Based on homeritz recent quarter results, average USDMYR is 4.21 for Q4. This would boast well for all exporters...

Good riddance of weak holders. Then only the price stabilises and reflects its fundamentals in the long run.

Target price based on various valuation methods ranging from 3.00 to 3.46 (very conservative estimate and assuming no growth).

how can fair value is 1.83...and they never explain their basis

A strong buy if u have a long term view. Moving forward, their hydropower project in Laos will be their key growth driver. As at 3Q FY16, completion stage is only 11.5% but we have already seen its contribution to MFCB earnings in the last 2 quarters.

Insas NTA = 2.13. Very conservative valuation of its net net working capital = 1.44 (all investments are valued at its book value). Can u imagine how much Insas worth is if their investments in the public listed co are being realised. As stated in their 2015 AR, their gain/share of their investments in Inari is 0.89 based on their market cap of 2.8 billion. Inari;s market cap has risen to 3.4 billion!

Anyone has the latest information of Insas holdings/stake in Inari, Ho Hup, SYF and Omesti? Thanks for sharing

think long term. FLB implied share price is ranging from 2.28 to 2.75

It's merely the disparity arising from accounting treatments, TA and TAGB are required to recognise the losses from their foreign currency denominated loans whereas nothing is required to be done on the assets.

And even at this price, TA is trading at P/BV of 0.39 and that's not even taking into account of their assets realisable value (huge capital gain).

TA owns substantial amount of assets overseas and with the weakening of RM (though they have debts in USD) are actually better for TA and TAGB and these appreciations in value are not reflected in the books.

Conservative valuations of MFCB:
1) Based on annualised EPS = 39.79 sen (Q4 forecast EPS to be 9.95 sen) and average PER of 7.55, TP = 3.00
2) Assuming average FCF of 70 mil (lower than latest FY 2015: 87 mil) growing at inflation rate of 2% (very conservative) with WACC of 9.8%, FCF per share = 3.65
3) SOP valuations by Public Bank = 3.16

I think we can safely conclude that the intrinsic value of MFCB is at least RM3.

What does it say? Can translate to english

Good performance!

Kenanga: Yesterday, FLBHD’s share price rose 4 sen (+2.3%) to finish at a 5-month high of RM1.76. Consequently, the share price appears to have broken out of its sideways trend between RM1.42-RM1.70. At the same time, the 20-day SMA has just completed a “Golden Crossover” with the 50-day SMA to signal the start of a new uptrend. Expect the share price to be biased to the upside from here, with overhead resistances RM1.84 (R1) and RM1.95 (R2). Investors looking to buy into the stock may do so now, or on any weakness towards the RM1.70 (S1) resistance-turned-support. Failing which, further support is located just below at RM1.60 (S2).

better be careful before enter. like i said, there will be reputation risk with long term repercussion, potential claim from customers due to non delivery of contracts, loss of production and revenue as such closures can last potentially 2 months,

Good picks. Agreed with some and not so with some. What's your target price for these stocks and how much is your MOS?

This license revocation issue takes time. Need to factor in the reputation risk. Also potential claims from customers for failure of delivery.

A decisive breakout above RM1.73 could take the next leg up towards RM1.84 (200-d SMA) before reaching our LT objective at RM1.96 (50% FR) levels.

Insas only trading at 35% of its book value.

MFCB will benefits from the continue strengthening of US dollar too as the earnings from the Hydropower project is denominated in USD.

The existing PPA of the Tawau plant will expire in December 2017. Discussions for an extension of the PPA are currently underway with Sabah Electricity Sdn Bhd (“SESB”) and an announcement will be made once the PPA extension has been signed.

Expecting a strong quarter result!

Potential privatization in the cards?? Just wondering since GE is most likely to be call this year. Im sure BN would not want to lose Perak to the opposition.

MFCB future growth will be driven by its hydropower project.

Pls refer to their recent quarter report for updates of the power plants.

Liihen should achieve 40 sen full year. With such good profit growth, good dividend yield, strong cash flows generation, high return on equity, Liihen is due a rerating on its multiples. Let's take a P/E multiple of 10, this stock should be valued at 4.

There will be many challenges, obstacles...before DT can put in place his protectionist policy, even if he manages to drive ahead...it will take few years before it gets implemented.

My pick:

FLBHD
POHUAT
TGUAN
UMCCA
MFCB

All equal weightage.

Thanks.

seriously sostupid needs to brush up his england....i wonder if he is using google translate

TA's NTA around 1.80. Most of you should realised around 60-70% of profit and assets derived from its hospitality segment. Just imagine if TA were to sell its broking arm, TA will no longer categorised under the finance category but instead under the hotel. Look at Shangri-La's valuation, look at its P/BV, TA is primed for major re-rating soon.

Listen to sifu raider loh!! OSK is worth at least RM3. CIMB will pay more than RM10 for RHB shares...just do a simple calculation then u will know OSK's worth loh!!

2.8%!!

No wonder never see Raider at investlah anymore. You are starting a new thread here!!!

When is the cash payout??

Not many people realised that TA's earnings are mainly contributed by its hotel operations (60%). TA is still categorised as a finance stock as historically they started out as a broking firm. Just imagine if TA re-categorised under Hotel, do u think there will be a re-rating soon?

Right now, TA is valued as if its a pure broking firm (a sunset industry). Just take a look at Shangri-la's valuation, in terms of PE and P/BV.

