fall below 8x. That's a fact funds cannot ignore.

FYI, latest Maybank fund flows report shows that foreign funds net sold a whopping RM588 million worth of Tenaga shares in the month of November 2024. They are seen shifting back to YTL Power in early December trades.

@Beta Ipoh, 我想是柔佛皇室。

I have the latest research report of HLIB that gives a good update on the site visit organised by YTLP to its Kulai DC Park for analysts and fund managers yesterday.

Whoever wants it can pm me at i3 messenger.

Wow that is much higher than the average rate of S$13.00 psf secured for the 68% office space so far.

I think once the final TOP is received later this month, the occupancy rate at IOICB will jump up to at least 80%.

Now the 68% occupancy rate is almost full occupancy for the office space that has received TOP1 and TOP2.

I don't know what certain guy is talking about on PowerSeraya assets.

PowerSeraya is a long term asset of YTL Power, it has 30 years of land lease renewable almost perpetually. PowerSeraya will continue to re-power its fleet of power generating plants as it has been doing in past 20 years.

The oil-fired steam turbines are already not competitive and mothballed, and have since been replaced with more efficient combined-cycle gas turbines, and partly by the newest F-class gas plants acquired from Tuaspring.

PowerSeraya has also won the EMA bid to install a new 600MW hydrogen-ready CCGT in Singapore by end 2027, which will replace the aged CCGTs in time.

@HumpyDumpty, I do not know exactly what you meant up there.

But ringgit continues to weaken against US dollars to RM4.4655 now. YTL Power is set to book in forex gain of around:
(4.4655 - 4.150) x USD600m = RM189 million in the current Q2 FY25 quarter ended 31 Dec 2024.

If ringgit weakens to RM4.65 to USD by 31 Dec 2024, YTLP will book in close to RM300 million of forex gain in this Q2, reversing out the entire RM293m forex loss it booked in last quarter.

@redhotpepper, it will not make a difference even after Trump becomes the president of the US in January, as Biden administration has been imposing various sanctions on China companies in getting advanced US chips.

For YTL Power, it is providing the resources (land, electricity and water etc.) to build data centres in its Kulai DC Park for everyone to lease and use. So far, most of the clients secured are American companies, with SEA Ltd being a Singapore based company.

It does not stop YTLP to lease its data centre space to any Chinese company if they are able to get any AI chips and install them at YTL DC Park. For instance, if Alibaba wants to lease a colocation data centre space at YTL DC Park, just like SEA Ltd, to serve its online platforms in the region, I see no reason why there will be any obstacle or violation of US sanctions.

@ValueInvestor888, most of the things reported by The Star in this article have been reported by various analysts post Q1 results. I will just add one point here.

The article mentions about more stringent regulations on new data centres in Malaysia to be set by the government to protect our resources. I understand that YTL data centres will meet all the requirements whether on power usage effectiveness or water usage effectiveness even based on the more stringent regulations. It is more risky for other new data centres announced in past few months, which have yet secured committed power supply or water supply, these projects are at risk.

There won't be any impact on YTL data centre progress in Kulai, as evidenced by the recent fact that SEA Ltd has requested to accelerate the next 8MW colocation data centre at YTL DC to end of this year from mid 2025. You can also see SEA has reported a blown-out quarterly result. The demand for data centres will remain strong, so I am confident that YTL Power will be in a strong position to secure many more data centre clients to its Kulai DC Park in coming months.

I have the latest report on YTL Power from Macquarie. Whoever wants it can pm me in i3 messenger.

https://themalaysiacorporate.com/2024/11/28/celcomdigi-syarikat-paling-corot-sebenarnya-bina-menara-jendela/

this article talks about the actual scenario behind all the bad headlines

https://themalaysiacorporate.com/2024/11/28/celcomdigi-syarikat-paling-corot-sebenarnya-bina-menara-jendela/

this is the actual scenario behind the news, but this news may get burried soon by MCMC

@Permutation, NST has quickly changed the headline of the news.

Posted by Permutation > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse

@dragon328,
The nst article need to be addressed. no?

Below is the explanation given by YTL to the analysts:

"The Jendela tower contract was tendered out to 14 companies.


KJSB is the tower contractor under YTL Comms and is one of the 14. However, KJSB was not the contractor doing the towers that were allocated to YTL Comms.

