supersaiyan3 I did DCF briefly and get like RM11.40.
20/09/2020 11:05 AM

Tangible valuation...#33% are Purely FA...<@8.00...Fair,..<@6.00...Undervalued...#33%...Need to study historical TA price movements... Interest rates at present... macroeconomic factors...plus market directions...on such products or services...#33%... management efficiency...or intangibles valuation.

Not easy bros...Right.

Axe888 @hahalollwtf, yes ASP and Price will fall will fall. We got your message. You can go sleep already. You bark whole day already.
20/09/2020 12:01 AM

Woof...woof...woofff... Barking at the Salah Tree...ಠ ೧ ಠ

pBlue The two viruses can infect the same person, even the same cell. However they cannot swap genetic material. The structure of their genes are too different... the same way you cannot get a cabbage to breed with a mouse.

A double infection would make a bad situation worse. However we will be spared any strange hybrids of the two viruses.

Aiyoo... what's happening in humanity...(●__●)

pjseow geary , the earning growth rate for the past 20 years was about 20 %. I will do a DCF computation.with different assumptions.
19/09/2020 11:09 PM

#10 years a better option...less Margin of Errors...#20% earnings growth...yup.

pjseow geary, RHB previous tgt price was rm11.10 when they used terminal growth rate of 3 %.
19/09/2020 11:03 PM

That's quite fair...so present price can buy or not...???

pjseow RHB is the only analyst used DCF to compute tgt price which is 9.50. The question of what PE.and which year earning to use.to compute tgt price should not arise since all future earnings.from 2021 till infinity are considered . We can only question their profit assumptions , discount and growth rates after.2023. In my opinion, the assumption of 2023 earning.at.4.478 billion is on the high side and the terminal growth.rate of 1 % is too low . The discount.rate of 7 %
is fair .
19/09/2020 10:51 PM

Terminal growth rate 1%...they must out of touch...at least 3%.

A slight changes of discount n terminal rates...the said Intrinsic value at present will be much different...even Buffett n Munger came out with different valuation... that's they never talk so much about DCF.

Fong Zhin Bok Covid 19 virus and H1N1 virus will be present at the same this winter. Both of the virus will infect the same cell and exchange genetic materials while consuming the DNA of the infected human host cell. Therefore, the next generation of Covid 19 or H1N1 virus will be the hybrid of the two virus.

The next generation of virus will have the following property:
a) transmitting rate is same as Covid - 19 virus, 10 times of transmitting rate than H1N1 virus.
b) mutation rate is same as H1N1 virus, higher than the Covid-19 virus.
19/09/2020 10:43 PM

(●__●)

geary : [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD

May 7, 2019 1:02 PM | Report Abuse

Over Diversification... Probably No...there aren't many wonderful companies...a Bird in the hand is Worth two in the Bush...!!!
https://www.forbes.com/sites/garymishuris/2019/05/05/5-insights-from-t...

Probably some thought I was a robot...¯\_༼ᴼل͜ᴼ༽_/¯

jasonred79 eh. did this actually happen? guys? I don't remember glove prices "falling steeply" in june. Was I just not paying attention, or did this actually happen?
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/06/30/glove-prices-soften
19/09/2020 9:46 PM

Bunch of rubbish analysis...maybe they think impregnated 9 women...9 babies can come out in one month...so it takes how many month for a baby to born...ಠ︵ಠ

Herosan Supermax FYE 2021 annualized EPS should be around 1.5-2.00. At present price of 7.6 is very much under value (below PE 5 FYE 2021)
19/09/2020 9:20 PM

Just buy n hold loh.

humongainz @jasonred79 mind sharing how to get in touch with IPO? I am interested but no expereince.
19/09/2020 8:21 PM

IPO are usually issued during bullish market...so many are probably...Initial Public Overpriced or Overhyped...Be careful.

That is abt 1200% return in 20 years which is abt 60% return per annum.

Note: Calculations based on ZERO pandemic in next 20 years, zero dividend rate and zero bonus issue.
19/09/2020 7:56 PM

That guy only 2K...can have 1,750% per year...woof...!!!

