like i said previously, there's nothing sinister to extend the deadline by 3 working days. lot of parties involved, so sometimes just last min stuck with internal compliance procedures.

anyway,, the coming announcement will have all the details including potential dividend, financial effects, timeline, salient terms etc. hope it's good news

the company seems to be good in securing contracts but the extremely low profit margin is a persistent problem. net margin hovers around 3-4.5%, even lower than those mega infra projects, I wonder where all the costs go to...

imo listing is very possible down the road (only question is when) because it is a distinct biz and it actually drags down the group earnings profile and balance sheet on paper as investors have difficulties in seeing through their high debts. spin off would unlock value. if listing happens, EPF will ensure the valuation is higher than the RM2.8b they valued...

Duke is cashflow positive and has just started churning profit. let Duke 2 ramp up volume first and 2018 toll hike kick in before consider listing. that would better maximise shareholders' value

from my experience, it's not possible. 1-8 prospectus draft already out so highly likely but 9 onwards (except ecoworld) are all pure speculation. even looking at the list and timeline itself is illogical, those who want to list by 1H 2017 will probably need to at least clear exposure draft by now, none of them have.

SC can have an indication of who wants to get listed because usually IBs will consult them at the early stage but listing details especially date are mostly unknown and floating. listing is more concrete when they actually submit their application to SC which they won't do it 2-3 years earlier.

anyway if Ekovest wants to list its highway assets, they will need to get shareholders' approval first. fyi from proposal stage to listing easily will take 8-12 months

I'm not so pessimistic on the announcement. from 3 to 8 Nov is just 3 working days delay. This could easily happen when paperwork haven't finalised last minute or sometimes board of directors not around to approve etc.. besides, if you remember the Sept announcement, it was a binding term sheet. EPF had done a round of due diligence before signing the binding term sheet and agreed the price. so this 3 days delay is probably just to wrap up loose ends.


that said, EPF won't pay 1.1b immediately, it's subject to terms met. immediate payment is RM921m. actually I don't think they are going to pay off much of the borrowings since they are still busy on the construction and property front. dividend probably won't be too much either, maybe around RM100m, or 10-11c. This should be enough to satisfy most shareholders without pissing off the creditors

lol, if they really push price up to 80c, of course you sell. vote no also at best 76c, who cares if QA successful or not.

if 34% will vote yes based on news, reach will need another 26% to squeeze through the 75% hurdle (60/80). Still challenging and a very close call, but much better chances than Sona who was so arrogant to assume that shareholders will vote yes

another misleading analyst report. Kenanga analyst gives 89c target price based on the independent expert valuation in circular. Kenanga takes USD511m to divide by diluted shares but in the circular, the independent expert already stated that bcos the deal is in Kazakhstan, discount rate shd be higher to take into account country risk as well as the current market condition, so NPV fair valuation should be USD315-USD412m. So taking into account warrants and PP, fair value is around 56-73c. another analyst report that simply provide misleading info while company announcements or circulars say otherwise

those new to this thread can refer to my articles (Part 1 will be sufficient for an understanding)

unlikely to have a need for rights issue. Duke 3 will be mainly funded by borrowings, other equity funding would be sufficient once the EPF deal is completed

shouldn't be. what ekovest will earn will depend on their final cost and selling price. the RM130m I don't think ekovest get to keep, it sounds like the fund to facilitate investments so probably ekovest will represent the govt to distribute to investee that fits the criteria. but the money was from govt anyway so worse case also won't cost ekovest a single penny

property development usually has quite fat margin, probably 15-25%. the only concern is how long it needs to sell in this current soft market. service apartments may not be easy to sell...but if for longer term, then should be fine

thanks for going on the ground to take and share these photos. but one crucial thing to note is gadang is only providing the land. costs will be fully borne by Hatten and Gadang will get a share of the GDV. So the risk is much lesser for them. Usually for Hatten projects, I noticed they like to sell the units and provide a guaranteed rental scheme (for 1-2 years). so chances are the units were already snapped up by investors who thought they can get rental yields.

but of course I could be wrong. maybe they have difficulties selling the units then selling price and GDV will need to be slashed. then only that would be negative for Gadang

@CKNYAM the one who misleads trying to accuse others or misleading
I have noticed that you have been trolling a lot of pages in this forum hard-selling vivo based on your "orderbook" so if you are butt-hurt by the facts presented, it's your problem.

