dragon328

dragon328 | Joined since 2021-06-01

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2024-02-20 17:08 | Report Abuse

@cgtan2020, I don't have enough info to make a meaningful comparison of Sembcorp's 1H and 2H results.

The headlines say its 2023 2H earnings were 15% higher than 2022 2H, and I do not know if its 2023 2H earnings were higher or lower than 2023 1H earnings.

May need to wait for its corporate presentation slides or analysts' briefing notes to come out then only can get more info.

Anyway, Sembcorp or Keppel has a lot more other assets like renewable energy assets overseas and Keppel has sizable property division and data centre REIT, so the results may not reflect entirely on PowerSeraya's performance. We need to only focus on their Singapore power business.

Both companies are optimistic of their Singapore power business division for next 2-3 years, that's what I was looking for.

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2024-02-19 16:03 | Report Abuse

Berjaya's proposal offers nothing better. They just propose setting up MLFF at less toll roads so the cost can be lowered by 30%. Furthermore, it proposes for the MLFF infra to be built by each highway concessionaires so that Berjaya will not need to come out with capital. It just wants to be a toll collecting agent and earn a commission.

Posted by xiaochen > 38 minutes ago | Report Abuse

@Paul Tan
The possibility is there. Thanks for giving hint.

Berjaya to challenge YTL for MLFF highway toll project?
https://soyacincau.com/2024/02/19/berjaya-challenge-ytl-mlff-highway-toll-project/

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2024-02-19 11:38 | Report Abuse

Profit taking in a long rally is normal. I see quite many people took profit on YTLP around RM4.00-4.20 as that was their first target after getting 200%-300% profit. I have nothing to comment on the profit taking as it is entirely normal for investors to lock in handsome profit. The current share price weakness seems to be a good chance for these people to buy back.

Irrespective of the share price fluctuations, I always fall back to fundamentals. As long as the earnings continue to grow, share price appreciation will follow. Simple as that. Let the numbers in the upcoming quarterly results speak for the company prospects.

I see good chances for us who got it low around RM0.70 to get 7 bags pretty soon, before we look at a 10-bagger.

I see a

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2024-02-15 09:44 | Report Abuse

British inflation held flat at 4.0% for Jan 2024, which is a good sign for Wessex to turn around sooner.

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2024-02-13 11:10 | Report Abuse

@Goldberg, this is excellent news for YTL to start the new year of the dragon!

More foreign funds will buy into YTL which is a laggard in the recent construction and property plays rally.

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2024-02-13 09:07 | Report Abuse

I have explained several times on the debt situation at YTL Power, most of the debts are ring-fenced at the various assets level. The holding company level in fact has a net cash position.

If some parties do not understand the meaning of debt ring fencing, we need not argue with them. Foreign funds do understand.

AS Mabel calculated, YTL Power gearing is at about 58%, which is typical of any utility company. FYI, Wessex Waters has a gearing of 65% to 70% which is a norm for all other water companies in the UK. That's perceived to be a well geared and capital efficient structure by foreign funds and UK regulator.

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2024-02-13 09:02 | Report Abuse

@investopology, this is excellent news!!

More foreign funds will buy into YTL & YTL Power after the inclusion into MSCI index which is widely followed by foreign funds.

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2024-02-09 17:00 | Report Abuse

Happy CNY to all!

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2024-02-09 17:00 | Report Abuse

Happy CNY to all!

Have a good break to recharge before welcoming a prosperous year of the dragon!

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2024-02-09 16:58 | Report Abuse

Good closing before CNY.

I wish all of you a very good holiday break followed by a prosperous year of the dragon.

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2024-02-09 11:39 | Report Abuse

AffinHwang research analyst this morning issued an update report on Tenaga and revealed that Tenaga's 1,010MW coal-fired power plant in Manjung 4 has been offline since early December 2023 due to severe fractures in the intermediate pressure steam turbine. The plant is expected to be down until late 2024. Tenaga earnings in 2024 will be affected, as a result AffinHwang reduces its earnings projection for Tenaga by 7% to RM4.0 billion for Dec FY2024.

However, Affin raises the target price for Tenaga to RM12.00 by adjusting lower the WACC to 6.5% from 6.8% in its DCF valuation.

See this is how analysts try to support GLC stocks by using "innovative" valuation method. To me this is not a bad thing, it will only help to justify a higher valuation for YTL Power.