Just buy n hold lah. U can gambler a bit also. Just 2,000 shares. After almost 20 years...@2001...IPO...@2.70...Rm 5,400...now become millionaire...how many baggers...I don't know leh...(●__●)

Note: Calculations based on ZERO pandemic in next 20 years, zero dividend rate and zero bonus issue.
19/09/2020 7:56 PM

2001...Glove business expensive...RM 2.70/share...I think his father just anyhow buy with some money...that time Public Bank was selling at around maybe RM 3/4.

geary loong66 My nephew friend went back home last week in Taiping and found a statement that his Dad had 2000 TG shares from Mar 2001 IP0. After check with remisier , shares still valid. Guess how much now worth?
After 1 split and 7 bonus issue, 2000 shares now amount to 244, 608 shares. At 17/9 closing price of 7.79 , now worth rm 1,905, 496 . Awesome!!!
19/09/2020 4:45 PM

This must be true investment story...that time @2001...TopGlove IPO was...@2.70...I think. #2,000 shares only. He just kept it n forgot about it. U see...because I had same experience with my dad HLbank. But no so Kaya lah.

Just buy n hold lah. U can gambler a bit also. Just 2,000 shares. After almost 20 years...@2001...IPO...@2.70...Rm 5,400...now become millionaire...how many baggers...I don't know leh...(●__●)

Rm5,400 become...Rm1,905,496...Wow... gains 35,000%...350 baggers...!!!... Hold... unless u need some money urgently.

Morpheus61 humongainz, geary as stated the link to imgur post is below.

https://imgur.com/o3g0ZDS
19/09/2020 6:26 PM

Thanks. Hahaha...those iBs Risk management still think gloves isn't such a golden goose...by the way. Let see how high it can go next year...will probably stabilised after the 2nd quarter reports.

Makeabuck @geary of course la...everyone should have a plan on whether to buy and when to buy...as everyone have their on ep for their own investment...we all mature here and should decide for ourselves...

Just having a good read on yall discussions...im learning too...never stop getting other perspectives for own analyzing purpose...

Just that some ppl will flock to the forum and post nonsense makes it boring to read...
19/09/2020 6:13 PM

Yup...many people just lazy to analyse deeply...and take responsibility when they invest. They never monitor their investment. Never try to understand the financial statements. That's very high risk. So if something went wrong they blame those who said buy. They never ask themselves what are their weakness n mistakes. That's why there are people blaming here n there...but never blame themselves. Never analyse where are the mistakes, n don't do it again. Sometimes I just keep quiet, but today, since few good guys are analysing, I just say something. Keep on learning anyway.

humongainz Now, instead of thinking of investing TG as primarily a glove company, if you intend to go long, ask yourself this question, would you invest in a company specializing in an array of different rubber/healthcare related products, in Malaysia where they are just primed to do so. I predict that the next factories to be built in Thailand and Indonesia as they had expressed the intention of owning their own rubber plantations to reduce volatility of rubber pricing and shortages. Another good reason to build factories/plantations over there would be the wider sales channel besides lower overheads. In fact, Vietnam is one of the cheaper places for this, so Lim must have this in mind oso, assuming he is a visionary. Then again, he actually built factories before pandemic started, so I don't know, everything seems to be just lined up for him.

Then again, better for them to just their name to TG, instead of TopGlove, must nicer sounding for a more diversified business.
19/09/2020 6:11 PM

I think Tan Sri Lim, already had a small rubber plantation in Southern Thailand. Small plant processing natural rubber. Maybe he can collaborate with Petronas to build more synthetic rubber manufacturing plant in Malaysia. That's will benefit it's nitrile gloves cost of production n margins. I think he will, because this two years, he got the free cash flow.

Makeabuck I finally reading some good discussions thanks @humongainz @geary @jasonred79 @growingrich
19/09/2020 6:01 PM

Don't see so far...less than 3 years enough...don't jump over a ten feet barrier...look for a 2.5 feet to jump over. Now is Covid19... remember it n analyse it thoroughly...plus it's mutating, very scary right. So can buy or not... TopGlove...this...Price...nobody point a gun forcing u okay. U decide after all the facts n database, understand first then decide.

