Since I have got on board and accumulated a substantial position in IOIPG, I can only hold on and treat it as a long term investment as I believe the company has bright earnings outlook over the next 3-5 years.

But I will not promote this stock much until I see positive reactions from IOIPG management to address investors' concern.

After all, the stocks I recommend generally will not go up until months later when the earnings start to show up or the management starts to take proactive steps to engage with the investment public. YTL and YTL Power only surged up one year after I initially recommended it in May 2022. IGB only moved up gradually few months after I covered it. BPlant only surged up one year after my initial report when there was indeed a take-over offer for the company. Genting went up some 10% within a month of my initial report but went south after a couple of quarters of weak results, but has since recovered to RM4.80. Aeon did go up some 10% after my initial report but quickly went down due to weak quarterly results and refusal of the then CFO to even listen to my proposal. Now the share price is up back as foreign funds started seeing the potential in AEON, also after the CFO resigned.

While IOIPG is grossly under-valued whether based on assets or future earnings growth, the share price may continue to be depressed in near term due to the Shenton House proposal and lack of clarification and proactive actions from IOIPG management to address investors' concern. I initially thought the CEO's move was transparent enough and was good to IOIPG minority shareholders, now I really do not know what the CEO wants and what IOIPG management intends to do.

If they still want the Shenton House proposal to get approved by shareholders, they should be doing the right things of addressing investors' concerns, and not letting the share price crushing down like what happened in past 2-3 weeks.

The more the share price crushes down, the more disgruntled investors will become and the more likely they will blame the management and the CEO for this related party proposal that triggered the sell down of the stock, and eventually vote down the proposal in the EGM.

Had they been doing the right things and convening the right messages to the investment public, the share price will not see so much selling. The investor relation department of the company should take the blame.

@remus, the data on YTD foreign funds buying in IOIPG is extracted from the monthly fund flows reports from Maybank research. I just summarised the funds movement data in IOIPG from the past 7 month Maybank reports.

In Bursa announcements, I only see EPF buying up to last Friday 12th July. I suspect it has sold some IOIPG this week on 16th July, will need to wait for few more days before we see any Bursa announcement to confirm that.

EPF may also be frustrated if IOIPG management is not able to give them satisfactory answers to EPF's concerns and queries. Then I would expect EPF to vote against the Shenton House proposal.

Expect continued selling on IOIPG shares until the top management takes some proactive steps to address investors' concerns below:
1) the rationale of injecting Shenton House project into IOIPG from the CEO
2) how will IOIPG address its high gearing which will get even higher after Shenton House injection?
3) why is IOIPG management not taking swift actions to monetise its vase assets like selling some parcels of land in Kulai to data centre developers, or engaging investment bankers to study the possibility of injecting its shopping malls and office towers into a commercial REIT?

4) why is IOIPG management not updating on the progress of its prime asset IOI Central Boulevard in Singapore, whether it has indeed received the Temporary Occupancy Certificate on 5th July 2024? whether it has managed to secure any more tenant for IOICB on top of the secured tenants of Amazon and Morgan Stanley?

5) its associate company, IOI Corp just announced to be looking at the possibility of selling some of its plantation land to solar power farm developer or forming a JV to monetise its plantation land. Why is IOIPG management not doing any of that? It has some 3,900 acres of land in JB/Kulai, is it keeping it all for future property development which may take 30 years of even 50 years?

Until we see IOIPG management taking proactive steps to address investors' concern, I think the share price will continue under selling pressure and I expect the Shenton House proposal to be rejected by minority shareholders in an EGM in next 4 months.

So disappointing. It is like another AEON's early CFO and management which were not so agile in managing the company cashflows and balance sheet.

The share price of IOIPG is under selling pressure which I am not sure is from where. Some foreign funds may be selling IOIPG this week after the CEO proposed for IOIPG to take over the Shenton House project.

The last data that I have shows that local funds sold a total of RM6 million worth of IOIPG shares on 16th July, and foreign funds sold a total of RM7 million of IOIPG shares on 15th July.

Apparently funds are unhappy with the proposed related party transaction, and IOIPG top management team is not doing much to appease investors on the proposal, hence the heavy selling seen in past 2-3 weeks.

I am rather disappointed with things going on at IOIPG management, or rather my initiate coverage on this stock was premature. I should have waited for some positive actions from IOIPG top management to avoid heavy selling from funds, before I recommended a Buy on this stock. I apologise for the mistiming.

