Posted by Flintstones > 2015-06-17 19:23 | Report Abuse

Yawn. This kfima has been undervalued for how many years? To the learned investors, we know clearly this is a value trap. Kcchong if you wanna hold, you cancontinue to hold until the cow comes home ok

Posted by gbk5566 > 2015-06-17 20:25 | Report Abuse

Good write up.Thank you, Mr. Chong.

Posted by cpo_ > 2015-06-17 20:56 | Report Abuse

No chance for KFima to reach RM 2.50? At least FGV has gone up to RM 4 last year or even RM 5 2 years ago. Buying FGV now(RM 1.68) can make 138% gain if climb to RM 4 or 198% gain if reach RM 5.

Posted by chonghai > 2015-06-17 23:35 | Report Abuse

Chance of FGV reaching RM 4 is less likely than KFIMA reaching RM 3.

Posted by NOBY > 2015-06-18 00:11 | Report Abuse

Posted by cpo_ > Jun 17, 2015 08:56 PM | Report Abuse

No chance for KFima to reach RM 2.50? At least FGV has gone up to RM 4 last year or even RM 5 2 years ago. Buying FGV now(RM 1.68) can make 138% gain if climb to RM 4 or 198% gain if reach RM 5.

This is called anchoring a common pitfall in behavioral finance. Your mind is anchored on the previous price of FGV thinking that it will rebound to the high and that current price is a great bargain. In the first place, you must understand if the drop in FGV price is actually justified or supported by weakening fundamentals.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/behavioral_finance/behavioral4.asp

Posted by cpo_ > 2015-06-18 03:53 | Report Abuse

However FGV(and likewise KFima) business is not dependant on one customer as suggested in the article. Its fortune is dependant on CPO price and oil palm output(which can be affected by flood).

For instance, suppose that XYZ stock had very strong revenue in the last year, causing its share price to shoot up from $25 to $80. Unfortunately, one of the company's major customers, who contributed to 50% of XYZ's revenue, had decided not to renew its purchasing agreement with XYZ. This change of events causes a drop in XYZ's share price from $80 to $40.

Posted by cpo_ > 2015-06-18 04:04 | Report Abuse

However FGV(and likewise KFima) business is not dependant on one customer as suggested in the article. Its fortune is dependant on CPO price and oil palm output(which can be affected by flood). In FGV case it is further complicated by LLA(agreement) which cause wild swing in profit.

For instance, suppose that XYZ stock had very strong revenue in the last year, causing its share price to shoot up from $25 to $80. Unfortunately, one of the company's major customers, who contributed to 50% of XYZ's revenue, had decided not to renew its purchasing agreement with XYZ. This change of events causes a drop in XYZ's share price from $80 to $40.

Posted by cpo_ > 2015-06-18 04:13 | Report Abuse

One more question. Do people really invest base on profit as someone said. Why China stocks are ignored?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-06-18 09:46 | Report Abuse

Posted by cpo_ > Jun 17, 2015 08:56 PM | Report Abuse
No chance for KFima to reach RM 2.50? At least FGV has gone up to RM 4 last year or even RM 5 2 years ago. Buying FGV now(RM 1.68) can make 138% gain if climb to RM 4 or 198% gain if reach RM 5.

cpo, as you are interested in FGVB, this article of mine, "How to spot a lemon" written less than a year ago to a friend of mine may interest you.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/66355.jsp

I always encouraged market players to consider the value of a company in investing rather than every time just looking at share price movement and guess what it would be tomorrow, next week or next month.

Posted by NinjaInPyjamas > 2015-06-24 20:52 | Report Abuse

KC, what is yr thought on fimacorp? Its EPV and plantatn growth prospect vs kfima?

