Posted by Steven Chow > Aug 1, 2015 06:41 PM | Report Abuse
Better follow Koon Yew Yin advise

Posted by Steven Chow > Aug 1, 2015 06:57 PM | Report Abuse
KYY give free hot tips. So far all cun

Is this the product of the education system in Malaysia nowadays? Better follow hot tips rather than learning some life-long useful principles?

Wow, I am out of date now, didn't know the present education system has deteriorated to such an extend!

ks55,

The formula you used is a little conservative because the assumption built in your formula is this guy live forever. The equation is a perpetual equation.

However, after retirement at 60 say, one probably will live another 20-30 years. So if you plan for 30 years in retirement, the amount of money one must have at retirement follows this formula

Present value of annuity = P* [ 1 - (1 / (1 + r)^n) ] / r

P = 50000
r = 6%-4% for simplicity
n= 30 years

Plugging the numbers in give you a retirement sum of just RM1.12m, half that you got earlier.

However may be conservatism is good for retirement planning.

Posted by enning22 > Aug 1, 2015 04:21 PM | Report Abuse
没有 vs, cmsb, 只能说存在很多欠缺。


Just because no vs, then 很多欠缺? Great logic!

These are definitely sound advice.

Posted by Icon8888 > Aug 1, 2015 07:52 AM | Report Abuse
Thanks Noby. I am annoyed by my own mistake. Looked like the moat story has become irrelevant ^*++%%^**##¥
Luckily the stock is up a bit. Otherwise whoever that bought after reading the silly article will curse me


Everybody makes mistakes. There is no exception. No need to be hard on yourself.

I can see that you are sincerely sharing some very important considerations used by the proven super investors around the world; some of the best in my opinion. I am sure many people can learn a thing or two from here.

These things work well and they work all the time, at least in the long term, and surprisingly they also work in the short term of one or two years. Yes, that is my own experience too.

Posted by minghong > Jul 31, 2015 09:54 AM | Report Abuse
any sifu here mind to tell me the reference price for homeriz-wa when listed that day 15/7/15. thanks much.. (reference price not closing price)

"Posted by joerakmo > Jul 13, 2015 11:00 PM | Report Abuse
Reference price of warrant on listing is Homeritz share price less strike"

As the adjusted price was around RM1.01, the intrinsic value is RM1.01-0.92 = 9 sen.

That was why I said the reference price they use, which is the intrinsic value of the warrant is not a right reference, as it does not include any time value. The time value as you can see from the present price of Homeritz at 58 sen, is a few times of its intrinsic value.

Just had a peep on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. It closed at 3663 on July 31st 2015. Just less than two months ago on June 12th, it was at 5166. That means the broad Shanghai Index dropped by a whopping 30%, in less than two months!!

What do you think an individual high beta stock will drop? Could it be 50%?

Easy. I would think many would have dropped by 60%, 70% or even more!

What would happen to those who used say 50% of margin financing? Bankrupt!

What happen to the market sentiment? Fear, sleepless nights, begging for money from friends and relatives to cover margins.

What would happen to the stock market in Shanghai? Long term damage. All investors will suffer.

What happen to families of speculators using margins? Broken!

The big problem is the use of margin finance, the encouragement by the brokerage firms, the investment banks, all propagating that it was so easy to make use of other people money to make money. If you didn't do that, you would be branded as stupid! It was the problem of the Communist government for not controlling this weapon of mass destruction, the margin financing in stocks speculation.

Posted by moneyface88 > Jun 24, 2015 12:06 AM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif
“Hello Mr Sifu KC Chong .... from New Zealand ?
Your article very Keng , very analytical. I have learnt a lot reading this article of yours.
Then got worried and sold my V.S Share then share price moved up strongly.
Today Q2 result announced, not what you have expected, you must be disappointed
How much you charge ah to learn something from you ?
Please tell me so that I can subscribe to your tips”


Posted by moneyface88 > Jul 28, 2015 11:22 AM | Report Abuse
Yes. agree. when it was RM 4. one analyst from New Zealand said that V.S is no brainer investment and cheap cheap. He was right lah. New Zealand Analyst understand KLSE market very well


Mr Moneyface88,

You see you are like someone who uses a driver in a golf game and put in a hole in one(or your caddy could have placed that ball into the hole for you because you just can't see the hole from afar) in a 120m par three. You go shouting everywhere telling people you are so good doing that, in every gathering you go, and every time you have a chance.

