Yup, HSR could spill over to revival of Bandar Malaysia

ERL - was awarded the concession on August 25 1997 to finance, design, construct, operate and maintain both rail services for 30 years.

ERL secure further extension 30 year in exchange for review the rail fare on three occasions under intial concession agreement

After MRT3, next will be HSR. As HSR is fully private funded, YTL again have strongest financial strength. YTL ERL express train concession business model is best model to applied on HSR. For information YTL ERL is commercial viable and profiting business model under 30 year concession and extend another later for another 30 year. For coming HSR, the initial concession may be longer, 50 year or 60 year and can be extended by another period later

i only can said odds is high base on face table, under table nobody known. But if gov really wish to cut cost, YTL is best and fulfil all criteria which give gov good credit and show to public to vote and win in upcoming state election,.

YTL able to bid for lowest is simply due to its strong in house cement production (command 60% Malaysia market share) and in house building material supply chain (operate Malaysia largest Quarry in Batu Tiga). YTL through control major construction building material cost have enable it to bid for lowest.

Gov wish to cut cost by RM 5 billion on MRT3 from RM 50 billion to RM 45 billion. For CMC302 package alone , YTL clearly meet gov wish to cut cost by RM 1 billion or 20% of targeted cut cost RM 5 billion from overall total cost

Despite IJM involvements in Mrt and mrt2, YTL have vast experienced in train infrastructure and is currently building Gemas double track train and previously built and operate EDL link KL airport and is earlier winner HSR.

Open tender should be based on lowest bidder as all jobs scope in tender are same applies to all bidder.

Of course, cannot rule out if Unity government face political interference later, chose other than lowest bidder as winner.

But, if fair and transparent apply to administration, it should pick lowest bidder as winner, gov with tight budget at least can save RM 1 billion cost to pick YTL RM 10.8 billlion vs. second lowest IjM RM 11. 8 billion

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2023/04/897175/mrt3-project-cost-review-ready-june

In summary, YTL seraya plan to be one stop energy solution, capitalize full cycle in both fuel and non fuel power generation to transform captured biogenic CO2 and green hydrogen produced from renewable electricity into green e-methanol and making this low carbon fuel commercially accessible for the maritime industry.

YTL PowerSeraya also actively conduct feasibility to set up first green e-methanol plant which converts captured biogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) into green e-methanol, a low carbon fuel, that could enable a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The pilot plant will be set up in Singapore with a minimum capacity of 50,000 tons per annum (TPA), and will be the first of its kind in Southeast Asia.

YTL PowerSeraya, Green data center brand - YTL Data Center Holdings, is actively conduct feasibility of using clean hydrogen to power the data centre ecosystem in Singapore. Hydrogen fuel is highly viable if compared to solar power which require large tract of land. Hydrogen fuel is highly suitable green energy to power up Singapore base green data center, reduce carbon tax,

YTL PowerSeraya EV charging brand – ChargEco, have won a tender from the Land Transport Authority (LTA) to build charging points at Housing & Development Board (HDB) carparks in the Central and East regions of Singapore. Chargo also expand to deliver charging services at private premises, such as condominiums, shopping malls, commercial buildings and industrial parks

YTL PowerSeraya retail brand – Geneco, is Singapore No. 1 residential electricity retailer under contract range 6 to 2year lock in electricity traffic to ensure steady profit margin

In June 2022, The government of Singapore proposed laws to regulate electric vehicle charging in Singapore. Under this proposal, all new buildings with carparks must install electric vehicle charging points in at least 1 percent of their total car and motorcycle parking space,

Singapore is leading the EV charging infrastructure with 1,800 public charging outlets accessible across the country and plans to add 60,000 charging sites by 2030.

Singapore government promotes vehicle manufacturers for vehicle electrification by announcing that new electric vehicles and taxis registered between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2023 would receive a 45% rebate off the additional registration fees (ARF) tax. Such incentive helps to enhance the sale of electric vehicles across the country during the forecast period.

YTL wholly own YTL cement (97% stake) is actually far bigger than Mcement. YTL through YTL cement control 78% in Mcement and hold additional unlisted Mcement RCPS which can be converted to Mcement anytime to boots up its stake to 85%, YTL cement operation is larger than Mcement and and record much higher profit than Mcement contribution alone

YTL cement aside through Mcement involve in cement manufacture, YTL cement also operate own upstream construction material like sand, limestone, gravel, concrete, precast and operate Malaysia largest Quarry in Batu Tiga, provide in house raw material for cement production and supply such building material for external construction and property development.

