@cwc1981, YTL's acquisition of NSL Singapore is for gaining entry into the prefab concrete and PBU market of NSL in Singapore, Dubai and Finland, it is faster than building the factories in these countries from scratch.

Furthermore, it will have synergies with YTL own construction business as it is construction the multi-billion data centres for YTL Power at Kulai DC Park and construction hundreds of new homes in YTLP's Brabazon property projects, and will be undertaking the multi-billion pounds of capex programmes for Wessex Waters in next few years.

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While I earlier hoped for YTLP to secure more customers beyond the current 180MW AI data centre and 48MW colocation data centre with SEA, and now it looks like a remote possibility due to the flush of new comers into Johor data centre scene, it may not be a bad thing after all.

At least it makes Johor becoming the magnet of pulling in foreign investments which will benefit utility companies like TNB and Ranhill, land owners like Crescendo, SP Setia and Eco World, and create more new jobs in the state.

All these will make the economy of the state stronger, and easier to attract talents in AI and data centre to the state, and build a more complete eco-system of AI cloud and data centre in Johor. I see these will eventually be good for the long term development and sustainability of YTLP's data centre business in Johor.

I just see a potential glut, which is not a good situation. Late comers will not be able to make money.

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The outlook for AEON is good and the technical chart looks good. But I do not know the reason for the share price rally from RM1.10 to 1.50, I know what you know, I don't know too much.

The selling on YTL Power earlier this week is likely due to expiry of call warrants. There are 6 call warrants on YTL Power expiring this week, with the last 2 expiring tomorrow on 2nd August.

Latest data shows that there has been no notable selling on YTL Power by foreign funds this week, or at least any selling was less than RM5m a day. Instead foreign funds sold big on Tenaga with net selling of RM31m on Monday 29th July but bought some back on Tuesday 30th.

So that implies to me that the selling on YTLP on Monday and Tuesday was likely by local IBs who have call warrants on YTLP expiring but have no intention to issue any new call warrant on YTLP.

@sultan, of course i3 needs funds to run this platform. That's why I said it is not so intelligent to remove posts of genuine investors here for certain agenda. Over time, this will frustrate many and gradually more people will lose faith in this platform and it will not get lower funding and advertisement income

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I am trying to rewrite the posts that have been removed, to the extend that I can still remember

@Aero1, the Airtrunk data centre is AI-ready with liquid cooling technology, but it does not mean that it has installed any AI chip or GPU yet to perform AI cloud computing work.

There have been several fellow investors who pm me to re-write them the posts that have been removed. I am not able to rewrite every single post to each request.

These posts may get removed soon. I suggest those have read them can copy them and help me to repost them later

I believe posts from Mr. OTB have benefitted many i3 investors. When i3 removed the many posts of Mr. OTB, it has deviated from its motto of being intelligence and integrity.

It is not an intelligent move to remove posts by serious investors who have helped many i3 investors to make good money.

It has no integrity if it helps certain parties to remove posts that have contrarian views with its fraction.

Instead it was Maybank and RHB who issued late a technical buy call yesterday morning when the share price was at RM1.43, and they may have caused some of their clients losing money. That's the fact. Removing my posts will not conceal it.

HLIB issued the technical buy call on AEON on Tuesday morning when the share price was at RM1.38, those who followed the call would have made some money as the share price went up to a high of RM1.48 yesterday before profit taking set in.

My posts in YTL Power forum are getting removed again by certain dirty party. As before, please pm me should you need any specific info on YTL and YTLP

Ambank and RHB analysts already published update reports on YTL Power after a site visit to YTLP's Kulai data centre park last week, with plenty of photos on construction progress of the various data centres there. Someone chose to ignore this fact and got my post removed, so unprofessional.

Or else there are various engineers posting in LinkedIn on the construction progress of DC1 (completed for SEA), DC2 and DC3. But I guess someone is not a professional and may not have a LinkedIn account to view it.

Some dirty hands are at play, may be those who are shorting this counter

I will keep posting and see how many of my posts will get removed

Despicable people can try to remove my posts, but it won't stop me from telling the facts and figures.