When I play golf in Malaysia, I normally get a few pars, one or two double bogeys and seldom a triple bogey, and that will be a good round of golf for me. Yes, I am just an ordinary but keen golfer. When I play in New Zealand in summer, my scores is even better. During winter my score will not be good, but still is ok and not too far away.

You see when you have the fundamentals in golf, your score don't really vary that much.

I have never even seen you "playing golf", but just shouting how good you are, and worse, you go around mocking other golfers, again and again.

Posted by soojinhou > Jul 29, 2015 07:29 AM | Report Abuse
KC, your writing on ROE, ROIC and EV/EBIT helped me understand that these metrics are better indicators whether a company has a moat. Thanks for sharing, learned plenty from you.

If the management has been consistently in the past earning a return of capital higher than its cost, they must have been doing something right all the time. It is highly probable that they will continue to do so. And the reverse is also most probably true.

One needs not tell them how to handle the business, or issue what bonus, free warrants, or split to boast up the share price. Let them focus on the business and increase shareholder value.

And yes, if a business is earning high return on capital, there must be some kind of moat.

Posted by repusez > Jul 28, 2015 09:51 AM | Report Abuse
hi, any reason you have to use islamic banking in your example, "Assuming you want to invest RM1000 and your required return is 10%. You have the option to invest in two different Islamic banks below which distribute interest according to their financial performance."
i don't think islamic banking principle uses interest rate, they term it profit rate or something like that.

Thanks for pointing out. Let us focus on the message and the principle; whether it is called "interest" or "profit", the results are the same.

Posted by citychew_1886 > Jul 29, 2015 12:14 PM | Report Abuse
hi KC chong ,then how about if the index drop to very low just like 2008 crisis , let's say the klse index overall PE ratio is about 6-8 only ,and all the stocks you study is very cheap too .and you have no extra cash in hand,so do you think it is wisely to put margin finance at this moment .remember that such a good chance is not appear always...


If index drops to overall PE ratio of 6-8, there will be a lot of good buys then. Invest big, but with your own money. I will never use margin finance, simply because even the market is very cheap, you will never know if it will go down further. If you are on margin, and if the market drops another 30%, you will lose all your money, plus still owing to the banks. The market will eventually recover, you will be okay if you invest with your own money. But if you get caught with margin calls, it is hard for you to recover,simply because all your capitals are gone.

Won't happen like that? Read this. Ths thingy happens relatively often.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/73675.jsp

Investing is, well investing for building long-term wealth, not speculating.

Posted by Henry Tan > Jul 24, 2015 06:03 PM | Report Abuse

If I have 100K value of stock, with 150K margin facility. I only used up 50K, where debt is about 33%, which is far away from 60% margin call. Moreover, I buy in when the index drop like 20%. It then give me higher chance of not kena margin call, and higher in return.

What do you think of this strategy?


Good question. But before I give you my opinion, let me ask you some questions.

1) You request for 150k margin facility, so do you have to pay a start up fee as a percentage of 150K?
2) If the above is yes, what is the rationale of getting that margin finance, pay full fee, but only use 1/3 of it?
3) In Shanghai index, in one month the index dropped more than 30%. What do you think an individual stock will drop?
4) If your stock drops by 40%, what will be your loss? Let us not bother whether there is a margin call or not first.
5) If your equity loses by 50% because of margin finance, how much your stock must go up to break even?
6) Can a stock drop by 50% when the market drops 30%, or even 70% when forced selling of others are involved?
7) Why do you say if the market drops 20%, it give you higher chance of higher return? Can't it keep on dropping, when margin calls are all over?
8) Can you concentrate in your work with the fear of losing money?
9) Can you sleep well?
10)Can you ever recover because of the amplified losses due to margin financing even if the market recovers eventually?

