Cut loss if u must, buy if u must. Chinaman shaking out weak holders and those who panic. I sold 20%. Still holding 80%. If up I will recover back. If down I can buy back at cheaper cost. Tactical management.

Posted by Novice168 > Feb 27, 2018 06:00 PM | Report Abuse

why is HY share price so depressed?

Maybe collection by Chinaman to avoid insider trading suspicions. Upon release of astounding results (as per Peter Chu) than maybe limit up like Muda and sell to make 30% profit easy.

Posted by Lee Yih Yeong > Feb 26, 2018 05:28 PM | Report Abuse

wow...result when out

Posted by thomashan > Feb 26, 2018 05:28 PM | Report Abuse

28 feb

Yes I think so. Good opportunity to thank the outgoing CEO and introduce the new guy.

Posted by Alex™ > Feb 26, 2018 04:33 PM | Report Abuse

this hengyuan really resilient

HY with fundamentals. In the 90's when I was a naive young man I bought a lot of rubbish second board counters...Their operators will pump and dump and retailers are left holding the can. It won't happen to HY I believe as ultimately its fundamentals and value will prevail.

Posted by ooihk899 > Feb 26, 2018 03:28 PM | Report Abuse

haha, block at 15.3@900

Could be fake block...by operator

Hit my buy q at 15.18 unexpected...Huat Arr...

Looks like T4..more than 6 million shares traded in single day previously

Posted by Hanwen Yeh > Feb 26, 2018 11:05 AM | Report Abuse

Around 10.45 i got a nasty anonymous call asking me to STOP commenting "minutes-by-minutes", why-lah? "Taiko dont like this dancing to others tunes" otherwise "they" will send the price down in the opposite direction.......as a warning they will do the 1lot.... 2lots... 3lots....time-wasting thing.......

What-lah,so kiasi one..want to goreng also so kiasi one meh......

There is this 500,000 volume held back, or NOT out by 11.00....

Comment:

Serious or joking?

500000 shares or lots??? If shares than is small fry la or prankster...cannot be operator. Operator don't call up and warn.

Posted by hollandking > Feb 25, 2018 12:21 PM | Report Abuse

why is cyclical?
I'm no expert but let's look at how the oil price been moving these past few years. Think is the price of the crude where they bought to refine into oil products. Let's say, suppose if you bought lots of oil or contracts at very low prices, then price keep going up, so your cost of refining into these products going to be very low. But let's say if it is the reverse side, you bought crude at a price and keep it in your inventory, but if price of crude keep falling, what would happen? You will incurred massive losses. Think this is what happened to shell few years back. Now let's say if the oil price increase had peak, what would happened when your inventory of cheap crude had finished up?
So the way they managed their crude inventory would determined whether they have big gains or losses.

I POSTED THE FOLLOWING PREVIOUSLY:

Feb 21, 2018 09:43 AM | Report Abuse

The cyclical nature of commodities do have an impact on the inventory value that refineries hold for stock management when prices fluctuate. Oil went through an extraordinary boom and bust cycle from US$120 to about US$25 thus resulting in the heavy losses suffered by Shell Refining before HY took-over.

If current inventory value for HY is about RM 1 billion with oil at US$65 than at the peak the inventory value under Shell Refining would be roughly US$2 billion. The impairment loss when oil was below US$30 would be about US$1.5 billion and likely wiping out shareholders funds and reserves.

The wrecked balance sheet is the most likely reason prompting (apart from the losses they suffered from their global upstream operations) Shell to exit at US$66 million for their 51% shareholdings

QUESTION:

Will the same boom and bust scenario happen? Current price about US$60 but OPEC has managed to curb supply output. Will it drop below US$30? Unlikely, Even if it does it will be for a short while before rebounding in my opinion. Goldman Sachs recently opined that oil is heading for US$80.

MY TAKE:

HY is involved in consumer products with steady demand and predictable margins. Risk of value impairment to inventory does not make it a cyclical stock. This risk can be managed and hedged. The extraordinary boom and bust to US$120 and below Us$30 is unlikely to happen any time soon.