At its tp of RM12.00, Tenaga will have a market cap of RM69.5 billion or at a forward PER of 17.4x.

In comparison, YTL Power's net profit for June FY2025 may top RM4.0 billion on par with Tenaga's FY2024 earnings, but its market cap is not only half of Tenaga's. How would one justify this??

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2024-02-09 11:10 | Report Abuse

Having said that, I think it is still likely for YTLP to hit your target price of RM5.88 in next few months:

FY2025 EPS of 49 sen x forward PER of 12x = RM5.88.

I am confident that the market will eventually accord a higher PER to YTL Power after it is convinced that PowerSeraya earnings can sustain forward. After all, Tenaga is trading at 20x FY2023 PER and may be over 20x forward PER on FY2024 earnings as its Manjung power plant gets hit by a major overhaul downtime to end of this year.

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2024-02-09 11:07 | Report Abuse

@darrenliew, I am afraid that I may have to tamper your expectation a little bit. I think EPS of 15.47 or net profit of RM1,253 million for this Dec 2023 quarter and for next 2 quarters may be a little stretched. I would be happy if it can just top Q1 FY2024 net profit of RM850 million, but will not discount the possibility for it to top RM1.0 billion each quarter.

As projected earlier, I think it is more likely for YTLP net profit to hit above RM1.0 billion mark from FY2025, if lucky it may hit RM1.1 billion a quarter. I think we may need to wait till FY2026 before quarterly net profit can hit the RM1.25 million mark, when the AI data centre division gains more tractions.

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2024-02-08 11:29 | Report Abuse

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/700229

YTL is scooping up quality assets at bargain prices. Its various business divisions are expanding and growing fast after the pandemic - utilities, cement, hotels, property and construction

Share price is playing catch up with YTL Power.

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2024-02-08 10:52 | Report Abuse

@dollardollarbill, thanks for the news link. This is a timely announcement from PBA.

Despite the recent tariff hike, the water tariff of Penang remains as one of the lowest in Malaysia. This paves the way for more hikes 3 years later.

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2024-02-08 08:53 | Report Abuse

@Raymond Tiruchelvam, we should not be too concerned with foreign exchange rate movements, more important is the underlying business core earnings. If PowerSeraya earnings continue to be strong, even if ringgit strengthens to RM3.00 to SGD, the profit contribution from PowerSeraya to YTL Power will be lowered by 15% accounting wise.

But cash is cash, YTLP may choose to have the cash parked in Singapore when the ringgit is too strong and the company does not require the cash, and only repatriate the cash back when SGD is strong. Or it can choose to utilise the cash for future projects in Singapore or in the region.

The company business is a long term asset and any FX fluctuation should not affect the company operations and earnings, it only affects the accounting profit calculations.

If you think the current rate of SGD1.00 = RM3.55 is high, think again. Those Malaysians working in Singapore rushed to change their Sing dollars into ringgit when the FX rate touched RM3.30 all time high few months ago, now they are wondering if they should sell off their Sing dollars in hand.

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2024-02-08 00:12 | Report Abuse

Now YTL Power shares are hot but valuation is still cheap at less than 10x PER. And there are still many good news and developments coming in next few months. Even when it hits RM5.00, the PER will be just 11x (based on Hong Leong projected earnings for FY2025).

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2024-02-08 00:09 | Report Abuse

@Agjl, my suggestion is that you do review your investment goals and options as the share price goes up, as we do not know when it will touch RM5.00 or if at all.

If another better investment option appears, then it will make your decision easier and you just switch over even if the share price has not reached RM5.00.

If there is no better option, then you just hold on until the share price has gone up so much that it has become over-valued to you and on normal valuation methods, eg. PER becomes higher than 25x.

I think this way is easier, and you don't need to think too much now and can have a good sleep.

When it becomes too over-valued, there will be signs you can notice easily, just like the gloves stocks that hit RM30 in 2021 when the pandemic was coming to an end and you knew that glove companies' earnings would drop drastically to cause the stocks' PER over 30x.

But there was still analyst that gave sky high target price up to RM100, and people from all walks of life without any investment knowledge just jumped into the bandwagon. That was the time to get out when such euphoria happened.

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2024-02-07 23:57 | Report Abuse

@Agjl, I do not have a definite answer right now. If YTL Power share price hits RM5.00, most likely I will still hold on as my long term target is much higher than this.

