mother of all bullshit

low margin, high minority share of net profit, dilution by warrants, be careful when price has shot up so much

good day to bargain hunt thanks to a few bombs

many already highlighted before PDP make up bulk of their orderbook, yet people gleefully take the whole orderbook amount x current margins, speechless

unlikely. if he wanted to privatise, he would have done it at lower price before the share rally. this 32c just helps him to service his borrowings when he bought the controlling stake from previous shareholder

again shows you better be careful of stocks that shot up a lot before announcement. sell on news is real in Malaysia

the operator everytime up then pause, traders must be very frustrated each time

hmm it's interesting. alcom has cash of RM54m but they are gearing up to pay the RM42m capital repayment. so if they are really that serious in achieving an efficient capital structure, does that mean better dividends ahead?

for those who don't get the reference it's ok, nothing important

lol I'm gonna do a captain america and say "language"

yes the beauty with dividend or capital repayment is after the payment, operating earnings potential remains the same (excluding interest income). so returning excess cash back to shareholder will adjust the market price and make the PE, ROE and other ratios much more attractive

price up here get crowded again :)

company already warned analyst next quarter will still be weak bcos of CNY no work progress. plus the deferred income it's not defer one quarter but until completion of the boiler part. this is another level of stupidity

classic example of emotions getting the better of the investor

the petron operator controls it with a tight leash, recent months always sudden up move, then quiet or retrace, people get tired, up again and repeat. my guess is it will wear down all the short term traders before making any major moves.

well not sure how market needs to agree with me when C11 is already up 17% from the time of writing and don't forget bursa mother already ex dividend.

hehe so quiet here

petron is quite illiquid, so it is actually quite easy to manipulate. I still remember how it went up from 4 to 5 in matter of days then crashed like no tomorrow just days before results before went limit up. then when the price keep retracing from 6+ to below 6 then 5.70, everyone is like saying hold on tight don't sell, then the sell queue really disappeared until bid ask spread was so wide.

operator can play their own games but I believe give it enough time, they accumulate enough then the price will follow its natural course

as infrastructure revenue grows in proportion, margin is also expected to drop. so simple extrapolation is risky. usually wealthwizard is more detailed than this, this article just seems to have been pushed out in a rush

orderbook value may be one thing, but what's inside the orderbook is equally important

most of the 6.2b orderbook is the share of LRT PDP contract. so what they are going to earn is not as high. that's why even the company or the analysts are not expecting much higher revenue or profit

so all in all, the selling point is the additional capacity from farmbest.

just few question, since farmbest is 53% owned and 2018 would recognise four quarters from farmbest, shouldn't the non-controlling interest get more % out of the net profit? and what are the reasons why CAB will sometimes post quarterly losses? sorry too lazy to check myself so just tap you brain

to me, poultry stocks still doesn't deserve high PE since the industry produce generic products, has little moat and is a price-taker both in terms of products selling price and inputs costs. if assuming 25c is achiveable by 2018, 10 times PE Tp will be 2.50, 8 times will be 2.00. I have no idea how high/low it should be, so will leave it to those interested in CAB

good, price is up and C11 premium finally start to expand after ex-dividend

my reply to kahhoeng

the market is not always right but it's usually fair.

Triplc was undervalued back then because nobody really understood the university concession biz. all they see is the high gearing and they freaked out. plus it's a very small company with low liquidity so it's does not really appeal to most. but now more people understand that high gearing in concession biz is not all bad, it's just the nature of the biz. that's why now you see stocks like ekovest, WCE, ahmad zaki are all surging

after puncak started the negotiations (and maybe some have read my articles), people start to appreciate the company more until the highest it went up around 2.40. so if according to your theory that market is always the best indicator, then that shows the value

after the deal was announced, people sold on news as the deal like I said was not entirely favourable to Triplc plus the timeline seems longer than initially expected. price is low now most likely because of 1) deal execution risk and 2) opportunity cost (most don't want to invest in laggard stock in a bull market). so like I said, market may not be right but it is fair

in any disposals, it is meant to unlock value, just like disposing a plot of land, you will sell it at market value regardless of what your old book value is. similarly puncak cannot expect to buy Triplc at price, but should buy at value, if not what's the purpose of disposal?

puncak's price now is also fair because despite the so called high NTA and high cash, it is still bleeding losses and burning cash. lastly, I have stress it many times, the deal is good for puncak bad for triplc. it is the golden ticket for puncak to finally return to profitability and let market re-rate it. too bad many shareholders are still too blind to see it.

it's more realistic to bet that once puncak makes profit again after the acquisition, the price will move back up rather than hoping for an unrealistic cash windfall of RM2.50

the market is not always right but it's usually fair.