Gary, well done in your stock selection using fundamentals of investing. From beginning of the year until now, KLCI is basically flat and you have made 39%. That is a great job.

More importantly, you have big winners in Microlin, Homeritz and ECS, and your losers are incurring only small loss.

I think if you adjust the free warrant for Insas, you should be in positive return for Insas.

For Homeritz, if you also adjust for the free warrant, I think your gain is much higher than the 26% stated.

Posted by tc88 > Jul 22, 2015 10:21 PM | Report Abuse

Not all stock can hold long term like your story KC. There is always a cycle for most stocks......up to a peak then will drop back. Those long term stocks like Coca cola, Wells Fargo and etc which Warren buffet own rarely can be duplicated nowadays......What stocks in Bursa Malaysia u think can hold for more than 20 years? Very few i think except Nestle, GAB, Carsberg and etc. I dont think KC can follow his teacher, hold same stock for 10 years, 20 years or more.


Did I say you must wait for 10m years or twenty years for any stock?

Posted by donfollowblindly > Jul 22, 2015 10:16 PM | Report Abuse
Why always mention old stocks? Why no new stocks? I also bought Tenaga before at below RM6.


1) I only talked about stocks which were posted in the blog, what price they were at all have records to see and not just hearsay.
2) When did you buy Tenaga at RM6.00? Where have you posted your record?
3) You just can't comprehend anything I wrote about. Many people don't realize the stocks they have had may be the best stocks they have.
4) I don't owe you any stock picks, do I?

" The problem is that sitting and waiting is torture today. There has to be action. There has to be improved profit in the next quarter or two. There has to be fast moves up and if something doesn’t play out within a few days or a few months, it’s a dud and not worth keeping any longer. “Next!”

“Investors today lack assiduity”. That’s Charlie Munger’s technical term for sitting on your ass and doing nothing."

Posted by lookingaround > Jul 19, 2015 10:20 PM | Report Abuse

Hi KC, maybe you could share a few more articles on cyclical stocks, such as electronic & semi conductor.

For a few cyclical stocks that were priced more than RM10 in the past such as Unisem and MPI, it is worthwhile to study if they could again reach or surpass their peak price in the past, giving that the major shareholders remain same and not much change in term of management style.

The cyclical stocks though extremely volatile in terms of price and financial performance, yet once grab the right chance/wave/theme, the return of these stocks are 10x faster than the dividend stocks.


The price of Unisem and MPI and other technology stocks went up to tens of Ringgit a piece during the Dotcom euphoria.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/73859.jsp

Those were the days of unreasonable overvaluation which is happening in Shanghai Stock Exchange recently, but I doubt it would happen again in Bursa.

Well may be i shouldn't say it won't, but i don't know when if ever because this involves pure human behaviour, less to do with business cycle and valuation.

Posted by pputeh > Jul 18, 2015 11:59 AM | Report Abuse

Definitely this stock is a laggard. The directors are not proactive and zzzzzzzzzzzzzz... collect their directors fees and not think of shareholders. Sickening. Look at all the other furniture counters... Lii Hen, Poh Huat, Hevea have all moved. Lastly they give a miserable div yearly and expect shareholders to be happy.


Sometimes I really don't understand what do investors want, or do they understand how to calculate return of a stock, or do they know trees don't grow into the sky.

When I first wrote about Latitude Tree just two years ago, way before some people touting it, its share price was just RM1.26 a piece.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/77997.jsp

At the close last Friday, it was RM6.10. The gain is already 384% in less than two years.

Less than one and a half year ago on 12th March 2015, I wrote about its cash flows and did some valuations on it when it was RM2.57. The return till now is still very high at 137%.

Just 8 months ago on 21st December 2014, I wrote about it again when its share price is RM3.58.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/66908.jsp

And with some valuations:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/67260.jsp

Even if you have bought just 8 month ago, your return is still a whopping 73%.

Don't you think the management has created, and continuous to do so, tremendous shareholder value in these two years? What else do investors want?

If you have bought it high when touted by some people at more than RM6.00, is it the management's fault if it won't go up like before any more?