Vc Looi The world in the recent years never short of pandemic, in around 3-5 years there will be pandemic here and there be it flu be ebora be it covid-19 and in future there sure be another pandemic, dont just focus on and only think that covid is the only pandemic..
19/09/2020 5:47 PM

Normally a ten years average earnings growth of 25% is okay. 5 years much higher. 2.5 years very much higher. So we focus less than 3 years... that's 2.5 years. So the the earnings growth very high. I can slap a 50x PE multiple for all glove counters...no problem. Any PE below 50x is consider reasonable. That's below 3 years average, because of present Covid19 maybe other type of bacterial infections, etc. So at present TopGlove is selling at below 35x PE it's okay for u to invest...ask yourself...if not don't buy...if yes just buy. What so difficult.

jasonred79 Opposite happened to me. I bought a bunch of eurospan like 15 years ago because they were giving good dividend, then I somehow forgot about them. Took a look recently and they lost 35%... haiz!!!
19/09/2020 5:13 PM

Eurospan...what product or service...many old people buy share to keep n take dividend...like my dad. Lucky he bought HLbank. Got bonus one time only. The rest dividend n right issues. That's why I said just now:
1. Dividend Growth Investing.
2. Value Growth Investing.

No question about it.
19/09/2020 5:22 PM

Plus must always monitor your investment at least half yearly...any earnings or dividend down are red flags. Sell.

Axe888 @wengtat,pls ask your fren and IB throw as low as possible for charity ,so that more ppl can afford to collect it. If possible below rm5.
19/09/2020 4:49 PM

Yup...wait long long...the opposite will happen...with such rumours.

loong66 My nephew friend went back home last week in Taiping and found a statement that his Dad had 2000 TG shares from Mar 2001 IP0. After check with remisier , shares still valid. Guess how much now worth?
After 1 split and 7 bonus issue, 2000 shares now amount to 244, 608 shares. At 17/9 closing price of 7.79 , now worth rm 1,905, 496 . Awesome!!!
19/09/2020 4:45 PM

This must be true investment story...that time @2001...TopGlove IPO was...@2.70...I think. #2,000 shares only. He just kept it n forgot about it. U see...because I had same experience with my dad HLbank. But no so Kaya lah.

wengtat I dont usually use the forum. But I felt like i needed to let someone know before something bad happens. Would be terrible if they really work together. All the best guys
19/09/2020 4:34 PM

Friend or not... because of money n prestige...no one will tell u the real truth... don't be naive.

humongainz jasonred79 Interesting perspective. If the IB win, I have nothing to say dy, and will never in my life touch Bursa again.
19/09/2020 4:32 PM

In the bloody long run...the Glove Whales still Win... it's your own stamina n emotion that's make the difference.

I see many cannot endure those emotional...STRESS...to earn big money.

TigerWoods geary
No fool proof okay...mother shares is still golden goose...^_^

Yes ... i only hold mother shares.... For the loooooggg term. I never contra
19/09/2020 3:56 PM

By two more quarters...TopGlove...will be damn good...@18.00.

geary TigerWoods Morpheus61
humongainz, it's all about the warrants
125.5 million underlying TG shares at an avg Strike price of RM 6.18
That should give you a fair idea

WOW !!! cant wait to queue at that price. Will get my bullets ready
19/09/2020 3:46 PM

No fool proof okay...mother shares is still golden goose...^_^
19/09/2020 3:49 PM

Lowest on SEP 10...was...#6.15...then limit up...@8.03...am time...so analyse that okay...mother share is still the golden goose.

humongainz More like very high risk high gain, with small market like Bursa, you don't just have IBs, you also have sifus sending buy sell calls, if youre lower in the Peking order of the news chain, you'll get thoroughly screwed.
19/09/2020 3:44 PM

Yup...be prepared.

Morpheus61 humongainz, it's all about the warrants
125.5 million underlying TG shares at an avg Strike price of RM 6.18
That should give you a fair idea
19/09/2020 3:42 PM

Banyak Pandai...but we shall see...how those manipulators react to Mr. Market. No fool proof strategies.

humongainz Small gloves even easier to manipulate. Good if you know the manipulators well. Shit if you don't.
19/09/2020 3:39 PM

High risk high gain...but please know your trading strategies.