1. Please understand what is orderbook. Orderbook is CONFIRMED orders with contractual obligations if one party backs out. When your list has HOA, automatically your RM3bil figures has no credibility

2. Read the HOAs, it's not that long. Like what I highlighted in the article, most of them have deadlines, if deadline has passed, no announcement of contract and no announcement of extension, what do you expect? If it's still on, then Vivo is in violation of listing requirements for not making timely announcement

Let me dumb it down for the likes of you:
If a company wants to hire you and say let's discuss our terms and by end of the month, we shall finalise and sign an employment contract. If not, you are not obligated to work and I am not obligated to pay you. After end of the month, no contract was offered. Are you hired? Will you report to work?

3. Yes I'm not a shareholder and I don't bother to call them. Why? From my experience dealing with corporate figures, many people can say many things. But when you ask them to commit in writing, they will change tune or chicken out.

Why don't you request your company to commit themselves in the next QR to state what is their orderbook? Not orderbook+HOA, JUST orderbook.

4. CRCC links have been explained in the article. If you choose to believe that CRCC will subcontract to Vivo to sub-sub-contract, that's your own choice.

Bottom line,
- If you can't even tell contract from HOA, or orderbook from tenderbook, you are not even qualified to talk about this stock
- It's one thing to plead ignorance when you troll i3 with your "orderbook" but if by now you can already tell the difference, you still continue to troll the forum with the same lousy list, then your intentions are very clear
- Like I mentioned in my last article on MBSB, if you want to argue based on technical charts, rumours etc. go ahead. If you want to challenge my facts or arguments, please show your side of facts and arguments. Don't go whining "you are wrong, I'm right" like kindergarten kids

To other readers, if you notice @CKNYAM trolling other pages again to promote Vivo, feel free to post my comment here or even links to this article. Let the readers decide and prevent people from falling into traps set by irresponsible characters posting inaccurate facts

most of the HOAs have expired, so I think it's better to look forward to other new contracts. the fair price will only last for 2016, which is coming to an end. 2017 onwards are not secured yet. they need to keep winning contracts, if not the profit will start to drop from next year. if market price is close to fair price that means there's no margin of safety. many things can go wrong for any company, not getting new revenue, delay in projects, margin compression etc. which is why it's best to avoid company with no margin of safety

mr khoo seems to have been disposing since June so it's not news. but seems like he recently dispose more on warrants. could it be a sign of special dividend (warrant value will drop if dividend declared)?

don't waste my effort in putting up the lists. even after nicely put in table the date of announcement also can miss then you can blame no one but yourself...

when there were almost daily article keep asking if Gadang is still a gem when it breaks new high, I already warned of future profits could disappoint. it's simple, no replenishment of orderbook and property profit largely depends on capital city. and usually when price at record high and company announces bonus issue/warrant/share split, usually it's close to the final push.

but for gadang, the final push was the kwasa land deal when price shot up from RM2.80 to RM3.30. it was a prime land no doubt but large scale property development (for gadang's size) at this market is going to be challenging yet the price shot up like tomorrow. on hindsight, the push seems to be more for big players to clear stock

of course everyone can have different approach. some prefer companies which they think have good prospects which market cannot accurately capture now. such approach usually carries high risk high return

the uptrend is damaged now. the only possible short term catalyst is if they win some big construction package. coming QRs could still surprise on the downside

but still better to follow your own investment strategy, not judging

this company usually has low liquidity, so only sell if you really want to. not advisable to try selling high and collect low

looks like short tem is going to be under selling pressure. even if rebound after sharp drop, better don't catch it. a stock is not automatically cheap just because its price dropped significantly

is EPF overpaying?

if you read my previous comments, I am sceptical of the timing of the sales but the purchase price doesn't seem overly expensive. Based on news, tolls are usually acquired at 20x EV/EBITDA.