Is there any realism in investing?

Posted by dennisylw > Jul 19, 2015 01:12 AM | Report Abuse
Hi KC,
Referred to your post on 26/04/2015 18:56,
"A with profit insurance policy can never yield a return of even 5%".

Do you mind to share more details on that? I know it's kinda out of topic, but following the link below,

http://www.investmentmoats.com/budgeting/do-your-insurance-saving-plans-endowment-give-you-3-to-5-returns/

From the research done by Kyith, most of the endowment policies returns stood at around 2% to 4% or even worse, as same as your statement here, does it included those savings plans and investment-linked insurance policies?


Me: Endowment policies, saving plans, investment-linked insurance policies won't give you a return anywhere near 4% as stated by you. Bear in mind, firstly they serve other purpose such as life insurance coverage which comes with a cost and part of your regular premiums go towards that, and only part of them go to investment. Secondly the insurance adviser/agent will get a very big junk of your premiums for the first few years as their agent fees, and there are annual fees in the fund management, by the fund managers, as well as the insurance companies. So how much of your premium is left for investment? Even though the long-term return of equity investment is say 10%, your investment return will still be far away from that 4% return a year in the long term. Bear in mind, few funds, including insurance funds can beat the market return.

Insurance agents or financial advisers wont tell you that, a big proportion of them, even those licensed qualified financial planners/advisers don't even understand it.

Am I badmouthing the industry? No, I worked as one before and know it very well.

In this world, there is no free lunch.

Posted by moneyface88 > Jul 14, 2015 01:15 PM | Report Abuse
Sifu KC, do you have anymore No Brainer investment to recommend ? I will listen to you.

Posted by moneyface88 > Jun 24, 2015 12:05 AM | Report Abuse
Hello Mr Sifu KC Chong .... from New Zealand ?
Your article very Keng , very analytical. I have learnt a lot reading this article of yours.
Then got worried and sold my V.S Share then share price moved up strongly.
Today Q2 result announced, not what you have expected, you must be disappointed
How much you charge ah to learn something from you ?
Please tell me so that I can subscribe to your tips


Mr Moneyface88,
I can see beaming with joy and boasting your story of success in investing everywhere and to everyone like the lady who had 18 in a Black Jack game, called for a card and got a three as described in my article here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/79050.jsp

The purpose of me appending the above link is also kind of advise you to focus on the process rather than the outcome of just a hand of black jack. You seem only know about price, and no value; asking all the time for tips, follow rumours and hot stocks, all the time thinking to be spoon fed, rather than learning something, think analytically, independently, and catch your own fish.

Posted by joerakmo > Jul 13, 2015 11:00 PM | Report Abuse
Actual 'in the money' to me means current price of warrant plus strike is less than current mother share price and NOT just mother share price above strike.
Reference price of warrant on listing is Homeritz share price less strike;rest up to market forces unless you have a very clear objective and forward intrinsic value of the mother share.
Basic premise of cum and ex calculation is that over the 16 hours between close and open the market capitalization does not change.
This is my own practical approach to it.Hope it helps.


You do have your rational approach in the calculations of cum and ex calculations and I think that is what Bursa does. But I have a couple of points.

1) Theoretically, "current price of warrant plus strike less than current mother share price" is the "premium". whether a warrant is "in-the-money" or not is if the underlying share price (S)is more than the warrant conversion price (K), i.e. S>K.

2) Your reference price of the warrant when listed is S-K which I think is right. But Homeritz warrant will be bidden up where above the value of S-K because that is only the "intrinsic value" of the warrant. There is a much higher "time value" of a 5-year expiry warrant.

joerakmo kcchong:
For Homeritz the calculation should be as such:
NS = ex homeritz share
1.53 x 4000= 4000NS + 2000NS(bonus share) + 1000W
1Warrant + 0.92 = 1NS
Hence:
(1.53 X 4000) + 920 = 7000NS
1NS= 1.00571 which is rounded down to 1.00

joerakmo,
Your computation of the adjusted price of Homeritz is the same as the article. Your explanation is clearer rather than relying on the generic formula given by my article. Thanks for your input.

