just to point out some of the important points (in fine print) most people ignore.

1. most of the companies acquired are currently loss making (including those with on-going development projects), reasons unknown
2. RM4.2b GDV is misleading. 2 of the companies or about RM1.8b GDV is 45% associate stake and one of the plot is almost fully developed anyway. the rest is still not starting anytime soon.
3. same for land value, if excluding Plot A and take Plot B and Rawang at 45%, total market value is closer to RM550m
4. acquisition cost already exclude a compensation amount of RM40m which L&G has to bear in the future, so effective acquisition cost is more like RM380m instead of RM340m

not to say that the deal is not good, but just not as good as it seems on the surface once you dig into the details

if you pull out property companies annual report, there will be lots of undervalued land held at cost. nothing groundbreaking. no one is arguing that drb has good assets but the problem is market is discounting them because of poor execution. just like how some net cash companies trading at a discount.

final divided will go ex first. announcement said target completion by first half of 2016 but management mentioned will try to complete by 1Q. my estimate is submission by Dec, approval and circular by Jan/Feb, EGM by Feb/Mar, then it's just wrapping up some loose ends and choosing special dividend entitlement date, possibly by Mar/Apr

wow I din noticed it shot up so much. just sit tight and wait for it to fly. only be careful if one day the price exceeds your fair value. everything has a value and cannot defy laws of gravity. gadang is one good example

in life it's not so straightforward. you think it's cheap so you can buyout the other party but other party may not even want to entertain you. don't forget lim kang hoo is extremely well connected. if he needs money he could have got it from Sultan Johor, CREC etc. just see how he had got this far with these connections

there's no denying that cronies like Ekovest got a good deal but that doesn't mean that EPF is not getting one. just like those who bought Ekovest below RM1 got a good deal, if they sold their shares to others at RM2, doesn't automatically mean the new buyer got a bad deal. it's all about the value

but who will sell the 40% to EPF? the existing major shareholders knows the value they won't sell cheap. even if you somehow bought 40% of a listed company, you trigger MGO have to buyout the whole company then the management will leave just like SP Setia

let's not get overexcited, 10b is just a target. don't forget construction value all billions billions but margin is actually not very high

haha I know, but I can't help for some sarcasm because it's annoying for such a long unmeaningful clause taking up comment space

EPF should know Duke 1 IRR but Duke 2 is only about to be completed by end 2016. IRR projection % wise should be similar. but I belive EPF inserted all those clauses as a failsafe if for whatever reasons Duke couldn't deliver, then they can still get min IRR 10%, so they are really protecting us EPF savers

@chamlo what's the point of pasting the termination clauses? don't tell us you have never seen such standard clause in any M&As before. while you are at it, you should also paste clause 6.3 as well, another standard risk factor clause

nothing to watch, just people voting. polls will only close by tomorrow morning...

which is why if they spin off Duke in the future, it will release value as people have difficulties segregating all these segment when they are all mixed up together

PE is not high, it's extremely high if you strip out the revaluation gain. but why is it so high? because market gives a lot of value to Duke which is EBITDA and cashflow positive and has long concession period but not much contribution in terms of PAT at current stage, especially when Duke 2 will only start contributing early 2017.

So what is the PE excluding Duke? unfortunately I don't have the answer, because at last market cap of RM1.9b, it's still lower than EPF's valuation of Duke at RM2.8b. so excluding Duke you are actually getting the rest of Ekovest for free

@Flintstones why don't you enlighten me then? it would be better to show your calculations than condescendingly assume that people don't understand IRR
IRR is the discount rate to get at least 0 NPV, so 1.13bn x (1.10^5) = 1.82b, effectively valuing the 100% at RM4.55b (assuming no dividend was paid to EPD during these 5 years).

with these good news, market simply can't ignore by tomorrow opening. only if trump get elected can pause the momentum

if you read the announcement carefully, it's one of the best drafted ones, EPF really go all out to protect our money.

