problem with steel counters is that the investors' confidence in them is very low due to previous prolonged bad track record. this quarter's results mostly below expectations after the previous 2 quarters, most management also highlighted some downside risks in their prospects, so a lot of investors rather just lock in profit. which is also why steel counters are unlikely to command decent PE

if you look at that analyst, his strategy is always to call a sky high target price on many counters, then if one indeed happen he will use that to promote himself. can't argue with that strategy but makes you doubt his actual ability

it's on front page of starbiz today, authorities will look stupid if they don't do anything

very very poor report. some stocks even they themselves also not convinced

or maybe it was not preliminary? after so many people threatening to lodge complaints, the company may have revised the figures down a bit and then put it back in 4Q so to make it less obvious

anyway, good job exposing this sham counter and analyst

yoy profit improved because it bought over Neata but EPS was down yoy because of dilution of new shares. for individual shareholder, what you should be concern about is EPS not absolute net profit

wow, this is really one of the most optimistic page I have been. bad results everyone still so happy. today market selldown because CIMB say it's RM13m net profit, now actually turns out is RM12m, so you think tomorrow will go up?

made an error previously. fully diluted shares should be more than 4b, so diluted EPS revised down. for 2016 I also adjusted margins to be higher than 15% as first half margins were relatively high. all in, the analysis shows that vivo's FV shd b even lower than previously estimated

current orderbook will last them little over a year. now the fear is the reason behind the termination and will it affect new contracts win in the future. it is very rare contractor gets terminated especially in such big profile job

net profit excluding one-off items still weak. some group of people just bid up the price in the morning intentionally or unintentionally (maybe misread the QR)

Link to SC
https://www.sc.com.my/lodge-complaints-2/captmarket/

complain to SC more effective, bursa a bit soft

ekovest is also taking a break. wait till nearer to EGM to start engine again

company was wrong to share the results with CIMB and CIMB is wrong for acting on it. both are wrong in this case.

cimb really screw up big time this round with the leak. shows you how buddy cimb and vivo are. don't trust the lies spewed by CIMB with the bloated orderbook and unrealistic projections. I already debunked them in my earlier article, if you still believe CIMB's projections then it's really your own problem

profit from gain on disposal (18m) and deferred tax (6m) offset by impairment (9m), makes up their entire quarter profit

even if amount not big, market will worry about what it means to their prospects of securing future contracts, that's a huge taint in their reputation

dividend is good but don't overestimate its effect. after price goes ex, opening price will be adjusted by the same amount to reflect the return of cash to shareholders. u can't have the pie and eat it at the same time.

WB is high risk high reward. when mother price drops, WB also drop more in %, vice versa. nandwarrant premium never stay constant, so be sure you are comfortable with the current premium because the longer you hold, theoretically the premium will shrink over time and eat into WB price

it's better if the mgmt clarify how much have they recognised on capital city. gadang's profit for the past years have been supported by increasing property earnings when the property market is slowing down. so imo i find it quite hard to believe they only recognised 12%. gadang's own property arm is not that strong...

doubt that SC that can do anything. firstly, the accounting treatment is not wrong. even if it's wrong, it's auditor's job to correct them, not SC. secondly, the plantation deal as long as shareholders approve it, no one can say anything. shareholders' approval itself is already the safeguarding provision

friday seems to hit quite high volume, so likely not only retailers selling

LTH, at least in the past few years, doesn't seem to have a good reputation. I have met quite some people now who treat them as 明灯. in cantonese, that means when they buy/sell, you just go the opposite direction

rule is dead but people should be flexible. if the company did exceptionally well in one quarter, the next quarter or the quarter next year would be difficult to top that.
personally I think the rule is effective when for short term trade when you are trying to ride high on a momentum where any hint of bad news could hurt the momentum and you would need to hold the shares longer than you are prepared for

and lastly my apologies to any people here who had done your own research on pesona and had already factored in those things that I had pointed out, sorry for annoying you again with the things that you had already considered. good luck and all the best

last comment before I leave this page to you guys (since you do not like opposite views)

1. I have been monitoring pesona since the change of management. the issue was never about securing orders but to make good profit out of it. based on the orderbook they had last year, I thought this year would be their breakout year. so was waiting for the signal if their revenue soar and margins improve. but somehow the price did breakout but the revenue and profit margin did not improve as much as expected. it's already 3 quarters of the year and still waiting

2. when a company has a history of low margins, you can either choose to i) assume that margins will remain low, and hope that it will improve or ii) assume that margins will improve and it will not disappoint. both approaches are not wrong just that I prefer (i) so to give yourself a margin of safety