The 14 companies were contracted to do towers by region. KJSB was allocated sections in Johor and KJSB finished them ahead of schedule.

The towers that are under the responsibility of YTL Comms which the minister is complaining about are supposed to be done by Edotco and FGV Prodata. Edotco is a subsidiary of CelcomDIgi.

For YTL Comms, we can only install the telecommunications transmitters for connectivity once the tower infrastructure is ready but they are not.

However, we can't put the blame squarely on the contractor because sometimes there are land issues in rural areas especially on orang asli lands and negotiations need to be done.

Second, delays occur due to spectrum assess issues in certain areas that need to be coordinated."

That's the full picture behind the headline news, unfortunately certain media chose to report selectively. But this issue has been clarified to fund managers and analysts.

This NST also has chosen to selectively report on the issue. Please refer to the YTL clarification given in YTLPower forum.

@redhotpepper, if Trump and his team does impose high tariffs on imported goods from all over the world, it will cause high inflation in the US and make US Fed less aggressive in cutting interest rates. As a result, US dollars will be stronger for longer as interest rates will stay higher for longer.

A strong US dollar will be positive to YTL Power as its earnings in ringgit terms will be higher as it repatriates overseas earnings back from UK, PowerSeraya and Jordan & Indonesia.

YTLP will be able to write back more forex loss incurred in the Q1 quarter (RM293m) in the current quarter Q2 if ringgit continues to be weak against USD by 31 Dec 2024.

Below is the explanation given by YTL to the analysts:

"The Jendela tower contract was tendered out to 14 companies.


KJSB is the tower contractor under YTL Comms and is one of the 14. However, KJSB was not the contractor doing the towers that were allocated to YTL Comms.

The 14 companies were contracted to do towers by region. KJSB was allocated sections in Johor and KJSB finished them ahead of schedule.

The towers that are under the responsibility of YTL Comms which the minister is complaining about are supposed to be done by Edotco and FGV Prodata. Edotco is a subsidiary of CelcomDIgi.

For YTL Comms, we can only install the telecommunications transmitters for connectivity once the tower infrastructure is ready but they are not.

However, we can't put the blame squarely on the contractor because sometimes there are land issues in rural areas especially on orang asli lands and negotiations need to be done.

Second, delays occur due to spectrum assess issues in certain areas that need to be coordinated."

That's the full picture behind the headline news, unfortunately certain media chose to report selectively. But this issue has been clarified to fund managers and analysts.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1433757/fahmi-mcmc-considers-imposing-liquidated-damages-over-delays-in-jendela-phase-1

Read the whole article. CelcomDigi is the worst with 366 towers incomplete, Maxis has 96 incomplete and YTL has 51 incomplete.

That shows how biased FreeMalaysiaToday was in reporting this news. So shameful!

HLIB report is correct. The colocation data centres (DC1 - 48MW currently with SEA, and DC6 - 40MW with a MNC) are 100% owned by YTL Power as I understand.

The 100MW AI data centre with Nvidia is under YTL Comms in which YTL Power has 60% stakes.

I am not sure about DC3 - 80MW AI data centre for a hyperscaler whether it is 100% owned by YTL Power or it is under the 60%-owned YTL Comms.

Very well said, Mabel.

Thank you so much for your support!

You are so good in choosing the right stocks and the right timing.

Good Closing! All technical signs should turn positive with the strong rebound today.

To our success!

@Mabel, borrow your words

@hng33, I did read the comment given by some bankers to IOIPG re the REIT listing of IOICB. tend to agree with Mr. Lee's argument that it should be listed if they can get rental rate of S$15 psf. I would go a step further, just go for the listing once occupancy rate achieves 95%! NO need to wait till rental rate goes up to S$15 psf.
You need to leave some upside to investors who buy into the REIT. And the upside will come when IOICB revises up the rental rate 2 years later.


Posted by hng33 > 31 minutes ago | Report Abuse

He disagrees with suggestions that IOI Central Boulevard Towers is too new to be included in a REIT. Some REIT managers figure they need to let a particular asset “stabilise” first - with at least one leasing cycle of three years- before selling the asset into a REIT. Not so from Lee’s perspective. “If I can lock in at $15, I am happy to leave something behind on the table for other investors,” says Lee, referring to the rental rates and upside he is projecting from leasing out IOI Central Boulevard Towers.

