1. triplc is not very big, if own less than 100% (not privatised) doesn't make much sense. it is also tedious to run another listed subsidiary.

2. I also highlighted in the article that a listing shell is useful, not to mention lucrative (to him at least)

3. you assume it's irrational bcos it seems like you own puncak and not triplc shares. rozali's net worth has increased by easily more than RM20m through Triplc in the past 6 months. plus paying a fair price for the 2 subsidiaries doesn't mean he's overpaying (even though the listed Triplc is undervalued now). In any case, he doesn't lose, it's the minorities that are at his mercies.

that's why I say follow him instead of going against him

valuation can all be made up with changes in assumptions but it's just more difficult with concessions which has all the terms in black and white. n more importantly, seems like Rozali more interested in benefiting from Triplc side. so better follow him than go against him

seeing a lot of new faces here. welcome onboard and let's keep this comment section clean and civilised (not like some other companies)

Hi guys I'm back. You can refer to my latest article http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/purelysharing/100959.jsp here

you do realise that he mentioned that he incorporated Gigafactory strongly into his story right? btw, he's not any analyst, but a NYU Professor and one of the world's most respected valuation gurus. maybe read more carefully or google him next time before you comment...

if you read the company's reply, the high revenue is only one-off as they sold their gold inventory. Their gold production is still very low if you refer to their monthly mining stats. trading vol may be high but their number of shares are scarily huge. may be difficult to push up until more good news released

interesting idea, but EU officials may not yield to UK's demand as it could encourage other countries to do so as well

this should answer some questions http://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=73666&name=EA_GA_ATTACHMENTS

point to note is that triplc disposing is most likely a major disposal (75% shareholder approval) while puncak most likely just normal RPT acquisition (50%), so the deal dynamics could tilt to triplc side. that said, I sense that there are more and more bullish (overconfident?) posts with this stock. maybe it's a good time for me to take a hiatus and keep a sane mind until actual announcement happen

you can always sell and come back. just be ready to accept it if the price doesn't go down (or the window could be so small you miss it). Heed your own profit target and don't fall for greed. Others' opinion is their biz

not really, they can always justify their price. NTA RM150m - land (RM40m in the books) + new contract (RM600m x % margin). even at RM3, it's only about RM200m, nothing compares to their RM1b cash. but I agree it's not good news for Puncak and its shareholders.

big players want it up, so you are in safe hands for now, just ride along. just don't forget to get out once they start leaving

this shows insiders in play....announcement may not be coming soon yet but insiders know roughly how much is it already.

relax guys, it's not happening yet. but seems like big players know the price already. hold tight and don't get shaken out

without puncak, this company is just a value trap. so those who say it's overvalued may have their point, but just didn't consider the current circumstances

18 Aug is deadline (assuming no delay). those interested should position latest before end July

less than 2 months to go

there are lots of Brexit articles out there but it's my hope that you don't see it as just another generic Brexit article and are able to take home something from it and apply to your own investment. Then the hours spent would be well worth

it's a healthy consolidation today. only worry if price down and volume spiked up

most likely, just flip for quick buck. that's why I assumed 10% maximum ESOS issued when I calculate the fair value (very conservative, unlikely to happen) because you know these crooks surely want to benefit themselves as well. we can expect more issuance all the way until completion, if it happens

haha fingers crossed here as well

i'm just gonna put another wild prediction here (don't hold me to it). if one day suddenly this counter price shot up, that means good news is near, just buy. after good news announced, sell next day at opening bell (should earn a little bit) as that will be the short term peak. for those greedy ones can always pick it up again on retracement

@lcwin in principle i agree with u. but in this case, buayas have self interest as well. so when buayas interest are aligned with us, we just play alongside them but that doesn't mean we trust them

@richard wong to answer your question, the disposal consideration may take into account the cash level of the subsidiary. but when you sell a company, all assets and liabilities go with the transaction. e.g. a subsidiary can have asset 100m (of which cash 50m), liability 50m, equity 50m. buyer and seller can agree to transact at 60m. then the seller gets 60m cash proceeds from the disposal but the 50m cash in the company he sold will now legally belong to the buyer, same thing for other assets and liabilities in the company. so cashflow from disposal and the original cash inside the subsidiary are 2 separate things

another wild guess of mine is, because it will take quite a lot to explain to Puncak shareholders, Puncak may just ask a valuer to value the contracts, maybe one of the big 4 or other accounting firms. best case scenario, their hands are tied by the assumptions disclosed in the annual report (discount rates, cashflows etc which I used in my valuation) so they have to come up with a value close to mine. then everybody huat ah!

@littlelolita direct translation is correct but I do not agree with some of the points.

2) the cash may not be meaningful as they may be held at the subsidiary level. if they sell the subsidiary, the cash goes with it. same as the RM200m+ debt. it is not a net cash company, at least not now
4) the agreement signed was only HOA. no matter how unlikely we think, there is always some risk that nothing may happen in the end as it is not legally binding. the price is also not confirmed yet.

if u r interested, I did value Triplc at net cash in my article and all my assumptions are stated there. u may refer there and make your own conclusions

@ckk2266 I agree with u but still need to be careful. if they want to ensure the deal good through, they have to take care of Puncak shareholders' feelings as well. Puncak shareholders might not see the value of Triplc as you and I do

so with land disposal still in flux, don't get too greedy. for those of us who entered below RM1.50, it's ok to hold on for another 1-2 months. for those entering now, please monitor the status of the HOA. If somehow Rozali decides to buy it cheap, better get out fast

point to note is that if Puncak buy both the new phase 3 contract and the existing phase 2, triplc most likely will drop into affected listed issuer category as they don't have any real biz anymore. anyway if this transaction happens, it will most likely be a major disposal, meaning that triplc will need to get 75%shareholders approval (excluding Rozali portion). Bottom line, they need to make it attractive for triplc shareholders to support the deal. I'm expecting at least RM2.00 with special dividend thrown in. But the potential trap is they may not make it too attractive if not Puncak shareholders will vote no

hi @richard wong, is that your FB page?