Triplc was undervalued back then because nobody really understood the university concession biz. all they see is the high gearing and they freaked out. plus it's a very small company with low liquidity so it's does not really appeal to most. but now more people understand that high gearing in concession biz is not all bad, it's just the nature of the biz. that's why now you see stocks like ekovest, WCE, ahmad zaki are all surging

after puncak started the negotiations (and maybe some have read my articles), people start to appreciate the company more until the highest it went up around 2.40. so if according to your theory that market is always the best indicator, then that shows the value

after the deal was announced, people sold on news as the deal like I said was not entirely favourable to Triplc plus the timeline seems longer than initially expected. price is low now most likely because of 1) deal execution risk and 2) opportunity cost (most don't want to invest in laggard stock in a bull market). so like I said, market may not be right but it is fair

in any disposals, it is meant to unlock value, just like disposing a plot of land, you will sell it at market value regardless of what your old book value is. similarly puncak cannot expect to buy Triplc at price, but should buy at value, if not what's the purpose of disposal?

puncak's price now is also fair because despite the so called high NTA and high cash, it is still bleeding losses and burning cash. lastly, I have stress it many times, the deal is good for puncak bad for triplc. it is the golden ticket for puncak to finally return to profitability and let market re-rate it. too bad many shareholders are still too blind to see it.

it's more realistic to bet that once puncak makes profit again after the acquisition, the price will move back up rather than hoping for an unrealistic windfall of RM2.50

weekly petrol price helps to reflect the oil price environment faster, so it should help petron to smooth out the volatility in their earnings. however they have a refining operations where lead time is longer compared to pure retailers like PetDag, so it will still be exposed to a lesser extent of those inventory gains/losses

i also just heard from a friend. apparently they now hold record high orderbook and if you notice, the results announced cummulative was only from May, so full year actually they make more than RM250m, so PE is actually less than 10. one of the cheapest oil and gas stocks in the market

but kudos to kahhoeng. regardless whether it has changed your mind, but at lest you have the guts to share what MSWG actually mention although it contradicts your initial thinking

long time ago I already said the deal is good for puncak bad for triplc, clouded shareholders don't want to believe, now even MSWG agrees. anyone who does a bit of homework on concession biz and the land price would have known that.

Triplc price is low now because people don't know how long this deal is going to take to complete, just like why Puncak price is low because nobody knows when they will turn profitable

r°Moi is still in denial. if market is so efficient, then don't bother investing already. everything is reflected in the price where got upside

I said it long time ago the deal, if unfair, it's to Triplc shareholders rather than Puncak. some people never convinced until now even MSWG agrees with me

I have a bit of CB mainly for leverage purposes only. if trade CB has to understand the risks and the strategy will be very different from investing in mother as it is expiring soon

overall I'm still positive about May results.

the way I interpret it, there are a few factors supporting it

1. higher retail price is better for topline revenue
2. higher margin spread is good for margins
3. for potential inventory losses, Petron seems to only hold around 1 month inventory and I'm not sure how much is split between crude and processed products. if you notice, gasoline price still increase qoq so any inventory losses shouldn't be significant
4. last quarter margin surge is not exactly due to inventory gains because inventory cannot be stated higher than cost, it's more of a timing benefit

e.g. they bought crude oil back in Sept for Oct sales, crude price is cheaper 1-2 months ago but in Oct, government fixed retail price at 1.80 because of increasing oil price trend in Sept, so technically Petron benefit by buying cheaper and selling higher

so similarly when crude price started to drop in early Mar, but Mar retail price is already fixed (Ron 95 at 2.30) so timing wise Petron didn't lose out as whatever stock they bought back in Jan/Feb for processing, they still get to sell it at 2.30 (which was determined when average price is around 56)

the only time when they lose out is like past week when retail price is revised down as oil price retraced but raw materials were bought before Mar when oil price was higher. so my theory is only a sustained downtrend would result in significant inventory losses qoq but looking at oil price now, it seems to be back up so that may not hit them much