Duke has borrowings of ~RM1.7b, EPF paying RM1.1b for 40% or equity valuation of RM2.8b so total EV 1.7&+2.8=RM4.5b. If 20x EV/EBITDA, Duke I and II should generate EBITDA of ~RM225m.

For Duke I, FYE 30 June 2016 EBIT was RM104m, 2015 was RM75m, if add back depreciation should be higher and is growing. Once Duke II completed by year end, EBITDA will go up further. Remember RM225m should be at mature stage which is not now.

Another point to note is that previous highway acquisitions mostly has concession period up till 2030-2040 or remaining period of 30-40 years. For Duke, concession is up till 2069 or another 52 years. the extra period would increase DCF valuation and increase implied EV/EBITDA.

so bottom line, it is still possible that EPF is overpaying but most likely not by much.

just my opinion, I think Ekovest will stay hot at least until the whole EPF deal is sewn up and potential dividend paid. after that I'm not sure, but there's definitely value in this counter

that's the risk of low orderbook. but I think market is expecting players like Gadang who have won previous MRT contract to get at least some packages from all the infra project that will flow around. actually the bigger earnings risk is from property segment. once capital city completed (guaranteed by Hatten), property won't be easy to sell at this soft market

thanks for producing such infographics to educate investors. but may I suggest to be more complete when presenting. e.g. PN17 has 6 criterias, hit any 1 of it would have been classified as PN17

ultimate loser is consumer. but can can-one successfully pass through the cost without hurting their volumes will remain to be seen. long term higher chance, short term not sure

Puncak has cash of RM1.2bn. They are spending 260m on plantation for future revenue and profit, which they can use similar amount and get immediate revenue and profit from phase 3 contract and immediate net cashflow from phase 2 contract. appreciate you guys stopping by but it would be better to skim past just the surface when analysing info

phase 2 is now cashflow based, major profit recognition phase over. phase 3 haven't started. please read through part 1-3 to get a better idea

1. unbilled sales is like what moneysifu highlighted, not what's stated in the article.
2. gadang's property division has been the biggest profit contributor for some quarters already in case you didn't notice, which is why the market gives it low PE
3. gadang's contruction orderbook is really thin is a fact, if they can get some contract from upcoming infra contracts, then 1 big contract may be enough to last another 1-2 years. but if they don't then they are really screwed.
4. property profit is definitely coming from capital city, if not they won't be able to increase revenue and profit when everyone else's revenue are dropping. remember, gadang is not ecoworld. and capital city contribution will not last forever.

bottom line, gadang is a good company but future profits are clouded with uncertainty. so whether the current price is still cheap and how much upside is left will be up to your judgment

if indeed it's like what Sarawak report highlighted few months back, then our country is really screwed. compared to other railways, construction cost for similar length at most is RM20-30bn. why it needs RM55bn and to get China financing is really fishy...

I hope that everyone can keep their comments here civilised. don't simply accuse companies of fake contracts or con counter unless you can show evidence. if it's just your suspicion, please keep it to yourself. facts will prevail, so just stick to facts will do. thanks..