@Want_to_know
this is a deep asset play company with valuable land and lucrative construction contracts. but the price increase mainly due to this, see my article http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/purelysharing/95049.jsp

worst case scenario if puncak is trying to buy cheap, better lock in your profit n run. I trust the company's value, but not d management...

hopefully this is just a glimpse of what is to come

for those who got burnt this round, let's just hope it's money u can afford to lose. for those who still don't get why it's such a landslide defeat, u can refer to the article below http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/purelysharing/93864.jsp http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/purelysharing/93990.jsp

now let's see how fast can the cash be returned

i will only repeat this once for the sake of all retail investors (I don't hold Gtronic). QR results will be out today, expected to be poor but that's not the reason for the selldown. Real reason is their sensors order have been delayed and volumes have been cut significantly (10-50%). this is real change in their fundamentals and earnings visibility. u can expect analysts to cut their TP significantly in their next report. Big fund managers have received the news yesterday morning. DO NOT catch the knive until the storm has calmed. please repost if u wish to pass on d message.

QR is EXPECTED to be poor so it's not the reason behind this crash. have u seen a counter drop so drastically just bcos of "expected" poor results? it's bigger problem causing this n globetronics is dragging down all other tech counters. for those who still believe in its fundamentals n want to collect, pls b patient n u could collect it possibly cheaper

QR is expected to be poor so it's not the reason

heard that its swiss customer is ordering half of what was expected for the sensors. it's a real change in fundamentals and analysts are going to cut their target price. try to avoid it until the storm calms down

hi guys I have added a section based on the sun article. now let's see how this all pans out :) market cap now is only RM100m

thanks guys for the inputs, especially ckk2266. there's really only that much I can do in half a day after they announce the HOA, that's why all your feedbacks are much appreciated

@ckk2266 thanks a lot. indeed mind blowing!!! maybe I'll try doing a separate scenario if that is true

there are no details on Z1P3 contract yet. If Z1P2 was RM266m but actual payment was RM850m over 20+ years, I wonder if the RM599m Z1P3 the actual payment would be over RM1.5b? what I'm estimating now is the opposite, meaning RM599m as actual payment and revenue/costs/profits are much lower. If indeed is the other way round, the value of Triplc Medical could b mind blowing

@ckk2266 thanks for highlighting that. missed that one out but the valuation shd still b correct as we have entered the availability charges phase. that estimation was only to try to estimate d profit margin

@Ricky Yeo thanks for the comment. yes I agree with you as they need to pay off the debts in the earlier years. the company will only reap the benefits in later years

please do note that inclusion of debt and interest increases the DCF value. this is because their finance costs is lower than the discount rate

it is puzzling that after sticking around for all these years, aspire would walk away when all green lights are given. n d way kian joo just announce it in a few sentences. I have a feeling that there may be more than what we see. with kwap news out, maybe shd hold a while longer to see what's going on actually

if u check the circular when they buyout the 20% of F&B, basis was 15 times 2013 profit. i think there must be something brewing if not the rumours would not be there in the first place. if they really dispose it off, it doesn't make sense for them to sell at the same PE, should try to sell higher

why I sound so naggy is because there's also one point when I got into the same confusion as the author. it's difficult to digest people's thoughts especially when u thought u have cracked something new that people didn't discover previously.

my hope is just that the author won't stay confused as long as I did last time and everyone can learn from each other.

if my comments come off as too blunt or rude, then I apologise as it's not my intention to belittle your thoughts

sometimes it's not about age or mensa score, if not the Nobel prize will probably go to the oldest guy with the highest mensa score. I don't mean any hostility here but just calm down and try putting some figures in.

u bought Maybank shares today at x cost. after that, Maybank declares dividend. up to u, get cash dividend or get shares. if shares then you sell them off and get cash. either way u can try to calculate and see what's the % over x.

for normal companies, all shareholders get money out of the company. in this case, u got diluted cos u get cash out of the company while other shareholders did not. what you get is cash + diluted stake in a financially stronger company (stronger than those that pay cash dividend due to other shareholders reinvesting their dividend). the company's net asset does not drop as much as compared to when everyone is getting cash dividend and don't forget P/B is one of the key measures for banking stocks.

for anyone who still can't understand why the author seems to also have some points, I would suggest to read Modigliani and Miller's no dividend theory. I think the author got confused on that line of thought and is doubting whether some dividend should be counted as dividend (basically M&M is saying dividend is just something u exchange with a portion of your share value). reading that does not directly give u the answer but may help u understand this whole dividend thing better.

if not another day some articles will come out complaining " I bought shares at RM2, got dividend RM0.10 but ex-date share price becomes RM1.90, I didn't gain anything so the 5% dividend yield is fake..."

bottom line, DRIP is still considered a dividend. whether it's superior/inferior to cash dividend is your preference. how much actual dividend yield turns out (including DRIP) depends on how well the stock perform. I know there are some pretty dumb fund managers out there, but please don't think that the whole world's fund managers can be dumb enough to not see what DRIP really is