if his view of the macro economy has NEVER been right, why is he one of the richest guys in Malaysia but not you? haha.. no offense but we have to accept the fact that he definitely has his own insights that had made him one of the richest guys... right?

supersaiyan3, i have to agree with Tony... i do think that oil price will remain low at least for the next 5 years... it will hardly hit US$60/barrel in the next 5 years...

the current price is still so tempting but unfortunately I do not have any more bullets left... sigh...

bro dummy, partying is just a matter of time.. haha.. let's see..

haha... I agree with hng33, now the price is still stagnant bcoz of the profit-taking activities (especially from big guns like EPF)... once that is over, it will be on the uptrend ride...

cheers yeohhh... :)

you did the right thing hng33... where is the *like* icon to press?

Post removed.Why?

btw, I am still glad that I managed to buy AA at below 80sen and I am happy to still keep it until it releases its full value...

only speculators thought that export theme is over, but I do not foresee MYR will continue its appreciation strength in a long run... Oil price (even though has increased quite a bit from its lowest at around $27) is still soft and will drop back from current price due to oversupply vs demand... the recent oil price increase was due to speculation... and with soft oil price + tonnes of sickening corruption issues in the BolehLand, do you think MYR will further strengthen? I don't think so...
Another point to take note is that, if you compare 2015 Q1 & Q2 currency conversion rate : USD is still stronger now than what it was in 2015 Q1 & Q2... and that is why I believe export oriented companies will continue to perform this year and probably next few years...

I partially agreed with yeohhh... haha... I do not think export theme is over, but I do agree that it is wise to buy AA now...

familybusiness, short-term adjustment is normal... there are always profit-taking speculators and big sharks lurking in the deep blue sea (to push down the share price so that they can accumulate at a lower entry point)... there are just too many reasons for temporary volatility, but in a longer run, it is positive.. got what i mean?

what a bargain today...

I wish i had more cash now.... =.=''

today it seems like some big sharks are purposely pressing the price down so that they can accumulate HSL shares at lower entry point, before it explodes... so if you still have some cash money, maybe it is a good time today to go in...

Alfred, you should wait.. it has not fully reached its real worth yet...

and the latest financial status of HSL is still - "no borrowings" as stated in the above report...

AmWatch revised the TP from RM2.30 to RM2.80...

STOCK FOCUS OF THE DAY
Hock Seng Lee : High growth ahead after RM1.7bil highway package win BUY We maintain BUY on HSL, with a higher fair value at RM2.80/share (vs. RM2.30/share previously) – at an implied PE ratios of 15x and 12.6x for FY17F and FY18F (+3stdv and +1stdv on 3-year forward PE), respectively. The stock’s 3-year forward PE mean is at 12.3x (stdv@1.1x). This follows its winning a RM1.7bil works package (Package 7) of the Pan Borneo Highway, in a JV with Dhaya Maju Infrastructure (Asia) S/B. HSL holds 70% of the unincorporated JV. With an 800km-road building track record, we expect HSL to be the major contributor to the works. Coupled with the size of the 51-month job, we raised FY16F earnings by 5%, FY17F by 48% and FY18F by 38%. As it stands, we expect HSL’s earnings to peak in FY19F. We expect Package 7 to start in earnest only in 3Q as preparatory works would have to be done, and to go full throttle in FY16 until completion in 2020. With Package 7, HSL’s new order YTD comes up to ~RM2.5bil (vs. our previous assumption of RM1.1bil that had yet to incorporate Pan Borneo). This brings its outstanding order to RM2.7bil-RM2.8bil – a historical high and a new milestone for the group – and representing 4.3x-4.5x its FY15 construction turnover. We expect RM300mil more new jobs for the year and maintain our new order assumption at RM600mil each for FY17F and FY18F.
Earnings visibility is enhanced following the award last week of two mega projects, including the RM750mil 6-year Package 2 Kuching central wastewater management scheme. Over 80% of its earlier outstanding order book of RM600mil as at end Dec-2015 would be completed within FY16. With no borrowings, we continue to expect HSL to benefit from various other potential jobs within and outside of SCORE, as well as rural infrastructure development projects. Meanwhile, following Package 7, eight more packages worth a total of ~RM13bil under the Pan Borneo Highway project are left to be awarded. We continue to expect Cahya Mata Sarawak, Naim and KKB Engineering to be in the running to secure a package each.

wow... bro rocky has suddenly become so philosophical... i love that...

investors would wait until the share has reached its full value before they sell, speculators like EPF wouldn't.. and that explains... and again, I "put money in your pocket" again today by lecturing you (if you understand cantonese saying... haha)...