As my entry cost is low at below RM1.00, so a dividend payout of 10-15 sen a year will yield me 15% - 20% on my entry cost, so it will serve as an excellent passive income stream from my invested capital. It is rather hard to find another stock or other investment options that can yield me that much.

For your case, it will depend on your entry cost and your investment goals. If your entry cost is low enough so that the dividend yield can be 7% or higher on your entry cost, then keeping the shares will be a good investment choice. If your entry cost is high, and you can find other investment choice that gives higher yields then you may consider disposing gradually as you switch to the other higher yield options.

I have heard arguments saying that disposing the shares at RM5.00 would give an immediate gain equivalent to many years of dividends. There is certainly merit to such argument, but I would suggest further thoughts to this decision.

Say if you dispose the shares at RM5.00 and put all the money to bank fixed deposits that give you 3% interests a year or put back to EPF that gives dividend yields of 4.2% to 6.9% p.a.
The advantage is that you de-risk on your capital investment, but the disadvantage is that you will no longer enjoy any upside from the company growth and any further capital appreciation of YTLP share price. Who knows, it may continue going up to RM7.00 or RM10.00 or RM15.00 some 10 years later. But your capital in the bank fixed deposit or in EPF remains the same as before.

and who knows the company continues to grow earnings and declare higher dividends every year, from 4% to 8% to 12% some 10 years later on your entry cost. But your passive income from the bank fixed deposits remain at 3% every year and EPF still gives dividends around 6% p.a.

I am a believer in the wealth creation effect from the stock market much better than any other investment options, as statistics already shows that investments in US SP500 in the past 100 years has beaten handsomely investments in bonds or fixed income options.

If you do not believe in that, you should probably not invest in the stock market and put all your money in bank fixed deposits or put cash or gold bar under the bed.

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2024-02-07 23:35 | Report Abuse

@Abcdefg123456789, I think I have answered your question before, and sorry I have no crystal ball and cannot predict any target price until year end. It depends a lot on developments at the company as well as market sentiment.

If market sentiment is good as we have stability in local politics and more and more foreign funds coming in, then YTLP share price may go up faster (within next 6 months) and higher (PER up to 15x).

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2024-02-07 23:29 | Report Abuse

@cktay, I think the year you referred to above is Wessex's financial year ended 31 March.

For the 5-year regulatory period from FY2011 to FY2015, the allowed return on asset was quite good and inflation was muted, so Wessex's net profit was good around GBP100-150m each year. Then Wessex got a higher allowed return on asset (WACC) for the following 5-year regulatory period from FY2016 to FY2020, that's why profit jumped to GBP164m in FY2016 to reflect the higher return on asset and higher Regulatory Capital Value (RCV). Then net profit dropped gradually in FY2017 to FY2019, which I think was due to higher operating costs and higher provisions for index-linked bonds (ILBs) (because Wessex issued more and more ILBs). The big drop in net profit in FY2020 was partly due to Covid-19 pandemic that drove operating costs much higher and there was an under-recovery of operating cost allowance in the water tariffs (as the base operating cost allowance was set in 2014 for the 5-year regulatory period of FY2015-2020).

Then Wessex got a much lower allowable return on capital (approved WACC of just 2.92% vs company proposal of 3.60%) for the 5-year regulatory period of FY2021 - FY2025. That's why Wessex's net profit dropped to GBP66-67m a year in FY2020 and FY2021. Wessex suffered a loss in FY2022 and FY2023 mainly due to non-cash provisions for ILBs as inflation was running high at 7%-10% which caused a significant jump in the interest expenses of the ILBs.

The good thing is that inflation in the UK is coming down, and hence provisions for ILBs will be lower going forward. If RPI can come down to the long term normal 2% p.a., I estimate that provisions for ILBs may reduce to below GBP25 million a year from GBP71m in FY2023 and estimated GBP67m in FY2024.

As RCV has expanded to GBP4.0 billion as of 31 Mar 2023, and is estimated to expand to GBP4.3 billion by 31 Mar 2024, so the allowed return on capital for FY2025 may be estimated at GBP4.3b x 2.92% = GBP125m, and if inflation does come down to 2% p.a., then provision for ILBs can come down to GBP25m a year, so Wessex's net profit may come to GBP125m - GBP25m = GBP100 million for FY2025.