Satan, As far as I understand impairment relates to financial and fixed assets and should be reflected following FRS requirements. Not sure how the Euro4 upgrade works in this regard. Thanks anyway.

Posted by probability > Feb 24, 2018 03:44 PM | Report Abuse

What if earnings decimated by half, its PE will be 10. If its earnings dropped 75%, its PE will be 4x today's PE.

Say earnings is half, than PE is 10 according to 3iii. In that case price will still maintained at Rm 15. No?

Posted by satan118 > Feb 23, 2018 11:55 PM | Report Abuse

@zhugeliang, fyi, i did really read b4 about impairment write back >450M. Mayb in previous annual report(after shell cancell the euro4 upgrade and write off). Bcoz the amount upgrade RM580M is too little compare to others like petron. It has impact of >RM1.50 per share. Pls share of there is. Tq.

My take:

The impairment value is separate from reinvestment allowance. The impairment value is mentioned in 2015 and 2016 reports in relation to the value of the refinery. I think impairment arose in earlier years. It seems the refinery is valued using value in use method which is likely to be based on crack spreads. This is simply an accounting requirement in accord with FRS. Please note the land, buildings and other improvements, extending to about 350 acres and is freehold, has not been valued for more than 25 years.

All quiet on the Western front (naysayers)..D-Day landing commenced

Ok Thanks bro Pang & Kesley

Posted by Pangsh62 > Feb 23, 2018 11:43 AM

HY-CA settlement price;
The Settlement Price has been determined at RM 13.9600 being the arithmetic mean of the closing price of HENGYUAN Shares on Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad for the five (5) scheduled market days prior to and including the market day before the Expiry Date.

Cash Settlement Amount
= {(Settlement Price – Exercise Price) / Exercise Ratio } x Number of HENGYUAN-CA exercised – 0.30%*

= {(RM 13.9600 - RM 6.0000) / 8.0000 } x Number of HENGYUAN-CA exercised – 0.30%*

= RM 0.9950 x Number of HENGYUAN-CA exercised – 0.30%*
*The Exercise Expenses are subject to 6% GST.

Sifus,

As a matter of interest can anyone advised -

if a lot of warrants being converted due to mother price higher than exercise price, does that mean IB has to buy mother from market to transfer to those who convert their warrants ???

Cheers to Future Eyes

Zheu Ge Liang I agree Future Eyes work and write up was well researched. Not many would have done as such for the benefit of others. Straight to the point.

In contrast the Moody's report is couched in language trying to address all angles resulting in a convoluted article. I think the writer was not in the right mood or lost his thoughts.

Very soon 16.88...

i q buy at 14.7. someone please sell to me

Batteries for Electric cars is still in its infancy.

What about growing demand for air travel due to greater business activities and tourism growth? And more shipping due to economic growth and leisure cruises? More cargo being transported through container lorries....??

Hibiscus and HY..cannot be further apart. In traders own words, apple and orange

Selling may come in around 4 pm but I believe will be well absorbed and close green. Is KYY still selling????

The cyclical nature of commodities do have an impact on the inventory value that refineries hold for stock management when prices fluctuate. Oil went through an extraordinary boom and bust cycle from US$120 to about US$25 thus resulting in the heavy losses suffered by Shell Refining before HY took-over .

If current inventory value for HY is about RM 1 billion with oil at US$65 than at the peak the inventory value under Shell Refining would be roughly US$2 billion. The impairment loss when oil was below US$30 would be about US$1.5 billion and likely wiping out shareholders funds and reserves.

The wrecked balance sheet is the most likely reason prompting (apart from the losses they suffered from their global upstream operations) Shell to exit at US$66 million for their 51% shareholdings

HY is selling refined oil products for consumption and cannot therefore be lumped with commodities which are cyclical. Similar to refining a commodity such as crude palm oil into consumer products such as cooking oil and soap.

The refineries make a margin which is the spread.

Yesterday's drop could be due to KYY selling?