no problem. thanks for all constructive comments. I know my approach may not to be everyone's liking but I believe that company AS IT IS, should have greater value than its market cap, without needing to look into crystal ball for the future. that would give you margin of safety at least when the "prospects" never materialise

another thing that makes me uncomfortable is that all the analysts covering this stock seems to be making wildly guesses. First CIMB assumes FY17 revenue of RM3bn (which if average construction period is 2 year, company has to win >RM6bn contracts!?). Next if you look at MIDF, TP 63 sen based on 13x FY17EPS which in the report FY17 is 4c. 13 x 4 = 63? and the 4c is derived from net profit of RM111m, which is an eps of 3.2/3.4c depending if you use current share base or expanded share base. it would be unfair to blame the company on outsiders' incompetence, but from my experience, when analyst simply write usually someone paid them to...

for 15 Jan announcement, there's another follow up announcement on 19 Jan

The feasibility and due diligence study is expected to be completed within the next six (6) months. Thereupon, the definitive agreements are expected to be signed by the Parties within three (3) months after the finalization of the feasibility and due diligence study.

It's coming to Nov and nothing has materialised yet. It could well be a contract win or it could end up like other HOAs that silently lapsed. time will tell

from the 30 May announcement,

The LOI shall be effective on the date of signing and shall remain effective subject to termination by either party notifying of its intention to terminate in writing. The LOI serves only as a record of the parties’ intentions and does not constitute or create obligations under the Malaysian domestic law and will not give rise to any legal process and will not be deemed to constitute or create any legally binding or enforceable obligations, expressed or implied and neither party shall have any liability to the other party in respect of the same.

besides, everything is just speculation until Zhonghe actually pass some contract to Vivocom

I don't see any news that say they are getting 1.3bn but we shall see. the thing about Vivocom, I'm not sure if they are too transparent or not transparent at all. They announced every single event, including HOA. but after the HOA lapsed, they didn't even make follow up announcement.

kevin008 RM756m is just face value. it is not running at the same time. each phase is RM189 over 36 months. the impact on eps is so minimal mainly because of Vivocom's extremely large share base of >3bn

for Triplc, UiTM owes them RM42m a year for another 18 years. 18 x RM42m = RM756m. Net debt currently around RM300m plus a piece of land worth at least RM100m. Simple calculation already gives you more than RM500m. This haven't include the new RM600m Phase 3 contract. Phase 2 contract value ~RM250m, UiTM pays RM42m x 20 years, this round RM600m pay how much? I wouldn't be surprised if the payment could come close to RM2bn, albeit over a long period and new debts will need to be taken on

Vivo if you follow Triplc closely, you should realise that Triplc is now a concession biz as new construction contract haven't started. last quarter 25.5 sen was one off contract variation. if you read part 3 of my article and my comments you will know that I expected that

CKNYAM please don't blindly follow analysts. do you realise how many of the HOA has lapsed?

it is still a potential beneficiary under government affordable housing initiative but it seems a bit more niche in Perak, which could be limiting. overall like I highlighted a year ago, the company has good fundamentals but valuations are not very attractive

just to clarify, I am forecasting merely based on secured contracts and doesn't include future potential job win because I don't want to simply guess in this soft property market. i just pointed out, to support its revenue and profit, how much new contract would Vivicom NEED to secure annually. and even by sustaining at this level valuation is not compelling

the 756m project is in Kinta. it was no.6 the JCA contract. I did not add it under the orderbook because it seems less certain to me. anyway, if you insists on including, 4 phases each phase RM189m over 36 months. eps will increase by 0.2c. if added to 2016 eps then fair value will be close to the current market price 18c

nothing surprising, phase 3 construction haven't started. only concession steady income now. this has largely been the case since 2014. the prospect commentary by the management quite aptly summarise its steady nature and prospects. but of course short term game changer is Puncak, only 3 weeks away...

so can only apply simple and conservative growth rate to estimate their biz performance, which sometimes can be risky

that's the problem with companies below the radar, the disclosure is almost non-existent. we don't know the sales volume of their milk biz, the product mix, the sugar cost proportion, sugar source (whether local/international and whether affected by MSM price hike) and their ability to pass through any cost increase

I highlighted the risk of this counter in the comments a year ago when it shot up above 30c, so seems like fundamentals have prevailed