ThePowerOfGlove Well if you got substantial spare cash you could indulge in some range play I guess

Could be quite lucrative but at the same time also somewhat high risk
19/09/2020 3:35 PM

Just remember to sell high buy low...but where is the low point...that u have to study the historical charts... sometimes u must put a cut lost at certain price. Preserve your free cash by all means.

Morpheus61 BountyoftheBourse. If that question was for me, my response: What affects me is the manipulation.
19/09/2020 3:29 PM

I always like Volatility n some irrational manipulation...B-)

BountyOfTheBourse No I don't want to sell I don't want to run

And many other guys here feel the same like me too

Okay?
19/09/2020 3:21 PM

I see many aren't focus n patience enough...most are contra or margin traders. I only use 10% for that. Investing for big money need to be very, very patient...if u understand your investment. It's a Marathon n a Sprint.

geary supersinginvestor Geary@wat ur glove u like ?
19/09/2020 3:13 PM

At present only TopGlove...@50% my capital...n some in Supermax...@20%...N...#30%...free cash...8-)
19/09/2020 3:16 PM

Just an illustration...I can change like a...Chameleon...very quick...^_^

geary. There are only two profitable investing:
1. Value Growth Investing.
2. Dividend Growth Investing.

All Must have growth...no growth or erratic earnings n dividend...share price will go sideways...n downtrend...no question about it.
19/09/2020 2:29 PM

Plus market volatility is always there...Mr. Market can be very irrational at time...n can be very rational at time... it's a matter of how you manage your Risks.
19/09/2020 2:38 PM

Diversification only taught in business school. So we are real life investors n traders. So be focus...on earnings growth or dividend growth investing. Go for the jugular if u spot a very good chance. If not just hold or stay on shore. Do remember to sell some on strength to have cash on shore. Usually Mr. Market is volatile anyway which way u see it.

Dividend cannot make u filthy rich. Maybe the most 10% yield/year. Focus more on capital gains...study some TA...besides FA...plus market directions or trends.

Edwardong53 Don't know true is it that my friend was telling us that IBs have been doing "Permitted Short Selling" or PSS which is allowed by Bursa bcos many of their warrants are expiring in last quarter of 2020. Therefore, these IBs are manipulating the glove counters like TopGlov & Supermax with high volatility every day.
19/09/2020 2:12 PM

There are only two profitable investing:
1. Value Growth Investing.
2. Dividend Growth Investing.

All Must have growth...no growth or erratic earnings n dividend...share price will go sideways...n downtrend...no question about it.
19/09/2020 2:29 PM

Plus market volatility is always there...Mr. Market can be very irrational at time...n can be very rational at time... it's a matter of how you manage your Risks.

Our geary is definitely a long time loyal TopGlove supporter

So you could just imagine it

How much profit he is now sitting on

If he had bought like 500 big lots of TopGlove at then cheap time
19/09/2020

I bought in stages lah...since gloves got overcapacity problems...net margins was only 7/8%. My lowest price was...@4.40...in May 2019. Then I did sold some when it was above 11.00. bought back again above average...@20.00. I win quite a lot...I didn't compute...my average price probably below...@6.00.

hahalolwtf yes, i agree. Weak retailers out. Now left banks with expiring CW that are going to sell down. Just wait.
19/09/2020 1:53 PM

Good chance to add...CW or whatever derivatives are good for long term investing...for earnings growth counter. I have been Q'ing at below...@6.00 for long time...only got some at...#6.18...last SEP 10. So how they hedge also cannot beat big whales of gloves lah.

Invest1688 Geary: surprise you are still in this forum
Few days ago you said TG will drop till $4
I thought you already sold at $4?
19/09/2020 1:43 PM

Probably u didn't know who l am...I was in TopGlove since May 2019.

hahalolwtf all gloves are already on downtrend. Just see 1 month chart. How much have they all fallen? Run while you can
19/09/2020 1:03 PM

At present...Hedging Funds cannot fight the gloves whales...be rational.