YTL also partner CRCC to bid MRT3 system work package worth RM 7 - RM 10 billion and also partner to bid HSR next tender for HSR

MRT3 tender result already release, YTL corp biding for CMC302 is the lowest RM 10.8 billion, IJM is second lowest at RM 11.8 billion. Gov manage to save at least RM 1 billion if award according to tender result.

be patient, just wait for MRT3 award soon, likely before state election to boost up feel good factors

cut at 60sen

sold back at 82.5sen

These year 2023, BYD surpass tesla as top seller EV car in Singapore. Each EV consume 40 kWh per charging, average 4 time a month, is equivalent to about 50-60% electric consumption for Singapore average monthly household.

Singapore energy demand will continue surging due to aggressive gov policy to encourage EV charging station to meet vertical growing in EV vehicle volume.

YTL seraya is task to built 1700 EV charging station to meet growing number of EV in singapore. These new power demand for EV is new market to develop by YTL retailer at expense to petrol station.

Tomorrow will see flux of analyst report to call STRONG buy

Previously afraid of penalty if prolong time may now gone, Armanda speedy repair and recover production together and lump all together by bring early annual 2 week shutdown maintenance altogether. The net impact to yearly production volume is minimum now, only need pat extra repair cost which is well cover by gain in vessel sold

With such speedy repair and resume production, the impact on profit is minimum now and extra cost can well cover back by recent monetize disposal proceed from Claire

60% recovery in production volume is commendable

bought at 47.5sen

Its funny market response negative to Singapore to End 3,000% Power Price Spikes which is normal for gov to intervene market to cap extreme 3000% hike in profit as hike is not due to input cost gas, but due to imbalance during peak hour power demand. Without these recent 3000% hike, YTL already profit RM 800m, what will 3000% translate into profit ?

In short, Q1 YTL record RM800m is the lowest profit floor level based on its retail price 30senKWh and wholesale price at 27sen KWh. Q2 onward as long as wholesale price above 27senKWh, any surplus is top up to RM 800m floor level as YTL derive both dual profit from both retailer and wholesale

Remark: under normal circumstance, wholesale price should be lower than contract retail price which is main business model for independent retailer and generation company with high retail exposure than its own power capacity to capitalize on price gap different for profit. But, the situation now is reverse, wholesale price is far higher than retail price.

Don forget to court in jordan power plant contribution begin June 2023 onwards. Wessex water at least reverse back from loss making to profit, which is huge swing to YTL profit too. Other factos like sgd currency + 5% and pound +8%

dragon328
My estimation is based on YTL seraya retail price and wholesale price tag to arrive estimation. In Q1, YTL record RM 800m based on retail price 30sen kwh + wholesale 270Mwh (27sen kwh). Incoming Q2, retail price at 29senkwh + wholesale 450Mwh (45sen kwh). From july onward, gov intend to cap the extreme outlier frequency occasion 4500 Mwhr through circuit breaker to cooling off extreme daily rate to reduce UESP and average monthly wholesale rate, but as long as supply demand imbalance continue, the frequency trigger may cooling off, but wholesale rate should remain well above average 400MWh. Therefore, offering Q1 as YTL year to date lowest floor price RM 800m with upside exceed RM 1 billion if wholesale continue remain above its retail price

The factual to singapore energy market is demand exceed supply at peak hour. These condition will NO change only after few year later once new power plant start to supply more energy to market. In the meantime, Singapore energy demand will continue surging due to aggressive gov policy to encourage EV charging station to meet vertical growing in EV vehicle volume

Currency factor strengthen further in SGD will top up additional 5% net profit forward

The wholesale electricity price rose to S$503/MWh in May from S$325/MWh in April, and even higher by end of June later. These 3 month average wholesale rate in Q2 is almost 60% higher than Q1. Therefore, upcoming YTLP may report exceed RM 1 billion profit compared to Q1 RM 800m.

The following Q once CAP implement will only reduce fraction of wholesale power rate due to demand exceed supply, gov intervene is to to circuit break wholesale power rate from continue climbing up above 3500 MWhr through trigger multiple time cap level at 4500 MWhr (half hour oeak hour rate). Overall, wholesale power rate is well above 400 MWhr forward, above Q1 level, offerring YTL power at least RM 800m in next few quarter

dragon328

I view contrary, YTL seraya will record even higher profit forward. The latest cap by Singapore gov is specific target to extreme peak rate, 4500/MWh Capped at the ratio between the prevailing
TPC and Energy Price Cap of $4,500/MWh.

bought back ytlp at 1.20, resume dual exposure for both YTL and YTLP in portfolio

Currently, YTL seraya geneco selling only 28.9sen kwh for contract customer and selling 45sen kwh (450 MWh) in wholesale market rate.