There are some decent net net stocks out there. But most of the time they have a lazy balance sheet. Stocks like Oriental and Keck Seng springs to mind. Often these stocks are shuned by the market due to lack of value creation. They need catalyst like corporate exercise to unlock the value but then again not all are favourable to the minority shareholders recent case of Perakcorp as an example.

Kcchongnz why don't u have a look at Thong Guan. Thong Guan is market leader in industrial packaging in Asia pacific. Their growth outlook looks promising..strengthening of USD and expanding production capacity will drive earnings. It's profit margin are much better than Scientex. I believe thong guan will able to yield explosive returns in the future.

Thanks kcchong for ur valuable insights. After much thought, I decided against to invest in both Padini and Johotin and opted to invest in Thong Guan instead. I like Padini. I like how they managed to improve on cash conversion cycle and inventory management. It's FCF is impressive and growing hence evident by it's increasing dividend payout. However I'm slightly wary of its future performance but having said that I'm convinced Padini will able to ride out of any challenges faced as they have a very strong management team and it's business strategies are constantly changing to adapt to the market demands. I invested in Padini before and will look to add when the price is right. As for Johotin I had already invested last year at much higher price and not looking to add further.

Hi kcchongnz,

What are your views/thoughts on these stocks:
1) Padini
2) Weida
3) AeonCr
4) Johotin
5) TongHerr

Do you see any value in them? And what will be your required margin of safety if one to invests in?
Thanks.

Posted by kcchongnz > Dec 2, 2013 07:08 PM | Report Abuse

Fabien, you have to bear in mind that DCFA, or rather all valuation methods are very artistic. It all depends on your assumptions.

For PIE, let me take its average past 4 years free cash flow of 26.5m as a base, and assume it is going go grow by 5% a year for the next 10 years and 3% subsequently, and a discount rate of 10% (PIE has a healthy balance sheet with no debts and steady earnings and cash flows), the present value of its FCF is 451m. Adding back its 98.4m of excess cash, it is worth 550m, or RM8.58 per share.

Thanks kcchong!! Appreciate ur input.

From kcchongnz:

For PIE, let me take its average past 4 years free cash flow of 26.5m as a base, and assume it is going go grow by 5% a year for the next 10 years and 3% subsequently, and a discount rate of 10% (PIE has a healthy balance sheet with no debts and steady earnings and cash flows), the present value of its FCF is 451m. Adding back its 98.4m of excess cash, it is worth 550m, or RM8.58 per share.

Hikcchong...can u assist to do similar analysis/valuation on PIE? Thanks!!

Just sit back and think for a moment....Tony Tiah has been patiently accumulating TA for months..rumours has it...there's offer on the table but tony deems the offer is unattractive / undervalued...so what do u think he is doing now? consolidating his position? let's ponder....

PS: my average cost is 0.53. sometimes u want to win big...u need to have a lot of PATIENCE

Something brewing...watch this space

The Board of Directors of TA Enterprise Berhad (“TAE”) wishes to announce that TA Securities Holdings Berhad (“TASH”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company has acquired 1,500,000 ordinary shares of RM1.00 each representing 30% equity interest in TA Investment Management Berhad (“TAIM”) for a total consideration of RM2,795,000.00 on 22 November 2013 (“Acquisition”).

TAIM was incorporated on 17 April 1995 as a public limited company in Malaysia (Company No. 340588-T) pursuant to the Companies Act, 1965. The authorized share capital of TAIM is RM10,000,000.00 divided into 5,000,000 ordinary shares of RM1.00 each and 5,000,000 preference shares of RM1.00 each. The issued and paid-up capital is RM6,001,000.00 divided into 5,000,000 ordinary shares of RM1.00 each and 1,001,000 preference shares of RM1.00 each. Its principal activity is licensed fund manager managing unit trust and private funds. Currently, TASH is holding 70% equity interest in TAIM. Pursuant to the Acquisition, TAIM shall be a wholly-owned subsidiary of TASH and TAE shall be the ultimate holding company of TAIM.
None of the Directors, substantial shareholders and/or persons connected with them has any direct or indirect interest in the aforesaid acquisition.
This announcement is dated 22 November 2013.

The Board of Directors of TA Enterprise Berhad (“the Board”) wishes to announce that the Company has acquired 2,145,000 ordinary shares of RM1.00 each representing 30% of the equity interest in TA Futures Sdn Bhd (“TAF”) for a total consideration of RM4,905,000.00 on 22 November 2013 (“Acquisition”).

TAF was incorporated on 14 April 1995 as a private limited company in Malaysia (Company No. 340271-W) pursuant to the Companies Act, 1965. The authorized and issued share capital of TAF is RM10,000,000.00 divided into 7,145,000 ordinary shares of RM1.00 each and 2,855,000 Cumulative Redeemable Preference Shares of RM1.00 each. Its principal activity is licensed futures and options broking. Currently, the Company is holding 70% equity interest in TAF. Pursuant to the Acquisition, TAF shall be a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company.
None of the Directors, substantial shareholders and/or persons connected with them has any direct or indirect interest in the aforesaid acquisition.
This announcement is dated 22 November 2013.

Calvin: When is the 6 acres of ShahAlam's factory starts its production?

Pehaps good quarter coming?

Calvin: When will the new plant be ready?