Posted by valuelurker > 2015-06-25 10:06 | Report Abuse

Fima Corp is a better pick. Holding company discount applies here. In the end, it's about opportunity costs - how long are you willing to wait for kfima to realise or approach its value? Yes, it is a value stock, but unlike Buffett, you do not have the capability to buy the whole company up, and reap its returns in the form of dividends or breaking the company up and selling them off, thereby realising value

Posted by LangeSohneGlashutte > 2015-06-25 16:28 | Report Abuse

Hi, KC. I love reading all of your sharing on value investing as well as your detailed and intelligent analysis. I believe it will need experience,practice and time to get at least an inch closer to your skill. Good job and keep educating us as it is a noble thing to do.

Meanwhile, I'd love to know your opinion on this company called Cypark. As we can see today a lot of big companies in the world( well maybe this is generalization) are building big solar farms(well according to mainstream financial news I read) cuz they believe that'll be the future of energy. Going back to Cypark, it has quite substantial size of solar farm and other renewable energy investment. So what is your overall opinion on Cypark? (the fundamental, moat, risk, ROE, etc)

Thanks.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-06-25 17:51 | Report Abuse

Posted by NinjaInPyjamas > Jun 24, 2015 08:52 PM | Report Abuse
KC, what is yr thought on fimacorp? Its EPV and plantatn growth prospect vs kfima?


Ninja,

My thought is expressed here when you asked there:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/78742.jsp

You may consider the opinion of valuelurker above

Posted by citychew_1886 > 2015-06-26 03:11 | Report Abuse

Hi KC , i like the way and the formula you analyst the stock , as i know you already migrate to new zealand ,but you still invest in KLSE stock market ? why ?
becoz here got so many undervalued stock ?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-06-26 10:08 | Report Abuse

Posted by LangeSohneGlashutte > Jun 25, 2015 04:28 PM | Report Abuse
Hi, KC. I love reading all of your sharing on value investing as well as your detailed and intelligent analysis. I believe it will need experience,practice and time to get at least an inch closer to your skill. Good job and keep educating us as it is a noble thing to do.
Meanwhile, I'd love to know your opinion on this company called Cypark. As we can see today a lot of big companies in the world( well maybe this is generalization) are building big solar farms(well according to mainstream financial news I read) cuz they believe that'll be the future of energy. Going back to Cypark, it has quite substantial size of solar farm and other renewable energy investment. So what is your overall opinion on Cypark? (the fundamental, moat, risk, ROE, etc)


Hi LangeSohneGlashutte, first thanks for your compliment. If you read my this article well, you will know what kind of investor I am. I like to invest in company with proven history of profitability, cash flow and healthy balance sheet. I emphasize taking of downside first and let the upside takes care of itself. I especially like to invest in them when they are selling cheap.

Is it a value trap? I don't think so. Its price is not beaten down, but just that the price has not moved to its intrinsic value. I still get more than 4% dividend yield every year. Value investing takes time, sometimes even years to get rewarded.

to me a value trap is a company that appears cheap because its stock price has recently fallen, but which is still expensive relative to intrinsic value. This doesn't apply to Kfima according to my analysis.

What about Cypark? Unfortunately I am just a small time retail investor, and I really don't know many companies. But one thing I am very sure of myself is I have to have some numbers before I put my money in a stock. I don't invest base on rosy future projection. If you want to know what I mean, the book by James Montier, "Value Investing" is a good reference with all the historical research data.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-06-26 11:24 | Report Abuse

Posted by citychew_1886 > Jun 26, 2015 03:11 AM | Report Abuse
Hi KC , i like the way and the formula you analyst the stock , as i know you already migrate to new zealand ,but you still invest in KLSE stock market ? why ?
becoz here got so many undervalued stock ?

Malaysia is always my home, and KRTU is my home course. When I play golf at KRTU, i know where I should tee off to. after that I know which club to use, where to hit best etc, as I know where the hazards are, and how the green is sloping etc.

When I go out of town to play, I always don't get good scores.

Posted by kakashit > 2015-08-10 11:08 | Report Abuse

all becoz of cheap oil price lo, what can Kfima do? It cannot control the oil price what, KLK IOI also cannot la

more n more palm tree will be matured in Sabah Sarawak n Indonesia, supply can only be more, cannot be less, population growth take times to compete with the supply of oil.