Bear in mind the way you compute is based on the conversion of the warrants with an intrinsic value but ignore the time value of the warrants.

The article also estimated option value of Homeritz warrant based on the underlying share price at 97 sen. Now Homeritz closed at RM1.03 today. The pertinent question is what is the estimated price of its warrant?

Posted by LangeSohneGlashutte > Jul 13, 2015 05:23 PM | Report Abuse

Hi KC,
May I know what software did you use to screen for the Magic Formula?

Thank you.


The magic formula metrics of ROIC and earnings yield, Ebit/EV are not commonly available from any screen, I think. May be from overseas paid site like gurufocus. I do them "by hand".

Posted by paperplane2 > Jul 12, 2015 06:13 PM | Report Abuse
Technically it is called risk free when you have warrant in discount. As you can convert and sell the mother soonest. Provided of course you can convert fast.


This is definitely a risk arbitrage, unless you can short sell the underlying stock. I call it execution risk. The advantage of it is your potential gain as you said is high at 30%, quite a wide margin. However anything can happen before the whole conversion exercise is carried out and completed, probably in two to three weeks time.

I got burned before many years ago when a similar situation happened on a stock and its warrant call Country Height with the cunning and manipulative major shareholder and manager. So watch out who is behind the company, if he is trustworthy. It is hard to find a big fat frog jumping all around nowadays.

Posted by HITnRUN > Jul 12, 2015 08:41 AM | Report Abuse

who determine the price of warrant listing? Bursa or the Homeriz company?


Who determines the share prices traded in Bursa?

Posted by paperplane2 > Jul 12, 2015 03:12 AM | Report Abuse
If now I spot an opportunity to arbitrage to gain near 30%return,shaall I do so in big scale?

I highly doubt you have any risk free arbitrage opportunity. If you are talking about risk arbitrage which is likely the case, then you have to view each circumstance.

Posted by citychew_1886 > Jul 12, 2015 10:26 AM | Report Abuse
hi KC , good discuss and analysis from your post .i think bonus issue is almost same with the share split . it does not add in any true value to the company .
it just a matter of the share liquidity .


Actually how does bonus issues and share split help in liquidity?

Previous if you want to invest in say Public Bank, you have to have at least RM15500 to buy a lot of 1000 shares. Now you can invest in 100 shares with RM1550.

Posted by paperplane2 > Jul 11, 2015 11:51 PM | Report Abuse

Kc,i notice not much ppl do arbitrage in bursa. Does this proof our mkt inefficient?


I would say market everywhere is not that inefficient. There is little or no risk free arbitrage opportunity around, and if there is any, there are a lot of limitations for the arbitrage opportunities, for example cross holding of companies making it hard for others to gain control, or the risk reward is not that attractive.

Icon8888,

Congrats. You received very good readership.

Keep it up.

Posted by paperplane2 > Jul 5, 2015 05:46 PM | Report Abuse
Kc, would you recommend holding more cash now?

Good question. My answer to your question is

1)Are the stocks you have chosen follow the principle of the Dhandho Investors; i.e. Heads I win, Tails I don't lose much", or following The Greater Fool Theory?

2)Are you able to sleep well at night?

If you are able to answer well the above questions, you should be able to decide for yourself. Nobody can tell you what to do.

westinee,

Good sharing. Yes, some people made killings in the stock market, not sure how many really did that. So they boast around and keep on teaching (yes, this very word was used) the general public to use margin finance to try to make big too. Your point is you have seen many suffered terribly as a result of using margin financing in 1993, so have ks55 in 1998, GheeKong, soojinhou etc.

So is it an appropriate thing to do by keep on telling the general public, the newbies, our younger generation to use margin finance to speculate in the share market without caring about the possible consequence which you all have shown are real possibility?

Ntpboon
I always like your Chinese poems. You are a talented guy.
Posted by Ntpboon > Jul 4, 2015 03:48 PM | Report Abuse

Relax,just for laugh................