Gov only cap TAC occasion for extreme outlier rate at 4500 MWh (only apply to half an hour for each occasion) to try to reduce 24 hour average wholesale market rate.

Currently, wholesale rate is 450 Mwh in may, already further spike up to 520 Mwh in month of May and likely in june as well

Singapore average wholesale electricity for 2023, wholesale price vs. retail contract selling price to customer by geneco)
January - 219.13 MWh (21.9 sen kwh, lower than retail contract selling price)
February - 222.53 MWh (22.2 sen kwh, lower than retail contract selling price)
March - 337.77 (33.7sen, higher than retail contract selling price)
April - 324.04 (32.4sen kwh, higher than retail contract selling price 28.9sen kwh)
May - est 450 (45sen kwh, higher than retail contract selling price 28.9sen kwh)
June - est 520 (52sen kwh, higher than retail contract selling price 28.9sen kwh

Remark: under Singapore free market, independent retailer or generation company with higher retailer demand than its own generation capacity are sourcing their energy suppy and shortfall power respectively, through wholesale market to profit the price difference between wholesale price and customer end user retail price. These business allow profit in time wholesale price is lower than retail price, and loss if verse versa.

Singapore average wholesale electricity for 2023, wholesale price vs. retail contract selling price to customer by geneco)
January - 219.13 MWh (21.9 sen kwh, lower than retail contract selling price)
February - 222.53 MWh (22.2 sen kwh, lower than retail contract selling price)
March - 337.77 (33.7sen, higher than retail contract selling price)
April - 324.04 (32.4sen kwh, higher than retail contract selling price 28.9sen kwh)
May - est 450 (45sen kwh, higher than retail contract selling price 28.9sen kwh)
June - est 520 (52sen kwh, higher than retail contract selling price 28.9sen kwh

Remark: under Singapore free market, independent retailer or generation company with higher retailer demand than its own generation capacity are sourcing their energy suppy and shortfall power respectively, through wholesale market to profit the price difference between wholesale price and customer end user retail price. These business allow profit in time wholesale price is lower than retail price, and loss if verse versa.

Boustead unlikely to sell boustead plantation stake. It will opt to sell boustead plantation landbank in several location like johor to YTL, sabah and sarawark land to wilmar or IOI , depending on price tag offer. Once sold, will declare special dividend to boustead to help repay its borrowing

Gotyou

Thanks for your detail figure particular on information related to power plant financial report and possible right call due to detail in restricted on retain earning which make jaks insufficient to subcribe 10% stake. I have tried many time to cut at 19sen, but ended cut all at 18.5sen to free up capital

Currently, YTL seraya geneco selling only 28.9sen kwh for contract customer and selling 45sen kwh (450 MWh) in wholesale market rate.

Gov only cap TAC occasion for extreme outlier rate at 4500 MWh (only apply to half an hour for each occasion) to try to reduce 24 hour average wholesale market rate.

Currently, wholesale rate is 450 Mwh in April, already further spike up to 520 Mwh in month of May and likely in june as well

Currently, YTL seraya geneco selling only 28.9sen kwh for contract customer and selling 45sen kwh (450 MWh) in wholesale market rate.

Gov only cap TAC occasion for extreme outlier rate at 4500 MWh (only apply to half an hour for each occasion) to try to reduce 24 hour average wholesale market rate.

Currently, wholesale rate is 450 Mwh in April, already further spike up to 520 Mwh in month of May and likely in june as well

Temporary Price Cap (TPC) mechanism is needed to act as a “circuit breaker”
to mitigate vicious cycle of sustained volatility and risk aversion in the SWEM and
restore the orderly functioning of the broader market. The TPC mechanism is intended to act as a short-term measure to stop the vicious cycle of volatility and risk aversion, and allow time to identify and address the
cause(s) of the extreme price volatility, by temporarily capping the USEP at a level
lower than the existing Energy Price Cap. When activated in times of extreme price
volatility, it will mitigate excessive risks to all SWEM participants including Gencos,
retailers and consumers buying from the SWEM, while still allowing the USEP to
fluctuate and reflect demand and supply conditions

a. All energy suppliers such as the Gencos will continue to submit energy
offer prices up to the Energy Price Cap of $4,500/MWh.
b. If the marginal energy offer price (i.e. the highest energy offer price
needed to meet system demand) is below the TPC, the USEP will
continue to be set based on the marginal energy offer price. If the
marginal energy offer price is at or above the TPC, the USEP will be
capped at the TPC