For the next 5-year regulatory period of FY2026-2030, Wessex's proposed capex plan is much bigger than before, as is the capex plan proposed by all other water companies in the UK due to more stringent regulations on ESG. If approved by Ofwat, Wessex's RCV will expand from GBP4.5b as of 31 Mar 2025 by another GBP3.5b to almost GBP8.0 billion by 2030.

Then, if the approved return on capital is around 3.0% still, then Wessex net profit may jump up to GBP8.0bn x 3.0% = GBP240 million in FY2030.

If the approved return on capital is higher at 3.60% as proposed by the company, Wessex net profit may hit GBP288 million or RM1.73 billion a year (on GBP1.00 = RM6.00) or may top RM2.0 billion if british pounds appreciate to RM7.00 then.

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2024-02-07 15:07 | Report Abuse

GBP1.00 = RM6.01
SGD1.00 = RM3.55

Looks like YTLPower earnings for Q3FY2024 will get a further boost.

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2024-02-07 11:05 | Report Abuse

See he forecast net profit of RM3,643m for FY2025 and RM3,736m for FY2026 for YTL Power.

This is more or less inline with what I have projected and shared before:
PowerSeraya SGD800m -5% to be more conservative = SGD760m = RM2,660m
Wessex Waters GBP100m = RM600m
Jordan Power RM500-600m take RM500m to be conservative

Add up net profit contribution from these 3 assets, we get RM3,760 million a year

I expect Yes 5G to turn around but profit contribution will not be significant in FY2025. Digital bank will only start in 2H 2024 and it may take 2-3 years to break even. Jawa Power profit will be enough to offset any startup losses in the digital bank. 1st phase data centre with SEA to contribute PBT of RM100m there about in FY2025 but I prefer to see the maiden profit contribution in Q3 2024 first to gauge the earnings impact. AI data centre will complete 1st phase in 2H 2024 and I have not much clue on its profit contribution.

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2024-02-07 10:56 | Report Abuse

Daniel Wong of Hong Leong equity research has been one of the most professional and non-biased analysts so far, his effort should be applauded. I believe his equity clients are laughing all the way to the bank.

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2024-02-07 10:54 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/hleresearch/2024-02-05-story-h-189313588-Technical_Tracker_HLIB_Retail_Research_ndash_02_February_2024

Hong Leong analyst is very good, and consistent in his analysis and recommendation. The few lines in the article on YTL Power basically summarise the outlook for the company.

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2024-02-06 20:40 | Report Abuse

@beinvested, yes you can see how rich the premium in C48 :

RM0.15 (issue price) x 5 + RM3.50 = RM4.25 vs current price of RM3.87, i.e. a premium of 9.8%. So RHB has earned this premium when issuing C48 at 15 sen this morning, and earned a higher premium of 11.8% when retailers bought up C48 to RM0.165.

When you see the new C49 listing tomorrow, you may fall off the chair, as the premium will be RM0.15 x 8 + RM4.60 = RM5.80 vs current price of RM3.87, i.e. a premium of 50%. This shows how bullish AMbank is on YTLP share performance over next 9 months. But it is rather puzzling that Ambank target price for YTL Power is only RM5.10 or thereabout, way lower than the targeted premium price of RM5.80 implied by C49.

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2024-02-06 20:32 | Report Abuse

Maybank just issued a new call warrant C47 on YTLP and will not have any call warrant expiring until end of May 2024, so I expect Maybank to likely upgrade YTLP by end of the month.

CIMB has a call warrant expiring end of this month, so I do not expect CIMB to give any meaningful upgrade before end of Feb.

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2024-02-06 20:29 | Report Abuse

Now at least we have seen Hong Leong, RHB and Macquarie analysts concurring with my view that PowerSeraya earnings will sustain until 2026, I expect more analysts will get convinced after the Dec 2023 quarterly result is announced later this month and the rest will upgrade after the March quarterly result announcement in May 2024. The remaining who still do not upgrade have their own agenda and we wouldn't need to bother with their reports anymore.

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2024-02-06 20:23 | Report Abuse

@Agjl, yes you are right that investment banks typically rush to issue new call warrants on a stock when they think that the underlying stock will go up meaningfully in the following few months, so that they can sell the new call warrants at a high premium. Also when the underlying stock goes up or when investors also think that the mother stock will go up meaningfully then only they will buy the new call warrants at a premium.

