Buy on weakness, sell on strength

bought back all jaks at 68-69sen

Enough profit for today, Wait for next week to re-enter back

sold jaks-wb at 42.5-43sen

sold back jaks at 73sen

sold back bjcorp at 20sen

With CPECC capability to catch up work progress speedy, the COD still on track to to commenced 6 month ahead of original scheduled Dec. By next month, the reliability test should commence and connection to the grid will tested. COD should be anytime between June-july, eliminating risk of delay due to covid virus

越南海阳项目管带式输送机开装

　　3月17日13时38分，越南海阳2×600MW燃煤电厂工程管带式输送机F1桁架安全吊装就位，标志着越南海阳电厂管带式输送机安装拉开序幕。

越南海阳电厂管带输送机自厂内灰库到厂外灰场卸料转运站，管径400mm，皮带带宽B=1600mm，长度L=2050m，高度H=32m，共110跨桁架。此次安装的F1桁架为整个管带机桁架的第一跨，全长21.065m,总重量8.8吨。吊装过程中，机械、起重、安装人员配合默契，桁架平稳吊装就位。

　　管带机F1桁架的成功就位，为后续管带机安装打下了坚实基础。


http://www.apcc2.ceec.net.cn/art/2020/3/18/art_8427_2085281.html

1 USD = RM 4.40

JAks do nothing, but the profit from IPP which is USD denominated + Tax free keep go increasing value.

bought back jaks at 67-68sen

sdd jaks-wb at 37-37.5sen

sold back vs at 64-65sen

bought VS at 62sen

bought jaks-wb at 39-39.5sen

bought bjcorp at 17.5sen

bought bjland at 12.5-13sen

The delay COD is due to Vietnam ban Chinese engineer enter border. Vietnam have stop all visa issuance. CPECC hope for special green zone arrangement to allow power plant to proceed.....

too bad, Dow future gain hit limit down. Portfolio opt for almost cash again, stay sideline

cut all at 73sen

JAKS has formed a bullish engulfing candle accompanied by improved volumes. The MACD Histogram has turned green, but the RSI remains oversold. Monitor for a rebound above the RM0.83 level, targeting the RM0.96 and RM1.06 levels. Support will be set around the RM0.69 level.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/MplusOnline/2020-03-18-story-h1484898442-M_Online_Technical_Focus_18_March_2020.jsp

add more jaks at 74sen with all margin line

bought back all Jaks at 75-75.5sen

sold back all jaks at 76-77sen

sold back all jaks-wb at 45-46sen

use margin line, bought jaks-wb at 43-43.5sen

China itself already have many effective treatment, that is reason why the amount of patient recover can be as high as 69,0000. The effective treatment is combination of Chinese traditional medicine + western.

However, it still need clinical trial to scientifically proven and register

Many clinical trial already underway. Although massive production still need time year later. But, as long as initial clinical trail can show positive result, it is good enough to show that virus can be prevented through vaccination and such scientific outcome will increase understanding on virus. T

The more understanding will result reduce risk of uncertainty significantly. Worldwide already try to replicate China success in virus containment through travel ban.

China have show its experience in virus containment and have lend helpful hand to other country. China now is global leader and will become stronger after these outbreak is under control.

maxprofit2020

World wide government have give maximum dosage 'medicine' in response to virus and spur up economic. Such maximum dosage may have some side effect, causing panic in short term.

But, the 'medicine' still is effective treatment, therefore, its matter of time, market will recovery albeit at gradually pace

After series of volatile session, i believe US market already hit rock bottom near 20,000. With such drastic 'medicine', the treatment effect will surface soon. stock market will turn from panic to calm down and recovery soon.

Stock beaten down is through elevator, but stock recovery is through escalator. Be patient, stay calm as market panic still need a little time to gradually build up confident

Portfolio return back all to jaks

bought back all jaks at 70sen

maxprofit2020

Thanks, I now keep almost all cash in portfolio.

cut all jaks at 78-79sen

Dear OTB

If possible, explain to Mr Koon, with power plant ready for COD soon and tumbling oil price. The odds for Jaks to double its share price from 83sen to > 1.60 is much higher than Dayang to rebound back from 1.26 to > RM 2.50 within 3-6 month time.

After all, you have helping Mr Koon many time previously, kindly lend your good hand again to Mr Koon. Our society still need Mr Koon, a charity man and sponsor scholarship to those needed.

Dear OTB

Glad to hear you have busy time to buy more Jaks at current level. Perhaps you should advice too to MR Koon to take these opportunity to buy back Jaks instead of keeping Dayang. These is on the fact that Jaks will post increasing profit trend when power plant profit start recorded, whereas, Dayang will post decreasing profit trend as tumble crude oil already force oil company to scale back upstream capex significantly to conserve cash. Many of the oil service maintenance are on call out basis, once oil company cut capex, less service require from Dayang. The low oil price likely will persist for prolong time due to travel ban.

Lets turn to POSITIVE

Stay calm now, already fully invested. lets market readjust itself.

Jaks business is concession type of power generation in high growth Vietnam. Nothing wrong buy beaten down defensive business in time of bearish market.

These is last capital i have, all in jaks today.......

add more jaks at 77-78sen

sold back carimin at 52-52.5sen

add more at 50sen

bought back carimin at 50.5sen

Dear OTB

Thanks for your update with Jaks management. The Jaks power plant specification is higher than Hai Duong power plant even have higher spec than Vinh Tan 1. A suggestion to use the earning of Vinh Tan 1 to project the earning of Hai Duong power plant.


So, based on DK66 analysis on Vinh Tan 1 power current earning, the upcoming jaks profit is realistically materialize begin in next 1-2 month when IPP start COD.

Vinh Tan 1 is 55% owned by China Southern Power Grid. The PATNCI of China Southern Power Grid for 9 months ended 30th Sept 2019 was RMB 1,127m ( 9 months 2018 : RMB754m)

The PATNCI of China Southern Power Grid for 2018 which is attributable to Vinh Tan 1 was RMB56m

Calculation

Increase = RMB 1,127m - RMB 754m = RMB373m

Prorate to 12 Months = RMB373m/9 x 12 = RMB497m

Add 2018 PATNCI = RMB497m + RMB56m = RMB553m
100% Vinh Tan 1 PAT = RMB553 / 45% = RMB1,230m

At 7 USD/RMB Ex Rate = RMB1,230m / 7 = USD176m

At 4.2 USD/RM Ex Rate = USD176m x 4.2 = RM738m

Conclusion

Vinh Tan 1 has proven that power plants under BOT contracts in Vietnam are highly profitable.

For Jaks,

@30% sharing = RM221m = EPS RM 0.34

@40% sharing = RM295m = EPS RM 0.45

Hence, 10 times PE values Jaks between RM3.40 to RM4.50 and 15 times PE values Jaks between RM5.10 to RM6.75

bought bsck jsks at 90-90.5sen

cut naim at 67.5-68sen

cut carimin at 57-58

cut dayang at 1.21-1.23

cut 41-41.5sen

bought back naim at 72sen

bought back hibicus at 43.5sen

bought back carimin at 64-65sen