Besides the office REIT, Lee is potentially securitising some of the mall and hospitality assets in Malaysia too. As for IOI Properties itself, Lee will keep its primary listing in Malaysia.

Remark: Singapore REITS may come sooner than Msia REITS

@beginner888, yes the topline increased by 2% y-on-y but you should look at the double digit gain in gross margin, amazing!

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/dragon328/2024-11-27-story-h475503050-YTL_YTL_Power_Q1_FY2025_Resilience_is_the_Key

My update report for your leisure read

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/dragon328/2024-11-27-story-h475503050-YTL_YTL_Power_Q1_FY2025_Resilience_is_the_Key

My update report for your leisure read

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/dragon328/2024-11-27-story-h475503050-YTL_YTL_Power_Q1_FY2025_Resilience_is_the_Key

My update report for your leisure read

@Aero1, USEP is not a good guide to PowerSeraya profits. I have explained few times on this, and do not mind saying it again here.

All gencos in Singapore operate in a vertical integrated business model in which each owns generating plants and also retails arm to sell electricity to end consumers. All electricity generated by each genco needs to be sold first to the wholesale electricity pool which clears the electricity price on half-an-hour basis based on supply and demand. That sets the USEP.

Each retails electricity company has to purchase electricity from the wholesale pool then only sell to their end consumers. So retailers pay the USEP, and gencos get paid the USEP.

In the vertical integrated structure, a power company in Singapore like PowerSeraya enters into contracts for differences (CfDs) with its own retails arm for the electricity the power arm generates, hence taking out the risks associated with the price fluctuations in the pool.

As an illustration, say a genco sells 100 MWh of electricity into the pool in the half-an-hour period from 9.00am-9.30am at an USEP price of S$120/MWh, then its retails arm buys 100MWh of electricity from the pool at also S$120/MWh.

But S$120/MWh pool price is below the generating cost of the power company at say S$150/MWh, so in order to protect its generating margin, the power company enters into a CfD with its own retails arm to sell the 100MWh of electricity at say S$210/MWh, i.e. the retails arm will pay the difference in CfD price and the pool price to the generating company, S$210-$120 = S$90/MWh to the power generating company so that effectively the power generating company will get a net selling price of S$210/MWh irrespective of the pool price, and earn a gross generating margin of S$210 - S$150 = S$60/MWh.

Then the retails arm will sell the electricity to end users at say S$215/MWh to take a small retails margin of S$5/MWh.

As an vertical integrated power group, the genco effectively earn S$60/MWh (gross generating margin) + S$5/MWh (retails margin) = S$65/MWh of total gross margin.

Hope this explains the situation in real business on the ground.

Excellent quarterly results from Mcement with profits jumping up some 47% year-on-year due to continued improvements in operational efficiencies and lower production costs. Despite a slightly lower topline, earnings jumped up substantially to a new high with gross margin improved by 5% to a new high of 34.5%.

Continued plant improvements like waste heat recycling and higher plant efficiency will last a long way for the company to keep scaling new highs in quarters to come.

YTL delivered a good set of results for Q1 FY2025 with core PBT of RM1.188 billion, after removing the extraordinary item of forex loss (RM290m) from a shareholder loan to Jordan Power.

The bright spot is in the cement division with a 47% rise in pretax profit due to improvements in operational efficiencies and lower production costs. That resulted in a 5% improvement in gross margin to a new high of 34.5% in Q1. The improvements should have come from continued efforts in reducing waste heat, recycling wastes and improved plant efficiency, which will continue for quarters to come.

YTL Power delivered a credible set of results for Q1 FY2025, with core net profit of RM803 million, after removing the extraordinary item of a forex loss of RM293m for a shareholder loan to the Jordan Power project entity.

This forex loss shall be reversed in this quarter Q2 if ringgit continues to be weak against the US dollar and closes at anything weaker than RM4.12 as of 30 September 2024. If based on the current rate of RM4.48, the potential forex gain to be booked in Q2 will be RM210 million.

So, the core net profit is within my earlier projected range of RM800-850 million. It was at the lower end as Yes 5G turned into a small loss again after turning around in Q4 FY2024. I expect YTLP to deliver such steady net profit of RM800-850m every quarter in Q2 and Q3 FY2025 before AI data centre earnings start to kick in.