3. no company is perfect. every company has its flaws. if you are aware of the flaws of the company you invested in, then good. but if you choose to turn a blind eye, then you could be in for negative surprises in the future

4. yes i did not buy pesona because the signals never came. but i never said a word when the price surged, did i? it's only till it hit 60c when I warned that this counter could have become overheated when the price ran ahead of its fundamentals. same thing when I warned about gadang when it was close to RM3. could you have made money with gadang when it went up to RM3.30? of course, but facts remain facts. all i hope was that someone who read my comments could stop, think and do further research of their own to determine if what I said has a point or just pure gibberish

overall like I said, pesona is a counter with potential but has yet to really proved itself. i also never said that it is a bad company, just saying that everything has a price, and at current price people are paying huge premium for potential. anyway everyone has their own investing style and as long as it makes you money, then it suits you.

if again you are unhappy or offended by my comments, you are welcomed to bring out counter-arguments based on your own research. instead of cowering behind your imaginary friend...

it's a disappointing quarter actually

1. revenue increase still lower than expected. based on contracts won last year, this year's revenue ytd should have been higher, yet it doesn't seem to happen

2. margins remained depressing. seems like previous quarter slight improvement was mainly due to the project interest financing charged.

still don't quite get this company. based on the orderbook, they should have done very well but revenue delays and low margins continue to drag their profit growth. the market cap is already RM370m, if they don't start delivering stronger revenue and profit growth, price could be bound for correction

if Ekovest continue to grow profit for the coming quarters, they can also enjoy a lower tax rate under budget 2017

monday is more likely to go up than down. market looks at core profit instead of revaluation, forex etc. so qoq, yoy this quarter is much better. the past week selldown is more like flushing out the short term players

sell, u know why my harsh comments on you? it's because what you said has no basis and you are not interested in genuine discussions. everything I said in this forum I did my homework, be it highlighting positives or negatives of a company, and I'm ready to change my opinion if there's a good counter-argument or points that I missed out. while you are only interested in harassing people to show their transactions, diverting attention from your previous naive comments

haven't look in detail, but numbers look very good.

some kindergarden math above just make me laugh, I don't even want to point out the stupidity of the comments

agree. q2 shows cumulative PBT when q1 shows PAT, then q3 switch back to cumulative PAT, so you can't accurately breakdown q2 by segment. no point cracking your head, nothing you could do about it

be careful, opec meeting just around the corner. if nothing significant materialise, oil price may retreat and affect sentiment on E&P companies

RM80m is definitely misleading, tax credit is not real income. if you take PBT, that's RM7.5m. It's not very good quality earnings, considering that there's unrealised forex gain of RM11.1m and reversal of impairment of RM1.8m, so core net profit is still negative. but at least it's better than previous few quarters

wow just noticed puncak price tanked while triplc price soared. is that a sign of good deal for triplc?

seems like sell is true to his/her name, going all around forum asking to sell everything, with or without basis. moneysifu just ignore him/her, some people just like to stir things up and make ridiculous demands without doing anything themselves. these people are better served joining red shirts rally with jamal their shining example

puncak has huge cashpile after water asset sale, however market doesn't think that they are going to spend it wisely, which on hindsight may be true. Triplc was a complicated concession biz, not many people would have paid attention to it. I also only noticed it after the first HOA

some funds who are only allowed to hold syariah compliant securities have to dispose within a time limit

it's funny how in less than 2 weeks time, the mood change from being excited about the long term plan and future of the company to become panicky over one quarter's result. Duke and the cars won't just disappear overnight, construction and property projects are still ongoing, even if certain quarters revenue and profit recognition may be lower due to recognition timing, over a few quarters it will even it out by itself. the company's short to medium term future is already secured so why worry over a result that hasn't been released yet

at least can sustain them until the plantation start contributing

seems like there are a lot of short term players betting on higher qoq profit after kianjoo result, so sold after it didn't happen

for your reference
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/04/23/banks-prepare-for-new-standard/

btw, 30-300% is just my friend's estimate for those least risky to those most risky. and it is also relative to the companies' current provisioning level
so doesn't mean MBSB provision will increase further 300% from current level. but in general, all financial lending companies are expected to be hit

For IFRS 9, details you can google it up, but the crux of it is the change of method in recognising provision/impairment.
now IAS 39 is based on incurred loss method, IFRS 9 is expected loss model.

The effects of the new standards basically are
1. Earlier recognition of impairment based on expected loss
2. For those impaired, provision based on lifetime instead of 12 months' expected credit losses

so impaired loans are expected to go up, and for every $ impaired loans, companies need to make more provision under the new standards.