Mr Rookie, first of all, what you just asked was not even a logical query... that is because there is no direct relationship between "if outlook is so full of roses" and "why EPF run/sell?"... it is just like you are asking a goreng kaki why he is selling a share while it still has much room to grow... i can only think of one reason: profit-taking... that is what speculators would do...

it seems to us that EPF is not the one sabotaging, you are... haha...

welcome back Rocky... or perhaps we should call u rookie... is this the first time you have seen EPF selling a certain share? haha... EPF is just like a goreng-kaki type of speculator... they go in and out so frequently in any shares (not just HSL)... in other words, they are not even investing... they are just speculating...

I agree with Jupiter, Evergreen has been oversold by those speculators just because they thought USD has weakened... but they overlooked the fact that the current USD is still much stronger as compared to early 2015 while Evergreen was already making handsome profits... and do you think amidst scandals like the Saudi Arabia donations and other corruption issues in the BolehLand, and the low crude oil price (likely remain low for the next 5 years, at least, due to lower demand), Ringgit will be strong in 2016/17? I don't think so.. unless BN is gone in the next GE, there is a chance for RM to climb back to <RM4.00/USD1...

yes, HSL is a cash cow company...

RHB revised the TP to RM2.64...

http://research.osk188.com/report/17257/hock-seng-lee-winning-pan-borneo-highway-roadwork-package.html

21 MARCH 2016 08:27AM
Hock Seng Lee - Winning Pan Borneo Highway Roadwork Package
RECOMMENDED: BUY
TARGET PRICE: MYR 2.64
PRICE: MYR 2.10
HSL has secured a larger-than-expected MYR1.71bn roadwork package for the Pan Borneo Highway just a day after it won the MYR750m Kuching centralised sewerage contract. Maintain BUY with TP raised to MYR2.64 (from MYR2.54, 26% upside) after incorporating the higher contributions from this project. Meanwhile, both mega projects are expected to keep the company busy for next four to five years.

Reiterate BUY. Aside from its fruitful job wins, Hock Seng Lee (HSL) has been enjoying higher margins vis-à-vis its peers in West Malaysia, given the less intense competition from a smaller pool of contractors. Therefore, we reiterate BUY on HSL and raise our SOP-based TP to MYR2.64. We value its construction unit based on 12x FY17F P/E (in line with our 10-14x target 1-year forward P/Es for small- and mid-cap construction stocks). Separately, we value its property unit at a 35% discount to RNAV and add its net cash as at 31 Dec 2015.


A fruitful 2016. HSL announced its second major contract win in a week. Its 70%-owned consortium – Dhaya Maju Infrastructure (Asia) SB – was awarded a MYR1.71bn contract by Lebuhraya Borneo Utara SB for the development and upgrading of the proposed Pan Borneo Highway in the state of Sarawak (Phase 1) from Bintangor junction to Julau junction and from Sibu Airport to Sg Kua Bridge. The scope of works for this project includes earth works, piling, drainage works, road works, interchanges, bridges and its related mechanical and electrical works. The contract period is for 51 months.


Busy years ahead. HSL’s latest win of the Pan Borneo roadwork package was not a surprise. We had earlier anticipated the company to secure a slice of the action in this MYR16.1bn project, given its dominant position in the state’s construction sector. That said, the contract value is 41.5% larger than our original estimate of MYR1.2bn. However, we prefer to be prudent in assuming a net margin of 10% for this project, relatively lower than its historical net margin ranging from 11.6% to 15.5%. Coupled with the Kuching City Central Wastewater Management System (Package 2) project worth MYR750m, we believe both projects would keep the company busy for the next four to five years.