If the investment banks have bought sufficient mother share for cover when they issue new call warrants, substantial capital will be tied up for the duration of the call warrants typically for 6 months to 9 months.

Take an example on the latest call warrant on YTL Power, C49 issued by Ambank and to be listed tomorrow. If Ambank plans to sell 80 million shares of the new call warrants C49, it will have to buy or borrow 10 million shares of YTL Power mother shares to cover the call warrants. Hence, Ambank will have to have capital of some RM38 million for the next 9 months to 30 Oct 2023 when C49 expires. RHB when issuing C48 will have to allocate capital of 100m/5 = 20m x RM3.80/share = RM76 million for 9 months.

If they don't think YTLP share will go up meaningfully (at least to the premium conversion price) within the next 9 months, then they wouldn't have issued the call warrants, as no investor will buy their call warrants if they think YTLP will not go up that much, and the investment banks' committed capital in the mother shares will be gone wasted without much gain in this batch of call warrant issuance.

We have seen the same in glove stocks in 2020 when investment banks issued lots of call warrants on TopGlove, Harta or Supermax, and indeed all glove stocks shot up at least 5x to 20x in the following 6-9 months.

But YTLPower is not like glove stocks which saw their profits plummeting after Covid-19. YTL Power will see its earnings remaining strong and growing for years to come, as it is involved in utilities sector that is defensive and new digital economic sector like AI data centre and digital bank which will provide the growth.

Utilities assets like Wessex Waters will see earnings rebounding strongly from April 2024, which no analyst has factored in. For the next 5 regulatory years, capex plans are aggressive and hence RCV will expand fast from currently 4.0 billion pounds to over 7.0 billion pounds by 2030. That is also not yet factored in by analysts. Wessex Waters concession is perpetual, so its earnings will just expand every year for the next 30, 50, 100 years and beyond.

Jordan power earnings will be recognised in full once the arbitration case is settled favourably to YTLP, and earnings will expand every year from 2024 as project financing loans are progressively paid off and interest expenses reduce accordingly. Just a rough calculation, as the USD1.6 billion of project loans get paid off progressively, interest expenses will reduce from roughly USD100 million a year to zero in say 15 years. Hence in 15 years, net profit contribution from Jordan Power to YTLPower will increase by RM210 million a year from the 16th year to 30th year, with the option of extension for another 10 years.

Local analysts are still not convinced of the sustainability of PowerSeraya's earnings, as some forecast PowerSeraya's earnings to drop by half in 2026. I have said enough of the sustainability of PS earnings, now only time will prove it right.

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2024-02-06 19:57 | Report Abuse

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/699966

3-storey link houses fully sold. Townhouses are 80% sold according to the news article

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2024-02-06 16:48 | Report Abuse

ya all the link houses priced at RM1.38 million each have been 100% sold out. Amazing

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2024-02-06 16:30 | Report Abuse

@hng33, noted your point above.

I will need to try to find out more breakdown of the borrowings for each Genting entity.

But the anticipated interest rate cuts in the US in 2024 will benefit greatly Genting group as a whole. A lower interest rate will also make the asset value of Genting Las Vegas and New York casino asset higher and the amplifying effect is tremendous even for a 1% or 2% cut in interest rates.

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2024-02-06 16:23 | Report Abuse

For example, Ambank is issuing a new call warrant C49 on YTLP with a conversion price of RM4.60 and conversion ratio of 8 to 1. Expiry on 30 Oct 2024.

At the issue price of RM0.15 per call warrant, the indicative premium will be at 52.8%, and the mother share will need to go up to RM5.80 for the call warrant to break even at the issue price of 15 sen.

If retailers buy into the new call warrants, Ambank immediately earn a 52% premium from this batch of call warrant issuance. and they seem confident in selling out the new call warrants.

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2024-02-06 16:12 | Report Abuse

Don't need to get too excited when share price rallies up and no need to get so depressed when share price is temporarily pressed down. Especially for those who don't do trading everyday or contra plays.

Taking a breather along the way is always good for a long rally to sustain for months. The current share price correction is giving some investors a chance to take profit and regroup, and at the same time giving a second chance for others who have missed out earlier to buy into and participate the next rally of YTLP. I believe some local funds are using this correction to have the reason to buy into YTL Power now.