AudiQ7 Yes..but someone was mentioning about TG as a non growing company with PE of 6 which is absurd
18/09/2020 10:44 PM

Who is the guy...oh...maybe he is 95 years like Mahathir.

AudiQ7 and you bet Top Glove is a ‘NOT growing’ company? Blearghhhhh...
18/09/2020 10:37 PM

TopGlove still very young lah...less than 30 years old...PE multiple must be around 25x.

macquarie cant even break 8rm ..... very sad.... will sell my 5k lots monday
18/09/2020 10:25 PM

TopGlove... Supermax or Careplus...u choose...all super earnings growth...plus crazy margins at present.

Aesop's Fables, or the Aesopica, is a collection of fables credited to Aesop, a slave and storyteller believed to have lived in ancient Greece between 620 and 564 BCE.

Aesop, "A bird in the hand is worth two in the Bush."...I already have a strong balance sheet, little debts, increasing free cash, organic business growth and a super earnings growth company in my hand...at a reasonable price...it's not easy to find another among those earnings growth companies at present time...the closest I can think of is Supermax.

"Since I have two hands and some free cash...why not grab another one bird." geary.

Agjl Someone here even said 4 is coming， he is one step ahead of ubs:))). I also hope your tp come thru so i can buy
18/09/2020 8:51 PM

No...they are queuing at 52 weeks low...@1.40...or NTA...@0.61...much better...Mr. Market will quotes it one day... don't u worry.
18/09/2020 8:58 PM

Or they are waiting for Topglov...PE multiple of 10.89...same like Maybank...then why low PE still down...ahrr...

KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 18): The Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers Association (MARGMA) has called for vigilance over unscrupulous individuals or companies masquerading as representatives of big bonafide manufacturers.

Its president, Denis Low Jau Foo, said the association has urged its members to be proactive in tracking down scammers with the assistance of the police and private investigators.

“This act is clearly tarnishing the image of the industry and Malaysia. It has an adverse effect on the global trade economy,” he said in a statement today following a recent report by the Wall Street Journal about fake medical gloves being peddled in the United States.

At the same time, he called on buyers, distributors, and importers to understand that genuine manufacturers are doing their best to supply adequately, unlike the opportunist middlemen who exploit with fake promises.

“This industry is a mature and well-established industry where businesses and regular buyers are aware of genuine manufacturers, while newcomers are susceptible to scammers,” he said.

Low added that the supply and demand dynamics are lopsided due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but the industry is doing its best to churn out as many gloves as possible to meet the extraordinary demand across the globe.

MARGMA members are being hampered by several factors to make more gloves, and the major stumbling blocks causing the bottleneck are the huge shortage of workers and raw materials, he said.

“According to our calculations, the industry could lose out on the opportunity to export more than 80 billion pieces of gloves in 2020 by not having enough workers. This translates to about RM7.6 billion in export revenue for Malaysia,” he said.

Hence, he asked the Government to allow a reasonable number of foreign workers to work in factories.

He said approximately 40 percent of the workforce are locals who hold leadership, professional and technical positions, and this group is highly paid.

“We seek the Government’s support to ensure that enough local workers are available to sustain this top 40 percent bracket,” he said.

On the business side, Low said MARGMA is revising its export revenue projection for 2020, from RM21.8 billion to RM29.8 billion, based on the performance in the first half of the year.

“MARGMA projected that in the next six months, the export revenue is expected to touch RM18 billion. The quantity is estimated to reach 130 billion pieces of gloves.

“For 2021, MARGMA estimates that our annual export revenue should touch RM33.8 billion, with quantity increasing to 270 billion pieces,” he said.

Whether the demand for gloves would continue to be as strong as it is now, Low said it could take several years for the industry to fulfil the demand as it stands today.

“A sizeable factory would take 18 to 24 months to churn out three to four billion pieces of gloves per annum, and it requires about RM200 to RM250 million to build such a factory.