Ambank and RHB analysts already published update reports on YTL Power after a site visit to YTLP's Kulai data centre park last week, with plenty of photos on construction progress of the various data centres there. Someone chose to ignore this fact and got my post removed, so unprofessional.

Or else there are various engineers posting in LinkedIn on the construction progress of DC1 (completed for SEA), DC2 and DC3. But I guess someone is not a professional and may not have a LinkedIn account to view it.

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Latest data shows that there was no notable selling on YTL Power by foreign funds yesterday (less than RM5m if any). That implies to me that most of the selling on YTLP in past 2 days was done by local funds or IBs before the expiry of 6 call warrants on YTLP this week (1 on 26 July, 1 on 29 July, 1 on 30 July, 2 on 31 July and 1 on 2 Aug 2024).

Let's ride though this week of selling and expiry of call warrants, fundamentals will prevail eventually.

There is no bad news for YTL, only the news of acquisition of NSL Singapore which is a good move to me.

I think the selldown on YTL and YTL Power shares this week is mainly due to expiring of call warrants and IBs trying to press down the share price for lower settlement price.

There are 2 call warrants on YTL expiring tomorrow and 6 call warrants on YTL Power expiring this week.

I believe the share price weakness is temporary and we should just ride through this week of volatility.

Another possible reason for the selldown in YTL Power shares is the expiry of call warrants. There are a total of 6 call warrants on YTL Power expiring this week, and another 3 expiring in August. IBs may use the current weak sentiment to press down the share price further so that the call warrants will be settled at a lower price.

Those who have bought these call warrants please be aware. It happened before.

As for the ESOS, I think those fractions who smear YTL Power on the ESOS should look into the mirror and reflect on what they said and did.

The ESOS has a low exercise price of RM0.57 because it was issued in 2022 when YTL Power share price was hovering around RM0.60. The ESOS was set within the max discount of 10% from prevailing market price, and the ESOS was issued to deserving employees of YTL Power who had been with the group for over 3-5 years.

There is no reason for these people to criticise the ESOS exercise, as they could have bought YTL Power shares at RM0.60 or below in 2022 from the open market. The only reason is a bunch of sour grapes.

Usually there is a moratorium on ESOS share selling for 6 months or 1 year after an employee exercises the ESOS, so YTL Power employees will have to come out with money to exercise the ESOS and then hold it for months or 1 year before they can sell it. It is worse than other retail investors who could have bought from the open market anytime at around RM0.60 in 2022 or RM0.70 in 2023, and then sell it anytime with no time restriction.

These people who criticises the ESOS should reflect on their own investment strategy, on why they could have missed out buying YTL Power shares in the open market at RM0.60-0.70 in 2022-2023, and why they could have missed out again while YTL Power was sold down to RM1.15 in June 2023, and again sold down to RM1.88 in late 2023. And now they should rethink if they will be missing another chance of buying YTL Power low, while the share is being temporarily pressed down by some foreign funds who have switched to Tenaga.

I believe the recent selling on YTL Power is due to the weak draft determination by Ofwat for Wessex Waters. Those foreign funds who have exposure to the UK water sector may have been spooked by the Ofwat's move.

I still believe there is scope for improvement in the final determination in Dec 2024, and history already shows that the second draft is better than the 1st draft.

I do not work for HLIB, but I see their reports are professional and their calls in recent months have been superb and non-biased. Good examples are YTL Power and Sunway which I followed and made good gains in recent months.

YTL Power, on the other hand, is trading at an undemanding PER of just 11.5x FY2024 and 10x FY2025 earnings, falling to just 7.7x FY2026 earnings.

This is totally unjustified for a big cap blue chips and earnings growth of 17% - 30% in FY2024-2026. YTL Power projected net profit of RM3.2b for FY2024, RM3.7b for FY2025 and RM4.8b for FY2026 is comparable with Tenaga's projected earnings of RM3.7b for FY2024, RM4.4b for FY2025 and RM4.5b for FY2026 (Maybank's projection).

Hence, it does not make sense for YTL Power to trade at just 10x PER, or half of Tenaga's valuation. The market will gradually adjust to more equitable valuation for both, eg. either for Tenaga share price to drop by 30% to 15x PER and YTL Power share price to rise by 50% to 15x PER, or for YTL Power share price to double up to 20x PER. I do not expect Tenaga to fall back to 10x PER as Bursa is in a bull market now.