青菜不买买股票，
大妈赚得哈哈笑。
股市一转就大掉，
如今大妈找楼跳。


I also like cpng's wisdom in Chinese.
Posted by cpng > Jul 3, 2015 09:44 PM | Report Abuse

中国股市崩盘,随时令中南海晃动。

当年国民党军3~400万雄师,在抗战胜利后不到4年的光景,被不到百万解放军吃光。

如今物换星移,中国大陆今年6月底的股民9000万人,还多过共产党。

没有买卖,就没有伤害,但当大家的身家性命都压上去时,股市的三长两短,中南海坐立不安。

ks55,

Thanks for your real life experience. Only people who have gone through a real crisis appreciates the perils of margin financing.

Margin financing in stock investing is never designed for the well being of ordinary investors, but for the investment bankers, brokers to make more money from them from bigger transactions and hence the higher costs, interest costs, broking costs, facility cost etc.

Posted by Gheekong > Jul 4, 2015 02:00 PM | Report Abuse

We have to be prudent when investing because we do not want to contemplate jumping off a high building,in front of a train or a cliff when things take a bad turn in the stock market. Any adverse financial situation will affect the whole family,so be more responsible and keep in mind the worst case scenario. Avoid the worst case scenario,as you cannot afford for this to happen to you. Then think about making money in the stock market.


10 likes!

Posted by aikwais > Jul 2, 2015 11:56 PM | Report Abuse

Dear kcchongnz

I can think of BONIA and DSONIC. Maybe you can add them in your case studies.


Thanks aikwais. In Bonis's case the share price continued to rally after the announcement of bonus. It finally revert back to the price before the announcement. A good case of in the long term, it behaves lke a weighing machine.

The last bonus issue of Datasonic was a trap for those new investors chasing bonus issues. It did not do the magic as its earlier share split and bonus.

So is bonus issues good generally?

Posted by fortunebullz > Jul 3, 2015 10:58 PM | Report Abuse

"You tell the investors in China now, using margin financing is very bad, I believe many investors will scold you that you are a stupid investor.”

That is the problem. When they made some easy money using OPM, mostly due to luck, they become irrationally exuberance, overconfident, arrogant, looking down on others, scold others of some sensible comments. There are people who believe and condone the above behavior, having the opinion that it is the right thing to do, to scold for giving an opinion of wisdom, and it is cool thing to do.

Read this to have an idea of what bonus and free warrant issues are:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/79280.jsp

Posted by contemplator > Jul 2, 2015 11:46 AM | Report Abuse

"Bonus" is a gimmick term used by investment banker and the board of director. More proper term will be share split or share "dilution".

There is no free lunch in this world. No tooth fairy in stock investment as well.


What is the point some big shareholders asking management to give bonus issues, share split and free warrants? Speculating on the shares? Beats me!

914601117,

Thanks for your JAG case. I know one more stock which share price deteriorated badly after bonus issues.

I hope I can get more examples. I am gathering stocks like these for case studies.

Please explain the relevancy of your posts below in relation to this article.


Posted by Specialist > Jun 28, 2015 02:25 PM | Report Abuse

Mr Chong,you write well and is an exceptional FA investor.
All roads lead to Rome and also there are a dozen ways to skin a cat.
Do not under estimate those hidden dragons with tens of yrs of experience.
After all even with excetional fa skills,one still need buying power to move a stock north,in other words and put rather bluntly 'no money no talk'.


Posted by Specialist > Jun 28, 2015 02:30 PM | Report Abuse

In other words Mr Chong,you are also betting that a stock with strong fa will eventually attract the money flow to move it north eventually.

sense maker, thanks for the correction.

I have the Stock Performance Guide from Dynaquest for 2012 September edition which shows the highest price at RM9.94 in 2008. Not sure if there was an adjustment because of corporate exercises after that. KNM had numerous corporate exercises which is hard to keep track; numerous rights issues, bonus issues, warrant issues, private placements, consolidations, etc.

HONG KONG (AP) -- Chinese stocks plunged on Friday as panicked investors rushed to sell over fears that an extended bull market was coming to an end. Other world benchmarks fell as a standoff between Greece and its international creditors threatened to drag into the weekend.