overall I'm not greedy, an EPS of 25-30c is good enough. I think what scares away investor is the quarterly volatility. annual results are quite stable at around 80c EPS. if looking to invest longer term, any swing in quarterly results wouldn't matter plus annual free cashflow over market cap is almost 20%

update for indicators 3Q16 vs 4Q16 vs 1Q17

Ron95 (RM): 1.75/1.75/1.70 vs 1.80/1.95/1.90 vs 2.10/2.30/2.30
Asia Tapis spread: 4.90 vs 6.78 vs 8.47
Asia Minas spread: 9.36 vs 11.03 vs 11.95
Crude oil closing price: 49 vs 56.8 vs 52.8
Gasoline (petrol) closing price: 148 vs 166 vs 170

update for indicators 3Q16 vs 4Q16 vs 1Q17

Ron95 (RM): 1.75/1.75/1.70 vs 1.80/1.95/1.90 vs 2.10/2.30/2.30
Asia Tapis spread: 4.90 vs 6.78 vs 8.47
Asia Minas spread: 9.36 vs 11.03 vs 11.95
Crude oil closing price: 49 vs 56.8 vs 52.8
Gasoline (petrol) closing price: 148 vs 166 vs 170

Affin Hwang initiate with target price 2.40

for once I actually agree with calvin. after dropping to RM1, it's not strange for it to rebound but from RM1.30 onwards to RM1.70, there seems to be a strong cornering of the shares. my guess is kyy is just doubling his bet to push it up high enough to give him enough margin to pare down. he has almost RM200m margin stuck in Jaks which doesn't pay dividend. he can't really afford to be patient unlike those who bought with cash

that said, profit is profit. so for those who are profiting from Jaks now just be aware of the risks

kyy is so funny. he might as well compare with maybank, no MW at all but top market cap of Bursa

as I also said before, crude oil price will mainly affect inventory gain/loss. more important is to look at the margin which is the difference between crude oil price (input) and refined product price (output)

estimated inventory gain/loss or refining margins are all just rough indicators for the upcoming results. but at least we know the sales price to end user (retail price) and raw material input cost (crude oil price) which is quite standard, unlike some funny steel companies whose cost was higher than expected as they couldn't get the supply and sales price got pressed down by customers due to lack of pricing power

last monday I already predicted weekly api and eia inventory report will start to surprise on the upside, but the strong oil price is still a positive surprise

congrats to those who make money out of this stock. but the price movement has implied a very huge upturn in its financials, failing to deliver would send it back to ground zero

syndicate collected upfront of course broke resistance

low volume not a problem. let those who know its value bid it up

hahaha, this is so hilarious until I'm not even mad about this clickbait. haven't laugh so hard for a long time

strong rebound after shaking out profit takers

crude oil traders are fickle, they are just constantly looking for excuses to long/short. for petron, oil price will only affect inventory gains/losses which will fluctuate qoq, more important is the refining margin and how the biz is growing

that said, crude oil is rallying at the right timing, just before Mar quarter ends. that means 1Q earnings will still be good. maybe not as great as last quarter (that was exceptional) but still good

company have issues with Indonesia plantation, if lose the court case could hit them badly

@L. C. Chong those are the catalysts you can look forward to. now it's closer to 1Q17 results already, 4Q16 is history

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/30/local-funds-to-the-fore/
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/29/new-ipos-to-drive-bursa-trading-velocity-higher/

I already called this two days ago, finally the oil traders open their eyes to look at gasoline and distillate inventories drawdown.
brent price up >2%, meaning the biggest potential downside factor for 1Q results which is the inventory losses will be much smaller than initially expected


personally I see more upside on oil price now rather than downside

1. crude oil inventory data could start to surprise positively, maybe as early as tomorrow's API data as US refineries ramp up production to prepare for coming summer

2. demand is increasing again. China Caixin PMI is above 50 again since late last year, meaning China's manufacturing recession may be coming to an end

3. opec leaning towards extending the supply cut agreement. current lower oil price environment makes it even more important to extend as the news alone would support the price. besides, the most important country, saudi is planning for saudi aramco ipo and it's crucial to reap as high valuation as possible. they even cut the tax rate just for this ipo so they probably will try to support the oil price as far as possible
28/03/2017 10:27

this page getting very rowdy, i guess the operator behind this stock is successful in winding a lot of people up with past 2 days price. I already said before no need to get overexcited, that's the job for contra players or traders.