Here are some takeaways:

1) Kesturi will be listed or sold by 5 years from completion date, if not realised by then, it will be automatically extended by 2 years
2) EPF wants target IRR of 11.5%, if achieved, Ekovest can keep the RM149m with interest, below that Ekovest has to payback the RM149m with interest
3) EPF wants minimum IRR of 10%, if fail to do so, Ekovest has to pay the difference
4) if by 7th year Kesturi is still not sold or listed, Ekovest has to grant EPF a put option to sell back the shares to Ekovest and get min 10% IRR. if Ekovest fails to honour the put option exercised, Ekovest will grant EPF the option to buyout the remaining 60% at a price to be valued independently

5) No gain on disposal as Kesturi still consolidated but NA enhanced
6) Warrant price will be adjusted

If you take RM1.13b and ignoring any dividend paid during the years,

By 5th year
IRR 10% = RM1.82b (40%) or RM4.55b (100%)
IRR 11.5% = RM1.90b (40%) or RM4.76b (100%)

By 7th year
IRR 10% = RM2.20b (40%) or RM5.51b (100%)
IRR 11.5% = RM2.35b (40%) or RM5.87b (100%)

So if all things go to plan, Ekovest's 60% stake alone after 5 years at 10% and 11.5% IRR will be RM2.73b or RM2.86b.

only new contract is good for warrant, dividend is not. but if mother go up too much then warrant may follow a bit as well

turns out my estimation 25c is correct, all good news released together price is going to go ballistic tomorrow

don't forget new contract RM157m
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5254009

SOP land deal and Puncak land deal is from same shareholder, Shin Yang.

we laugh at US but look at our own country, BN and Pakatan, it's not that different either

i think it's not 28c. probably 25c cos usually corporate announcements have to take into account warrants. warrant holders can exercise any time so they have to be prepared. if by diluted shares it will be closer to 25c. any leftover funds will go to working capital. logically I would draft like that...

it will be a volatile market tomorrow morning. i saw a lot of brokers floating around some timetable but most didn't take into account daylight savings. guess many local brokers don't follow US market close enough

if i remember correctly, obama in 2012 only won 53% of popular votes but in the end has over 60% of the electoral votes. that's the thing people need to differentiate between the electoral college system and popular votes

funny they announced over the news first before bursa website. but that's the beauty of suspension, you can announce anytime of the day and over other medium as long as you announce through Bursa before lifting of suspension

moving forward, all their debts which are not linked to highways would be cleared. the debts left will be RM1.7b with Kesturi and new debts raised for SPE construction

Q1 is possible. announcement by today, submit application by Dec, circular by Jan, EGM by Feb and completion by March. those who want dividend have to be patient, it won't come so soon

just be patient, it's suspended anyway. and confirmed highway listing not in the near future, maybe few years down the road

if you read some websites, there're some interesting findings whereby white people now only consists of less than half of US population, others are blacks, Hispanic, Latino, Asian etc. So Trump may be right in saying that immigrants have flooded US, but he may not realised that these immigrants now consists of more than half of US voting population. And it is also surprising to see the % of US people who doesn't have a college degree or even finish high school. never thought it would be so high for a developed nation. If not, Trump wouldn't have come so far

Clinton is no angel. this year's election both candidates' quality are so low in the eyes of American people. In any other years, Clinton or Trump's opponents would have won the election by now by a huge margin. But many are realising that democracy sometimes is choosing of the least evil

have this timetable take into account daylight savings?

dividend much better than expected. tomorrow could explode if clinton elected

越来越觉得纯粹是在骗稿费

I do agree that some of his 30 stocks picks are quite risky. I'm not sure if its just me, but I feel that some of his recommendations are more aggressive than I know him to be

I never really followed coldeye but sometimes when the stocks that I buy if I see his name then it would be an extra comfort. I don't think he's trying to con your money, that guy's a journalist turned multi-millionaire because of investing and he has a reputation. older guys who are already rich usually craves legacy more than money.

do your own simulation of how much eps they can make next year. PE is a bit subjective so don't be too aggressive. lower eps yoy doesn't mean it's end of the world, if price fell too hard it could be a good buy for the future.

I already highlighted back in Sept of future earnings risk and the usual gimmick where most counters price have peaked when bonus or share split is announced. well I was bashed then with no valid counter-arguments by my critics, seems like time is my best corroborator...

insas crown jewel is inari. it's a deep value counter but other operations are not doing well. strip out gain on disposal of inari, the group barely breakeven

unfortunately SPE construction works cannot wait, so the equity injection is necessary now. any listing ideally should be done when it's achieve certain traffic volume to get good valuations. highways are not great growth stocks so no point listing based on growth prospects. my guess is at least 3 years down the road when Duke 2 is also EBITDA positive. then maybe earliest listing by 2020. SPE can be injected later maybe after 2022

EPF deal will be announced by 8 Nov so suspension is to prevent speculation before that, nothing to do with toll rates. Duke toll rates are scheduled to increase on 2018, even if not increased, government will pay compensation. in any case rakyat will suffer and toll concessionaire will benefit

just look at how much warrants listed you will know how much eligible shares are there bcos it's 1 for 1 free warrant, so 1b warrants means 1b shares.