SHANGHAI SLUMP: After a sizzling rally that more than doubled Shanghai's benchmark index over the past year, investors are now heading for the exit. One factor appears to be authorities tightening rules on margin financing, which involves using borrowed money to buy stocks. The market's drop may also be exacerbated by the herd mentality of retail investors, who play an outsize role in China's markets, or by margin investors being forced to sell off to meet margin calls.

ANALYST INSIGHT: "Although I continue to be optimistic about the longer-term trend of the China markets, it's clear that we are in a sharp correction phase," said Bernard Aw of IG Markets in Singapore. He said up until Thursday, $1.2 trillion had been wiped off of China's equity markets since they peaked June 14 at $10 trillion.

ASIA SCORECARD: The Shanghai Composite Index in mainland China plunged 7.4 percent to close at 4,192.87, bringing its losses for the week to 12.4 percent. The smaller Shenzhen Composite Index tumbled 7.9 percent to 2,502.96. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.8 percent to 26,663.87. Asian benchmarks outside of China were more muted.

> From: "Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd" <pcm_investment@poems.com.my>
> Date: 25 June 2015 06:17:51 pm GMT+8
> Subject: To Pick or To Time - Which is More Profitable?
> Reply-To: "Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd" <pcm@poems.com.my>
>
> Dear Investor
>
> Timing is important but it is very difficult to master. Trading based on timing is more suitable for those who are disciplined, can take occasional losses and no regret if they are wrong. Unfortunately, most people cannot overcome these behavioral shortcomings. If you cannot control these emotions, timing the market could end up being a worse strategy.
>
> Thank you.
>
> Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd
> 25 June 2015

Posted by bboycc > Jun 24, 2015 05:07 PM | Report Abuse
Mr. KC Chong, your sharing is indeed very useful. Dont get upset by those butthurt ppl easily. Appreciate your effort in i3.


bboycc,

Thanks for your concern. But do you think I should get upset by feedback like these?


Posted by Frank Soweto > Jun 24, 2015 08:34 AM | Report Abuse
hahaha funny LOLLLL the writer got good sense of humor :)
good article to explain his course info too imo :)

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Jun 24, 2015 08:53 AM | Report Abuse
I was called up by a company which provide TA and FA teaching in the market, this company charged the fee > Rm 10,000 for the full course.
Mr Ooi, since you are a good friend of KC Chong, please tell him not to spoilt the market to charge so cheap in his course.
Likewise, Mr Ooi, you also should not spoilt the market too.
KC Chong and I are doing a service to investing public for a small fee, invest with a special skill to win consistently in KLSE years after years.

Posted by lohman > Jun 24, 2015 09:14 AM | Report Abuse
In my book, both KC and OTB have their heart in the right place and that is what matters the most.


Posted by Karenng > Jun 24, 2015 04:49 PM | Report Abuse
I am a silent reader of 13invest. I give my comment once a while when the need arises to say something practical. I must humbly thank both Messrs OTB and KC for their contributions in this forum. I believe they are doing a great job which is free of charge. Just be thankful we have these gentlemen here to make our investment interesting.


Posted by glukolin > Jun 25, 2015 08:21 AM | Report Abuse
I am a student of KC also and i must say he really taught me a lot on the fundamental of investing.

Posted by ickywin > Jun 25, 2015 06:54 PM | Report Abuse
Although I'm not Mr KC Chong student but I have learn a lot by reading his posting in I3 on business fundamental for the past few month and it had help me to identify some of the good company. I hope 1 day I will be able to subscribe and learn from u. Once again thank you Mr. KC Chong

Posted by WH Khoo > Jun 25, 2015 10:29 PM | Report Abuse
KC Chong & OTB, appreciate ur sharing as always

Posted by citychew_1886 > Jun 26, 2015 03:11 AM | Report Abuse
Hi KC , i like the way and the formula you analyst the stock , as i know you already migrate to new zealand ,but you still invest in KLSE stock market ? why ?
becoz here got so many undervalued stock ?