@remus, I get daily updates from Hong Leong research team on the movements of funds in top 10 counters by value. I think Hong Leong and other brokers like MIDF have access to Bursa data on foreign funds and local funds movements in each counter.

@Antifanaticracism, you are right that there is a serious problem in the UK water sector, and the biggest problem lies in the regulator, Ofwat.

Ofwat determined a super low return on capital back in 2019 for 2020-2025 regulatory period, resulting in all the 10 water companies in the UK suffering from poor cashflows and accounting losses. Wessex too has reported several quarters of losses lately due to provisions for index-linked bonds and higher inflation.

Now Ofwat again is making similar mistakes in coming out with a below-par draft determination for all the water companies for the next 5 years 2025-2030. Ofwat last determination has made the biggest water company there, Thames Water going into special administration, it is making other water companies plunging into similar hardship.

But the good thing is that all the water companies are pushing hard back to Ofwat on its draft determination. The reason is simple. Ofwat cannot ask the water companies to spend more to meet more stringent ESG requirements and at the same time does not allow sufficient opex and capex allowance. They will soon realise that no water company can survive with the low revenue line while complying with the stringent ESG requirements. Just look at Thames Water, its bond holders and equity holders will not be willing to pump in more equity to fund the massive capex requirements, and lenders will not be willing to lend any more money to Thames Water as its projected revenue line and cashflows will be poor (due to Ofwat's determined low return on capital and low opex allowance). The whole business model will fail and the whole water industry will fail to work, Ofwat will fail in its job as the regulator when the entire water sector fails to meet the environmental requirements, more water supply disruption, more flooding into cities and towns, lack of water infrastructure to support new investments and industrial development. Ofwat officials would then be forced to quit or be forced to step down, just like the Conservative Party.

Another good thing is that the new Labour Party government is pro-business and welcome foreign investments. They will not let the entire water industry to fail as it will drive away investments into the country.

From now to the final determination, I gather that the water companies are fighting hard to engage Ofwat to get improved terms before the final determination. I believe there will be light at the end of the tunnel.

The KL-Singapore HSR project will be highly positive to YTL group.

WHoever wins the HSR construction work contracts will need to procure lots of concrete and cement, and with MCement being the largest cement producer in Malaysia, YTL will definitely benefit.

The article says YTL is one of the 3 consortium shortlisted for the HSR job. I see YTL as one of the frontrunner as it has the expertise and financial muscle to take up and complete the massive construction work on time, based on its track record.

Based on RHB's notes above, YTL Power is on track to deliver the 100MW AI data centre with Nvidia in 2025-2026. Interesting to note is the new phase under construction, which is for a new DC of 40+40MW capacity for a hyperscaler.

That shows that YTL Power has secured some 180MW of AI data centre jobs so far, which is close to my earlier projection of 200MW AI data centre by 2026.

We should start seeing earnings contribution from AI data centre in FY2025 and more prominently in FY2026.

100MW AI-DC update. The first 20MW is at 70% completion and should be ready for server installation by year’s end. The remaining 80MW capacity is also still under construction and slated for a mid-2025 completion. YTLP is finalising the offtakers. While capex has yet to be disclosed and finalised, we estimate the capex for using GB200 chips for a 100MW AI-DC could be 30- 50% higher than our original estimate of USD3bn for H100 chips. YTLP is also confident of securing chip supplies on time by 1HCY25. As the server installations may take months to complete, we could expect to see the first 20MW AI-DC ramping up in CY25, with the entire 100MW AI-DC starting contribute meaningfully in CY26.

New phase under construction. There is another new DC phase under construction, hosting a 40+40MW capacity and adopting an air-cooling system. We believe this new capacity has been committed by a hyperscaler, with construction is likely to be completed by mid-2025. Vacant land is available for YTLP to construct solar assets – this is for the DCs to be co- powered with green energy in future. There are no requirements from the clients to supply green energy for the existing DCs, but we believe this could attract more DC investors to reduce their carbon footprints in the longer run.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/rhbinvest/2024-07-18-story-h-156868587-YTL_Power_Sneak_Peek_at_Green_DC_Keep_BUY

RHB posted an update on YTL Power after a site visit to YTLP's green data centre park in Kulai.