I'm no longer in the industry but I still have friends working in Big 4 who are advising the banks now to prep for IFRS 9. according to them, the new standards are expected to amplify the difference between good and bad lenders. Banks like Public, Hong Leong which has cleaner books are likely to be least affected while unsecured lenders like Aeon, RCE, MBSB will be hit the hardest because most of their loans are personal loans without collateral and are considered most vulnerable.

what is good about this quarter is only when you compared to worse quarters.

I followed MBSB on and off over the years so I'll just break it down for the sake of those who are new to this company

1. gross impaired loans ratio still close to record high levels at 7.7% (worse than RCE or AeonCredit, miles behind Malaysia banks average of 1.6%)
2. profitability excluding impairment still worse off compared to 2013 and 2014 quarters even after 2 rights issue
3. management mentioned in press release that they will shift more towards corporate away from retail (government servant) from current 19:81 ratio to target 30:70. corporates have lower bad loans but carry much lower interest margin, so profitability for every $ loan will further shrink
4. ROE at 4% is miles behind any banks or peers (bank average 10%, RCE 15%, Aeon 25%)
5. impairment program will only end at Dec-2017, at least 12 months away
6. impending implementation of IFRS 9, provision to spike again

personally I think the current management simply doesn't know how to manage the biz. 3 rights issue, 2011 RM500m, 2014 RM1.4b, 2016 RM1.7b total RM3.6b in 5 years. So their current RM5.5b market cap, 65% are from rights issue. This haven't include the initial IPO and all the dividend reinvestment plans. They essentially build the company by taking money from shareholders rather than generating returns.

besides for those who care about management quality should go talk to credit officers or credit collection agencies. some of them even if MBSB is their customer (MBSB hire them for certain processes) but they can still tell you all about MBSB horror stories. basically it has a very bad reputation in the industry.

Impairment program will end at Dec-17, which is immediately followed by implementation of IFRS 9.
Accounting firms who are running the IFRS 9 sensitivity for the banks are now saying that banks and financial lenders' provisions/impairments cost is expected to increase by 30-300% from current level. so good luck for those hoping for a swift rebound in MBSB profit after 2017.

btw, if we look at profit excluding impairment (since people always blame impairment), it is around RM280m this quarter, which improved qoq and yoy.
but if you look at a longer trend, average profit ex impairment for 2013 was RM300m, the highest quarter was actually in 4Q13 which was around RM340m.
which means after 2 massive rights issue in the last 3 years (2014 & 2016), profitability actually still declined. it's classic value destrucion by the current management!
the problem runs deeper than impairment. don't be surprised when IFRS 9 become effective in 2018, management come asking for rights issue again

QR was bad and will probably remain bad until SKIN starts.

I think PurplePain just cannot/refuse to grasp some accounting concepts. revenue recognition is based on probable concept. as long as it more likely than not that economic benefits will come in, you recognise. if subsequently you discover it is no longer probable, you write off/down the receivables. two events cannot be mixed as one. accounting standards were set for a reason to avoid inconsistencies and lay out the best practices.

one just need to study IAS 18 revenue, IAS 11 Construction and IFRIC 12 Service concession to understand these instead of relying on his/her own personal views which are not in line with the standards that are currently in force

don't get all the pessimism, let's just put figures to get a clearer picture

Can-One v Johotin
Trailing 4Q profit: RM75.5m vs RM28m
Annualised last q: RM94.6 vs RM43.1m
Market cap: RM718m vs RM313m

One quarter sometimes have a lot of noise, so let's say we use 4Q.

we know KJ was hit by forex, last 4q total around RM22.3m, impact on Can-One is around 33% or RM7.4m while Can-One has forex gain of 2m so Can-One adjusted 4Q is RM80.9m. Johotin in the same period was forex gain of RM2.3m so adjusted 4Q is RM25.7m.

so basically the adjusted trailing 4Q PE of Can-One is 8.9 times vs Johotin 12.1 times
Even if we just take last q annualised without adj PE is 7.6 times vs 7.3 times

current share price even after slight increase for the past week doesn't seem overpriced but like I said, it's a decent quarter but not the greatest can-one had.

hope this will put things into context.

decent, but not great

johotin food division PBT and margin did decrease this quarter compared to last q cushioned by some forex gain. but kian joo will contribute additional RM3.5m this quarter so it may be enough to offset any decrease

i'm expecting earliest construction is early next year to coincide with the financing they will get from the sukuk. so Feb 2017 quarter may be too early, expect contribution to really start to show in May 2017 quarter. soon but not too soon. before that maybe the Puncak deal would have been finalised

good article. but a bit difficult to read in chinese with the crude translation

for biz like construction, indeed you need practical hands on management instead of those who just talks concept. but in Msia, connection is still important to get contracts