Market cap is presently about RM4.5 billion which is very much below present cost to build a refinery.

If HY were to revalue its fixed assets what would be its value? I believe it is trading below its asset value/intrinsic value

Short term traders bought at lower price taking profit. And some stale bulls getting out.

I asked 3iii previously what is the intrinsic price for HY??? but no reply. Is Rm10 billion a fair figure the land cost, infra, buildings, tanks, jetty, etc. and also allowing for time for approval and interest cost???

Bought @13.04 before CNY holidays. Bought again today @15.38. My gut says it will double soon.

Huat Arr.

3iii, what is the intrinsic value for HY if I may ask?

12 I think unlikely in immediate future liao. Uptrend now. Daily lows are higher most days recently.

I just bought at 13.08...scooting off to airport for CNY hols liao. Cheers and good luck. No worries. HY will bring big ang pow.

Just ignore the vile, uncouth remarks. Let them run off like water off a duck. No matter how foul the mouth the price movements will not listen. Buy if u must sell if u must.

Buying more today. Gut feel it will move upwards strongly soon. Naysayers and believers to each his own. Good luck and Happy CNY.

Fully agree, Rex

Posted by 3iii > Feb 11, 2018 05:53 PM | Report Abuse

Two principal Investment Objectives:

1. to minimise the risk of permanent capital loss; and
2. to achieve superior risk adjusted investment returns over the medium to long-term.


Investment Philosophy is simple to state.

We aim to find outstanding companies at attractive prices.

We consider outstanding companies to be those that have sustainable competitive advantages which translate into returns on capital materially in excess of their cost of capital for a sustained period of time.

While we are extremely focused on fundamental business value, we are not typical value investors. Securities that appear undervalued on the basis of a low price to earnings multiple or a price to book multiple will often prove to be poor investments if the underlying business is fundamentally weak and exhibits poor returns on capital.

We will buy companies that have both low and higher price to earnings and price to book multiples provided that the business is outstanding and the shares are trading at an appropriate discount to our assessment of intrinsic value.

3 iii, as per your posting....what is the intrinsic value of HY???

This stock is for long term ,no cut loss but can cut win...

Leslie, I agree but sometimes when a stock drops from Rm19 to RM11 can be scary. Generally I will cut loss if below my cost by 10% if there are no good explanations and particularly if the movements are volatile. HY recent movements seems to be a second board stock of the old days before the 97 financial crisis. Burnt very badly then. Technically bankrupt...loss a decade to recover.

Raider I sold all from RM15 to Rm18. Bought back half at Rm14.50. Cut loss at Rm12. And then bought back all and double in at RM13 over last week. Fundamentally sound stock but its volatile gyrations suggest some parties are pushing this counter up and down. I may be wrong but it should head north perhaps double soon.

I am here to seek general knowledge, good advice supported by facts and figures. We cannot stop silly, cheeky,nonsensical or uncouth remarks. The best is just to ignore. No need to rebut.

Every decision made should preferably be counter check with other independent sources as ultimately you have to suffer the pain or enjoy the fruit and euphoria on your own and perhaps with your love ones, not those in this forum.

Zhu Ge Liang, well said.Simply saying sell run etc will not be helpful to those who wish to protect and grow their investments. The worst are those who use profane language. What purpose does it serve? Nothing good.

The facts and figures suggests a much much higher value for HY. Current gyrations suggest some parties are involved. Ultimately, its value will surface. Noises in this forum should generally be dismissed as they are just loud and brash. Seek independent advice if you must.

Agree with Mr. Tai. Collecting...

Yay Thomas.

in response to 3iii

I am in BitC as a miner. Invested USD80k. My cost over 3 years is USD 1k per BitC. HODL for 3 more years.

Good sign. High volume with price well supported.

Wait for the storm to pass or buy at lower???. Maybe catching a falling knife? Who Dares Wins??? Fear or Greed??? HMMMM....

Just hit my buy order, typo

Fully agree with valuelurker, short term gyrations should not concern value seekers.

Just hid my buy order 12.98 and 13.02..