Mr. OTB, I will do a rough estimate again for YTL Power projected Q4 FY2024.

In my note on 23rd May 2024, I forecast that YTL Power would achieve total net profit of RM3,199 m for FY2024, implying that the Q4 net profit to be RM807 million. I will check this gain below.

As estimated above, I forecast PowerSeraya to register net profit of SGD190-200m in Q4, or RM670-700 million.

I expect steady net profit contribution of RM120 million from Jawa Power and Jordan Power every quarter, so that will add up to almost RM900m for YTL Power.

For Wessex, I forecast a turnaround or a breakeven so no drag to YTLP net profit.

For Yes, it should register smaller loss of less than RM50m in Q4, which may be offset against by new earnings contribution from the 1st phase data centre with SEA Ltd. Earlier in May I expected higher loss of RM75m from Yes and minimal contribution from data centre.

So, it looks like YTLP Q4 may look like closer to RM900 million than RM800 million.

But it can swing either way - it may go towards if Yes indeed register higher loss and Wessex not able to turn around, or it may swing toward RM1.0 billion if we have positive surprises from Wessex and Yes.

@sg999, we cannot simply use the USEP to predict how much PowerSeraya's earnings will drop from last year Q4. NO doubt in Apr-June 2023, the USEP was sky high and all gencos in Singapore enjoyed super high profits from selling long generation into the wholesale pool. I have earlier estimated the extra profit earned from such long generation into the pool to be around SGD30 million a quarter for PowerSeraya in Q3 and Q4 FY2023.

Now for Q4 FY2024, the USEP is higher than that in Q3 GY2024 but lower than Q4 FY2023. The extra profit from long generation into the pool will not be as high as SGD30m, but it will be something higher than Q3 FY2024.

I estimated last year that the PBT for PowerSeraya was about SGD270 million in Q4 FY2023, out of which some SGD43m was due to long generation extra profit. Striping out the extra profit, the base profit before tax for PowerSeraya should be around SGD230 million and net profit to be about SGD190 million a quarter.

PowerSeraya achieved about SGD185m net profit in Q3 FY2024, I am forecasting that the net profit for Q4 FY2024 to be about SGD190-200 million for PowerSeraya.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/special-feature/ioi-central-boulevard-towers-building-greener-future

Good article on IOI Central Boulevard by Edge Singapore.

Sustainability at the core

David Tibbott, managing director for asset management, says: “Our sustainability objectives are closely aligned with that of our tenants. This development showcases IOI Properties Singapore’s dedication to creating sustainable, top-tier offices that meet the evolving needs of today’s businesses, including major tenants like Amazon and Morgan Stanley.”

@cwc1981, YTL and YTL Power share price is down temporarily due to some foreign funds selling. These foreign funds tend to be hot money which comes in and out within 6-9 months typically.

Foreign funds started buying YTL and YTL Power in a big way in Dec 2023 up until early May 2024. After YTL Power announced a weak set of quarterly result for March 2024 in late May, these "hot money" found the excuse to take profit on YTL and YTL Power which both have given them 100% gain in 6 months. To these "hot money", a 100% gain in 6 months is good enough coz they bought in big quantities. They bought in total some RM950 million in YTL Power shares and RM850 million worth of YTL shares from Dec 23 to May 24, so a 100% gain will have given them good profit of RM400-500 million each from YTL and YTL Power.

It is no surprise for these "hot money" to take profit and exit the stocks, but the good thing is that most of the selling pressure from these hot money funds has been well adsorbed by local institutional funds as well as local retailers in past few weeks, hence the share price is only down like 10% from their peak prices.

The reason why local institutional funds are coming in to buy YTL and YTL Power is that they are finally convinced that the earnings outlook for both companies is so bright that they cannot simply ignore, as both stocks have become stocks with almost the largest market cap in Bursa, with YTL Power in top 10 list.

Local funds like EPF cannot ignore the fact that YTL and YTL Power have become the leader in respective areas of expertise, i.e. YTL Power is the pioneer in data centre and AI data centre in collaboration with Nvidia, one of the largest companies in the world, and is the owner of the 2nd largest power company in Singapore and owner of Wessex Waters, one of the 10 water companies in the UK; while YTL owns a majority stake in YTL Power and MCement, the largest cement player in Malaysia, and the owner of Niseko village, the largest land owner and ski resorts owner in Hokkaido Japan, and the three renowned Marriotte Hotels in Australia.