“Engineering and material support must also expand in tandem, otherwise, they would not be able to cope with the expansion programme,” he said.

tallman USB tp SGD 5.00 = RM15 is achievable in 9 months :)
18/09/2020 5:30 PM

Yup...in the range of...@15.00 -@20.00...^_^

PureBULL ... KISS n Remember this equation if you r VALUE investors:
TOPGLOV = Harta + Kossan + Supermx + COMFORT + K+

in exceeding total PAT n soon entitled to their mkt cap combined.

NB: TG just have to delist from SGX, n list in HK or anywhere asap .,.
18/09/2020 5:47 PM

Yup... don't list in SGX...too Boring...no much buyers n sellers sometimes.

KUALA LUMPUR: Top Glove Corp Bhd has earmarked RM8 billion for capital expenditure (capex) over the next six years, indirectly brushing aside concerns over a glove glut or fiercer competition from new entrants.

The massive capex was disclosed after Top Glove posted its best ever full-year net profit and revenue.

The group's net profit surged to an all-time high of RM1.87 billion in the year ended August 31 2020 from RM364.68 million previously.

This came on tne back of a record revenue of RM7.24 billion, a significant increase from last year's revenue of RM4.8 billion.

Top Glove has recommended a final dividend of 8.5 sen per share, amounting to a payout of RM691.8 million. This brings the total financial year dividend payout to 11.8 sen per share, amounting to a total payout of RM961.2 million.

The total dividend of 11.8 sen represents an increase of 9.3 sen or 373 per cent over financial year 2019, which is a net profit payout ratio of 51 per cent.

Top Glove executive chairman Tan Sri Dr Lim Wee Chai said the capex would be invested in several key areas including new capacity, enhancement of existing manufacturing facilities, Industry 4.0 initiatives, a gamma sterilisation plant, land bank for future expansion, IT upgrades, as well as workers' facilities.

"The expansion of its production line over the six years will add 100 billion pieces per annum to the group's production capacity from the current 85.5 billion pieces per annum.

"For financial year ending August 31, 2021, the company is planning to invest RM1.9 billion in capex to build new factory, buy new machinery and acquire land," he told reporters and analysts during a virtual briefing of Top Glove's 2020 performance yesterday.

Managing director Datuk Lee Kim Meow said the sizeable capex was allocated to meet the growing market demand for its glove products and the company's optimism on the increase in average selling prices (ASPs) moving forward.

Lee said the average ASP for nitrile gloves was at US$70 per 1,000 pieces and US$45 for latex gloves.

"In October, the group expects a 30 per cent increase in ASPs for nitrile gloves and a five per cent increase in latex gloves ASPs, with a potential on another 10 per cent increase for both glove products beginning November onward," said Lee.

He said with Covid-19, Top Glove had estimated that glove demand would grow by 20 per cent per annum in 2020, 25 per cent in 2021 and 15 per cent post-Covid-19.

Meanwhile, Lim said Top Glove was planning to list on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong in the next six to nine months, as it eyed for expansion beyond Malaysia and Singapore shores.

He said the company was in talks with bankers to find the most suitable method to go for listing in Hong Kong.

Besides Malaysia, the company is also currently listed on the Singapore Exchange.

Top Glove's American Depositary Receipt (ADR) is also available in over the counter exchange in the US.

"We always think big and dream big, in hope of achieving big. As you know, Hong Kong stock exchange has a market capitalisation of US$5.5 trillion, which is 10 times of Malaysia or Singapore.

"This is a big market and we always look to higher value add in bigger market. Similar to our glove business, we would like to create demand for our shares and there are demand for it (in Hong Kong) — it is a good direction for us," Lim said.

Despite announcing the strong results, Top Glove closed 64 sen lower on Thursday, or 7.59 per cent, at RM7.79.

ahpooki2 UBS analyst setting TP of 5.0 but asking to hold??..weird, isnt it? maybe he meant USD5.0...
18/09/2020 5:20 PM

Oh...so next year SEP...USD5.00 X 4.10...>RM 20.00...:-)

Makeabuck That day mccurry put report TSLWC buy back now UBS pulak dunno TSLWC will another buyback or not hahaha...kasi one tight slap that fella UBS...
18/09/2020 5:06 PM

Don't worry...Boss standby...RM 210M...more than UBS...to buy back. Tan Sri is a good boss.