All in, YTL seraya and its retailer, Geneco, have very least affected as YTL locked retail selling price 28.9sen kwh ahead for 6 month - 2 year and any excess electricity sell to wholesale market for extra margin if wholesale market rate is higher than its locked its contract rate

TPC only affect in extreme cap level at 4500/MWh, a extreme PEAK hour, an outlier rate apply and cap at 4500/MWh or 4.5/KWh for only half an hour in each occasion, but these outlier, extreme high 4500/MWh now happening too many time in a day, have causing spike increase in final calculation for 24 hour average wholesale price.

The gov now trying is cap these extreme outlier time which fetch extreme high traffic rate at every half an hour occasion, limit these outlier in single day will decrease final 24 hour average wholesale price.

All in, YTL seraya and its retailer, Geneco, have very least affected as YTL locked retail selling price 28.9sen kwh ahead for 6 month - 2 year and any excess electricity sell to wholesale marketwith TPC only affect in extreme cap level at 4500/MWh, a extreme PEAK hour, an outlier rate apply and cap at 4500/MWh or 4.5/KWh for only half an hour in each occasion, but these outlier, extreme high 4500/MWh now happening too many time in a day, have causing spike increase in final calculation for 24 hour average wholesale price.

The gov now trying is cap these extreme outlier time which fetch extreme high traffic rate at every half an hour occasion, limit these outlier in single day will decrease final 24 hour average wholesale price.

Temporary Price Cap (TPC) mechanism is needed to act as a “circuit breaker”
to mitigate vicious cycle of sustained volatility and risk aversion in the SWEM and
restore the orderly functioning of the broader market. The TPC mechanism is intended to act as a short-term measure to stop the vicious cycle of volatility and risk aversion, and allow time to identify and address the
cause(s) of the extreme price volatility, by temporarily capping the USEP at a level
lower than the existing Energy Price Cap. When activated in times of extreme price
volatility, it will mitigate excessive risks to all SWEM participants including Gencos,
retailers and consumers buying from the SWEM, while still allowing the USEP to
fluctuate and reflect demand and supply conditions

a. All energy suppliers such as the Gencos will continue to submit energy
offer prices up to the Energy Price Cap of $4,500/MWh.
b. If the marginal energy offer price (i.e. the highest energy offer price
needed to meet system demand) is below the TPC, the USEP will
continue to be set based on the marginal energy offer price. If the
marginal energy offer price is at or above the TPC, the USEP will be
capped at the TPC

Dragon328

Not only independent sole retailer need to buy wholesale power to supply to its customer, some generations with retailer division also need to complete to get wholesale power as their own production cannot meet their retailer demand.

These is because despite almost all power generation have own retailer, but their power capacity mismatch their supplies comtract demand end user. These is their business model alike produce 1 MW but need to supply 2 MW by leverage up their retail market share through bidding in wholesale market. These generation company may only meet 50% capacity only to consumer by sources anothet 50% in wholesale market. It is good time in last few year when wholesale market is xheap due to oversupply, but, it get backfire now as wholesale market is tight and rate is higher than their contract with customer, offsetting their profit

YTL geneco retailer actually offer selling electricity rate at 28.9sen kwh is actually slightly lower than last year. But, geneco in actual fetch even higher margin than last year as fuel gas cost is much more lower, resulted margin expansion.

As more and more public to lock in contract rate, less and less excess power channel to pool wholesale market, supply become less and demand is increasing in peak hour have causing spike in wholesale spot power rate now

Currently, YTL seraya retailer unit, Geneco, offer retail electricity traffic rate is 28.9sen/kwh.

But, the wholesale electricity rate is 450/ Mwh or 45sen/kwh.

Therefore, those independent retailers or government agency SP retailer without own power generation need to buy expensive from wholesale market to supply electricity to its end user at hefty loss if didn't hedge their position significantly.

However, for power seraya with own genco market retailer, it locked in margin through own power generation to meet it contract end user.
The excess power power then only channel to wholesale market to fetch high but volatile spot wholesale price rate.

UBS holding increased YTL corp stake due to acquiring 5,867,100 shares in open market