There has not been any notable selling by foreign funds on YTL Power in past 2 days, but foreign funds started offloading Tenaga in a big way yesterday with net selling of RM31 million worth of Tenaga shares yesterday alone.

Fund managers especially foreign funds gradually realise that Tenaga does not deserve a PER of over 20x, as its earnings are not catching up fast enough with the share price rise and definitely not fast enough with the huge capex spending in next few years.

Tenaga is scheduled to spend some RM90 billion in next few years to 2030 to strengthen the power grid, and for that kind spending, Tenaga will rely on the government granting it a good rise in electricity tariffs over next few years to recoup the investment costs. I would not bet on that as any increase in electricity tariffs will drive away foreign investments including the multi-billion investments in new data centres, and increase the cost of doing business for local industries and increase inflation risks, as well as burdening the rakyat with higher electricity bills and reduced disposable income.

Another risk with Tenaga is whether it could raise so much debt and equity money for the planned RM90 billion capex in next 6 years. Assuming 70% gearing, Tenaga will need to raise RM27 billion of equity money in next 6 years, that is RM4.5 billion of equity money every year over next 6 years. I foresee Tenaga's dividend payouts will be badly affected for next 6 years.

How would Tenaga raise RM63 billion of new debts in next 6 years? By issuing bonds non-stop every year, like RM10-11 billion of new bonds issuance every year? Is there a market for such a big issuance? You can forget about bank loans for the big capex, no commercial banks would lend to it after seeing the tight cashflows.

I am not sure how certain financial illiterate guy calculated free cash flow yield.

Based on the 9 month quarterly result to 31 Mar 2024, YTL Power registered operating cashflows of RM3.9 billion (stripping out working capital changes and before capex) and capex of RM2.6 billion, so free cashflows amounted to RM1.3 billion for 9 months, annualised to RM1.7 billion.

So based on current market cap of RM39b, the FCF yield will amount to 4.3%.

As YTL Power is embarking on some major capex projects such as the AI data centre projects, capex is relatively high this year. But when AI data centre is completed next year, it will contribute operating cashflows of easily RM1.0 billion more to YTL Power every year for the first 100MW AI data centre. Then FCF yield for YTL Power will rise to 7%.

The gearing ratio of YTL Power may look on the high side, but it is normal for utility companies.

To note that out of the RM33b total borrowings at YTL Power, slightly over GBP3.0 billion or RM18 billion of debts sit at and are ring-fenced at Wessex Waters level. The gearing for Wessex is healthy at about 68%, similar level as other water companies in the UK (except for Thames Waters which has exceptionally high gearing).

Another US$1.5 billion or RM7.0 billion of borrowings are ring-fenced at Jordan Power level, and will not have any recourse to the parent YTL Power.

PowerSeraya had about SGD1.0 billion of borrowings and has no issue of serving the debts as its operating cashflows are super strong at over SGD800 million a year. PowerSeraya has pared down its debts from over SGD2.0 billion by more than half in the past 2 years.

Stripping out the debts ring fenced at Wessex, Jordan and PowerSeraya, YTL Power only has a few billion of debts at the holding company level, which is fully backed by cash.

PowerSeraya used to have a total of 5 units of old oil-fired steam turbines, each rated at 250MW. As these old units are not as efficient as the newer combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT), they have hardly been running since some 7-8 years ago.

PowerSeraya acquired Hyflux's 398MW CCGT (one of the most efficient unit in Singapore then) in 2022, and had to de-register some of the old oil-fired steam turbines in order to keep its total licensed capacity at 3,100MW.

As PowerSeraya has won the EMA's tender to build a new 600MW hydrogen-ready CCGT by 2028, it will progressively mothball and then de-commission more oil-fired steam turbines which are hardly run nowadays.

Any RE import by PowerSeraya will not affect its total licensed capacity, that's a fact.

And do not forget a stock chart can be easily manipulated if the volume is not big enough.

A shortie can dump the share price to a level just to make the chart to send out a SELL signal, and the opposite is true.