These local funds know that by buying YTL and YTL Power, they will have good and direct exposure to the booming AI and data centres in Malaysia, benefits of the strength in Singapore dollars, the turn around of Wessex and exposure to the UK utility and property sectors, the booming tourism sector in Australia and Japan.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/07/17/sea-ytl-digital-on-track-to-form-digital-bank

@redhotpepper, please see today's news above. YTLP's digital bank is on track for commercial operations by end of the year

Foreign funds started selling IJM yesterday in a big way after buying in past few weeks when local analysts also helped to come out with good reports on construction stocks like IJM and Gamuda. To me, these pure construction stocks are getting over-valued now with PER of over 20x, but local analysts are upgrading them to 25x prospective PER.

Stock valuation in the long run will eventually fall back to earnings and fundamentals. YTL is a lot cheaper at less than 15x PER with improving earnings prospects from YTL Power (Wessex turning around, PowerSeraya's continued strong earnings, AI data centre starts contributing next year etc.), MCement (strong earnings to sustain from mega construction work like Penang LRT, KL-Singapore HSR, data centres construction work etc.) and hotels business (from influx of foreign tourists to Malaysia and Singapore on visa-free travelling from China and India, strong surges in tourists to Japan due to weak yen etc.).

@raymondroy, SEA Ltd is a tenant at YTL Power's colocation data centre, not a partner.

But it is a partner to YTL Power's JV in the new digital bank in Malaysia. Contrary to recent news propaganda to discredit YTL-SEA partnership, YTL Digital Capital Sdn Bhd issued a press statement yesterday to confirm that its digital bank is on track to commence operations by end of 2024, in line with the plan approved by the Finance Ministry.

I think we cannot judge the financial health of SEA Ltd just by looking at the share price drop in recent months. Its share price was chased up to unreasonable valuation in the first place, and now it is down to more reasonable value.

In fact, SEA Ltd is much stronger now in financials compared to 2-3 years ago when its share price was peaking, as its digital bank division has turned EBITDA positive in 2023 and it has successfully fenced off competition in the e-commerce space in South East Asia.

After 3.00pm, some foreign funds start their operations selling down IOIPG below 2.20. May have chance to collect low at 2.11 today. Get ready your bullets.

Ya, this is not a stock as exciting as those related to AI or construction theme which are hot lately, but I believe and prefer IOIPG will rise in a slow and steady manner to reflect its improving earnings outlook in next 2-3 years.

Foreign funds have accumulated a total of RM299.66 million worth of IOIPG shares YTD to 30 June 2024. They added the most in the month of May 2024 with a net purchase of RM99.7 million. Average purchase price in May should be around RM2.20-2.30 as IOIPG share price traded between RM2.10 and RM2.50.

Foreign funds bought in a total of RM178 million worth of IOIPG shares in Jan-Mar 2024. Average purchase price should be around RM2.10 as IOIPG share price traded between RM1.85 and RM2.35 in Q1.

All in, I see that the average entry cost of foreign funds in IOIPG is around RM2.20.

Statistics shows that some small quantity of foreign funds exited IOIPG in early July with total sale of RM7 million so far. The selling was likely to have been prompted by the Shenton House proposal announced in early July. As I have written about this proposal which I see is small positive bias in the long run to IOIPG, I do not see further selling of foreign funds in near future.

I continue queuing at RM2.11-2.12 to accumulate more, hope I will be able to get it soon when the remaining short term funds / traders sell off in protest of the SHenton House proposal.

Press it down lower better, so that we can accumulate more below 2.00.

Once it approaches RM2.00, the downside is limited. At most it will retest year low of RM1.80 like Eagle77 is wishing.

Then you go invest in gold, please get lost from here

As mentioned before, the sell down of YTL shares in past 2 days was triggered by the draft determination by Ofwat for Wessex Waters' next 5 year business plan, which in turn caused a selldown in YTL Power shares.

As it is just another draft determination of Ofwat, it does not have any immediate impact on Wessex's operations. I am confident that Wessex management will work hard to engage Ofwat in the next few weeks to deliberate on the merits of its submitted business plan and justify for a higher rate of return on capital. I think the final determination in Dec 2024 will typically improve from the drafts.