minorities shareholders who vote NO will be protected by cashing out. but those minorities that voted YES will be stuck with this management and the subsequent hanky pankies

I'm guessing the management will ask MTD next week to go sapu more shares from yield investors at 76c. to do that, MTD probably will ask for more goodies like the placement which the management has no bargaining power to reject. so the major shareholders will benefit more while minorities who stay will suffer

people often think that MBSB is still strong on civil servant segment. for the past 2 years they have been diverting to corporate loan which carries lower risk but also much lower interest rate. that's why their income ex-provision has been trending down for the past 2 years. many supporters always blame high provisions for the lower profit but didn't realise that excluding provision, the profit is also on a downtrend.

I was wondering why MBSB is scaling down on civil servants while others like Aeon and RCE is still going ahead. Talking to industry people will give you insights to those horror stories that MBSB has done over the years. that's why they can screw up in a supposedly stable segment. I'm afraid their current management is just not cut out for credit biz. just management quality alone I would choose Aeon and RCE anytime over MBSB

some stocks I can never imagine them associated with 冷眼. some really dodgy management in that list...

MRT Corp did mention before they will try to award new contracts to those who are involved in MRT 1 but no guarantees. you know how m'sia contracts go around. but I think gadang should be able to get at least one package. the more worrying part would be slowdown in earnings from property division due to lack of new major projects. construction may not be sufficient to fill the gap.

in between the dry period when property earnings decline and before new construction earnings kick-in would really test shareholders' patience

just look at the yoy growth, you would see why now MBSB is suffering from its previous years of over-expansion. bank islam also grew fast but in absolute terms it's much smaller as it came from lower base.

unlike other industries, for credit biz, high growth doesn't necessarily mean it's a good thing

those are good questions to ask but just too convoluted in presentation. essentially, it's asking the 5 questions. it would be easier to the eyes and thought process if you lay it out in horizontal or vertical presentation. if yes then proceed right or down to the next question, if no then chuck it to the bottom or the side (don't buy)

or alternatively if you prefer thinking in circles, it is also possible.

decision tree is supposed to be as simple as possible. this could be a reflection of your current state of mind. my suggestion is don't overcomplicate things when it can be straightforward. many great minds often opt for complex solutions and get confused when there's more logical and intuitive alternatives.

hope this helps...

75% is to protect minority, just like 90% for compulsory takeover

SPAC is a peculiar structure. logic would tell us that it's not easy to get good assets at bargain price. it not just involve management skills but also dealing and bargaining skills but all would not matter if no opportunities are available

reach management thinks it is a great QA as oil price will rebound. but what if oil price remain around this level for the next few years, would it still be a great buy? no one knows the future so no one can answer. what we do know that they have huge number of diluting warrants which doesn't help

remember the old times when Cliq and Sona traded above their cash value. there's no issue of yield investors, simply because there's no arbitrage opportunities. the fact that market values these SPACs so lowly is a reflection of market's loss in confidence of the SPAC structure

ideally for a SPAC to be successful is to be involved in biz which needs little capital and can generate extremely high margins and returns. but if that's the case, they wouldn't have gone for listing in the first place. there's a reason why SPAC didn't kick off in many countries, just hope our SC can learn from this before introducing all those fancy schemes...

of course it's possible for EPF to cancel. but they have come this far so it's more likely to be signing rather than cancelling the deal. while you like to speculate on black swans, why don't you speculate tonight whole world turn into bear market? it's about odds, probabilities and logic. no one can be absolutely certain of everything. if you go around singing doomsday on every stock, chances are some you will get right. but if your thought process is flawed, then the end results doesn't make you right

coldeye was top 30 shareholders in Gadang back when it was below 1.00. he's still laughing all the way to the bank at today's price. so when did Lim Pei Thiam bought DRB shares? when the price was sky high?

through my comments you would know that I am actually bearish on gadang since it soared too high. so I'm just purely commenting objectively.

calvin does share some interesting ideas at time but sometimes the way he supports his stock picks are just ridiculous. no need to hard sell. and with scattergun approach, there are bound to be stocks that earn a lot...so it would be much better if the stock picks are put into the simulated portfolio on i3, after some time readers will know exactly how they have performed on a holistic basis. instead of spending time to convince naysayers

reach issued 1bn new shares during IPO, these shares are the one eligible to vote. so if 208m voted no, then they need at least 624m out of the remaining 792m to vote yes, not an easy task especially considering some people just don't bother voting in person or proxy