Also the current share price weakness is giving a chance for investment banks to buy mother shares low before they issue new call warrants on YTLP. In past 2 weeks alone, we are seeing 4 new call warrants on YTLP issued by Macquarie, Maybank, RHB and Ambank. These banks obviously see further upsides in YTLP shares in next few months as they roll out new call warrants.

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2024-02-06 16:05 | Report Abuse

@Apple888, be patient. At least the heavy selling of last 2 days seems to have abated today. It is on track to achieve a temporary bottom soon before the next rally up.

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2024-02-06 15:48 | Report Abuse

@ChloeTai, be patient. A rally will come sooner or later.

The previous rally to RM5.03 was halted by the news of related party transaction (RPT) of Genm injecting another USD100 million into Empire Resorts.

Actually to the market in general, the RPT did not bode well in the short term for Genm, but to me there is merit in that deal. Let me explain below.

Genm had about USD1.75 billion of US dollar borrowings as of 30 Sept 2023, and out of this, I estimate that USD800 million sat in Empire Resorts, and the balance USD750m in Resorts World New York City. Assuming an average interest rate of 5.5% p.a., total interest expenses at Empire Resorts amounted to USD44 million or RM206 million a year.
For 9 months ended 30 Sept 2023, Genm had a total share of losses from associates of RM170 million, the bulk of which was from Empire Resorts. You can see from above that interest expenses for the 9 months might have amounted to RM150 million. Hence Empire Resorts' operating losses for the 9 months were just about RM20 million.

Now with the USD100m injection from Genm, Empire Resorts' total borrowing can be lowered by USD100m and interest expenses can be lowered by USD5.5 million a year or RM19.3 million for 9 months.

This RPT will pave the way for a faster turnaround of Empire Resorts, as shown above. Furthermore, Empire Resort management earlier estimated that mobile sports betting could contribute USD40 million of EBITDA in 2024. So all things point to a positive turnaround of Empire Resorts in 2024.

With the latest RPT, Genm's effective shareholding in Empire Resorts will increase to 90% from 76% and hence Genm will be able to account for higher % of earnings from Empire Resorts when it is about to turn profitable.

So to me this is not a bad deal for Genm and Genting, it is just that the market's initial reaction to the RPT is negative as Empire Resorts was still loss making. But the market perception will change to positive once Empire Resorts turns around later this year.

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2024-02-06 15:33 | Report Abuse

So I need to revise my figures on interest savings above. For total borrowings of USD4.85 billion, a 1% interest rate reduction in 2024 will save interest expenses of Genting Las Vegas by USD48 million or RM228 million a year.

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2024-02-06 15:32 | Report Abuse

@hng33, Yes I check the page on segmental assets & liabilities. But these liabilities figures here do not reflect the total borrowings of the group.

As of 30 Sept 2023, Genting had a total of USD 6.6 billion of borrowings in US dollars, and zero borrowing in Singapore dollar. I know Genting Singapore has zero borrowing but net cash of some SGD3.0 billion.

Out of the USD 6.6 billion borrowings, about USD1.75 billion sat in Genm (in Resorts World New York City and Empire Resorts), so there was some USD4.85 billion (or RM22.7 billion) of borrowing at Genting Las Vegas as of 30 Sept 2023 supporting the total asset value of RM25.8 billion.

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2024-02-06 14:13 | Report Abuse

@hng33, yes Genting Las Vegas is becoming a significant earnings contributor to Genting as it is a 100%-owned subsidiary.

Genm EBITDA for Sept 2023 quarter was RM714m while Genting US & Bahamas EBITDA for Sept 2023 quarter was RM370m. Taking out minority interests, Genm contributed about RM355 million of EBITDA to Genting in Sept 2023 quarter, lower than the EBITDA contribution from Genting US. You are right there.

However, as Genting US subsidiaries are still suffering from high interest rates and higher gearing, so the net profit contribution from US Las Vegas is still not significant yet. Assuming total debts of about USD4.0 billion at Genting Las Vegas and average interest rates of 5.0% p.a., total interest expenses may amount to USD200 million a year, or USD50m or RM235m a quarter. So the EBITDA of RM370m per quarter will be knocked down to RM135m after interest expenses even before accounting for depreciation charges.