Malaysia is always my home, and KRTU is my home course. When I play golf at KRTU, i know where I should tee off to. after that I know which club to use, where to hit best etc, as I know where the hazards are, and how the green is sloping etc.

When I go out of town to play, I always don't get good scores.

Posted by LangeSohneGlashutte > Jun 25, 2015 04:28 PM | Report Abuse
Hi, KC. I love reading all of your sharing on value investing as well as your detailed and intelligent analysis. I believe it will need experience,practice and time to get at least an inch closer to your skill. Good job and keep educating us as it is a noble thing to do.
Meanwhile, I'd love to know your opinion on this company called Cypark. As we can see today a lot of big companies in the world( well maybe this is generalization) are building big solar farms(well according to mainstream financial news I read) cuz they believe that'll be the future of energy. Going back to Cypark, it has quite substantial size of solar farm and other renewable energy investment. So what is your overall opinion on Cypark? (the fundamental, moat, risk, ROE, etc)


Hi LangeSohneGlashutte, first thanks for your compliment. If you read my this article well, you will know what kind of investor I am. I like to invest in company with proven history of profitability, cash flow and healthy balance sheet. I emphasize taking of downside first and let the upside takes care of itself. I especially like to invest in them when they are selling cheap.

Is it a value trap? I don't think so. Its price is not beaten down, but just that the price has not moved to its intrinsic value. I still get more than 4% dividend yield every year. Value investing takes time, sometimes even years to get rewarded.

to me a value trap is a company that appears cheap because its stock price has recently fallen, but which is still expensive relative to intrinsic value. This doesn't apply to Kfima according to my analysis.

What about Cypark? Unfortunately I am just a small time retail investor, and I really don't know many companies. But one thing I am very sure of myself is I have to have some numbers before I put my money in a stock. I don't invest base on rosy future projection. If you want to know what I mean, the book by James Montier, "Value Investing" is a good reference with all the historical research data.

Posted by NinjaInPyjamas > Jun 24, 2015 08:52 PM | Report Abuse
KC, what is yr thought on fimacorp? Its EPV and plantatn growth prospect vs kfima?


Ninja,

My thought is expressed here when you asked there:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/78742.jsp

You may consider the opinion of valuelurker above

Posted by LangeSohneGlashutte > Jun 25, 2015 04:49 PM | Report Abuse
Wow KC, you wrote this nearly 52 weeks ago, and today FGVB price is 1.74! Seems like you are able to detect company's doomsday! You are da real sifu! Btw do you happen to master some sort of financial forensic/engineering to detect any red flag in company? Do u mind suggesting any good books/articles on that matter.
Thanks.

You do see some value of my article here, thanks.

This article was actually an actual email sent to an old friend of mine who wanted to buy big, very big in this stock FGVB at that time, may be using margin financing some more. I gave him this opinion as I saw it but I didn't hear a word from him. Recently only I realized he is angry with me from another friend of mine, and from one article he wrote.

But why ah?

Yes, I have a book to recommend to you about financial shenanigans here:

"Financial Shenanigans" by Howard Schilit

Posted by winwin2 > Jun 24, 2015 09:37 AM | Report Abuse
Mr.Koon is happy man.all Mr.Koon critics silenced after report especially kcchong.need go hiding after many articles bashing vs overvalued.Mr.Koon entrepreneur experience proof everything.thank you Mr.Koon.


Hi winwin2, (why 2 and where is winwin1?).

kcchong is still around. No, I didn't go hiding, but instead more articles to share with you. Read here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/78867.jsp

Did I do "basing" on VS in any of my seven articles about VS? How did I do it? Please elaborate. What are your comments specifically?

Am I going to be "chased" away just because I have some views which are different from you?

Posted by NinjaInPyjamas > Jun 23, 2015 10:50 PM | Report Abuse
KC, what is yr thought on fimacorp?
Which has better EPV?


My thought on fimacorp in term of company business is the same as my thought my Kumpulan fima here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/78580.jsp

But you have to look at the price. if the price is right, I think it is a good investment. Many people can't differentiate what is price, and what is value.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/45032.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/75985.jsp

Dear moneyface88,

Here is my response to you.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/78867.jsp