Hence, I find the selldown in YTL Power and YTL shares in these 2 days is unfounded and unnecessary. I see the current weakness in YTL share price as a good opportunity to accumulate more for long term investment holds.

Most of the investors are short term in nature, even many foreign funds are just hot money coming in and out within 6 months. No doubt YTL announced a weak set of results for Q3 FY2024, it was mainly due to lower earnings contribution from YTL Power / PowerSeraya.

As PowerSeraya is rebounding well from the temporary slump in Jan-Feb 2024, YTL Power will announce a stronger set of earnings in the upcoming Q4 FY2024, which will benefit YTL.

YTL will continue to benefit from strong earnings of MCement in coming quarters due to elevated cement selling price and impending HSR revival prospects.

Furthermore, the influx of foreign tourists into Malaysia due to visa-free travelling from China and India will benefit YTL's hotels and shopping malls in Malaysia and Singapore.

YTL share price dropped to a low of RM3.30 after Q3 result announcement in end May, but has since quickly rebounded to above RM3.70 last week. That shows it has good support from longer term investment funds and investors when short term traders and funds took profit. We cannot judge a stock performance merely from few weeks of stock price movements. As long as fundamentals remain attractive, this stock is a long term Buy.

The earnings of YTL for Q4 FY2024 should be good, but I am not sure if it will declare a final dividend of 9.5 sen as indicated by Tan Sri Francis last year. I hope it will.

Even if it declares a lower dividend than 9.5 sen, I won't bother much and will hold onto YTL shares as I know the company preserving cash is for future projects. A lower dividend may mean a big project coming its way to YTL soon.

You can see EPF has been accumulating IOIPG in recent weeks, the most recent was the acquisition of 3 million shares on 9th July 2024.

Don't spread unfounded news. There isn't any operator in this counter, it is a fundamental stock with good upside potentials to long term investors, not for short term punters.

Please move aside to other penny stocks if you like to do short term trading.

Correct Mr. OTB.

The selldown last Friday was due to the draft determination from Ofwat for Wessex next tariff reset. It is just another draft determination, I am sure Wessex management will work hard in the next 2 months or so to liaise with Ofwat for an improved plan and higher rates of return on capital.

WACC has improved from 3.1% in the 1st draft determination last Nov to 3.72% in the second draft determination in early July 2024. I hope it will improve further to 4.3% in the final determination in Dec 2024. That will do the job for Wessex to meet my projected earnings in 2025-2030.

Hold on and be patient.

Today selling is a knee jerk reaction from some foreign funds to the draft determination by Ofwat for Wessex Waters. As said, this is just a draft determination, not the final.

History shows that Ofwat usually improves on water companies' requests in the final determination, as shown by the improvement in allowed rate of return from 3.1% in 1st draft determination in Nov 2023 to 3.72% in the 2nd draft determination.

There is still some months away from the final determination in Dec 2024, I hope Wessex Waters and other water companies in the UK will work on their submitted plans and liaise with Ofwat officials to achieve a more amicable outcome in the final determination so that it will allow a more sustainable business model for all the water companies in the UK, otherwise they may fall down one by one after Thames Water, and Ofwat might as well nationalise all the 10 water companies in the UK!

@cwc1982, correct, who wants to forever run a loss making business.

Ofwat will learn the lesson when it puts another water company into bankruptcy after Thames Water. I suspect the draft determination was somewhat affected by some political factors as UK just had its general election weeks ago, and the draft determination was delayed by one month because of the election.

From now till the final determination in Dec 2024, there is time for water companies and their financers to work on Ofwat to ask for higher water tariffs. The current allowed rate of returns cannot sustain the ongoing business of most of the water companies in the UK. For now, it is just a temporary setback.

YTL is being dragged down by YTL Power which is under selling pressure after Ofwat, the water sector regulator in the UK yesterday announced a draft determination which will give lower rate of returns to the water companies for the next 5 regulatory years from 2026-2030.

The rate of returns was set at 3.72% in this second draft determination, a rise from the earlier 3.1% in the first draft determination in November 2023. Hopefully they will further raise it to above 4.0% in the final determination in December 2024.

Constructive comments are welcome.