Forecasts and risks. Similar to the sewerage project, we expect the company to set up a new joint venture (JV) company to carry out works for this project. Pursuant to the FRS 11 accounting standard, we believe that contribution from this new JV would be equity accounted. Despite the revenue drop as both mega projects are expected to be equity accounted, we have raised our FY16 to FY18 earnings estimates by 0.6% to 6.9% respectively. A key downside risk is an escalation of input and labour costs that could crimp profitability.

in fact I am aiming at at least RM3.00... haha...

yes, LTA, u r right. the total Pan Borneo project is worth >16billion... so HSL will likely win more packages (not just the 1.7billion contract)... and SCORE projects are also fat meat to HSL...

haha.. ya, contrakaki, for PANSAR to boom is just a matter of time...

haha.. i like ur saying darkmagician... there are just too many negative ppl trying to push the share price down.. haha..

i think those are short-term speculators to take profit...

if you want to own more number of shares, you may consider PANSAR as well - the underdog for now but will definitely boom very soon...

and if u guys notice now that the big sharks are pressing PANSAR share price down... so that they can collect it before the good news are out...

yeah... u got it man darkmagician.. i wish i had more cash to buy more...

Positive surprise. HSL had been eying the Package 2 sewerage project for
some time. The latest award is a positive surprise given that HSL has a 75%
stake in the consortium, compared to only a 30% stake in Package 1, where its
involvement was mostly sub-contracting work.

Goodboy.. u r really a good boy... haha... yes, you are absolutely right!!!

bro ahdi, as i mentioned.. it can easily hit RM3.27 based on the new project wins... if more projects are awarded, dun be surprised that the EPS will increase and the share price will hit >RM4

which means for the EPS will increase more significantly vs the increase in revenue due to better profit margin... so my estimate of 21.82 sen may need to be revised to a higher number...

Better margins than previous package. To recap, HSL
was awarded Package 1 (RM452m) of the same wastewater
project back in Oct 2008 which was completed last year. The
difference this time around is that HSL is now undertaking
the main contractor role as opposed to a subcontractor
previously. As such, we opine that margins for this recent
package are likely to be higher than the previous one.

yes.. the Target Price will be revised by these stock analysts again, i think...

johnson, nekosan... u guys are smarter i would say.. haha... cheers.... i wish i have more cash now to buy more... haha...

u see what... i dun simply tell ppl to buy a share when i dun have confidence in it.. this all has a good fundamentals as a solid base... that is why I got irritated when ppl thought I am "digging" a hole and ask ppl to jump in...

and why dun u comment about the 2 new project wins now?? I thought you want me to give you some solid proof (and not dreams like you insulted me).. haha

btw, thanks for your blessings.. haha.. i thought u just said "bye"... why are u still here? haha...

rocky... i dun act cocky to everyone, ok... but when someone challenges me with lame reasons (with own agendas/purposes) while I am telling facts, I got irritated... so I am actually courteous to others who dun talk nonsense.. haha

i think the HL, CIMB, Maybank RHB analysts need to revise their reports again after the RM1.7 billion new award that just came in today, after they released their TP forecast yesterday... haha

haha..rocky... i dun see you being of any grace or humility.. you started the insults when we are all sharing thoughts and real facts.. pls dun pretend like you are such a noble person, ok.. i feel like vomitting, ok... haha.. anyway, bye...haha

we tell consistent things with facts, losers don;t.. see the difference? haha

haha... u all see how Rocky twisted his words so quickly.. after knowing that we provided facts that he cannot deny.. this is the character of a typical loser... haha...

let me share more facts and some simple maths calculation... HSL 2015 Revenue was RM654,736,000. EPS was 13.87.
The 1st project RM750million x 0.75 = RM562.50million over 6 years.. which means additional revenue of RM93.75million a year...
next, 2nd new project: RM 1,710,431,718 x 0.7 = RM1.1973Billion over 51 months = RM281.718million additional revenue per year...

so u add up these numbers:
2016 revenue will be roughly RM654.736+RM93.75+RM281.718million = RM1030.204million!!!
EPS is estimated to be 13.87sen / 654.736 * 1030.204 = 21.82 sen (up 57%)...

if PE is 15, the price will be RM3.27...
Do u think PE 15 is too high? think about it, what is the focus right now? Sarawak projects.. and more projects from Pan Borneo Phase 2, 3... etc.. and SCORE projects will come in... so dun be surprised the EPS will be more than 21.82 sen in 2016 if HSL win more projects...