@bullrun2025, I cannot do much besides just holding onto what I have.

My average entry cost is about RM2.20, same level as foreign funds who bought in Mar-June 2024. So I am not worried of any large scale selling by funds below RM2.00. I still see good support at RM1.80-2.00 level.

As the prospects of IOIPG are still very good in 2025, I see most funds will hold on for medium to long term investments.

No doubt, there are some funds who are disappointed with the temporary earnings lull of IOIPG in this quarter and next. They are selling now, but the falling share price should attract other funds to come in for longer term investment.

From the tone of the management at briefing, it sounds to me that setting up a commercial REIT in Malaysia may come even earlier than the Singapore REIT for IOICB which will still need time for its occupancy rate to ramp up to 90% or above.

On the other hand, IOI City Mall is already ready for injection into a REIT, as Phase 1 has been in operations since November 2014 and Phase 2 was opened in August 2022. The occupancy rate at IOI City Mall has surpassed 96%, and the group is planning for Phase 3. IOIPG could package IOI City Mall Phase 1 & 2, together with IOI Mall Puchong and IOI Mall Kulai in an initial setting up of the REIT almost immediately, though it may get higher valuation after IOI City Mall Phase 2 goes through one round of rental renewal in August 2025 (after 3 years of operations). The listing of these 3 malls could fetch a valuation of over RM6.5 billion.

Then after the completion of the acquisition of Tropicana Gardens Mall in Q1 2025, and once the occupancy rate at TGM ramps up from the currently 76% to over 90%, this mall can then be injected into the REIT. This mall could fetch a valuation of over RM1.0 billion (compared to the acquisition cost of RM680m by IOIPG).

If needed, the commercial REIT could be expanded by injecting the matured office towers of IOIPG, which could fetch another RM2 billion or so.

The 5,000-room-strong hotel arms of IOIPG would be another prime assets for injecting into a hospitality REIT worth some RM2.0-2.5 billion.

@Jesse1314, that is a valid concern. I believe the DC player only signed a letter of intent, and not an outright sale because of the uncertainties around power supply and other authority approvals. But I am confident that they should be able to seal the deal in 2025 and resolve the other constraints for the DC player.


Posted by Jesse1314 > 7 minutes ago | Report Abuse

There is report / news that Johor is not approving DC projects due to constraint in resources.

I guess any potential land deals for DC will make purchasers think twice. Especially those SPA that is yet to complete.

Once IOICB is REITed, the group borrowings will get reduced by SGD2.0 billion and hence interest expenses reduced by RM268 million a year. If IOIPG lists up 50% stakes of IOICB, it will book in higher profit of RM135 million a year purely from savings in interest expenses. If we include much less depreciation charge (assuming SGD60m a year) of IOICB and no tax (assuming tax saving of SGD10m a year) with the REIT structure, IOIPG will book in extra profit of SGD70m/2 or RM230m/2 a year to bring the total earnings contribution from IOICB REIT to RM250 million a year for its 50% stakes.

And the group net gearing will be reduced to 0.4x from currently 0.73x, to be inline with peers. That will be the game changer.

But as you said, I am placing more hope on IOICB ramping up the occupancy rate to over 90% by end June 2025 then IOIPG will be able to inject it into a REIT. It will get back at least SGD2.0 billion of cash to pare down the borrowings at IOICB to SGD1.0 billion or below, then the group will be on a much stronger footing.

Besides this, I am also optimistic of the industrial park segment performance in 2025. I read that they have managed to secure few parcels of industrial lots sale at its IOI Industrial Park Banting in just few weeks of launch. I am also optimistic of the 80 acre land sale to a DC player in its Industrial Park at Iskandar.

@UncleFollower, yes Marina View Residences will be a drag to IOIPG earnings if they are not willing to lower the selling price. I do not see any chance for them to sell any unit in Marina View Residences at SGD5,000 psf if there are still units on offer at SGD2k-4k in surrounding area. The only chance is to get their business partners to each buy one or two units, but it will never get to even 10% sales of the 668 units on offer.

Posted by UncleFollower > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

Their land cost was $1379psf ppr. Marina Bay Residences is selling between 2-3k psf, and Marina One 2-4kpsf currently depending on view. Poreans pay A LOT for the view. IOIPG intends to price it at around 100% premium over the closest projects 😅