One comment I received privately was the projected earnings from IOI Central Boulevard. I project annual earnings of RM700 m from IOICB from FY2026, based on projected gross rental income of SGD206 million a year, which in turn was calculated from an assumed rental rate of SGD14.00 psf x 1.29 million sf x 95% x 12 months. That assumed only 95% of total 1.29 million sf of NLA is to be leased out, and hence leaves a 5% room for upside later. Furthermore, the average rental rate may have room for further upside for inflation adjustments in later years as well as for scarcity premium as there is no more major re-development site in Singapore CBD after Shenton House is won by CEO Mr. Lee.

The overhead cost for maintaining IOICB should be very low at less than 5% of gross rental income for such a big office tower.

The main cost will be electricity bill. Assuming 10% of total NLA is common area where IOICB needs to provide air-conditioning and lighting for, electricity bills may come out to 1.29 million sf x 10% x (7.5 hp /1000 sf) x 0.745 kW/hp x 16h x 365 days x SGD300/MWh = SGD1.26 million per year, rounded up to SGD1.5 million for lighting. (assumptions: 10% of NLA is common area, 7.5 hp of air-conditioning is required for every 1,000 sf of space, average electricity price of SGD300/MWh).

Other maintenance costs will be for maintenance of lifts & elevators, main facets, external paintings, quick rents and licensing fees payables to local authorities, bomba checks etc. These may not add up to more than SGD10 million a year, I estimate.

Hence I see that my assumed net earnings of SGD200 million a year from IOICB should be achievable.

This is the second draft determination by Ofwat, draft determination usually is harsh in comments and numbers. I hope the Wessex team will liaise with Ofwat officials in their feedback by 28th August 2024 and try to improve the rate of returns in the final determination on 19th December 2024.

For info, the first draft determination by Ofwat set the rate of returns at just 3.1% then the second determination yesterday raised it to 3.72%. I hope this will improve to above 4.0% in the final determination.

@ltlim74, Thames Waters' problems have been well flagged months before. The company has not been well run operationally, coupled with the low rate of returns allowed by Ofwat for the past five regulatory years from 2020-2025 and high interest rates & high operating costs after COVID-19, Thames Water simply cannot cope with the rising costs and low revenue, hence huge losses are registered in past 2-3 years leading to the debt problems.

On the other hand, Wessex is in a much better position as operationally Wessex has been performing very well and has actually been registering operating profits in past few years except that it did suffer the same problems like other water companies in the UK, i.e. higher interest rates & higher inflation that leads to high provisions for index-linked bonds.

Ofwat too has played a key role in making all water companies in the UK not performing to the mark as it determined an ultra low rate of return of just 3.1% for the water companies in the 5 regulatory years from 2020 to 2025, resulting in lower revenue and losses in many water companies in the UK.

Now it seems like Ofwat has not learnt the lesson and has just made a draft determination for something much less than what water companies have submitted for the next 5 regulatory years from 2026-2030.

Foreign funds are buying MCement. Analysts are getting more upbeat with Wessex Waters turning around soon and YTL Power prospects. Visa-free tourists pouring into Malaysia will help to spur ahead YTL's hotel and shopping mall businesses in Malaysia and Singapore.

All are positive factors that push up YTL share.

Not to mention is the impending revival of KL_Singapore HSR.

Another area the IOIPG management should pay some attention to is its vast Johor landbank, to review its existing development plans and to see if there is any good opportunity to monetise some parcels of land there to reduce borrowings.

We do not like to see another cheap sale of land such as the 400+ acres sale to Eco World last November at just RM12 psf. It was obviously a lapse / lack of attention in the management team.

China property market has been slow, so I think IOIPG is not putting much focus on the China market with no new launches.

It is more important for them to focus on the Singapore market with IOICB completing soon, and Marina View Residences to be launched by year end. Furthermore, CEO Lee needs to get this Shenton House deal settled in an acceptable way so the group can focus on getting on expanding the business in Singapore.

Furthermore, another focus is to execute the planned expansion at IOI City Mall phase 3 successfully to continuously attract crowds to its shopping mall and adjacent hotels.

@Agji, yes the placement of MCement shares by YTL has been completed at a price close to RM5.00. YTL should be able to recognise a disposal gain in the upcoming Q4 FY2024.

@Sangranghaeyo, I cannot say I am expert in UK water industry, but I have put in substantial time and efforts to study the regulatory systems, the revenue reset model and past Wessex financials to enable me to grasp the key concept and main moving parts of the business.