But things are looking brighter for Genting Las Vegas and New York Empire Resorts as US Fed is expected to reduce interest rates by at least 3 times in 2024. A 1% reduction in effective interest rates will reduce Genting Las Vegas' interest expenses by USD40 million and bump up profit contribution to Genting by RM188 million a year.

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2024-02-06 12:11 | Report Abuse

Genting is looking set to report another stellar quarterly result for Dec 2023.

GenS registered EBITDA of SGD350m and net profit of SGD216m for Sept 2023 quarter. If Marina Bay Sands latest quarterly result is of any indication, GenS should report higher earnings for Dec 2023 than Sept 2023. A presumed net profit of SGD220m for Dec 2023 will translate into SGD220m x 3.52 x 52.5% = RM406 million net profit contribution to Genting.

Genm reported core net profit of RM237 million for Sept 2023 quarter. To be conservative, I assume Genm to report a net profit of RM200m inline with Maybank's estimate. So Genm will contribute another RM100m of net profit contribution to Genting.

Contribution from GenS and Genm already amount to over RM500 million net profit to Genting, plus Genting Plantations, oil & gas division, power and property divisions. All in, I think it is not a big issue for Genting to achieve net profit close to RM550 million or EPS of 14 sen for Dec 2023 quarters and subsequent quarters. Full year EPS may be about 56 sen, inline with Maybank latest projection for FY2024.

Applying a historical average PER of 12x to 15x, Genting should be worth RM6.72 to RM8.40 per share just based on FY2024 earnings.

We have not yet added potential good news from TauRx and potential listing of the US assets, which should push the share price beyond RM10.

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2024-02-05 15:48 | Report Abuse

@Abcdefg123456789, many investors naturally get a little nervous when seeing the heavy selldown of YTL Power shares in these 2 days. I am not sure of any particular reason why the selldown happens, and won't bother to speculate.

I have checked and found that YTL Power fundamentals are still intact with earnings set to grow further in coming quarters. I am more of a long term investors so I won't bother much with any share price correction along the way. As long as earnings continue growing, the share price will eventually follow. Any intermittent correction is me is just noise.

For those on shorter term investment horizon, you may need to use own wisdom and trading skills to set your own short term targets for profit taking or for more accumulation.

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2024-02-05 09:56 | Report Abuse

@HumptyDumpty, yes YTLP shares do not have much insider trading. The current share price weakness is more of normal profit taking after its long rally since early January, and the news of PowerSeraya clinching a new CCGT was more of an excuse for retailers to sell on news, more so when CNY is approaching. That's my read.

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2024-02-05 09:16 | Report Abuse

To me, it is normal for investors to sell on news after the Singapore EMA's award of new CCGT to PowerSeraya and especially after YTLP share price hit a new high last week.

Brace for more profit taking this week. Fundamentals are still intact.

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2024-02-03 17:17 | Report Abuse

@aceofbursa, thanks for the link. Anyway you have already posted 99% of the content. I got the idea already. I do concur with his view that PBA is grossly undervalued, easily worth RM3.50-4.00 per share.

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2024-02-02 16:26 | Report Abuse

@aceofbursa, no I am not a paid subscriber to The Star premium online. Is it possible for you to copy and paste the content somewhere and share with us?

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2024-02-02 16:18 | Report Abuse

don't see any news, guess it is just a more meaningful correction. It has to close the gap of 3.95-4.02 formed a couple of days ago

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2024-02-02 14:02 | Report Abuse

@AceofBursa, can you pls share the article or research report on PBA from Tradeview Capital CEO?

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2024-02-02 13:59 | Report Abuse

@2Invest, you were probably right that just because YTLP tied up with Nvidia in AI data centre business, it does not make YTLP an AI company. In fact, nobody would think YTLP could become an AI company or anything close to one like Nvidia.

And you are right that YTLP is an utility company, and you probably do not know that data centre assets are becoming the next growth phase of the utility sector.

FYI, the market has not given any value yet to YTLP's AI data centre business.

At the current prices, the market is only giving a fair value to PowerSeraya (RM3.80 per share) and half of the value to Jordan Attarat Power (RM0.40 per share).

You are getting all the other assets (Wessex Waters, Yes 5G, digital bank, WTE plant project, the new 600MW hydrogen-ready CCGT of PowerSeraya, MLFF, potential RE export to Singapore etc) of YTLP for free !!!

You may want to reconsider your decision to exit this stock to avoid a bigger regret later.