I read through several draft determination and final determination papers published by Ofwat, and draft submission by Wessex to Ofwat and annual reports of Wessex. I even got hold of a copy of the excel spreadsheet used by Ofwat to do the draft determination for the next 5 years reset, somehow my UK friend said it was all available online.

@Bernard85, the headline of that article is misleading. Higher capex for next 5 regulatory years is good for Wessex as it will accelerate the expansion of its Regulatory Capital Value (RCV) which is used to calculate the water tariffs and revenue.

That shows that a lot of analysts and reporters are not familiar yet with the regulatory environment of the water sector in the UK and how Wessex derives its revenue and makes money.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/dragon328/2024-07-10-story-h-157080867-IOIPG_A_Property_Giant_Rising_to_be_a_Potential_5_Bagger

For leisure read

@bullrun2025, I have not been able to add at RM2.11-2.12 so I just bought direct at RM2.15 just now.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/dragon328/2024-07-10-story-h-157080867-IOIPG_A_Property_Giant_Rising_to_be_a_Potential_5_Bagger

IOIPG will have major re-rating soon.

The article is a bit long, take time to go though to appreciate the company's various assets and projects. As the company has many assets and several new developments, it takes more time to research and elaborate on each of them in this first coverage.

If you do not have the patience to read through the article, then this stock is probably not for you as you will likely not have the patience to hold on until the stock gets its re-rating.

Another positive development is that YTL REIT has recognized another round of revaluation gain of some RM130+ million for its hospitality assets. This will raise earnings at YTL REIT and in turn at YTL Corp level.

Yes MCement earnings will explode up further and will contribute increasing earnings to YTL Corp in coming quarters.

RHB Research issued an update report on YTL Power this morning after a site visit to Wessex Waters, UK. It maintains a BUY call with a target price of RM6.68.

The RHB team reaffirms the operational excellence of Wessex and confirms the substantially higher capex plan of GBP3.5 billion for the next 5-year regulatory period, which may be approved by Ofwat before end of the year.

The report also touched on the Brabazon property development project in Bristol, UK. It says Brabazon is delivering the first phase of 302 residential units, half of which are completed and occupied. Assuming an average selling price of GBP275k per unit, I estimate the GDV for the first phase to be around GBP80 million. Brabazon is delivering the next phase of 339 new homes, which will fetch a GDV of GBP100 million. These 2 phases in 2024 make up about 10% of total expected GDV of GBP1.8 billion and 6,500 homes over next 10 years for the Brabazon project. I see this Brabazon project is on track to deliver property development profits of RM225 million a year to YTL Power over the next 10 years as calculated in my earlier article in May 2024.

RHB report finally mentioned about a near term catalyst being the conclusion of an offtaker for 20MW of AI data centre at YTL Power Kulai DC park. Again this reaffirms my believe that YTL Power is on track to achieving a total of 200MW AI data centre work by 2026.

Extracts from TA research report today:

"IOIPG (TP: RM3.10. ★★★★) stands out as one of our top buy picks due to its strategic position in the thriving Johor market. It owns an extensive undeveloped landbank of 3,868 acres or 74% of the total undeveloped landbank (GDV: RM7.9bn or 12% of total GDV) and an additional 1,500 acres of non-core lands in Johor. Additionally, IOIPG's property investment division is expected to drive future revenue growth, with a projected 32% increase in FY25 and 19% in FY26, supported by the strong performance of its existing assets such as IOI City Mall Phase 1 & Phase 2 and the upcoming completion of Central Boulevard Towers in Singapore. The division's contribution to revenue is anticipated to rise significantly from 19% in FY23 to 28% by FY26. Furthermore, the potential establishment of a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) could unlock significant value from IOIPG's RM18bn investment properties, enhancing the company's financial flexibility and balance sheet. Our valuation is based on P/Bk multiple of 0.7x against its CY25 BPS, slightly below the stock’s peak valuation of 0.71x since its listing in 2013 and a 3% ESG premium incorporated into our TP."

I am not sure about the 1,500 acres of non-core land in Johor, which I cannot find anywhere mentioned in 2023 Annual Report. Is this 1,500 acres of land part of the 3,868 acres (stated in 2023 Annual Report) of undeveloped land in Johor? Does anyone know?

Just a temporary consolidation after 7 days of gains.

Needs a catalyst to break up 3.88, which may come in August